VOLATILITY: FRIEND OR ENEMY? YOU DECIDE!

VOLATILITY: FRIEND OR ENEMY? YOU DECIDE! Jared Morgan INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division Kansas Farm Bureau -- Young Farmers & Ranchers Conference January 25-27, 2019 Manhattan, KS Part 1

DISCLOSURES The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or swaps may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc., a member of the National Futures Association ( NFA ) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) as a futures commission merchant. All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets, LLC ( IFM ), a member of the NFA and provisionally registered with the CFTC as a swap dealer. IFM s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an Eligible Contract Participant ( ECP ) and who have been accepted as customers of IFM. This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc., or IFM, as noted in this presentation. Neither the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. nor IFM is responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoints of the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. or IFM. All forecasting statements made within this material represent the opinions of the author unless otherwise noted. Factual information believed to reliable, was used to formulate these statements of opinion; but we cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information being relied upon. Accordingly, these statements do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints employed by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. or IFM. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts. No assurance or guarantee is made that these forecasts will be achieved. Any examples given are provided for illustrative purposes only, and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. Copyright 2019. All rights reserved.

VOLATILITY: THE EMOTIONAL ROLLER COASTER 3

Volatility Value representing the likelihood for change in: Pace of price movement Range of price movement Statistically generated value MEASURE OF RISK

How do you manage volatility (the measure of risk)? You can t! You have to manage the risk, not the volatility. 5

How do you manage volatility (the measure of risk)? Lets Change the way we think? You can t! You have to manage the risk, not the volatility. 6

Dealing with Normal Risk Exposure Buildings & Facilities How do we get Insurance? $$ Pay for it $$ Equipment Machinery and Trucks Insurance Training Service Plans Family and Employees Who pays for Insurance? Who likes paying for Insurance? Everyone Nobody Health and Safety WHY DO WE DO IT?? We have to, it is Essential

Essential for What?

Price Risk Incidence November 2018 Soybeans

-What are Opportunity Robbing Factors? YOURSELF!!

Volatility 90 80 Monthly Historic Corn Volatility January 2009-January 2019 Source: Bloomberg What Happened in the Summer Months? 70 60 Percent Volatility 50 40 30 20 10 0 Volatility & Seasonality

60 Monthly Historic Volatility - KC Wheat January 2009-January 2019 Source: Bloomberg Do you see any similarities? 40 30 20 10 60 0 50 Percent Volatility Percent Volatility 50 40 30 20 10 0 Monthly Historic Volatility - Chicago Wheat January 2009-January 2019 Source: Bloomberg

Monthly Historic Volatility Chicago/KC Wheat January 2008-October 2018 Source: Bloomberg 90 CORRELATION 80 70 Percent Volatility 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Chicago Wheat KC Wheat

Monthly Historic Volatility Heating Oil Diesel January 2009 January 2019 Source: Bloomberg Percent Volatility 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percent Volatility 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Monthly Historic Volatility Gasoline RBOB January 2009-January 2019 Source: Bloomberg

Monthly Historic Volatility - Live Cattle Jan 2008-October 2018 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Bloomberg 40 Monthly Historic Volatility - Feeder Cattle 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Monthly Historic Volatility - Lean Hogs 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan 2008-October 2018 Source: Bloomberg Jan 2008-October 2018 Source: Bloomberg

60 50 Monthly Historic Volatility-Soybeans January 2009 January 2019 Source: Bloomberg 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Monthly Historic Volatility-Soybean Meal January 2009-January 2019 Source: Bloomberg 40 30 20 10 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Monthly Historic Volatility-Soybean Oil January 2009-January 2019 Source: Bloomberg

Volatility Example: KC Wheat Futures trading at $5.00 Compare Market Volatility: 20%, 30%, 40% Annualized Volatility 20% 30% 40% 68% Probability Price Range $4.00 - $6.00 $3.50 - $6.50 $3.00 - $7.00 At what volatility level is your risk the greatest? At what volatility level is your opportunity greatest? Note: 2 Standard Deviations is 95% Probability and 3 Standard Deviations is 99% probability

What Encourages Market Volatility? Uncertainty Price Basis

Basis Key to Successful Hedging Local Price Quote Global Benchmark Price Quote Local Cash Relative to Futures Cash Price Futures Price Basis How many basis levels should you track?

Basis Movement & Opportunity +30 Strengthen Cash Gains Relative* to Futures More positive or Less negative Benefits Short Hedgers Commodity Sellers +20 +10 0-10 -20 Weaken Cash Declines Relative* to Futures Less positive or More negative Benefits Long Hedgers Commodity Buyers -30 *Basis can strengthen or weaken regardless of the price direction 20

Producers should be a Cash Minus Futures Seasonal Trends S tudent Volatility O f BASIS Location B asis Quality Seller wants Stronger Buyer wants Weaker

Types of Market Risk Global Higher No change Futures Price Lower

Types of Market Risk Local Stronger No change Cash Basis Weaker

Types of Market Risk Global Futures Price Higher No change Lower Local Cash Basis Stronger No change Weaker

Hedgers Tools To Manage Price Risk Futures Options ObligationsLocked-in Buying and Selling Levels Rights to Buy or Sell at Price levels with Opportunity for Improvement OTC* Cash Contracts Creative Financial Products with Pricing Flexibility Variety of Contracts with Physical Delivery Requirements *OTC products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an Eligible Contract Participant ( ECP ) and who have been accepted as customers of IFM.

