PDNA Post Disaster Damage and Needs Assessment, methodologies and toolkit The PDNA 1. A process 2. ECLAC s s past experience 3. A systemic, integrated approach 4. An cooperative effort that encompasses the UN system s s knowledge and experience 5. A response that leads to resilience and sustainability 6. A tool for increased capacity to respond at the country level Government capacity building and strengthening pre- disaster recovery preparation UN country team s s pre-positioning positioning for response to ensure prompt coordinated action Evaluation 2 1
Background to PDNA initiative Disasters change the development profile and dynamics Need to look at impacts in a systemic manner, as part of socioeconomic analysis Response has not been consistent either by countries affected or by donors and international agencies The post Hyogo declaration and plan of action mandate: The international system must improve its response mechanisms while advocating for a better risk management process Countries must take concrete steps to act on a commonly agreed plan and develop their national platforms Past experiences and existing knowledge and tools need to be integrated in a systemic, coherent process Evaluation 3 A holistic, systemic conceptual and operational framework SOCIAL -Social networks (security and solidarity) -Family ties and extended family -Violence and security PHYSICAL HUMAN -Health -Education -Type and quality of settlement and housing -Infrastructure conditions (basic lifeline services) -Geomorphologic conditions (slopes, coasts, floodplains) NATURAL -Clean water -Clean air -Biodiversity and ecosystem (microclimate) FINANCIAL -Access to credit -Land tenure and ownership - Formalizing asset s s value Evaluation 4 2
HUMAN 100 PHYSICAL 10 SOCIAL 1 FINANCIAL NATURAL Past Current Mid-term Long term DISASTER IMPACT Evaluation 5 ECLAC s s experience over 30 years From 1973 in Central America to 2004 Indian Ocean disaster and hurricanes in the Caribbean in 2005 What it does: provide a standardized sectoral tool, increasingly internationally accepted valuation of disaster damage (physical, in assets, capital, stock, material goods) and losses (in flows of goods and services, in income, in costs) How it does it: by sector analysis comparing the pre disaster, the non disaster expected outcome and the post-disaster scenario, with participation of sectoral experts and institutions (national and international) What it provides: a valuation that identifies the gap (delta) to be filled, sector by sector (pointing to priorities of sectors, location and social stratification of damage and losses), and a tool for reconstruction strategic planning (needs assessment beyond emergency and humanitarian assistance) Evaluation 6 3
Some basic concepts and definitions Damage, losses and needs Livelihoods and systemic approach to needs Response, recovery (early and otherwise), rehabilitation and reconstruction Clusters, sectors and areas Tools, methodologies and processes Cooperation, coordination, harmonization Evaluation 7 Simplified Definitions of Disaster Effects Immediate Effects Medium-Term Effects Damage Total or partial destruction of physical assets Occur during the event itself Valued at replacement cost Total Effects : Damage + Losses Losses Changes in economic flows Occur after the event, over a relatively long time period Valued at current prices NEEDS (IMMEDIATE, RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION) Evaluation 8 4
Dynamic effects Socio-economic effects Repercussions are felt in the national, local or regional economy and social conditions, as a consequence of the disaster (natural event) It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / activities affected Are measurable as Growth rate and level of GDP Performance of the external sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment) Performance of public finances Price variations and inflation Income and employment Livelihood means Asset variations (savings, investment capacity, etc.) Year rate 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 GDP GROWTH RATE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ]Before disaster After disaster Evaluation 9 CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formation GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION * DISASTER * DISASTER POTENTIAL GROWTH PATH ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATION * * * TIME Evaluation 10 5
Disasters Impact on El Salvador s GDP 5.0 4.5 4.0 MITCH 3.5 3.0 STAN 2.5 DROUGHT 2.0 1.5 EARTHQUAKE 1.0 0.5 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Growth without disasters Growth with Mitch, earthquakes, drought and hurricane Stan Evaluation 11 25 Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, India 20 15 10 5 0 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 -5 SGDP with disasters Logarítmica (Potential growth without disastrs) Potential growth without disastrs Logarítmica (SGDP with disasters) Evaluation 12 6
