TELECOMMUNICATION TELEKOM MALAYSIA (T MK EQUITY, TLMM.KL) 27 Nov 2014 Company report Hafriz Hezry hafriz-hezry@ambankgroup.com 03-2036 2280 Results missed, searching for a bottom Rationale for report: Company result HOLD (Maintained) Price Fair Value 52-week High/Low Key Changes Fair value EPS RM7.24 RM7.40 RM7.57/RM5.05 YE to Dec FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Revenue (RM mil) 10,628.7 11,220.9 12,095.2 12,776.1 Core net profit (RM mil) 1,038.5 819.9 991.0 1,101.5 FD Core EPS (sen) 29.3 23.1 28.0 31.1 FD Core EPS growth (%) 17.9 (21.0) 20.9 11.1 Consensus Net Profit (RM mil) - 893.7 969.1 1,064.7 DPS (sen) 17.5 15.6 18.9 21.0 PE (x) 24.7 31.3 25.9 23.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 8.4 7.7 7.2 Div yield (%) 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.9 ROE (%) 15.5 11.4 13.5 14.7 Net Gearing (%) 55.2 72.4 70.5 70.4 Stock and Financial Data Shares Outstanding (million) 3,543.5 Market Cap (RMmil) 25,654.9 Book Value (RM/share) 2.01 P/BV (x) 3.6 ROE (%) 15.5 Net Gearing (%) 55.2 Major Shareholders Khazanah (41.0%) EPF (10.6%) Free Float 30.0 Avg Daily Value (RMmil) 42.8 Price performance 3mth 6mth 12mth Absolute (%) 15.8 14.7 42.0 Relative (%) 17.1 16.0 38.6 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 T MK PP 12247/06/2013 (032380) FBMKLCI Index 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Investment Highlights We maintain our HOLD call on TM but raise our fair value to RM7.40/share (10% discount to DCF) from RM6.20/share as we roll-over our valuations to FY15F and given the earnings revisions in this report. TM s 3Q14 core net profit of RM192mil brought 9M14 core earnings to RM591mil. The results missed estimates accounting for 67% of our and 66% of consensus forecast. Earnings fell 29% YoY. EBITDA margins contracted while tax rates had normalised (due to the absence of last mile tax incentive). Revenues were flat as TM underwent a clean-up of delinquent accounts in 3Q14. This led to a massive churn in Streamyx subs, while Streamyx ARPU dived to RM81 (3Q13: RM83). Voice revenue was indirectly impacted. On a normalised basis, voice revenue is down 3.4% QoQ while Streamyx ARPU was up to RM86 (2Q14: RM85). Positively, Unifi net adds reaccelerated to 9K/month while ARPU continued to rise to RM189 due to aggressive marketing (focused on selling HyppTV in return for higher speed) and upselling from Streamyx. ARPUs were also supported by better uptake of paid HyppTV channels. Staff cost were lower QoQ due to an inflated base in 2Q14 and a reversal of bonus provisions in 3Q14. The Skim Mesra is expected to be completed by end FY14 this helps to weed out older staff, but there is uncertainty whether there will be a recognition of one-off costs in FY15F. We trim FY14F by 8% to reflect TM s clean-up exercise, but raise FY15F-16F to factor in the absence of accelerated depreciation, higher net adds and ARPU for Unifi. Gestation for 4G LTE (network rollout expected in FY15) is a risk to group earnings over the next 12 months, but an extensive fibre network coupled with P1 s existing sites (60% pop coverage) could tone down capex. Migration of existing Wimax subs could lower initial takeup risk, but the initial focus on large screen means P1 s target market would be smaller than mobile peers. TM is trading close to historical average and has always traded at a discount to mobile peers. The move into mobile space could be a re-rating catalyst, but we prefer to remain conservative for now pending the consolidation of P1 next quarter, which will unveil the extent of losses TM has to stomach in the near term, and therefore determine whether the downward earnings revision cycle for TM has bottomed.
