China Citic Bank - H Share

Similar documents
Charting the Course. Can MXAPJ Sustain Jan Rally? Rotational Opportunities Best; Asia Technicals Strategy

Brazil Economic Outlook for 2013

Li & Fung. Neutral. Changes in Wal-Mart buying agency agreement, marginally positive - ALERT

Kerry Properties. Neutral. Short-term trading opportunities from Conditional Dividend - ALERT

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

Upwards and Onwards: China s Outbound M&A

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co. Ltd.

Asia Analyst Focus List

Timing of Equity Risk Premia

Globe Union Industrial Corp

Baoshan Iron & Steel - A

Pico Far East Holdings Limited

Chalco. Divestment of iron ore asset a positive move - ALERT

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

Comments to the IMF Presentation

Jun-06. Jul-06. May-06. JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)(Formerly known as J.P. Morgan Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.)

CDS Market Update: New 2014 CDS Definitions and Market Infrastructure

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)

Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

Maritime(Transportation

What do equity markets think about AASB 17?

Notes on the outlook, for presentation to the NY Fed EAP Michael Feroli Chief U.S. Economist

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

Business & Education Services

NAV FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Ryanair. Neutral. FQ2:15 Results - 60 Second Update - ALERT

IT and BPO Services. Takeaways from an Industry Conference - Positive

Emerging Markets Bond Index Global CORE (EMBIG CORE) Product Overview

China Oriental. Overweight HK$ January 2007 Price Target: HK$2.69. Attractive valuations

Grupo Bimbo. Overweight. 4Q09 Results - Even Sweeter Than Expected - ALERT

China Retail Sales May 2014

Managed Care. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of 2016 MA Landscape File HUM & AET Leading Rate Increases

China oil and gas. Independent refiners to add to capacity glut with access to crude oil imports and expansions this year

E M D E B T : P R O V E N R E S I L I E N C E T H R O U G H T H E C R E D I T C Y C L E

Beijing Enterprises Water

China oil and gas. Diesel demand rebounded strongly in June; natural gas supplies grew 12% Y/Y in 1H13

China Steel sector. End September steel output edges higher

J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Risk-Aware Bond Index

Reserve diversification without the yen has limited value

WCT Berhad. Overweight. Post 3QFY12 results analysts' briefing highlights - ALERT

Sound Global Limited. Neutral. Resumption of trading and PT revision

Global Credit Strategy 2017 Soundbites

4Q preview: expecting a recovery of mobile game and stable PC game revenue; mobile ads is the key focal point

Pacific Basin Shipping

Philippine Banks. Recent efforts from Pag-IBIG not a game-changer. JPM-pp1

Integrated Oils. Coverage Update

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.

Airlines. Global and AsiaPac airlines' passenger traffic growth remain solid while cargo demand has bottomed out

Hemaraj Land & Development PCL

Tsingtao Brewery - H. Underweight. Decelerating core brand volume growth presents downside risk to margins

Europcar Groupe S.A. Auto Rental Trade Idea: Swap out of the FRNs due 2013 into the 9.75% Sr. Sec. Notes due 2017

China Overseas Land & Investment

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Company Ltd.

FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Cathay Pacific. Neutral. Pax performance beat SIA's; end Oct cargo pick-up is positive for CX and KAL which are the world's #2 and #3 largest

China Auto Drivers. Volume up, inventory down - again

Weg. Underweight. Update on Energy Concessions and Establishing Dec 2014 PT

Li Ning Co Ltd. Neutral. FY15 Result - Analysing Positives/Negatives of Commentary Following 7% Intraday Move

Gerdau. Earnings recovery to be slower than expected; Downgrading to Neutral

Shanghai Pharmaceutical - H

October Global Equity Derivative and Quantitative Strategies

Healthcare - Asian Year Ahead 2013

ITC Limited. Overweight. 1Q FY13: Good earnings delivery led by healthy cigarette EBIT growth

Eye on China Consumers - MNC View Series 94

China Auto Drivers. Nov sales prediction+ Dongfeng Motor- still net cash in 2013?

D3 Merger Talks Surface

Is inflation dead? A discussion

Egypt: How to reconcile structural reforms with short-term priorities?

