IMFC Global Investment Program Commentary: April, 2010 Performance Analysis April 0.56 % Winning Months 21 Year to date 2.93 % Losing Months 18 Total ROR (Ann.) 18.75 % Current Drawdown 1.18 % 1 Year 7.93 % Max Drawdown 10.47 % Avg Monthly Gain 5.73 % Sortino 2.02 Avg Monthly Loss 3.19 % Inception Feb., 2007 Monthly Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ytd 2007-6.55-3.03 9.05 5.56 4.44-7.01-3.72 11.52 7.13-1.25 2.27 17.69 % 2008 4.59 18.84-1.19-2.77 1.07 4.26-6.98-3.39 4.26 19.65 2.26 2.23 47.47 % 2009-0.88-0.47-3.63-1.84-2.95 0.27-0.04 4.39 3.31-4.28 8.77-3.99-2.14 % 2010-3.36 2.31 3.52 0.56 2.93 % Performance Attribution Sector Return Contribution Currencies 0.16 % Equity Indices - 0.03 % Energies 0.27 % Bonds 1.37 % Softs - 0.28 % Metals - 0.17 % Grains - 0.24 % Short Interest Rates - 0.50 % Meats - 0.02 %
Commentary and Analysis Performance in April was slightly positive and driven by small gains in most sectors long global bonds, precious metals, oil and commodity currencies and small losses in long interest rate and short Euro currency markets. Contributions from agricultural and soft commodities were mixed, with gains from short sugar and long soybean positions offset by losses from long rubber and short wheat positions. The net monthly number does not reveal the swing of returns intra-month as strong gains of close to 300 basis points in the first half of April were mostly given back in the latter half as commodities and commodity currencies reversed their earlier strength. Similarly, the modest monthly return also does not reveal the volatility that is re-emerging in markets typically an indicator of either bubbles or important transition/inflection points. The pattern of oscillating positive and negative performance from long industrial commodity positions that has been in place throughout 2010 along with both increased volatility and persistent strength from bond markets mirrors growing concern about both debt problems within the EU and sustainability of a liquidity driven economic recovery. This pattern of activity has resulted in a gradual shift to a more defensive stance in IMFC portfolios, reflected by stronger long positions in global bond markets and, interestingly, both the US Dollar and precious metals. At the same time, though still long, risk exposures to industrial commodities base metals and the oil complex- have been reduced by approximately 50%. To try to both understand the pattern of return over the past twelve months (approximately +11% for IMFC) and have an indication of what may happen, it is useful to try to itemize some of the major macro themes and events that have unfolded over this timeframe: A government reliant and liquidity driven economic recovery following a severe financial crisis and contraction, translating into liquidity driven rallies in all forms of risk assets commodities, commodity currencies and equities. China stockpiling base metals as evidenced by dramatically increased import levels over trend line average import levels. China announced intentions to acquire about 2.5 million tons of primary base metals. Of that intention, they have acquired almost 1 million tons.
Excess supply of industrial commodities. LME base metals inventories are 2-4 times higher than the average of the past several years. Oil inventories are 7% higher than the five year average. Acute debt problems within the EU and deteriorating sovereign financials (rapidly growing debt and deficit levels) globally. Overheating in China s property market and recent moves by China to slow growth (China raised minimum mortgage rates and down-payment ratios for second homes in mid-april) The combination of liquidity, strong government-induced growth in China (the World Bank estimates that 4/5ths of that growth is from the fixed asset/infrastructure building strategy o the government), Chinese stockpiling of raw materials and generally low interest rates fuelled a year-long economic recovery and rallies in both equity and commodity prices. It should be noted, however, that the rally in commodities was not particularly strong and may not be supported by fundamentals. Although Chinese stockpiling did inflate their import levels relative to trend line levels, inventories are more than abundant as noted above. As a result, futures markets have not priced risk premiums or positive convenience yields into commodities. This fact can be seen by comparing the rise in the spot CRB index to the rise of the futures CRB index. From the Dec/08 low to Jan/10 high, the spot index increased by 44% compared with 31% in the futures index, implying a 13% negative roll yield for holding commodities that are in abundant supply. The key question (always) going forward is what next? If commodities are in abundant supply, China moves to curb growth, debt problems continue to magnify within the EU and bond markets start pricing in risk premiums (higher rates) to compensate for deteriorating sovereign financials, what is the outlook for risk assets? Can a liquidity driven recovery be extended while real reforms to solve global debt problems are implemented? In the early stages of recovery, these concerns are ignored as they seem further out in time. But today, after a year of growing debts and deficits, the concerns are starting to show up in the markets. As the chart below indicates, since about the end of 2009, commodities have consolidated and equities have experienced some meaningful corrections and increased volatility.
This all leads us to ask the following simple question: are the markets simply correcting a new bull move in risk assets or was the past year nothing but a bear market bounce? Which answer plays out will depend on both future events and, importantly, investor confidence and willingness to finance continued stimulus. Investor confidence though is only known after the fact, by their actions in the market. And until such indications are revealed, IMFC will maintain a slightly more defensive stance with both (reduced) exposure to risk assets balanced with hedged long positions in bonds and outright longs in both the US Dollar against the Euro and in precious metals.
Notable Winners: Long bonds Long precious metals, oil complex and commodity currencies Short sugar Notable Losers: Long base metals Long European short-rate futures Short wheat IMFC 70 University Avenue, Suite 1200, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2M4 tel: 416 862 2376 www.imfc.ca Important Information: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures trading is speculative and involves substantial risk. Potential investors should note that the value of an investment may go down as well as up. There is a risk that an investment will be lost entirely or in part. An investment in the Program is speculative and involves a high degree of risk and is not intended as a complete investment program. There is no guarantee of trading performance. An investment should only be made after consultation with independent qualified sources of investment and tax advice. This communication is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an invitation to make an investment in any IMFC program nor does it constitute a public offering to sell a fund or program. Investors should review the Offering Memorandum and Disclosure Document in their entirety for a complete description of IMFC funds and programs. Applications for IMFC funds or programs will only be considered on the terms set out in the Offering Memorandum or Disclosure Document. The information in this material is subject to change without notice and IMFC will not be held liable for any inaccuracies or misprints.