OCTOBER 10, 2018
TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT 1:15AM USD FED WILLIAMS SPEECH - - - - 08:30AM GBP Balance of Trade AUG -1.8B -0.111B - POSITIVE FOR GBP 12:30PM CAD Building Permits MoM AUG -0.3% -0.1% 0.5% NEGATIVE FOR CAD 12:30PM USD Core PPI MoM SEP - -0.1% 0.2% POSITIVE FOR USD 02:00PM USD Wholesale Inventories MoM AUG 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% NEGATIVE FOR USD POSITIVE FOR YEN 08:30PM USD API Crude Oil Stock Change 5/OCT -0.37M 0.907M - NEGATIVE FOR CRUDE 11:50PM JPY Bank Lending YoY SEP 2.1% 3% 2.1% POSITIVE FOR YEN NEGATIVE FOR USD
SNAPSHOT SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND AUDUSD 0.7110 0.22 STRONG NZDUSD 0.6485 0.20 STRONG EURUSD 1.1501 0.17 NEUTRAL GBPUSD 1.3155 0.12 STRONG USDJPY 113.01-0.18 WEAK USDCAD 1.2940-0.04 WEAK USDCHF 0.9908-0.09 WEAK DXY 95.430-0.02 WEAK GOLD 1193 0.40 NEUTRAL SILVER 14.40-0.2 WEAK CRUDEOIL 74.65-0.01 STRONG
ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: ASIAN STOCKS REMAINS MUTED, NIKKEI FELL ON STRONGER YEN & CHINA CONCERN Asian stocks falls on Wednesday after IMF cuts the economy outlook in 2018-19 from 3.9% to 3.7%. MSCI broad based index was flat.australian shares hits four months low as weakness persist. Tokyo stocks fell Tuesday as the yen's advance against the U.S. dollar weighed on exporter issues and concerns grew over the unclear outlook for the Chinese economy. YEN ROSES AFTER RISING AUGUST MACHINERY ORDERS BY 6.8% According to the latest report apan's core private-sector machinery orders rose 6.8 percent in August from the previous month to reach the highest level since January 2008, boosted by solid demand in the manufacturing sector, government data showed Wednesday. OIL PRICES EDGED LOWER IN ASIAN TRADES Oil prices too take a hit after the diminished economy outlook, however prices were supportive after hurricane in Florida forces to shutdown at least 40 % of US gulf of Mexico crude output.
MSCI OUR VIEW: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH INDEX BREACHES BELOW 1585. MSCI index for EM currencies slips below 1585.It moves below its 10 days DMA & trading near lower Bollinger band, the volatility is squeezed in. It shows weakness in emerging economy currencies, to create short positions in the specific currency against USD
AUDUSD TREND: BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: AUDUSD BOUNCE BACK AS RSI OVERSOLD The AUDUSD pair is trading higher on daily charts from the lows of 0.7050. RSI & Stochastic are approaching giving bullish crossover in short term.voltaility is high which could further the extend the pair on higher side only to fall from those levels. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI NEUTRAL BUY BUY BUY STOCHASTIC BUY SELL BUY BUY BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL SELL BUY NEUTRAL 10 SMA SELL SELL SELL BUY MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL SELL SELL SELL SENTIMETER NEUTRAL SELL BUY BUY FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: AUDUSD SHUNS LOSSES ON HIGHER BUSINESS CONFIDENCE The AUDUSD enjoyed the gains with increased confidence in after better than expected business confidence data. It show was edged up above its long run average of 6 in September 2018.Good number in employment, improved business conditions helped the s distress AUD to climb against USD STARTEGY BUY 0.7115 0.7135 0.7155 0.7085 SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 AUDUSD 0.7010 0.7070 0.7145 0.7175
NZDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: PRICE HIGHER ON SHORT COVERING On daily chart the pair crawl above 0.6470 after it made find support near 0.6450 on daily chart. Oscillators slopes above oversold levels.on 4 hour charts it formed three white soldiers further confirmes the momentum to continue INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI SELL BUY BUY BUY STOCHASTIC BUY SELL BUY BUY BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL 10 SMA SELL SELL BUY NEUTRAL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL BUY NEUTRAL SENTIMETER SELL SELL BUY NEUTRAL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: KIWI GAINS AFTER US BOND YIELD TUMBLED KIWI received a little respite yesterday, after US bond yield fell & USD retreat from higher levels. Neutral Inflation data remains neutral as expected by analyst doesn t provide much support to USD. STARTEGY BUY 0.6490 0.6510 0.6525 0.6470 SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6425 0.6515 0.6535
EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: EUROPEAN STOCK CLOSED LOWER AMID RISK AVERSION The European markets closed Tuesday session in gree territory. The FTSE 100 gained 0.11 percent while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 gained 0.31 percent and 0.47 percent respectively IMF INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND CUT ITS FORECAST FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2018 AND 2019. IMF forecast gives worldwide equities a shiver, all major indices closed lower, results in rising bond yield. UK GDP WOULD BE IN FOCUSS LATER DUE IN TODAY. UK's monthly GDP reading is forecasted at 0.1%, a slight contraction from the previous month's 0.3% data, as it would affect Britain's economy still struggles to throw off signs of stagnating growth within their domestic
EURUSD TREND: BULLISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EURUSD TO TRADE IN A NARROW RANGE EURUSD retreat from highs of 1.1550 made on 5 th October.Still prices are below its prominent moving average cross overs. The price range for the pair is expected to be in 1.1545-1.1470, a breach of the level will decide the further trend for the pair INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL SELL BUY NEUTRAL BOLLINGER BAND SELL BUY BUY NEUTRAL 10 SMA BUY BUY BUY SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY SELL SENTIMETER NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:EURUSD rises on Mixed data, fall in USD EURUSD took gains after a softer USD, Euro rises in European trade after a not so impressive however satisfactory German trade surplus data on improve primary income surplus. STRATEGY BUY 1.1510 1.1525 1.1545 1.1490 SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 EURUSD 1.1490 1.1475 1.1525 1.1575
GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: GBPUSD SLOPES ABOVE THE TREND LINE ON DAILY CHARTS GBP USD on daily charts was trading with bullish slop along with the trend line.however cautious emerges near 1.3180 levels as it would acts a strong resistance, the pair started fall from highs of 1.3219 on september 29, with the closing around 1.3170. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI SELL NEUTRAL BUY BUY STOCHASTIC SELL SELL BUY BUY BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL SELL BUY NEUTRAL 10 SMA NEUTRAL SELL SELL BUY MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL BUY SENTIMETER NEUTRAL SELL BUY BUY FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: POUNDS CAN BE SOFTER DUE TO WEAK RETIAL SALES FIGURES GBPUSD gains although on a positive Brexit negotiations with EU, however a official statement from British policy makers not encouraging though, a fall in the reading of retail sales figure showed a -0.2 % decline which indicates sluggish consumer spending last week. STRATEGY SELL 1.3180 1.3145 1.3120 1.3200 SCRIPS SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 GBPUSD 1.3140 1.3100 1.3185 1.3210
US ECONOMY UPDATE MARKET BYTES: US STOCK INDICES CLOSED WITH MARGINAL GAINS, AS RATE HIKES SPECULATION TAKE A PAUSE U.S. stock indexes ended Tuesday nearly where they began, as interest rates let off the accelerator following their sharp rise last week. The pause came after bond yields surged last week following several encouraging reports on the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield was just 3.05 percent last Tuesday, and the speed of the recent rise has been more concerning to investors than the level. IMF WEAKER ECONOMY OUTLOOK TOOK A TOLL ON LOONIE IMF announced ongoing U.S-China trade war was taking a toll and emerging markets were struggling with tighter liquidity and capital outflows. Canada's economy could suffer if global growth slows, since it exports many commodities, including oil.
DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK: BEARISH OUR VIEW: The index falls from the high of 96.15 as yen gained strength out of the basket of 6 currencies. It is trading near its 10 day moving average, a fall below 95.60, will drag the index till 95.20-95.10.