Equity Strategy. Mislav Matejka, CFA AC. Emmanuel Cau, CFA AC. Prabhav Bhadani. Aditi Balachandar, CFA. Global Equity Strategy December 2016

PD F&D and RODD PD F&D and RODD Increased; Data Suggest the Need for Higher Natural Gas Prices

Fairfax Media Limited

China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd.

2011 SECURITIES LENDING OUTLOOK

Equity Strategy. Global Equity Strategy January 2017

FY09A FY10A FY11E FY12E

PAX Global Technology Ltd

Semiconductors. August Semi Sales - QTD Trends Remain Constructive - Maintaining 8% Industry Growth Outlook in 2014

Fu Shou Yuan International

Xinyi Glass. Overweight. Lifting PT to HK$12 - Winner from trend of lower energy costs

Ryanair. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Overweight

Gamuda. Overweight. 3QFY13 results review positive momentum continues

Telecom & Networking Equipment/IT Hardware

Earnings sustainability and asset quality remain under pressure

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of VINCENT COVRIG at CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY NORTHRI

Corrected Note (See page 11 for details). Note originally published 23 May 2011.

Semiconductors. Agenda for J.P. Morgan's 13th Annual CES Technology Forum on January 6, 2015

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

U S N A T U R A L G A S F U N D A M E N T A L S

KPJ Healthcare Berhad (KPJ MK)

SECTOR: Banking HSI: 22,561 PRICE:HK$5.37

30 NOVEMBER 2007 THE VIEW FROM THE TRENCHES. J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Stephen Dulake AC (44-20)

China Coal Energy. 1Q14 results miss - Guidance for 1H14 to fall

Shipyards & Oil Services

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Beijing Capital International Airport

This research has been prepared by Merrill Lynch as part of its services to its clients, and is intended to be used only by those clients when

Market Access. M&A Securities. Results Review 1Q16. Malayan Banking Berhad. Hampered by Loan Loss. Monday, May 30, 2016 HOLD (TP: RM9.

Shifting Tides. Maritime Shipping Weekly. Oil Tankers

Transcription:

