INVESTKentucky Conference Louisville, KY June 6, 2013 Tony Thompson EVP, Chief Operating Officer and President, PJ Food Service Lance Tucker SVP, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer
Forward Looking Statements and Additional Information Certain matters discussed in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Generally, the use of words such as expect, estimate, believe, anticipate, will, forecast, plan, project, or similar words identify forward-looking statements that we intend to be included within the safe harbor protections provided by the federal securities laws. Such statements may relate to projections concerning business performance, revenue, earnings, contingent liabilities, commodity costs, margins, unit growth, and other financial and operational measures. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those matters expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. The risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are involved in our forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: aggressive changes in pricing or other marketing or promotional strategies by competitors which may adversely affect sales; and new product and concept developments by food industry competitors; changes in consumer preferences and adverse general economic and political conditions, including increasing tax rates, and their resulting impact on consumer buying habits; the impact that product recalls, food quality or safety issues, and general public health concerns could have on our restaurants; failure to maintain our brand strength and quality reputation; the ability of the company and its franchisees to meet planned growth targets and operate new and existing restaurants profitably, which could be impacted by challenges securing financing, finding suitable store locations or securing required domestic or foreign government permits and approvals; increases in or sustained high costs of food ingredients and other commodities; disruption of our supply chain due to sole or limited source of suppliers or weather, drought, disease or other disruption beyond our control; increased risks associated with our international operations, including economic and political conditions in our international markets and difficulty in meeting planned sales targets and new store growth for our international operations; increased employee compensation, benefits, insurance, regulatory compliance and similar costs, including increased costs resulting from federal health care legislation; the credit performance of our franchise loan program; the impact of the resolution of current or future claims and litigation, and current or proposed legislation impacting our business; currency exchange and interest rates; failure to effectively execute succession planning, and our reliance on the services of our Founder and CEO who also serves as our brand spokesperson; and disruption of critical business or information technology systems, and risks associated with security breaches, including theft of company and customer information. For discussion of these and other risks that may cause actual results to differ from expectations, refer to Papa John s Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 30, 2012, on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the section entitled Risk Factors, and all subsequent filings under Sections 13(a), 13(c), 14 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This presentation also includes non-gaap financial measures to describe our performance, which we believe are useful in analyzing results and facilitating comparison with prior periods. Additional disclosures relating to non-gaap measures, including the reconciliations of those measures to corresponding GAAP measures are available in this report and on our website at www.papajohns.com under the heading Investor Relations.
The Papa John s Story Papa John s was founded in 1984 by John Schnatter, who currently serves as its Founder, Chairman and CEO Quality drives all aspects of the brand Better Ingredients. Better Pizza. Commitment to service, image, locations and team Papa John s is the 3 rd largest global pizza chain with 4,197 units as of March 31, 2013 North America 3,221 (80% franchised) International 976 (95% franchised) Growth through taking market share
Differentiators and Growth Drivers Brand strength, based on our quality position Commitment to system health Active and engaged Founder Leverageable Infrastructure and Systems Additional 3,000+ international units and 1,000+ domestic units with modest additional investment Leadership position in technology Strong cash flow/conservative balance sheet Excellent unit economics Long-term, stable growth model
Recent Recognition Buffalo Chicken Pizza earned 2013 Nations Restaurant News MenuMasters Award as Best Limited Time Offer Named Most Identified NFL Brand Sponsor by Avid NFL Fans in 2013 Unseated Gatorade, who had led this survey for 15 consecutive years Rated #1 in customer satisfaction among limited-service restaurants in the 2012 American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) Achieved the highest score ever by an individual brand For 11 out of the past 13 years Papa John s has achieved the highest score among national pizza chains Voted 2012 Pizza Brand of the Year by Harris Poll EquiTrend Measured and compared brand health for over 1,500 brands in more than 50 categories surveying over 37,000 U.S. Consumers Pizza category included Papa John s, Pizza Hut, Domino s, and Little Caesar s
An Active Founder
An Active Founder
Momentum at Papa John s Nine consecutive years of positive or even North America comparable sales growth; 3.6% growth for 2012 International segment achieved profitability in 2012 for the first time; 7.1% comparable sales in 2012 Strong two-year comparable sales growth of 7.0% for North America and 12.2% for international Continue to maintain premium positioning despite competitive environment Ability to leverage infrastructure, both domestically and internationally Significant runway for global unit expansion and marketing spend; 280 net global units opened in 2012 Rapid growth in online and mobile ordering channels
Competitive Environment Papa John s national pricing generally in the $11 to $12 range for a large pizza National competitors continue to promote a lower national price point The Big 3 chains continue to consistently take share from regional chains and independents
Initiatives Strengthen the Papa John s Brand, using our BIBP Quality Leadership Position Drive Global Unit Development Increase Global Sales Consistently and Sustainably Leverage International Infrastructure to Increase Profitability Grow Digital Ordering Channels Globally
Papa John s Quality Campaign Nobody Does What Papa John s Does Enhanced quality/ingredients based stories authentically communicated by founder
Development Incentive Plan Zero Franchise Fee Royalty Reduction Set of Two Middleby Ovens Credit toward First Food Order Reduces investment to open a franchise restaurant to approximately $200,000 or a little lower Total value of over $60,000
Domestic Development Status Approximately 300 Units in Pipeline The majority are scheduled to open over the next two to three years Primary growth is expected in Northeast, Upper Midwest and West under-penetrated regions and in Canada Additional Total Traditional Restaurant Opportunity of 700 to 800 Units Opportunity to open several hundred additional Nontraditional Restaurants (airports, colleges, etc.)
