Sensex (26150) / Nifty (8074) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart The Nifty opened with marginal upside gap on Friday and traded in a narrow range in first half of the session. However, we witnessed some positive momentum in the later half; but, the up move was sold off quickly and eventually the index ended the session with loss of 0.07 percent. At this juncture, although the overall momentum is negative, we do not want to participate on the short side. Technically speaking, the Nifty is hovering around the 200 SMA since last four days and is currently a tad below the average. This level coincides with the 89 EMA on weekly chart and hence, 8050 8000 should be considered as a strong support zone. We advise traders to avoid shorting at current level and in fact, aggressive traders can consider this dip as a buying opportunity by keeping a strict stop loss below 8000 on a sustainable basis. In case of breaking 8000, we do not expect major corrections in the market as we see a possibility of false breakdown. The important reason behind this hypothesis is the placement of RSI-Smoothened on daily chart below the 11 mark. Historically speaking, whenever this indicator falls to such a lower level, the market tends to give a sharp bounce in the near term and we expect the index to bounce on the upside towards 8280 8400 levels. Traders need to understand that the market has undergone a decent price-wise correction and now, we expect a time-correction within the broad range for some time. Key Levels Support 1 8050 Resistance 1 8150 Support 2 8000 Resistance 2 8220 Nifty Bank Outlook - (18959) Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Post a positive opening, the bears controlled the market proceedings on Friday too. As a result, the Nifty Bank index ended the session with loss of 0.67 percent over its previous close. The banking index has outperformed the Nifty in recent past, is now hovering around 89 EMA on daily chart. Although, we have mentioned in our previous report too that the index is trading near the support zone and the momentum readings too are in oversold zone. Hence, we continue to advise traders to avoid creating short positions at current levels. The near term volatility is expected to remain high and thus, traders should follow proper risk management strategies. Immediate supports for the index are placed at 18900 and 18760 levels; while, intraday resistances are seen at 19100-19217 levels. Key Levels Support 1 18900 Resistance 1 19100 Support 2 18760 Resistance 2 19217 1
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 3.95% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 6.67% as market closed at 8074.10 levels. The Nifty November future closed with a premium of 0.60 against the premium of 8.40 points in last trading session. The December series closed at a premium of 47.15 points. The Implied Volatility of at the money options has decreased from 17.78% to 16.43%. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty remained unchanged at 0.74 levels. The total of the market is Rs. 2,85,991/- cr. and the stock futures is Rs. 72,218/- cr. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are NHPC, JPASSOCIAT, DLF, SOUTHBANK and JSWENERGY. Nifty Vs Views On Friday, FIIs continue to sell in both cash market segment and in Index Futures. They sold equities worth Rs. 926 crores. While, in index futures, they were net ULTRACEMCO 1397600 23.05 3381.90 1.58 sellers worth Rs. 597 crores with rise in open interest, PETRONET 6268500 15.22 377.35 8.14 SRF indicating fresh short formation in previous trading 561500 13.66 1430.45-2.52 session. SBIN 75582000 10.57 276.00-0.81 In Index options segment, FII sold marginally with rise in SAIL 82308000 9.90 48.80-2.20 VOLTAS 3910000 8.79 293.50-3.01 open interest. In call options, we witnessed fresh build-up in 8100 and 8300 strikes; followed by unwinding in 8400 strike. On the other hand, in put options, we hardly saw