China Citic Bank - H Share Weak Result Even Before Large Provision Neutral 0998.HK, 998 HK Price: HK$4.02 Price Target: HK$5.00 CITIC Bank delivered a disappointing 3Q result, with net profit of Rmb7.9bn, -15% Y/Y and -27% Q/Q. NIMs continued to compress, falling 4bps Q/Q on top of a -36bps decline in 1H12, but the real miss here was provisions, which came in at 105bps for 3Q12. This follows a 2Q result where provisions were indisputably too low, at just 6bps despite NPLs rising +14% Q/Q (3Q: +2%). Overall, this provision top-up was likely overdue, and helps boost reserve/ loans from 1.67% to 1.83%, with NPL coverage rising to 306%. We also question the speed of balance sheet expansion at CITIC, with loans up +16% Y/Y & assets up +28%, reflecting growth in interbank/reverse repos. Growth in non-lending credit contributes volatility, but more importantly it consumes core capital, which stagnated in 3Q12 at 10.1%. With shares trading at just 0.7x book & 5x fwd earnings, the bar is set low for an upside surprise, but we struggle to find one. We think fwd ROEs compress well below 20%, remain N. NIMs declined 4bps Q/Q, and have now fallen for 4 consecutive quarters by -41bps in total. Volatility in quarterly results is partly driven by the large swings in interbank borrowing, which moved +274%/-35%/+22%/-14% in just the last 4 quarters alone, making it hard to forecast future NII. Fee growth decelerated sharply this quarter, coming in flat Q/Q, albeit still up +19% Y/Y vs. +36% in 2Q12. Part of that Y/Y growth is due to the bank s push into bank cards, where growth was +72% Y/Y in 1H12 results, as well as settlement & agency fees, which also grew +68% Y/Y in 1H. Asset quality showed modest signs of deterioration, with NPLs up +2% Q/Q. This makes the large provision top-up of 105bps a bit of a surprise in terms of timing, with most banks having done similar one-offs in late 2011. High credit costs contributed to an already weak pre-provision profit, which was flat Q/Q and +4% Y/Y. Cost control will be a key issue going forward in light of weaker rev growth. In 3Q, CITIC revs +10% Y/Y vs. costs +23%. Overall results were disappointing, with NIM compression, decelerating fees, and rising NPLs the key issues. The one-off provision raises reserves/loans to 1.83%, so in some sense it was expected, with the rest of the sector well above 2%. But given volatility in balance sheet & earnings, with lean capital & stretched liquidity (LDR 72%) we remain Neutral. China Citic Bank - H Share (Reuters: 0998.HK, Bloomberg: 998 HK) FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E Operating Profit (Rmb mn) 21,884 33,944 48,797 57,369 58,644 61,409 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 14,320 21,509 30,819 33,929 31,496 32,167 Cash EPS (Rmb) 0.37 0.55 0.66 0.73 0.67 0.69 DPS (Rmb) 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 EPS growth (%) 8.0% 50.2% 19.5% 10.1% (7.2%) 2.1% ROE 12.9% 19.3% 20.9% 18.1% 14.8% 13.6% P/E (x) 8.8 5.9 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.7 BVPS (Rmb) 2.63 3.08 3.73 4.29 4.80 5.32 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Dividend Yield 2.7% 4.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% Fully Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.37 0.55 0.66 0.73 0.67 0.69 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. China Asia Financials AC Helen Ye (852) 2800-8513 helen.zj.ye@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Price Performance 5.0 4.6 HK$ 4.2 3.8 3.4 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 0998.HK share price (HK$) H-SHARE (rebased) YTD 1m 3m 12m Abs -8.0% 9.2% 5.8% -5.4% Rel -15.5% 1.2% -2.3% -7.8% Company Data 52-week Range (HK$) 5.15-3.50 Market Cap (Rmb mn) 151,661 Market Cap ($ mn) 24,268 Shares O/S (mn) 46,787 Fiscal Year End Dec Price (HK$) 4.02 Date Of Price 29 Oct 12 3M - Avg daily value (HK$ 186.82 mn) 3m Avg. Daily Value ($ mn) 19.4 3mth Avg daily volume (mn) 48.26 H-SHARE 1,3790.13 Exchange Rate 9.61 See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-us analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.morganmarkets.com

Company Description P&L sensitivity metrics PPOP EPS Founded in 1987, China Citic Bank is one of the older and better-known banks among medium-sized joint-stock banks. Traditionally strong in large corporate banking and foreigncurrency business, Citic has been also very successful in retail banking in recent years. Currently, Citic is the 7th largest bank in China by total assets. The bank was listed on both Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong Stock Exchange in April 2007. As of June 2011, Citic had over 725 branch outlets operating in 93 cities. Net interest margin assumption (2.89%) impact (%) impact (%) Impact of each 10bps increase 5% 6% Asset growth assumption (4%) Impact of each 5 percentage points increase 6% 8% Non-interest income growth assumption (18.1%) Impact of each 5 percentage points increase 1% 1% Credit cost assumption (0.66%) Impact of each 10bps increase - -3% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Price target and valuation analysis Our PT (Dec-12, DDM-derived) of HK$5 implies a forward P/BV of 0.84x and P/E of 6.11x (FY13E). Loan Mix (2011) Cost of equity assumptions Discounted bills 3% Corporate 78% Risk free rate: 4.5% Market risk premium: 7.0% Cost of equity 13.8% Terminal g : 1.5% Fair P/B 0.90x PV of Terminal Value 3.67 PV of Dividends to 12E 0.44 Dec-12 fair value (Rmb) 4.58 Equity/assets 7% Source: Company data. Normalised ROE 13% EPS: J.P.Morgan vs consensus JPM Consensus Risks to our price target FY12E 0.73 0.71 Upside risk would come from better pricing power on mix shift, which FY13E 0.67 0.74 FY14E 0.69 0.83 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates. Table 1: Peer valuation comparison would lead to less NIM compression and a better outlook for earnings. We could also be too aggressive on credit costs if stimulus comes through, which would further boost loan & fee growth. A downside risk is if costs are higher than expected. Bank Bloomberg Price Rating Dec-12 Upside P/E P/BV Dividend Yield code (LC) PT FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E ICBC-A 601398 CH 3.81 OW 4.75 25% 6.0 6.1 1.2 1.1 5.3% 5.2% BoComm-H 3328 HK 5.72 OW 6.75 18% 5.6 6.6 0.9 0.8 2.3% 1.9% CCB-H 939 HK 5.79 OW 6.75 17% 6.4 6.3 1.2 1.1 3.5% 3.8% ICBC-H 1398 HK 5.12 OW 5.80 13% 6.5 6.6 1.3 1.1 3.2% 3.1% CMB-H 3968 HK 14.92 UW 14.25-4% 6.8 7.0 1.3 1.2 2.1% 2.1% PAB 000001 CH 2.72 N 3.20 18% 5.8 6.1 0.9 0.9 5.8% 6.0% BOC-A 601988 CH 10.12 N 11.75 16% 5.7 5.9 1.1 1.0 3.8% 3.9% CMB-A 600036 CH 6.03 N 6.00 0% 5.9 6.2 1.1 1.0 4.7% 4.6% Minsheng-A 600016 CH 3.34 N 3.75 12% 5.9 6.0 1.2 1.0 3.2% 2.9% ABC-H 1288 HK 3.17 N 3.75 18% 5.4 5.7 0.9 0.8 4.0% 4.1% BOC-H 3988 HK 4.02 N 5.00 24% 4.6 4.9 0.7 0.7 3.2% 3.3% Citic-H 998 HK 7.35 N 7.25-1% 5.7 6.1 1.1 0.9 3.1% 3.0% Minsheng-H 1988 HK 3.64 N 5.40 48% 5.2 4.2 0.8 0.7 3.4% 3.7% CQRB 3618 HK 3.81 OW 4.75 25% 6.0 6.1 1.2 1.1 5.3% 5.2% Source: Bloomberg. J.P. Morgan estimates Mortgage 13% Consumer 6% 2