EXHIBIT 1: TM 3Q14 RESULT SUMMARY FYE Dec 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 QoQ YoY 9M13 9M14 YTD Revenue 2,610.5 2,821.8 2,636.0-6.6% 1.0% 7,648.9 8,077.8 5.6% Operating cost (1,736.7) (1,953.2) (1,792.6) -8.2% 3.2% (5,161.0) (5,519.3) 6.9% Other operating income 32.5 30.5 36.0 18.0% 10.8% 85.7 116.7 36.2% Other gains (0.5) (1.2) 8.2 2.4 6.5 170.8% EBITDA 905.8 897.9 887.6-1.1% -2.0% 2,576.0 2,681.7 4.1% Depreciation (541.4) (560.2) (570.2) 1.8% 5.3% (1,580.9) (1,710.3) 8.2% EBIT 364.4 337.7 317.4-6.0% -12.9% 995.1 971.4-2.4% Finance income 33.9 36.2 35.4-2.2% 4.4% 108.1 102.8-4.9% Finance cost (93.4) (73.6) (76.6) 4.1% -18.0% (273.6) (221.9) -18.9% Forex gain/(loss) on borrowings (43.8) 7.1 (14.7) -307.0% -66.4% (96.5) (4.7) -95.1% Associates 3.8 2.0 1.3-35.0% -65.8% 3.2 4.2 31.3% Pretax income 264.9 309.4 262.8-15.1% -0.8% 736.3 851.8 15.7% Tax (16.5) (84.9) (71.3) (43.5) (217.0) 398.9% Minority interest 7.5 10.4 2.7-74.0% -64.0% 24.8 21.3-14.1% Net profit 240.9 214.1 188.8-11.8% -21.6% 668.0 613.5-8.2% Core net profit 270.3 214.1 191.6-10.5% -29.1% 748.8 590.9-21.1% EBITDA margin 34.7% 31.8% 33.7% 33.7% 33.2% EBIT margin 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 13.0% 12.0% Pretax margin 10.1% 11.0% 10.0% 9.6% 10.5% Core net margin 10.4% 7.6% 7.3% 9.8% 7.3% Tax rate 6.2% 27.4% 27.1% 5.9% 25.5% GDPS (sen) 0.0 9.5 0.0 N/A #DIV/0! 9.8 9.5-3.1% EPS (sen) 7.6 6.0 5.4-10.5% -29.1% 20.9 16.5-21.1% Normalised EBITDA 891.4 905.0 875.8-3.2% -1.8% 2,560 2,655-1.9% Normalised EBITDA margins 34.1% 32.1% 33.2% 33.5% 32.9% Voice 892 894 812-9.2% -9.0% 2706 2581-4.6% Internet 685 727 714-1.8% 4.2% 1967 2167 10.2% Data 635 644 586-9.0% -7.7% 1826 1835 0.5% Others 398 557 524-5.9% 31.7% 1150 1495 30.0% Total revenue 2610 2822 2636-6.6% 1.0% 7649 8078 5.6% Unifi subs 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 QoQ YoY 9M13 9M14 YTD Residential 509,000 559,000 580,000 3.8% 13.9% Business 98,000 114,000 120,000 5.3% 22.4% 607,000 673,000 700,000 4.0% 15.3% Total net add/month 10,000 6,667 9,000 35.0% -10.0% Residential 8,333 5,000 7,000 40.0% -16.0% Business 1,667 1,667 2,000 20.0% 20.0% Streamyx subs (000) 1577 1578 1513-4.1% -4.1% Residential 1290 1296 1246-3.9% -3.4% Business 287 282 267-5.3% -7.0% Total net add/(churn) per month 0.3 0.3-21.7 Source: Company, AmResearch AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2
EXHIBIT 2: REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY DIVISION 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 QoQ YoY 9M13 9M14 YTD Consumer 733 766 767 0% 5% 2,172 2300 6% SME 483 495 460-7% -5% 1,417 1439 2% Enterprise 288 286 323 13% 12% 855 896 5% Gov ernment 442 590 500-15% 13% 1,313 1535 17% Global/Wholesale business 442 449 361-20% -18% 1,228 1198-2% Global business Shared services 222 236 224-5% 1% 664 708.4 7% Total revenue (RMmil) 2,610 2,822 2,636-7% 1% 7,649 8,078 6% Consumer 29 38 54 44% 87% 125 128 2% SME 100 65 38-41% -62% 248 209-16% Enterprise 52 43 74 