CHARTBOOK January 2019
Topic Page Market Returns 3-5 Valuations 6-19 Local Economics 20 28 Global Economics 29 35 Local Markets 36 44 Offshore Markets 45 51 Currencies 52 56 Commodities 57-62
Market Returns
Local Market Morningstar Direct as at: 31/01/2019
Offshore Market Morningstar Direct as at: 31/01/2019
Valuations
20 FTSE/JSE All Share 7-Year PE 18 16 14 12 10 8 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
20 FTSE/JSE Top 40 7-Year PE 18 16 14 12 10 8 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
18 FTSE/JSE Mid Cap 7-Year PE 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
26 FTSE/JSE Industrial 25 7-Year PE 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
16 FTSE/JSE Financial 15 7-Year PE 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
25 FTSE/JSE Resource 20 7-Year PE 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
19 FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property 7-Year PE 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
22 S&P 500 7-Year PE 20 18 16 14 12 10 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
Dow Jones Industrials 7-Year PE 20 18 16 14 12 10 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
FTSE 100 7-Year PE 18 16 14 12 10 8 2012/01/30 2013/01/30 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
24 Nikkei 225 7-Year PE 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 2012/01/31 2013/01/31 2014/01/31 2015/01/31 2016/01/31 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31
14 Hang Seng 7-Year PE 13 12 11 10 9 8 2012/01/25 2013/01/25 2014/01/25 2015/01/25 2016/01/25 2017/01/25 2018/01/25 2019/01/25
18 Euro Stoxx 50 7-Year PE 16 14 12 10 8 6 2012/02/01 2013/02/01 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
SA Economics
7,5 SA CPI 7-Year Growth 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2011/12/31 2012/12/31 2013/12/31 2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31
South Africa - Business Confidence Index 7-Year Growth 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 2011/12/31 2012/12/31 2013/12/31 2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31
10 SA Retail Sales YoY Growth (%) 5-Year Growth 8 6 4 2 0-2 2013/11/30 2014/11/30 2015/11/30 2016/11/30 2017/11/30 2018/11/30
7,5 SA CPI vs CRB Index 6-Year Price 510 7 500 6,5 6 490 5,5 480 5 470 4,5 4 460 3,5 450 2012/12/31 2013/12/31 2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31 SACPIYOY Index CRB CMDT Index
11,00 SA Bond Yields 5 vs 10 vs 20 vs 30 Year Yields 10,50 10,00 9,59 9,58 9,50 9,00 8,57 8,50 8,00 7,75 7,50 7,00 6,50 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
Implied SA 10 Year Bond Yield vs Actual Yield 10,00 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,72 6,00 1,93 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,17 8,57 2,00 1,00 2,63 0,00 US 10Y Avg Inf Diff SA CDS Spread SA 10Y SA 10yr Fair Value 6.72% Trading at 8.57% Cheap/(Expensive) 1.85%
JSE All Share Index vs Earnings 13-Year Returns 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 2005/04/22 2007/04/22 2009/04/22 2011/04/22 2013/04/22 2015/04/22 2017/04/22 ALSI Earnings ALSI Return
3,5 US 10 Year vs SA 10 Year 2-Year Yields 3,3 9,5 3,1 2,9 9 2,7 8,5 2,5 2,3 8 2,1 1,9 7,5 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31 US 10 Year Yield SA 10 Year Yield
Global Economics
Market Volatility Index (VIX) 5-Year Price 38 33 28 23 18 13 8 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
5 Eurozone - Consumer Confidence 5-Year Price 0-5 -10-15 -20 2014/01/31 2015/01/31 2016/01/31 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31
China (Mainland) - Consumer Confidence 5-Year Price 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 2013/11/30 2014/11/30 2015/11/30 2016/11/30 2017/11/30 2018/11/30
3,5 Developed Market Bond Yields 10 Year Yields 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2017/01/29 2018/01/29 2019/01/29 USGG10YR Index GUKG10 Index GTDEM10Y Govt
3,20 US Bond Yields 5 vs 10 vs 20 vs 30 Year Yields 3,10 3,00 3,00 2,90 2,83 2,80 2,70 2,64 2,60 2,50 2,45 2,40 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
Developed Market vs Emerging Market Returns 3-Year Growth 180 160 140 120 100 80 2016/02/02 2017/02/02 2018/02/02 2019/02/02 Ishares MSCI World Index Fund Indexed Line ishares MSCI Emerging Index Fund Indexed
Local Markets
Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index 5-Year Price 62000 57000 52000 47000 42000 37000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40 Tradeable Index 5-Year Price 53000 48000 43000 38000 33000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
63000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Resource 10 Index 5-Year Price 58000 53000 48000 43000 38000 33000 28000 23000 18000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
92000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Industrial 25 Index 5-Year Price 82000 72000 62000 52000 42000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Financial 15 Index 5-Year Price 18500 16500 14500 12500 10500 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
83000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Mid Cap Index 5-Year Price 78000 73000 68000 63000 58000 53000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
67000 Johannesburg Stock Exchange Small Cap Index 5-Year Price 62000 57000 52000 47000 42000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
700 SA Listed Prop Index 5-Year Price 650 600 550 500 450 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Offshore Markets
3000 S&P 500 Index 5-Year Price 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 2014/01/31 2015/01/31 2016/01/31 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31
28000 Dow Jones Industrial Index 5-Year Price 25000 22000 19000 16000 13000 2014/01/31 2015/01/31 2016/01/31 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31
FTSE 100 Index 5-Year Price 7750 7250 6750 6250 5750 5250 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Nikkei 225 Index 5-Year Price 24000 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Hang Seng Index 5-Year Price 33500 31500 29500 27500 25500 23500 21500 19500 17500 2014/01/30 2015/01/30 2016/01/30 2017/01/30 2018/01/30 2019/01/30
4000 Euro Stoxx 50 Index 5-Year Price 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Currencies
105 DXY US Dollar Currency Index 5-Year Price 100 95 90 85 80 75 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
US Dollar/South African Rand FX Spot Rate 5-Year Price 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
1,45 Euro/US Dollar FX Spot Rate 5-Year Price 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,05 1 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
1,8 UK Pound Sterling/US Dollar FX Spot Rate 5-Year Price 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
Commodities
1500 Gold Spot Commodity 5-Year Price 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
1600 Platinum Spot Commodity 5-Year Price 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
120 Brent Crude 5-Year Price 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2014/02/01 2015/02/01 2016/02/01 2017/02/01 2018/02/01 2019/02/01
8000 Copper Spot 5-Year Price 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 2014/01/31 2015/01/31 2016/01/31 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31
Commodity Research Bureau Index 5-Year Price 510 490 470 450 430 410 390 370 350 2014/01/31 2015/01/31 2016/01/31 2017/01/31 2018/01/31 2019/01/31
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