Table 2: Details of 3Q12 result for Citic In Rmb mn except % and per share data FY11 FY12E % y/y 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Q/Q Y/Y Net interest income 65,106 75,747 16% 17,160 18,140 18,310 18,619 18,789 0.9% 9.5% Non-interest revenue 11,986 14,260 19% 2,996 3,461 3,413 3,829 3,322-13.2% 10.9% Net fee income 8,837 11,135 26% 2,306 2,633 2,627 2,778 2,753-0.9% 19.4% Total operating income 77,092 90,007 17% 20,156 21,601 21,723 22,448 22,111-1.5% 9.7% Operating expenses (28,381) (32,638) 15% (6,101) (9,121) (7,883) (7,933) (7,484) -5.7% 22.7% Pre-provisions op. profits 48,711 57,369 18% 14,055 12,480 13,840 14,515 14,627 0.8% 4.1% Loan loss provisioning (5,734) (10,198) 78% (1,812) (2,003) (2,216) (231) (4,098) 1674.0% 126.2% Other provisions (1,473) (1,421) -4% - (1,460) (10) (67) - Pre-tax profits 41,590 45,749 10% 12,263 9,004 11,606 14,270 10,571-25.9% -13.8% Income tax (10,746) (11,821) 10% (3,316) (2,377) (2,933) (3,358) (2,612) -22.2% -21.2% Attributable profit 30,819 33,929 10% 9,202 6,596 8,563 10,810 7,853-27.4% -14.7% EPS (restated) (RmB) 0.69 0.73 6% 0.21 0.14 0.18 0.23 0.17-27.4% -21.7% BVPS 3.73 4.38 18% 3.62 3.73 3.92 4.02 4.17 3.7% 15.2% Balance sheet Total liquid assets 1,066,141 764,618-28% 639,446 1,066,141 887,773 1,048,871 966,185-7.9% 51.1% Net loans & int. receivables 1,410,779 1,617,380 15% 1,363,554 1,410,779 1,451,369 1,509,692 1,572,281 4.1% 15.3% Investments 251,176 277,835 11% 235,682 251,176 280,444 316,807 332,427 4.9% 41.0% Total assets 2,765,881 2,881,811 4% 2,270,843 2,765,881 2,657,376 2,916,365 2,911,945-0.2% 28.2% Interbank funding 550,028 385,020-30% 147,249 550,028 358,094 436,393 375,750-13.9% 155.2% Customer deposits 1,968,051 2,217,607 13% 1,869,559 1,968,051 2,041,981 2,188,820 2,237,168 2.2% 19.7% Total Liabilities 2,587,100 2,676,770 3% 2,097,481 2,587,100 2,469,580 2,723,885 2,712,276-0.4% 29.3% Equity 174,496 205,041 18% 169,270 174,496 183,299 187,892 194,923 3.7% 15.2% DuPont analaysis NIM 3.00% 2.89% 3.13% 3.12% 3.01% 2.76% 2.72% Non IR/total rev. 15.5% 15.8% 14.9% 16.0% 15.7% 17.1% 15.0% Total rev./avg. assets 3.18% 3.19% 3.57% 3.32% 3.14% 3.08% 3.03% Cost/income 36.8% 36.3% 30.3% 42.2% 36.3% 35.3% 33.8% Cost/avg. assets 1.17% 1.16% 1.08% 1.40% 1.14% 1.09% 1.03% Operating ROAA 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Provisioning/loans -0.43% -0.66% -0.53% -0.58% -0.61% -0.06% -1.05% Loan/assets 55.4% 54.6% 60.7% 53.5% 52.6% 51.9% 53.8% Pre-tax ROAA 1.7% 1.6% 2.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% Tax rate 25.8% 25.8% 27.0% 26.4% 25.3% 23.5% 24.7% ROAA 1.27% 1.20% 1.63% 1.01% 1.29% 1.48% 1.08% RoRWA 1.81% 1.76% 2.39% 1.58% 2.03% 2.44% 1.69% Avg. equity/assets 6.1% 6.7% 6.7% 6.0% 6.5% 6.3% 6.6% ROAE 20.9% 17.9% 24.2% 16.8% 19.3% 23.6% 16.4% Impaired loan balance 8,541 12,617 8,306 8,541 8,271 9,393 9,610 2.3% 12.5% Impaired loan ratio 0.60% 0.77% 0.60% 0.60% 0.56% 0.61% 0.60% Impairment loans coverage 272% 252% 250% 272% 309% 273% 306% Provisioning/PPOP -11.8% -17.8% -13% -16% -16% -2% -28% Loan/deposit ratio 72.9% 74.4% 74.0% 72.9% 72.3% 70.1% 71.6% Loans/assets 51.8% 57.2% 61.0% 51.8% 55.6% 52.6% 55.0% Tier 1 (% ) 9.91% 10.28% 10.43% 9.91% 9.94% 10.05% 10.07% Total capital ratio (% ) 12.27% 12.72% 12.83% 12.27% 12.39% 13.44% 13.72% Source: Company data, JPMorgan estimates 3

