4 th May, 2017 Market Outlook Eric Yuen ericyuen@masonhk.com Hang Seng Index climbed for four straight months with a cumulative gain of 11.9% in the first four months of the year. The rally in April is skewed towards technology stocks while the average daily market turnover actually dropped 10% from the previous month showing that the rising momentum is unsustainable. With historical P/E multiple above 10-year average, current valuation of Hang Seng Index is unattractive to long-term investors considering the interest rate up-cycle in U.S. and skyrocketing property prices in Hong Kong (up 7% year-to-date and 20% yoy in April). We expect Hang Seng Index to move within 23,500-25,000 in May but the risk is on the downside. Expect Hang Seng Index to move within 23,500-25,000 but the risk is on the downside Any correction for HSCEI should be viewed as a buying opportunity Stronger than expected GDP growth for the first quarter and easing downward pressure on renminbi provide a good opportunity for the Chinese government to enhance supervision and risk control on financial companies starting March. This together with increasing the pace of IPO and slowing money supply are likely to dampen performance of China s stock markets in the second quarter as well as H shares listed in Hong Kong. We may see a slowdown in China s GDP growth in the second quarter given a pullback in manufacturing activities and property market. Nevertheless, a more balanced economy and improvement in corporate earnings will eventually lead to higher equity prices. We keep our year-end target for HSCEI unchanged at 11,500 and believe any correction in May/June should be view as a buying opportunity. Chinese financial stocks are likely to underperform the market in near term due to strengthening supervision of off-balance sheet businesses. Smaller companies will be affected to a greater extent. Chinese property developers could face pressure of profit taking amid a slowdown in contracted sales in the second quarter. Infrastructure stocks will be well-supported by favourable government policy and development of Xiongan New Area in Hebei province. Defensive plays like telecom, power and utilities counters are expected to outperform during the period of market consolidation. Economic outlook for Eurozone seems turning positive after French election. Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in April, the highest in six years. This may benefit companies with heavy exposure to Europe such as CK Hutchison (1) and HSBC (5). We also like AIA Group (1299) given its strong operating results for the first quarter. Overweight global and defensive plays
Market Review Tech stock rally sent the Nasdaq to all time high Most stock markets worldwide ended higher in April fuelled by strong corporate earnings in U.S., favorable French election results and weakness in U.S. dollar. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose 1.3% and 0.9% respectively. Nasdaq advanced 2.3% to reach alltime high. DAX and CAC 40 grew 1.0%-2.8%. Emerging markets continued to see a net inflow of funds. Major stock market indexes in Asia including Japan, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia climbed 1.4% to 2.1% with an average gain of 1.7%. Hang Seng Index closed up 2.1% in April and 11.9% in the first four months of the year. China s stock markets declined as the PRC government further enhanced supervision and risk control on commercial banks and insurance companies. Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite retreated 2.1% and 4.0% respectively. China s GDP grew faster-than-expected 6.9% yoy in the first quarter of 2017 thanks to improvement in foreign trade, industrial production and fixed assets investment. Urban fixed assets investment expanded 9.2% yoy in 1Q17 versus a full year increase of 8.1% in 2016. Growth in industrial production accelerated to 7.6% yoy in March, the highest since December 2014. Exports and imports surged 8.2% and 24.0% yoy in 1Q17 respectively versus a full year drop of 7.7% and 5.5% in 2016. Rebound in foreign reserve for two straight months through March eased downward pressure on the renminbi. Corporate earnings also saw a significant improvement. According to government statistics, net profits for China s industrial companies and state-owned enterprises increased by 28.3% and 37.3% yoy in the first quarter of 2017. China s GDP grew faster-thanexpected 6.9% yoy in 1Q17 Tencent hit record high with a gain of 28% year-to-date Technology stocks continued to outperform Hang Seng Index in April. AAC Technologies (2018) jumped 26% on analyst upgrade. Tencent (700) rose 9% in April and 28% year-todate. AIA Group (1299) went up 10% due to strong operating results for the first quarter. Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038) advanced 12% thanks to appreciation of British pound. Chinese property developers performed well despite a nationwide tightening in mortgage lending. Seven of the eight largest Chinese property stocks grew an average 6% among which China Evergrande (3333) soared 15%. Local banks and utilities stocks moved in line with the benchmark index. HSBC (5) added 2%. MTR Corporation (66) and Power Assets (6) increased 3%-4%. Gaming, telecom, oil, consumption and local property stocks showed mixed performance. Link REIT (823) closed up 3% on falling U.S. treasury yields. Aggressive share buyback pushed up the share price of CK Property (1113) by 7%. Belle Int l (1880) and Want Want China (151) both increased 4% amid speculation on privatisation. China Mobile (941) and China Unicom (762) shrank 2%-3% due to disappointing quarterly earnings. PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883) and Kunlun Energy (135) slid 2%-4% on falling crude oil price. HSCEI cut 0.5% in April as the decline in China s stock markets hurt market sentiment. Air China (753) surged 10%, the most in HSCEI. Anhui Conch (914) posted a gain of 3%. Railway, power, automobile stocks were mixed. China Railway Group (390) plunged 5%. Huaneng Power (902) increased 3%. Great Wall Motor (2333), Dongfeng Motor (489) and Geely Automobile (175) declined 5%-12% while BYD Company (1211) advanced 6%. Financial stocks also lacked clear direction. Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) grew 5% whilst China Minsheng Banking (1988) tumbled 8%. ICBC (1398) and ABC (1288) were almost flat. PICC P&C (2328) rose 5%. Haitong Securities (6837) lost 2%. Weakness in China s stock markets weighted on H shares
Gain (%) Monthly Summary of Stock Recommendations Benchmark Index: HSI Index Report Date: 30/4/2017 Note: Assume short-selling is executable, gains ignore transaction costs # of Recommendations: 60 Calculations: # of Buys (B): 56 Accumulative Method (Accum.) # of Holds (H): 3 Summation of return, with direction based on call recommendation # of Sells (S): 1 Difference calculated as sum of absolute return between recommendations and Hit Rate: 45.61% benchmark index. Buy = +, Hold = Void, Sell = - Recommendations Absolute Return: 2.34% Relative Benchmark Method (Relative) Benchmark Absolute Return: 2.38% Summation of relative Difference, with direction based on call recommendation. Difference (Accum.): -0.05% Relative Difference calculated as relative gain between recommended stock and Difference (Relative): -0.13% benchmark index Average Historical Performance vs Benchmark Difference (Relative) Hit Rate Apr-16-0.73% 48.08% May-16-0.79% 46.43% Jun-16-1.74% 37.70% Jul-16-2.06% 35.48% Aug-16 1.83% 55.74% Sep-16 2.11% 58.33% Oct-16 0.73% 56.90% Nov-16 2.99% 52.54% Dec-16 3.54% 61.40% Jan-17 4.18% 63.16% Feb-17 3.15% 66.67% Mar-17 0.21% 56.36% Apr-17-0.13% 45.61% 6.0% Avg Historical Performance vs Benchmark 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Apr-16-2.0% May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17-4.0% -6.0% Difference (Relative)
Index and Sector Performance Summary for April 2017 Index % change in share price April 2017 Hang Seng Index (24,615) 2.1 HSCEI (10,220) 0.5 Global rallies in tech stocks Sectors Stocks % chg in share Reasons price- Apr 2017 Outperform Technology AAC Technology (2018) 26 Fundamental re-rating Miscellaneous Tencent (700), AIA Group (1299), CKI (1038) 9-12 Speculation on strong quarterly earnings for 1Q17 PRC properties Seven of eight largest property developers 1-15, avg +6 Low valuation Coal / Cement China Shenhua (1088), Anhui Conch (914) 1-3, avg +2 Global CK Hutchison (1), CITIC Ltd (267) +2 HK utilities CLP Holdings (2), HK & China Gas (3), MTR Corp (66), Power Assets (6) 0-4, avg +2 Falling US treasury yields HK banks HSBC (5), BOC Hong Kong (2388), Hang Seng Bank (11), Bank of East Asia (23) 0-2, avg +1 Faster loan growth in 1Q17 In Line/Mixed Airline Air China (753), Cathay Pacific (293) -1 to +10, avg +4 PRC insurers Six Chinese insurers in HSCEI -1 to +5, avg +2 Regulator enhanced supervision and risk control HK properties Nine local property stocks in Hang Seng Index -3 to +7, avg +1 Record high housing price Consumption Mengniu Dairy (2319), Want Want China (151), Belle Int l (1880), Hengan Int l (1044) -6 to +4, avg +1 Privatization offer for Belle Power CGN Power (1816), China Longyuan (916), CR Power (836), Huaneng Power (902) -2 to +3, avg +0 Gaming Sands China (1928), Galaxy Entertainment (27) -2 to +2, avg -0 Rising gaming revenue PRC securities Five securities stocks in HSCEI -2 to +2, avg -1 PRC banks Nine Chinese banks in HSCEI -8 to +5, avg -1 Regulator enhanced supervision and risk control Telecom China Unicom (762), China Telecom (728), Disappointing earnings Results for -3 to +0, avg -2 China Mobile (941) 1Q17 Railway China Railway Construction (1186), CCCC (1800), China Railway Group (390), CRRC Corp (1766), Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric (3898)) -5 to +1, avg -2 Automobile BYD Company (1211), Dongfeng Motor (489), Geely Auto (175), Great Wall Motor (2333), -12 to +6, avg -4 Airline Air China (753), Cathay Pacific (293) -1 to +10, avg +4 Underperform Oil Kunlun Energy (135), Sinopec (386), CNOOC (883), PetroChina (857) 0-4, avg -2 Miscellaneous China Merchants Port (144), Sinopharm (1099), Lenovo (992), China Cinda Asset Mgt (1359) 2-3 China announced to create Xiongan New Area Slowdown in passenger car sales in March Decline in crude oil price In Line/M
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