BNZ-Nine Rewards Consumer Trends Survey 6 September 2013 ISSN 2324-4321 Mission Statement To help Kiwi businesspeople and householders make informed financial decisions by discussing the economy in a language they can understand. Subscribe here. http://feedback.bnz.co.nz/forms/lfdyss5fgeq4kajp95uzta Consumer Confidence Eases Slightly But Spending Intentions There has been a slight reduction this month in the net percent of people feeling confident about the economy to 21% from 29% in July and August. Nevertheless, a net 8% of our 521 respondents (compared with 6% in August) still expect to spend more than usual in the coming month with a gross 17% thinking about buying a car. Thoughts about buying furniture and appliances are not changing with a gross 39% thinking of making such a purchase compared with 41% in August and 39% also in July. Thoughts of taking an overseas holiday remain near steady at 43% from 45% in August, and a strong gross 73% of people are thinking about buying clothes and accessories. The desire to repay debt appears to remain strong with a net 45% of respondents planning debt reduction and this high proportion correlates with the slow pace of growth in household debt revealed in the Reserve Bank s monthly data release last week. Thoughts of buying an investment property remain only mild at 5% gross from 7% in August but a still high net 60% of people expect house prices to rise. Only 21 of the 521 respondents think that house prices will fall over the next 12 months. On average house price rises of 4.4% are expected for the coming year. A gross 47% of people would like to work more hours compared with 41% in August but still a net 27% of people are finding work less readily available compared with 25% in August. An unchanging gross 9.4% of respondents are thinking about leaving New Zealand in the coming 12 months. Overall the results show no major turning of consumer spending intentions for the better or worse and in particular they show no feed-through of rising house prices into higher spending intentions. This will please the Reserve Bank but these are early days in the economic cycle and as growth in GDP accelerates to 4% and employment lifts we should be able to get an early gauge of any major change in the conditions which retailers will face in the near future. Do You Expect The Economy To Be In Better Or Worse Shape In A Year s Time? Better 43% 47% 45% - Worse 22% 18% 17% - - Same 35% 35% 38% - - Net outcome 21% 29% 29% - - Page 1
In The Coming Month Do You Think You Will Spend More or Less Than Usual? More than usual 28% 26% 27% 27% 32% Less than usual 20% 20% 19% 17% 13% About the same 52% 54% 54% 57% 58% Net outcome 8% 6% 8% 10% 19% Are you thinking about buying a new car within the next 3 months? Yes 17% 13% 14% 13% 18% No 83% 87% 86% 87% 82% Are you thinking about buying new furniture and/or appliances within the next 3 months? Yes 39% 41% 39% 33% 40% No 61% 59% 61% 67% 60% Are you planning to take an overseas holiday in the coming year? Yes 43% 44% 44% 47% 68% No 57% 56% 56% 53% 32% Are you thinking about buying more clothing and accessories within the next 3 months? Yes 73% 71% 74% 76% 76% No 27% 29% 26% 24% 24% What do you think you will be doing with your debt in the next six months? Raising it 10% 10% 9% 9% 12% Lowering it 55% 54% 57% 52% 46% No change N/A 35% 36% 34% 38% 42% Are you thinking about buying an investment property within the next 3 months? Yes 5% 7% 6% 5% 8% No 95% 93% 94% 95% 92% Page 2