China Citic Bank - H Share: Summary of Financials Income Statement Growth Rates Rmb in millions, year end Dec FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E NIM (as % of avg. assets) 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% Loans 45.9% 18.6% 13.4% 15.0% 14.0% Earning assets/assets 92.6% 94.9% 89.4% 93.0% 93.4% Deposits 30.6% 29.0% 13.7% 12.7% 13.2% Margins (as % of Avg. Assets) 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% Assets 34.5% 17.3% 32.9% 4.2% 12.6% Equity (13.7%) 16.9% 45.2% 15.0% 11.8% Net Interest Income 35,984 48,135 65,106 75,747 78,569 RWA 48.2% 25.2% 22.9% 13.0% 15.0% Total Non-Interest Income 5,031 8,447 12,072 14,260 16,629 Net Interest Income (3.7%) 33.8% 35.3% 16.3% 3.7% Fee Income 4,220 5,696 8,837 11,135 13,139 Non-Interest Income 11.7% 67.9% 42.9% 18.1% 16.6% Dealing Income 412 1,656 2,428 2,157 2,328 of which Fee Grth 13.4% 35.0% 55.1% 26.0% 18.0% Revenues (2.0%) 38.0% 36.4% 16.6% 5.8% Total operating revenues 41,015 56,582 77,178 90,007 95,199 Costs 10.1% 18.3% 25.4% 15.0% 12.0% Pre-Provision Profits (10.6%) 55.1% 43.8% 17.6% 2.2% Operating costs (19,131) (22,638) (28,381) (32,638) (36,555) Loan Loss Provisions (57.3%) 73.3% 35.3% 77.9% 43.3% Pre-Prov. Profits 21,884 33,944 48,797 57,369 58,644 Pre-Tax 9.0% 48.9% 44.9% 10.0% (7.2%) Provisions (2,446) (4,238) (5,734) (10,198) (14,612) Attributable Income 8.0% 50.2% 43.3% 10.1% (7.2%) Other Inc 0 0 0 0 0 EPS 8.0% 50.2% 19.5% 10.1% (7.2%) Other Exp. - - - - - DPS 4.1% 55.8% 19.5% 1.8% 0.9% Exceptionals 0 0 0 0 0 Associate 0 0 0 0 0 Balance Sheet Gearing FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Pre-tax 19,265 28,695 41,590 45,749 42,469 Loan/deposit 78.3% 72.0% 71.7% 72.9% 73.1% Tax (4,705) (6,916) (10,746) (11,821) (10,973) Investment/assets 13.7% 12.3% 10.7% 12.6% 16.5% Minorities (240) (270) (25) 0 0 Loan/Assets 58.0% 60.4% 55.7% 54.6% 57.6% Attributable Income 14,320 21,509 30,819 33,929 31,496 Customer deposits/liab. 80.5% 88.5% 76.1% 82.8% 83.3% LT debt/liabilities 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% Per Share Data CNY FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Asset Quality/Capital FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EPS 0.37 0.55 0.66 0.73 0.67 Loan loss reserves/loans (1.4%) (1.4%) (1.6%) (1.9%) (2.3%) DPS 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.17 NPLs/loans 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% Payout 24.0% 24.9% 24.9% 23.0% 25.0% Loan loss reserves/npls 142.7% 178.6% 242.9% 260.0% 214.4% Book value 2.63 3.08 3.73 4.29 4.80 Growth in NPLs (1.3%) (16.0%) 0.1% 47.7% 80.3% Fully Diluted Shares 39,033 39,033 46,787 46,787 46,787 Tier 1 Ratio 9.4% 8.6% 10.1% 10.3% 10.0% PPOP per share 0.56 0.87 1.04 1.23 1.25 Total CAR 10.7% 11.3% 12.3% 12.7% 12.4% Key Balance sheet Rmb in millions FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Du-Pont Analysis FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Net Loans 1,050,479 1,246,026 1,410,779 1,617,380 1,835,957 NIM (as % of avg. assets) 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% LLR (15,170) (18,219) (23,258) (31,762) (44,065) Earning assets/assets 92.6% 94.9% 89.4% 93.0% 93.4% Gross Loans 1,065,649 1,264,245 1,434,037 1,649,143 1,880,023 Margins (as % of Avg. Assets) 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% NPLs 10,157 8,533 8,541 12,617 22,749 Non-Int. Rev./ Revenues 12.3% 14.9% 15.6% 15.8% 17.5% Investments 206,146 268,872 251,045 458,190 555,158 Non IR/Avg. Assets 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Other earning assets 15,228 19,956 25,841 28,808 32,129 Revenue/Assets 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% Avg. IEA 1,433,377 1,829,344 2,167,788 2,624,853 2,862,124 Cost/Income 46.6% 40.0% 36.8% 36.3% 38.4% Goodwill 887 857 818 0 0 Cost/Assets 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Assets 1,775,031 2,081,314 2,765,881 2,881,811 3,243,689 Pre-Provision ROA 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% LLP/Loans (0.3%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.7%) (0.8%) Deposits 1,341,927 1,730,816 1,968,051 2,217,607 2,511,189 Loan/Assets 58.0% 60.4% 55.7% 54.6% 57.6% Long-term bond funding 21,177 45,644 33,730 35,873 38,743 Other Prov, Income/ Assets 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Borrowings 18,422 34,915 33,730 35,873 38,743 Operating ROA 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% Avg. IBL 1,312,864 1,710,024 2,002,796 2,319,625 2,508,064 Pre-Tax ROA 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% Avg. Assets 1,547,143 1,928,173 2,423,598 2,823,846 3,062,750 Tax rate 24.4% 24.1% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% Common Equity 102,798 120,175 174,496 200,756 224,448 Minorities & Outside Distbn. 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% RWA 1,106,648 1,385,262 1,702,165 1,923,446 2,211,963 ROA 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% Avg. RWA 926,598 1,245,955 1,543,714 1,812,806 2,067,705 RORWA 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% Equity/Assets 7.2% 5.8% 6.1% 6.6% 6.9% ROE 12.9% 19.3% 20.9% 18.1% 14.8% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 4

Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: China Citic Bank - H Share. Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: China Citic Bank - H Share. Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-securities-related: China Citic Bank - H Share. Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from China Citic Bank - H Share. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan covered companies by visiting https://mm.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/company, calling 1-800-477-0406, or emailing research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com with your request. China Citic Bank - H Share (0998.HK, 998 HK) Price Chart Price(HK$) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Apr 07 Jan 08 Oct 08 Jul 09 Apr 10 OW HK$7.5 OW HK$7.7 OW HK$8.8 OW HK$8 Jan 11 Oct 11 OW HK$8.2 OW HK$8.6 OW HK$8 OW HK$7.5OW HK$7.4 OW HK$7.5 OW HK$7.7N HK$5 Jul 12 Date Rating Share Price (HK$) 23-Nov-09 OW 6.73 8.60 10-Mar-10 OW 5.71 8.00 30-Apr-10 OW 5.07 7.70 09-Aug-10 OW 5.54 7.50 10-Nov-10 OW 6.14 8.80 27-Nov-10 OW 5.39 7.50 23-Mar-11 OW 5.18 7.40 02-Apr-11 OW 5.66 8.00 30-Aug-11 OW 3.96 7.50 12-Jan-12 OW 4.64 7.70 01-Apr-12 OW 4.67 8.20 31-Jul-12 N 3.92 5.00 Price Target (HK$) Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. Initiated coverage Nov 23, 2009. The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear 5