Gujarat (INDIA): Total Damage from disasters and Calamity fund budgeted resources (Crores of Rupees) 3500.00 3000.00 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 0.00 90-91 91-92 92-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 97-98 1998 1999 99-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Total Damage (Crores) Calamity Relief Fund (from Finance Commision, Delhi) Amount spent on calamity relief and rehabilitation buy State Govt. 2004 2005 Evaluation 13 Evaluation 14 7
Why a Post-disaster recovery needs assessment process? 1. Not a new methodology: building on existing tools and knowledge 2. Promote coherence, consistency and appropriate response that leads to recovery 3. Insert in a systemic risk management process as part of development agenda 4. Allow transition from emergency to recovery, recuperation and reconstruction 5. CAPACITY BUILDING: at the national level within governmental institutions and to the UN country team to enable pre-disaster response capabilities Evaluation 15 The Timing of Disaster Effects Emergency needs Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response to recovery in order to reduce losses) Damage Full Reconstruction and Economic Recovery 5 yrs Losses Time, months Evaluation 16 8
Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response to reconstruction in order to reduce losses) Plans and Programmes Post Disaster Recovery Emergency Response Reconstruction Needs Assessment Development Data EMERGENCY Before NEEDS Quick and dirty (Flash appeal) 3-77 days NEEDS NEEDS After Local level Area based Community Driven Recovery Framework (Donors Reconstruction Strategy (IFIs working 2 weeks Conference) 1 month Group) 2-33 months Evaluation 17 The principles on which to build the process ( things( things that matter) The MULTI layer approach: multisectoral multi-institutional, institutional, multi- hazards and multi-risk, multi-cultural The GAP to be addressed: an area of needs is not adequately identified (after the emergency, and as humanitarian needs are identified requirements must be met while the reconstruction process is under way) The OVERLAP to be avoided: proactive response after a disaster may lead to multiple, sometimes repetitive assessments by many actors (that must add together but should not repeat the process) The SUBSIDIARY PRINCIPLE: : UN (and other bilateral and NGOs) cooperation is to supply the affected with what they cannot provide by themselves: a demand driven process The VISION and MISSION to be shared: (an agreed conceptual framework): recovery as part of a process that moves forward (not back to) a sustainable development process that is defined by the affected Evaluation 18 9
"Getting our act together": Respond coherently to needs of countries, governments, communities, affected population (lead by example) Acting in a coordinated way summing the strengths of all UN agencies and bodies, both through the country teams and using headquarters resources) Accelerate response process as soon as emergency appears Tailor response to the affected (country, government, community, population) needs (proactive but not imposing) When is an external intervention warranted or necessary, and how is the response made through enhanced capacity at the national and local level Evaluation 19 ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF PDNA Composition of tool(s): multisectoral, interdisciplinary, interinstitutional nstitutional Timeliness: within the window of opportunity,, not interfering with emergency actions, but reflect immediate response Ensure full coverage and avoid duplication The need for judgment calls or the educated guessing of experts: respect and build on that expertise Bridge (or better) link emergency needs assessments (as done by countries, NGOs, IFRC, OCHA, UNDAC, etc.) through rapid needs assessments to the needs (and capacities) for reconstruction Coordination at the top that allows (promotes) teamwork at the ground, field, level: UN country team to establish procedures that allow for cooperative, inclusive process that will be followed in post disaster process. Recognize and interact with national governmental capacities Recognize that the ownership of the recovery and reconstruction, i.e. the definition of the needs, is of the affected (community, local, national) Training before the disaster based on local capacities, on existing tools and methodologies. Evaluation 20 10
SECTOR BY SECTOR BUILDING BLOCKS AND CROSS CUTTING ISSUES (sectoral and area approaches complement and feed on each other) Social Sectors Housing Health Education, culture, sports Infrastructure Transport and communications Energy Water and sewerage Productive sectors Goods: agriculture, industry Services: commerce, tourism, etc. Global impact Sustainability (effects on the environment) Equity and rights (Gender perspective) Livelihoods (Employment and social conditions) Absorptive capacity (Macroeconomic conditions) Governance (security and institutional capacities) Evaluation 21 A Cartesian perspective : the axis to put needs in perspective EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY REHABILIATION - RECONSTRUCTION HORIZONTALLY: data collection, information management that leads to multi-tiered tiered analysis from emergency through reconstruction CROSS CUTTING, INCLUSIVE OF SECTORS S S EXPERTISE AND INSTITUTIONS Evaluation 22 11