In what direction do you think house prices in your area will move in the next 12 months? Rise 64% 67% 66% 59% 61% Fall 4% 5% 6% 5% 6% Stay the same/no view 32% 28% 28% 36% 33% Net % 60% 62% 60% 54% 54% How much do you think house prices will rise by in your area in the next 12 months? -Answer from those expecting prices to rise. Rise 4.4% 4.6% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% How much do you think house prices will fall by in your area in the next 12 months? -Answer from those expecting prices to fall. Fall 4.7% 4.9% 3.9% 4.2% 3.8% Would you like to earn more money by working more hours each week? Yes 47% 41% 45% 44% 48% No 53% 59% 55% 56% 52% Are you finding jobs or extra hours of work becoming more or less readily available? More available 14% 15% 15% 17% 12% Less available 41% 40% 41% 37% 42% Not sure 44% 46% 44% 46% 46% Net outcome -27% -25% -26% -19% -30% Are you thinking about shifting overseas within the next 12 months? Yes 9% 9% 9% 9% 12% No 91% 91% 91% 91% 88% Page 3
Results By Region We only report regional results when at least 20 responses are received (though we have this month allowed Bay of Plenty to creep in with 19). To analyse the results it is best to compare the region you are interested in with the nationwide response shown in the bottom line. For instance, note the limited dispersion of house price rises between regions shown in column J and the strong expectations of rises in column I. One cannot claim that only Aucklanders and Cantabrians expect their house prices to rise in the coming year. Note the complete absence of anyone in the Bay of Plenty thinking about leaving the country in the coming 12 months and only 1% of respondents thinking about shooting off in Canterbury compared with 14% in Auckland. size Net Spend CarFurniture TravelClothing Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Optimism Prices around NZ Auckland 118 35 13 25 47 50 72-50 5 68 5 5 50-31 14 Bay of Plenty 19-26 -5 16 37 47 89-42 5 47 4 9 32-42 0 Canterbury 84 27 11 11 38 43 73-35 2 71 5 6 49-11 1 Gisborne 3 Sample size too small Hawkes Bay 24 33 4 25 38 38 92-42 13 38 5 1 50-29 13 Manawatu-W 34 12 12 12 24 29 76-41 3 41 3 4 41-15 12 Marlborough 10 Nelson 5 Northland 9 Otago 25 8 4 28 44 36 72-44 16 64 6 40-44 8 Southland 11 Taranaki 4 Tasman 0 Waikato 45 13-16 9 33 42 64-67 0 53 4 3 40-11 2 Wellington 128 18 9 13 38 45 72-47 6 59 4 5 46-35 13 West Coast 2 All NZ 521 21 8 17 39 43 73-45 5 60 4 5 47-27 9 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N Do you expect the economy to be in a better or worse shape in a year s time? In the coming month do you think you will spend more or less than usual? Are you thinking about buying a new car within the next 3 months? Are you thinking about buying new furniture and/or appliances within the next 3 months? Are you planning to take an overseas holiday in the coming year? Are you thinking about buying more clothing and accessories within the next 3 months? What do you think you will be doing with your debt in the next six months? Are you thinking about buying an investment property within the next 3 months? In what direction do you think house prices in your area will move in the next 12 months? How much do you think house prices will rise by in your area in the next 12 months? How much do you think house prices will fall by in your area in the next 12 months? Would you like to earn more money by working more hours each week? Are you finding jobs or extra hours of work becoming more or less readily available? Are you thinking about shifting overseas within the next 12 months? Page 4