any meaningful open interest addition. However, 7900 put option was comparatively active and it also added some fresh positions. Highest in current series is visible in 8500 call and 8000 put options. Last week, FIIs continued adding short positions in Index Futures due to which the long short ratio has decreased to 55% now. While in options front, they continue writing call options in a big way. Thus, looking at the above data, we believe Nifty may find it difficult to show any meaningful recovering in last few days of November series. Thus, traders are suggested to stay light in Index and adopt stock specific approach. Gainers BATAINDIA 3927000 8.38 421.70-0.34 PCJEWELLER 1203000 7.36 337.45-1.06 Losers DCBBANK 2556000-9.55 110.25 3.67 HINDZINC 7680000-7.51 249.65-0.34 TORNTPHARM 366000-7.29 1311.00 4.02 ASHOKLEY 64470000-6.61 79.65 0.89 IDBI 36624000-6.05 71.85 2.20 ONGC 17157500-5.84 274.85 0.60 BOSCHLTD 84600-5.79 19204.50 0.58 HCLTECH 6340600-5.44 764.15 0.25 Historical Volatility HV NTPC 30.96 PETRONET 62.85 ENGINERSIN 53.87 NHPC 47.31 HINDPETRO 36.95 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 0.74 0.81 BANKNIFTY 0.81 0.72 SBIN 0.54 0.60 ICICIBANK 0.45 0.38 RELIANCE 0.43 0.45 2
FII Statistics for November 18, 2016 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 1580.17 2177.24 (597.07) 214561 13711.10 5.71 43629.67 43646.38 (16.71) 1332076 82859.73 2.23 7975.15 7132.33 842.82 897536 53834.06 0.32 4694.33 4642.32 52.02 128370 8186.43 1.74 TOTAL 57879.33 57598.27 281.06 2572543 158591.32 1.81 Turnover on November 18, 2016 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 260712 17129.38-10.12 4135149 270869.72-50.08 527964 34232.01 5.25 344634 23896.35-11.59 TOTAL 5268459 346127.46-44.28 Nifty Spot = 8074.10 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 8100 55.55 Sell 8200 24.15 31.40 68.60 8131.40 Buy 8100 80.65 Sell 8000 42.65 38.00 62.00 8062.00 Buy 8100 55.55 Sell 8300 9.10 46.45 153.55 8146.45 Buy 8100 80.65 Sell 7900 21.00 59.65 140.35 8040.35 Buy 8200 24.15 Sell 8300 9.10 15.05 84.95 8215.05 Buy 8000 42.65 Sell 7900 21.00 21.65 78.35 7978.35 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (November Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis 3
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ACC 1,279 1,294 1,306 1,322 1,334 ADANIPORTS 252 257 262 267 271 AMBUJACEM 189 194 197 202 205 ASIANPAINT 883 896 912 925 941 AUROPHARMA 706 714 721 729 736 AXISBANK 468 471 475 478 482 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,532 2,553 2,567 2,588 2,602 BANKBARODA 170 174 176 179 181 BHEL 131 133 134 136 137 BPCL 628 635 641 648 654 BHARTIARTL 292 298 301 307 310 INFRATEL 341 346 353 358 365 BOSCH 18,721 18,974 19,158 19,411 19,595 CIPLA 535 543 549 557 564 COALINDIA 301 304 307 309 312 DRREDDY 3,089 3,152 3,205 3,268 3,321 EICHERMOT 20,483 21,138 21,536 22,191 22,589 GAIL 415 421 431 437 448 GRASIM 791 805 815 829 838 HCLTECH 745 755 767 776 788 HDFCBANK 1,192 1,202 1,219 1,229 1,246 HDFC 1,233 1,242 1,252 1,260 1,270 HEROMOTOCO 2,842 2,889 2,917 2,964 2,992 HINDALCO 160 163 166 169 172 HINDUNILVR 785 794 804 813 824 ICICIBANK 259 262 265 268 272 IDEA 68 70 71 72 73 INDUSINDBK 1,077 1,089 1,110 1,122 1,143 INFY 908 914 924 930 939 ITC 224 226 229 230 233 KOTAKBANK 768 773 779 785 791 LT 1,350 1,360 1,371 1,382 1,393 LUPIN 1,400 1,409 1,417 1,426 1,435 M&M 1,210 1,225 1,236 1,251 1,262 MARUTI 4,841 4,896 4,943 4,998 5,045 NTPC 149 154 157 162 165 ONGC 271 273 275 277 280 POWERGRID 189 190 193 194 197 RELIANCE 977 982 987 993 998 SBIN 272 274 277 279 282 SUNPHARMA 651 670 681 700 712 TCS 2,081 2,103 2,126 2,149 2,172 TATAMTRDVR 289 294 297 302 306 TATAMOTORS 457 464 469 476 481 TATAPOWER 69 69 70 71 72 TATASTEEL 362 373 393 405 424 TECHM 433 439 444 450 455 ULTRACEMCO 3,228 3,310 3,358 3,440 3,488 WIPRO 428 433 437 442 447 YESBANK 1,150 1,165 1,175 1,191 1,201 ZEEL 428 437 452 461 476 4
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