Sales Driving Initiatives Increased National Marketing due to New Unit Growth and Increased Sales Royalty Rebate Opportunities for Franchisees Earned by Driving Sales Authentic Advertising Campaign Founder as Spokesperson Official Pizza of the National Football League NFL football and pizza an outstanding combination
International Built to support steady, consistent growth Outstanding momentum Operating income of $3.1 million in 2012; 137 net unit openings in 2012 Approximately 1,100 units in pipeline, most of which are scheduled to open over the next six years Expect to open 120-135 net units in 2013; Approximately 50% in Asia/Middle East and continued significant growth in UK/Europe and the Americas
International Units at March 31, 2013 Middle East South Central Americas Asia Bahrain 20 Cayman Islands 2 China 179 Egypt 14 Chile 19 Guam 1 Jordan 6 Colombia 16 India 25 Kuwait 25 Costa Rica 14 Malaysia 19 Lebanon 3 Dominican Republic 10 Philippines 14 Oman 7 Ecuador 13 South Korea 73 Qatar 11 El Salvador 10 TOTAL 311 Saudi Arabia 6 Mexico 59 United Arab Emerates 23 Nicaragua 2 TOTAL 115 Panama 4 Peru 19 Europe Puerto Rico 14 Azerbaijan 1 Trinidad 6 Cyprus 9 Venezuela 29 Ireland 49 TOTAL 217 Russia 42 Turkey 16 United Kingdom 216 GRAND TOTAL 976 TOTAL 333
Drive Online and Emerging Channels Continued growth in online sales mix over 40% and continuing to grow Strong growth in mobile ordering (iphone and Android apps) Online has many benefits Higher average ticket and order frequency Higher customer satisfaction (increase in order accuracy and more relaxed ordering experience) Potential to save labor at store level
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
2012 Highlights 18.1% Earnings Growth ($2.55 adjusted vs. $2.16) in 2012, on top of 18% growth in 2011, excluding BIBP in 2010 Global Sales Increase of 10.6% over Prior Year, Including 53 rd Week of Operations Strong System-wide Comparable Sales Increases of 3.6% for North America and 7.1% for International 280 Worldwide Net Unit Openings International Segment Achieved Profitability ($3.1 million)
First Quarter 2013 Highlights 6.3% Earnings Growth ($0.84 adjusted vs. $0.79) in Q1-2013 versus strong Q1-2012 results Global Sales Increase of 6.1% over Prior Year System-wide Comparable Sales Increases of 1.6% for North America and 8.2% for International 34 Worldwide Net Unit Openings
2013 Guidance (as of May 7, 2013) EPS $2.90 to $3.00 North America Comp Sales +1.5% to +2.5% International Comp Sales +5.0% to +7.0% International System Sales +20% to +25% Capital Expenditures $55-$60 million Worldwide Net Unit Growth 230 to 260 North America 110 to 125 International 120 to 135
Worldwide Growth 290 240 190 140 90 40-10 237 172 177 89 113 74 137 131 143 124 90 103 41-1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 280 North America International Projected worldwide net new unit openings in 2013 of 230 to 260 units (110 to 125 in North America and 120 to 135 International)
Commodity Outlook 2012 restaurant cost of sales was 0.9% lower than the prior year due to lower commodity costs, primarily cheese, and supplier incentives Expect 1.0% to 1.5% higher commodities for full year 2013 Current year guidance assumes cheese block price around $1.80; 2012 price was $1.69; 2011 price was $1.80 Began using forward pricing arrangements for cheese in second quarter 2012 for a portion of Companyowned restaurants cheese purchases
Domestic Company-owned Unit Economics Mar. 2013(a) Dec. 2012(a) Average Sales $952,000 $949,000 Operating Income (b) $182,000 $187,000 Restaurant Operating Margin 19.1% 19.7% Cash Flow (c) $130,000 $133,000 Average Investment Cost (New Unit) $240,000 $240,000 (a) Represents a trailing 12 month period. Both periods include a 53 rd week of operations (14 week period in the fourth quarter of 2012) (b) Trailing 12 month period operating income (restaurant sales less total domestic company-owned restaurant expenses) (c) Represents "in the box" results, which excludes certain G&A costs and non-operating expenses, but includes food cost with full PJFS margin.