Results By Gender For some reason the confidence of females regarding where the economy will be in a year s time has fallen sharply to just a net 2% from 20% in August. But their spending intentions have risen to a net 14% from 10%! September survey Size Net Spend Car Furniture Travel Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Optimism Clothing Prices around NZ Male 264 38 3 19 42 52 67-48 6 68 4 6 51-25 11 Female 257 2 14 14 37 34 79-42 4 52 5 4 42-28 7 ALL 521 21 8 17 39 43 73-45 5 60 4 5 47-27 9 August survey Size Net Spend Car Furniture Travel Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Optimism Clothing Prices around NZ Male 278 39 3 15 44 44 64-50 8 65 5 4 44-16 13 Female 273 20 10 11 37 45 79-37 6 59 4 6 37-34 6 ALL 551 29 6 13 41 44 71-44 7 62 5 5 41-25 9 July survey Size Net Spend Car Furniture Travel Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Optimism Clothing Prices around NZ Male 273 39.9 5.9 14.7 39.9 45.4 70.3-47.6 6.6 65.2 4.5 3.6 41.8-20.5 12.1 Female 250 16.4 11.2 12.8 38.8 43.2 78.4-49.6 5.2 54.4 4.1 4.2 48.8-32.8 6.4 ALL 523 28.7 8.4 13.8 39.4 44.4 74.2-48.6 5.9 60.0 4.3 3.9 45.1-26.4 9.4 June survey Sample B C D E F G H I J K L M N Size Spend Car Furniture Travel Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Clothing Prices around NZ Male 282 6.7 16.7 31.9 45.0 71.6-44.0 7.1 55.7 4.6 4.4 43.6-14.9 10.6 Female 271 12.5 9.6 34.7 49.8 80.4-41.7 3.0 52.0 4.7 3.9 45.0-23.6 8.1 ALL 557 9.7 13.3 33.2 47.2 76.1-42.9 5.0 53.9 4.6 4.2 44.2-19.4 9.3 May survey Male 269 19.0 21.2 37.5 67.3 69.9-36.2 6.7 56.1 4.3 4.2 46.5-21.2 8.2 Female 261 19.2 13.8 42.7 68.8 83.1-48.6 8.5 52.7 4.4 3.4 50.2-38.5 15.8 ALL 530 19.1 17.6 40.1 68.1 76.4-42.2 7.6 54.4 4.3 3.8 48.3-29.7 11.9 Page 5
Results By Age The interesting result here is that optimism of 25 29 year olds regarding the state of the economy in a year s time has plunged from a net 33% optimistic in August to a net 11% pessimistic this month. Yet spending intentions have risen. September survey size Net Spend Car Furniture TravelClothing Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Optimism Prices around NZ 18-24 51 18 14 24 37 47 86-31 6 64 4 6 78-34 20 25-29 38-11 26 16 58 34 84-39 0 50 5 3 61 13 16 30-34 44 23 7 25 66 43 84-57 2 55 3 5 55-27 25 35-39 42-5 12 12 45 24 71-74 2 74 5 6 38-26 12 40-44 63 19 17 13 49 33 86-59 3 51 4 3 44-19 6 45-49 71 11-6 21 38 42 63-42 6 58 4 1 37-38 11 50-54 64 33 8 17 31 48 69-41 6 59 4 3 38-42 3 55-59 53 23 6 13 34 55 77-34 8 58 5 9 49-38 2 60-64 40 60-5 18 25 55 55-35 5 50 4 8 48-10 3 65yrs+ 55 31 11 9 16 47 56-42 7 78 5 6 31-25 2 All 521 21 8 17 39 43 73-45 5 60 4 5 47-27 9 August survey size Net Spend Car Furniture TravelClothing Debt Invest House % rise % fall Work Jobs Leave Optimism Prices around NZ 18-24 50 26 6 14 46 50 92-26 4 52 4 1 82-58 22 25-29 30 33 10 30 40 57 73-33 3 57 4 3 67-17 23 30-34 45 18 7 11 53 47 67-51 9 62 5 4 44-29 20 35-39 43 40 12 19 49 37 88-74 7 72 5 7 35-14 12 40-44 68 25 4 12 53 41 62-50 9 63 4 3 37-9 13 45-49 64 17 9 13 31 42 83-34 9 61 5 4 30-38 6 50-54 72 32 14 14 38 40 65-60 13 69 5 6 42-17 6 55-59 67 33-12 12 37 42 61-40 10 66 4 5 34-25 4 60-64 54 39 2 7 31 43 57-44 0 54 5 9 28-20 0 65yrs+ 57 35 16 7 33 53 74-19 0 60 4 10 26-25 0 All 551 29 6 13 41 44 71-44 7 62 5 5 41-25 9 For further information contact Tony Alexander, Chief Economist, tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz www.tonyalexander.co.nz The is run in the last week of each month. Real People, Real Insights Nine Rewards is an online market research panel that provides wide coverage and depth of sample across Australia and New Zealand. Large, active panels - 1.4 million members in Australia (est. 2007), 60,000 in New Zealand (est. 2011) and a unique multi-channel recruitment source ensures diverse coverage of all demographic groups and interests and limited cross-over with other panels. For more information visit our website www.ninerewards.co.nz or email for a quote on your next project - glen.murphy@ninerewards.com This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person s particular financial situation or goals. Bank of New Zealand strongly recommends readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. Neither Bank of New Zealand nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication. Page 6