70% 41% 174 162-7% Gov ernment 141 211 135-36% -4% 400 454 13% Global/Wholesale business 101 75 72-4% -29% 209 211 1% Global business Shared services (1) (7) 19 NA NA - 36.9 #DIV/0! Total operating profit (RMmil) 422 423 391-8% -7.5% 1,156 1,201 4% Operating margin Consumer 3.9% 4.9% 7.0% 5.8% 5.6% SME 20.8% 13.0% 8.3% 17.5% 14.5% Enterprise 18.1% 15.1% 22.7% 20.3% 18.0% Gov ernment 31.9% 35.7% 27.0% 30.5% 29.6% Wholesale business 22.9% 16.6% 19.8% 17.0% 17.6% Global business Shared services -0.5% -3.1% 8.3% 0.0% 5.2% Source: Company, AmResearch EXHIBIT 3: COST ANALYSIS AND ARPU TREND Cost analysis (RMmil) 3Q13 2Q14 3Q14 QoQ YoY 9M13 9M14 YTD Direct cost 486 456 432-5.3% -11.1% 1,333 1,335 0.1% Manpow er 537 632 547-13.4% 1.9% 1,646 1,778 8.0% Supplies/Materials 168 184 190 3.2% 13.4% 481 526 9.4% Bad & doubtful debts 22 58 30-47.7% 39.4% 63 124 97.9% Marketing expense 84 96 89-7.2% 5.0% 268 263-2.0% Maintenance 173 202 206 2.2% 19.6% 509 590 15.9% Other opex 268 327 299-8.5% 11.4% 861 903 4.9% Depreciation 541 561 570 1.7% 5.3% 1,581 1,710 8.2% 2,278 2,514 2,363-6.0% 3.7% 6,742 7,230 7.2% ARPU (RM/subs/month) Fixed line (DEL) 31 31 30-3.2% -3.2% Streamy x 83 85 81-4.7% -2.4% Unifi 183 187 189 1.1% 3.3% Source: Company, AmResearch AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 EXHIBIT 4: PB BAND CHART EXHIBIT 5: PE BAND CHART 4.00 60.00 3.50 50.00 3.00 2.50 +1δ Avg 40.00 +1δ 2.00 1.50-1δ 30.00 20.00 Avg 1.00 0.50 10.00-1δ 0.00 0.00 AmResearch Sdn Bhd 4
EXHIBIT 6: FINANCIAL DATA Income Statement (RMmil, YE 31 Dec) FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Revenue 9,993.5 10,628.7 11,220.9 12,095.2 12,776.1 EBITDA 3,231.9 3,533.3 3,689.2 3,994.8 4,307.4 Depreciation/Amortisation (2,044.7) (2,159.7) (2,355.7) (2,390.6) (2,492.6) Operating income (EBIT) 1,187.2 1,373.6 1,333.6 1,604.2 1,814.8 Other income & associates 0.9 3.9 - - - Net interest (174.3) (151.1) (199.3) (240.9) (230.2) Exceptional items 73.4 (105.2) - - - Pretax profit 1,087.2 1,121.2 1,134.2 1,363.3 1,584.5 Taxation 236.3 1.8 (283.6) (340.8) (396.1) Minorities/pref dividends (42.2) (35.6) (30.7) (31.4) (86.9) Net profit 1,281.3 1,087.4 819.9 991.0 1,101.5 Core net profit 881.0 1,038.5 819.9 991.0 1,101.5 Balance Sheet (RMmil, YE 31 Dec) FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Fixed assets 14,637.6 14,572.0 13,168.9 13,197.4 13,260.0 Intangible assets 322.1 319.8 313.4 313.4 313.4 Other long-term assets 427.4 532.5 1,119.2 1,119.2 1,119.2 Total non-current assets 15,387.1 15,424.3 14,601.5 14,630.0 14,692.6 Cash & equivalent 3,787.7 2,514.9 2,282.3 2,336.6 2,211.6 Stock 235.3 154.0 123.0 132.6 140.0 Trade debtors 2,207.0 2,288.6 3,689.1 3,976.5 4,445.4 Other current assets 578.8 764.7 294.7 294.7 294.7 Total current assets 6,808.8 5,722.2 6,389.0 6,740.3 7,091.7 Trade creditors 3,545.5 3,172.8 3,719.8 3,976.5 4,200.4 Short-term borrowings - 1,590.2 - - - Other current liabilities 3,076.7 1,007.5 637.9 638.9 639.9 Total current liabilities 6,622.2 