Questions?

VOLATILITY: FRIEND OR ENEMY? YOU DECIDE! Jared Morgan INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division Kansas Farm Bureau -- Young Farmers & Ranchers Conference January 25-27, 2019 Manhattan, KS Part 2

Volatility Value representing the likelihood for change in: Pace of price movement Range of price movement Statistically generated value MEASURE OF RISK

What Encourages Market Volatility? Uncertainty Price Basis

How do you manage volatility (the measure of risk)? You can t! You have to manage the risk, not the volatility. 32

How do you manage volatility (the measure of risk)? Lets Change the way we think? You can t! You have to manage the risk, not the volatility. 33

Where do Commodity Prices Come From? Wheat Corn Oilseeds Feeder Cattle Live Cattle Coffee & Cocoa Futures Natural Gas Flour Interest Rates & FX Gasoline & Diesel Lean Hogs Distillers Grain Milk

Economic Functions of Futures Price Discovery Futures Markets Risk Management

Price Discovery: Supply & Demand Prices are Discovered Prices are NOT set by the Exchange Closest form of perfect competition Two-way Price Impact Transparent Prices

True Hedge Consists of Two Parts Local Merchant Futures, Options or OTC Swaps

Hedge Concepts Fact: Most cash markets and futures markets move up and down together Not necessarily in equal amounts Relationship between a cash & a futures price: Correlation Hedge Positions Opposite positions in Cash market and Futures market Hedge Results Loss in one market is offset by a gain in the other market Regardless of price direction, the result is the same! The TRUE hedge result is the COMBINED RESULTS of the Cash and Risk Management position(s)

Futures Margin Performance Bond Required for all Buyers AND Sellers of Futures Funds deposited in your account to Guarantee your position Not a Down Payment Marked to Market Daily Quoted in Dollars per Contract Margin amounts vary by: Commodity Price Level Market Volatility Margin requirements are small relative to the contract value Provides Leverage

Short Hedger Mentality Test 1600 1500 1400 Nearby KC Wheat Prices Source: Bloomberg Where is the greatest potential for price risk for a KC Wheat Seller? Point A or B Futures ( /bu) 1300 1200 1100 1000 A 900 800 700 B

Short Hedge to Protect Production Value Initial Positions Cash Futures Basis Long Short Long

Short KC Wheat @ $5.30/bu Scenario #1: Falling Market & Basis Unchanged CASH FUTURES BASIS Jan 25 Cash Fwd. Quote @ $4.90/bushel (information only) Short July19 @ $5.30/bu. - 0.40 (under) July 10 Sell Wheat @ $4.20/bu. Buy July19 @ $4.60/bu. - 0.40 (under) $0.70/bu. Gain No change Sell Wheat Futures gain Net Selling Price* $ 4.20/bu. + 0.70/bu. $ 4.90/bu. *Examples do not include commissions or fees and basis numbers are theoretical

Short KC Wheat @ $5.30/bu Scenario #2: Rising Market & Basis Unchanged CASH FUTURES BASIS Jan 25 Cash Fwd. Quote @ $4.90/bushel (information only) Short Jul19 @ $5.30/bu. - 0.40 (under) July 10 Sell Wheat @ $5.30/bu. Buy Jul19 @ $5.70/bu. - 0.40 (under) $0.40/bu. Loss No change Sell Wheat Futures Loss Net Selling Price* $ 5.30/bu. - 0.40/bu. $ 4.90/bu. *Examples do not include commissions or fees and basis numbers are theoretical

Short KC Wheat @ $5.30/bu Scenario #3: Falling Market & Basis Strengthened CASH FUTURES BASIS Jan 25 Cash Fwd. Quote @ $4.90/bushel (information only) Short Jul19 @ $5.30/bu. - 0.40 (under) July 10 Sell Wheat @ $4.75/bu. Buy Jul19 @ $5.00/bu. -0.25 (under) $0.30/bu. Gain 0.15 Basis Gain Sell Wheat Futures gain Net Selling Price* $ 4.75/bu. + 0.30/bu. $ 5.05/bu. *Examples do not include commissions or fees and basis numbers are theoretical

Short July19 KC Wheat @ $5.30/bushel (Contract size = 5,000 bu) Educational Example only Examples do not include commissions and fees. No Upside Opportunity 7.30 Lock-in Price Level Locked-in Futures Price Level 5.30 Unlimited Downside Protection 3.30 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved.