Focus on Cash Flow Strong Free Cash Flow (FCF)* $40.7 Million Trailing 12 Month Period Distribution of Free Cash Flow to Shareholders in the form of share repurchases $106.1 million of Stock Repurchases in 2012; $49.9 million Repurchased in 2013 through April 30th Approximately $65.6 Million Remaining for Repurchase under Current Board Authorization 21.8 Million Actual Shares Outstanding as of April 30, 2013 0.8x Debt to EBITDA Increased revolving line of credit from $175 million to $300 million in April 2013 *Net cash provided by operating activities less purchase of property and equipment
Three-Year Financial Highlights $1,400.0 $1,300.0 $1,200.0 $1,100.0 $1,000.0 $900.0 $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 Revenues (millions) $1,126.4 $1,217.9 2010 2011 2012 Net Income (millions) $48.2 $54.7 $1,321.2 $61.0 2010 2011 2012 +8.5% - 2012 +8.1% - 2011 +11.4% - 2012 +13.5% - 2011 $100.0 $90.0 $80.0 $70.0 $60.0 Operating Income (millions) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $79.5 $87.0 $98.6 2010 2011 2012 $1.83 EPS $2.16 2010 2011 2012 $2.55 +13.3% - 2012 + 9.4% - 2011 +18.1% - 2012 +18.0% - 2011 2010 excludes BIBP; 2012 excludes the benefit of the 53 rd week of operations and the Incentive Contribution. See reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures at the end of this presentation for additional information.
Recap of Investment Proposition Brand Image/Product Quality/Founder Engagement Experienced Management Team Leveragable Infrastructure and Systems - Worldwide Commitment to Continued Domestic Unit Development, with Aggressive Incentives Extraordinary International Opportunities/Robust International Development Pipeline Strong Cash Flow/Conservative Balance Sheet Return of Free Cash Flow to Shareholders Targeted sustainable EPS growth of over 10% (14-18% projected in 2013, compared to adjusted 2012 EPS of $2.55)
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures Certain financial measures we present in this presentation exclude the 53 rd week of operations, the impact of a marketing incentive contribution ( Incentive Contribution ) and the consolidation of BIBP, which are not measures that are defined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ( GAAP ). These non-gaap measures should not be construed as a substitute for or a better indicator of the company s performance than the company s GAAP measures. Management believes presenting the financial information without these measures is important for comparability purposes. In addition, management uses these non- GAAP measures to allocate resources, and analyze trends and underlying operating performance. Annual cash bonuses, and certain long-term incentive programs for various levels of management were based on financial measures that exclude the marketing incentive contribution and BIBP. The presentation of the non-gaap measures in this presentation is made alongside the most directly comparable GAAP measures. In this presentation, we refer to global restaurant sales, representing global company-owned and franchised sales. Management believes global sales information is useful in analyzing our results since our franchisees pay royalties that are based on a percentage of franchise sales. Franchise sales generate commissary revenue in the United States and in certain international markets. Global restaurant and comparable sales growth information is also useful in analyzing industry trends and the strength of our brand. Franchise restaurant sales are not included in company revenues. Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities, less the purchase of property and equipment. We view free cash flow as an important measure because it is one factor that management uses in determining the amount of cash available for discretionary investment. Free cash flow is not a term defined by GAAP and as a result our measure of free cash flow might not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. Free cash flow should not be construed as a substitute or a better indicator of our performance than our GAAP measures.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures (continued) Year Ended Quarter Dec. 30, Dec. 26, Mar 30, Mar 25, (In thousands, except per share amounts) 2012 2010 2013 2012 Revenues, as reported $ 1,342,653 $ 1,126,397 $ 355,604 $ 331,276 53rd week of operations (21,500) - - - Revenues, excluding 53rd week of operations $ 1,321,153 $ 1,126,397 $ 355,604 $ 331,276 Operating income, as reported $ 99,807 $ 86,744 $ 29,625 $ 27,256 BIBP cheese purchasing entity - (7,224) - - 53rd week of operations (4,145) - - - Incentive Contribution 2,971 - (250) 3,721 Operating income, excluding noted items $ 98,633 $ 79,520 $ 29,375 $ 30,977 Net income, as reported $ 61,660 $ 52,578 $ 19,306 $ 16,981 BIBP cheese purchasing entity - (4,339) - - 53rd week of operations (2,634) - - - Incentive Contribution 1,955 - (165) 2,439 Net income, excluding noted items $ 60,981 $ 48,239 $ 19,141 $ 19,420 Earnings per diluted share, as reported $ 2.58 $ 1.99 $ 0.85 $ 0.69 BIBP cheese purchasing entity - (0.16) - - 53rd week of operations (0.11) - - - Incentive Contribution 0.08 - (0.01) 0.10 Earnings per diluted share, excluding noted items $ 2.55 $ 1.83 $ 0.84 $ 0.79 Free Cash Flow Trailing 12 Months Net cash provided by operating activities $ 90,200 Purchase of property and equipment (49,473) Free cash flow $ 40,727 29