5,770.5 4,357.7 4,615.4 4,840.3 Long-term borrowings 5,130.2 4,865.0 7,535.0 7,535.0 7,535.0 Other long-term liabilities 3,383.5 3,211.7 1,588.0 1,588.0 1,588.0 Total long-term liabilities 8,513.7 8,076.7 9,123.0 9,123.0 9,123.0 Shareholders funds 6,894.8 7,136.7 7,254.4 7,375.9 7,563.9 Minority interests 165.2 162.6 255.5 256.0 257.1 BV/share (RM) 1.95 2.01 2.05 2.08 2.13 Cash Flow (RMmil, YE 31 Dec) FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Pretax profit 1,087.2 1,121.2 1,134.2 1,363.3 1,584.5 Depreciation/Amortisation 2,044.7 2,159.7 2,355.7 2,390.6 2,492.6 Net change in working capital 57.4 (22.7) 224.1 (40.3) (252.5) Others (391.4) 137.5 453.7 (132.0) (197.4) Cash flow from operations 2,797.8 3,395.8 4,167.8 3,581.5 3,627.2 Capital expenditure (2,547.9) (2,400.0) (2,019.8) (2,419.0) (2,555.2) Net investments & sale of fixed assets - - - - - Others 320.0 72.8 (478.2) 58.6 69.3 Cash flow from investing (2,227.9) (2,327.2) (2,498.0) (2,360.4) (2,485.9) Debt raised/(repaid) 500.0 (2,000.0) - - - Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - - Dividends paid (779.9) (825.2) (737.9) (891.9) (991.4) Others (690.6) (516.7) (274.9) (274.9) (274.9) Cash flow from financing (970.5) (3,341.9) (1,012.9) (1,166.8) (1,266.3) Net cash flow (400.6) (2,273.3) 656.9 54.3 (125.0) Net cash/(debt) b/f 4,188.3 4,788.2 1,625.4 2,282.3 2,336.6 Net cash/(debt) c/f 3,787.7 2,514.9 2,282.3 2,336.6 2,211.6 Key Ratios (YE 31 Dec) FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Revenue growth (%) 9.2 6.4 5.6 7.8 5.6 EBITDA growth (%) (4.2) 9.3 4.4 8.3 7.8 Pretax margin (%) 10.9 10.5 10.1 11.3 12.4 Net profit margin (%) 12.8 10.2 7.3 8.2 8.6 Interest cover (x) 6.8 9.1 6.7 6.7 7.9 Effective tax rate (%) 21.7 0.2 25.0 25.0 25.0 Dividend payout (%) 45.7 56.9 67.5 67.5 67.5 Debtors turnover (days) 76 77 97 116 120 Stock turnover (days) 8 7 5 4 4 Creditors turnover (days) 119 115 112 116 117 Source: Company, AmResearch estimates AmResearch Sdn Bhd 5
Published by AmResearch Sdn Bhd (335015-P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 1 5 t h F l o o r B a n g u n a n A m B a n k G r o u p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan 50200 Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 0-2 4 4 4 ( r e s e a r c h ) F a x : ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 8-3 1 6 2 Printed by AmResearch Sdn Bhd (335015-P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 1 5 t h F l o o r B a n g u n a n A m B a n k G r o u p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan 50200 Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 0-2 4 4 4 ( r e s e a r c h ) F a x : ( 0 3 ) 2 0 7 8-3 1 6 2 The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmResearch Sdn Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmResearch Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmInvestment Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. For AmResearch Sdn Bhd Benny Chew Managing Director AmResearch Sdn Bhd 6