Would You like to have Protection Against Negative Price Levels & Opportunity To Capture Better Price Levels

Are Options Difficult? Call Option Formula

Futures versus Options (Review) Futures Convey Obligations Options Convey Rights

Option Types CALL Contains the right to BUY PUT Contains the right to SELL

Option Components Buyer holder Seller writer or grantor Underlying Commodity a futures contract Strike Price exercise price Expiration Date rights expire Premium price, cost, or value of rights

Premium Components Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value

Premium Components Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value Intrinsic Value Strike Price Futures Price

Premium Components Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value Time Value Time Volatility Interest Supply & Demand

Premium Components Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value Time Value Time Volatility Intrinsic Value Strike Price Futures Price Interest Supply & Demand

Time Value Curve Decreases at an increasing rate Time value is zero at option expiration Time value Cents/bushel Dollars/cwt. Cents/pound Days to expiration 0

What Can Happen to Options Offset Options Exercise (Option Buyer Only) Expire

Closing Out an Option Position Premium Intrinsic Value Time Value Offset Capture Entire Premium (Intrinsic and Time Value) Exercise Capture only the Intrinsic Value (Forfeit the Time Value) Expiration Option value is Always ZERO at Expiration Don t ever forget about your option positions Recovered Time Value lowers the cost of the strategy

Long Put

Producer Sell Strategy Long Put Establishes a minimum sale price level Protected against lower price levels at time of cash sale Can benefit from higher price levels at time of cash sale Costs of this strategy Must pay the option premium at the time of the option purchase No margin requirements Brokerage commission Basis Impact at time of cash sale Stronger basis will improve (raise) sale price Weaker basis will decrease sale price Equation: Expected Minimum Sale Price = Put Strike price + Expected Basis - Premium

Long $5.50 July19 Put @ $0.35 July KC Wheat trading at $5.50 Educational Example only Examples do not include commissions and fees. Full Upside Opportunity 7.50 Upside Opportunity above $5.85 Call Strike = $5.50 Futures 5.85 5.50 Minimum Sale Price=$5.15 5.15 Unlimited Downside Protection 3.50 2015 CME Group. All rights reserved.

How Many Of You? LOVE to Lose Money?

Producers Use of Options Producer (Sale-Side) Application Current Market Conditions New-crop Soybean Sales November trading at $9.20/bushel $9.20 November Soybean Put Option Premium @: $0.40/bushel Expected local basis for November Soybean Delivery: $-0.80 (under) WOW! That s Expensive. Strategy Long (buy) Nov19 Soybean Put @ $0.40/bushel Contract Notes: Soybean Contract Size 5,000 Bushels Soybean Futures trading ceases on the business day prior to the 15 th calendar day Soybean Options expire on the last Friday preceding at least 2 business days prior to the first business day of the corresponding futures contract month. *Theoretical examples do not include commissions and fees

Scenario One MARKET DROPS! Late October Market Conditions November Soybeans drop to $8.00/bushel $9.20 Nov19 Put is worth $1.20/bushel Your local Soybean Basis is -.80 November WELL! I guess that $0.40 wasn t so expensive Results: Offset your option hedge Sell Soybeans Locally for $7.20 per bushel Offset (sell back) $9.20 November Soybean Put and receive $1.20/bushel Profit on Long put Strategy = $0.80/bushel ($1.20 - $0.40 initial premium) Risk Management Result: $7.20 Cash Price + $0.80/bushel Put Gain *Theoretical examples do not include commissions and fees

Scenario Two MARKET SOARS! Late October Market Conditions November Futures @$10.50/bushel $9.20 Nov19 Soybean Put Option Premium@ $0.00/bushel Your local Soybean basis at -$0.80 November OUCH! What happened to my premium? Results: Offset your option hedge Sell Soybeans Locally at $9.70/bushel ($10.50 - $0.80 Nov. basis) $9.20 Put expires worthless LOSS on Long Put Strategy = $0.40/bushel ($0.40 initial premium -.00 premium at expiry) Risk Management Result: ($9.70 Cash Price - $0.40/bushel Put Loss) *Theoretical examples do not include commissions and fees

Market Drops to $8.00/bushel Put PROFIT: $0.80/bushel Net Buying Price = ($7.20 cash + $0.80/bushel Put Profit) = $8.00/bushel Market Climbs to $10.50/bushel Put LOSS: $0.40/bushel Net Buying Price = ($9.70 cash - $0.40/bushel Put Loss) Now, how many of you LOVE TO LOSE MONEY? *Theoretical examples do not include commissions and fees $9.30/bushel

Summary of Option Pricing REMEMBER HEDGING CONCEPTS! An Option is only Part of Your Hedge Don t forget your Cash Market position Loss in Options is Offset by Improved Cash Market Position Option Premium loss may result in better NET position Cash Market Options

Volatility: Friend or Enemy? Volatility Summary Volatility is a Measure of Risk Increased Volatility = Increased Risk Increased Volatility = Increased Opportunity Volatility Does not Discriminate Creates Selling Opportunities Creates Buying Opportunities There are strategies to manage the risk/opportunity that volatility creates. YOU DECIDE! 68

For More Info & Assistance Contact INTL FCStone Financial Inc. Risk Management Associate INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division Telephone: (816) 410-3359 Email: Peter.Fish@INTLFCstone.com Education Specialist INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division Telephone: (312) 348-5949 Email: Jared.Morgan@INTLFCStone.com Pete Fish Jared Morgan Thank You! 69