USDJPY TREND: BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDJPY CRACKSBELOW MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER The USD/JPY bulls looses their momentum near 113.95 could not sustain above and fell sharply with a strong red candle on the daily charts.the prices breach below 20 & 50 days EMA crossover.volatility is quite high as the Bollinger band is in the expansion mode. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY BUY SELL SELL STOCHASTIC SELL SELL SELL SELL BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL SELL 10 SMA NEUTRAL BUY SELL SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY SELL SENTIMETER NEUTRAL BUY SELL SELL FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT: YEN RISES ON OPTIMISTIC MANUFACTURING DATA USDJPY pair looses after recent released core machinery orders in Japan, jumped to 6.8% beating analyst expectation in the market, after an 11.0% jump in the previous month. The number reported were third gains in the past 6 months. The rising yen puts pressure on the USD STRATEGY BUY 113.20 112.95 112.60 113.55 SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDJPY 112.95 112.70 113.55 113.75
USDCAD TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDCAD TRADES LOWER AFTER BREAK DOWN THE LEVEL OF 1.2920 On daily charts technically, the pair forms the rising wedge pattern which is bearish in nature from the levels of close of 1.2823 made on 2 nd October 2018.It has broken the pattern and trades till the lower levels of 1.2910-1.2900. INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI NEUTRAL SELL BUY BUY STOCHASTIC SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY BUY BUY 10 SMA NEUTRAL BUY BUY SELL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL SELL SENTIMETER NEUTRAL SELL BUY BUY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: USDCAD WEIGH DOWN BY SHARP FALL IN HOUSING DATA USDCAD is under continuous pressure as weaker global outlook & recent poor housing data also added the woes of the loonie.weaker economy will put pressure on commodties & related currencies. STRATEGY SELL 1.2940 1.2925 1.2900 1.2975 SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDCAD 1.2920 1.2890 1.2950 1.2975
USDCHF TREND: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: USDCHF TRADES SLUGGISH NEAR 0.9950 USD/CHF trading with bearish outlook with a slower momentum, on daily charts it seems prices will be flatter near 0.9920, as it is consolidating near 0.9920-0.9930.It has broken 0.9920 level, further it could fall up to 0.9880 INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY RSI BUY BUY SELL NEUTRAL STOCHASTIC SELL SELL SELL SELL BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY SELL NEUTRAL 10 SMA SELL NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL SENTIMETER SELL NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: USDCHF, CHF GAINS ON GROWTH OPTIMISM BY IMF FORECASTS USDCHF after consolidating near 0.9925-30 fell sharply as IMF instill faiths in Swiss economy as against the global economy weaker outlook. It is expected to grow by 3% revised to 2.3% in April 2018.Global outlook diminished from 3.9% to 3.7% in 2018-19 STRATEGY SELL 0.9910 0.9870 0.9865 0.9955 SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2 USDCHF 0.9880 0.9850 0.9950 1.0005
GOLD TREND: NEUTRAL TECHNICAL VIEW: Rising trend line on the daily charts flatter near, after the prices breached 1195 on hourly charts.it went through a sharp fall from the higher level near 1210 made on 5 th october.the price is consolidating in the range of 1185-1195. STRATEGY AWAITS FOR SIGNAL - - - - SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2 GOLD 1190 1185 1200 1210
SILVER TREND: BEARISH TECHNICAL VIEW: Silver will be in consolidation phase with negative undertone.it is trading below 20 & 50 day EMA crossover. The price is expected to trade lower in intraday session.. STRATEGY SELL 14.45 14.25 14 14.75 SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE2 SILVER 14.25 13.95 14.75 15.10
CRUDEOIL TREND: NEUTRA TO BULLISH TECHNICAL VIEW: On daily chart crude oil is consolidating in the range of 74.20-74.80.It is trading near its 10 day DMA, a trade above 74.80 in intraday sesstion will further open the doors for higher levels 74.90-75.20.However on the downside it is capped near 73.80. STRATEGY BUY 74.20 74.80 75.20 73.75 SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2 CRUDE OIL 73.70 73.50 74.95 75.55