FROM LOCAL TO DEVELOPMENT REGIONAL RECONSTRUCTION RECOVERY NEEDS NATIONAL - INTERNATIONAL PRE-EXISTING EXISTING RISK CONDITIONS BASELINE Evaluation 23 PRE DISASTER (from early warning to immediate coping) EMERGENCY AND HUMANTIARIAN RESPONSE (immediate) RECOVERY PHASE (immediate or early to short term) RECONSTRUCTION PHASE (short to long term) DEVELOPMENT AGENDA Base line data Statistical offices, economic and social indicators Disaster management agencies, OCHA, IFRC, local Red Cross/Crescent, NGOs, bilateral donors (OFDA, ECHO, etc.) Economic, technical and sector capacities, financing needs and gaps HDI, MDGs, Country s development strategy, CAS, etc. Risk and vulnerability assessments Meteorological and geographic hazard mapping (national, regional, international sources), GIS, remote sensing, statistical series, etc. Existing response plans, resources, capacities, communities at risk, etc. Hotspots, GRIP (as information provider) Disaster damage and losses data Preparedness: prepositioned shelters, supplies, evacuation and response plans, etc. Emergency, relief institutions and donors Financial ministries, international financial institutions, donors and NGOs (consultative groups, donor conferences, etc.) Planning ministries, inline ministries, UNDP, IFIs, donors and NGOs Needs assessment Improved preparedness, early warning, organization and training, capacity building Damage and loss assessment and damage and needs identified sectorally and at local level Reconstruction needs based on dialogue /negotiation with affected community / population / geographical or political unit / countrywide Improved resilience, risk reduction, risk transfer and inclusion of risk appropriation to development framework Strategic planning recovery and reconstruction framework Evaluation 24 12
PRE DISASTER (from early warning to immediate coping) EMERGENCY AND HUMANTIARIAN RESPONSE (immediate) RECOVERY PHASE (immediate or early to short term) RECONSTRUCTION PHASE (short to long term) DEVELOPMENT AGENDA Base line data Statistical offices, economic and social indicators Disaster management agencies, OCHA, IFRC, local Red Cross/Crescent, NGOs, bilateral donors (OFDA, ECHO, etc.) Economic, technical and sector capacities, financing needs and gaps HDI, MDGs, Country s development strategy, CAS, etc. Risk and vulnerability assessments Meteorological and geographic hazard mapping (national, regional, international sources), GIS, remote sensing, statistical series, etc. Existing response plans, resources, capacities, communities at risk, etc. Hotspots, GRIP (as information provider) Disaster damage and losses data Preparedness: prepositioned shelters, supplies, evacuation and response plans, etc. Emergency relief information (affected population, mortality/morbidity, shelters, wat/san, nutrition, health, etc.) PDNA Financial ministries, international financial institutions, donors and NGOs (consultative groups, donor conferences, etc.) Planning ministries, inline ministries, UNDP, IFIs, donors and NGOs Needs assessment Improved preparedness, early warning, organization and training, capacity building Damage and loss assessment and damage and needs identified sectoral and at local level Reconstruction needs based on dialogue /negotiation with affected community / population / geographical or political unit / countrywide Improved resilience, risk reduction, transfer and inclusion of risk appropriation to development framework Strategic planning recovery and reconstructio n framework Development of programmes, projects and actions Implementation, monitoring, evaluation and reassessment Evaluation 25 Time frame Response Recovery Reconstruction Strengthening capacity What does your agency produce in terms of data and analysis? What inputs in terms of data do you require (Source, Geographic and Demographic levels, etc.) What methodological tools do you use to determine needs? Who are your partners? Who are your customers? Evaluation 26 13
Calendar schedule for PDNA first phase 2006 2007 November December January /February March / April May / June July Deliverable 1 Interagency consultation Initiated October[1] IRP retreat 20-23 23 November, Turin Initial (launching) meeting of HLC and TOC 24 November, Geneva Completion of compilation of existing (known and in sectorally or generally applied methodologies and applied tools Second meeting of TOC Deliverable 2 Interagency consultation Identification, recruitment and conduction of consultancy-specialized specialized work Preparation of abridged first PDNA draft Third meeting of TOC Deliverable 3 Interagency consultation Proposal for minimum "core" toolkit (for information management, for needs analysis and assessment, for delivery formats and presentation Proposal for phase II (field testing of deliverables 2 and 3, schedule for developing of PNDA, including budget and technical content of PDNA First meeting of HLC Second meeting of HLC Evaluation 27 Thank you. Reference material: - Handbook for socioeconomic and environmental evaluation of disasters (www.cepal.org/mexico, desastres ) - Disasters and development (series 2005) - Assessment documents since 1970s WEB PAGE: (www.cepal.org/mexico), desastres ) Evaluation 28 14