in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan s research website, www.morganmarkets.com. Coverage Universe: Klaczek, Josh A: Agricultural Bank of China - H (1288.HK), Bank of China - A (601988.SS), Bank of China - H (3988.HK), Bank of Communications Co (3328.HK), China Citic Bank - H Share (0998.HK), China Construction Bank (0939.HK), China Merchants Bank - H (3968.HK), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd - A (600036.SS), China Minsheng Banking - A (600016.SS), China Minsheng Banking - H (1988.HK), HSBC Holdings plc (0005.HK), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - A (601398.SS), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - H (1398.HK), Standard Chartered Plc (HK) (2888.HK) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 28, 2012 Overweight (buy) Neutral (hold) Underweight (sell) J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 44% 44% 12% IB clients* 52% 46% 34% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 42% 48% 10% IB clients* 69% 61% 53% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.morganmarkets.com, contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com. Equity Analysts' Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues. Registration of non-us Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-us analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-us affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan ("JPM") is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS") and its affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a marketing name for the U.K. investment banking businesses and EMEA cash equities and equity research businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries. Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporation's Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCC's website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Securities plc (JPMS plc) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 2711006. Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz East, Mumbai - 400098, is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (SEBI Registration Number - INB 230675231/INF 230675231/INE 230675231) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number - INB 010675237/INF 010675237) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MICA (P) 088/04/2012 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities 6

Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia: J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Ltd. is authorized by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA) to carry out dealing as an agent, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities business under licence number 35-07079 and its registered address is at 8th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 51907, Riyadh 11553, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - Building 3, Level 7, PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. Country and Region Specific Disclosures U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMS plc. Investment research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require a firm to establish, implement and maintain such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to "wholesale clients" only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to "retail clients". The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the terms "wholesale client" and "retail client" have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Frankfurt Branch and J.P.Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch which are regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider/market maker for derivative warrants, callable bull bear contracts and stock options listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. 82 Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and Japan Investment Advisers Association. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch. Singapore: JPMSS and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclosed in the Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only, not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons regarded as professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules. General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to JPMS and/or its affiliates and the analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMS distributes in the U.S. research published by non-u.s. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. "Other Disclosures" last revised September 29, 2012. Copyright 2012 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P 7