TRADING TODAY December 19, 2016 Indices Today s % close chg Sensex 26489-0.11 Nifty 8139-0.17 Nifty 500 6977-0.18 Bank Nifty 18312-0.48 BSE 500 3507-0.23 BSE Mid-Cap 12236-0.04 Technical Desk Dealing Desk Statistical Data Third Party Products Update BSE Small-Cap 12113-0.25 BSE Auto 20235 0.45 BSE Health 15219 0.05 BSE FMCG 7880-0.67 BSE IT 10033 0.56 BSE PSU 7743-0.87 BSE Bankex 20985-0.55 BSE Oil & Gas 11896-0.93 BSE Metal 10429-1.58 BSE Cons Dur 11050 0.62 Technical Desk Market Outlook: Markets traded within the previous weeks range with a negative bias. Due to lack luster trade, follow-thru buying was missing. Our view, Every Pullback Remains Selling Opportunity remains unchanged. It continues to be Sell on Rallies Market. Nifty remained under selling pressure throughout the session. Resistance is seen at 8230 followed by 8275 level. As long as it sustains below these levels, it is likely to remain under pressure. On sustaining below 8120 level, it can extend down till 8050 level followed 8000 level. Failure to sustain below 8120 can see a pullback toward 8180 level and 8230 level. BSE Cap Good 13771-0.22 BSE Realty 1284-0.10 BSE Power 1995-0.45 Support: 8120 / 8180 Resistance: 8180 / 8230 Levels to Watch Sensex Nifty Day s High 26595 8179 Day s Low 26455 8127 Nifty Intraday Levels to Watch Support Resistance Nifty 8120 / 8180 8180 / 8230 20 DSMA 8128 50 DSMA 8386 Equity Advisory Desk Tel.: 022 66121245 Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 1
Weekly Technical Outlook Indices Nifty Bank Nifty Range 8330 / 7650 18900 / 17840 Resistance 8220 / 8330 18600 / 18900 Support 8050 / 7920 18150 / 17850 Outlook: Markets traded within the previous weeks range with a negative bias. Due to lack luster trade, follow-thru buying was missing. Our view, Every Pullback Remains Selling Opportunity remains unchanged. It continues to be Sell on Rallies Market. NIFTY On the weekly time frame, Nifty has formed an Inside Bar, i.e. High & Low of the current bar remain within the previous Bar. This shows that the upside pullback has come to a Halt. As long as it holds below Resistance of 8220 (200 Days SMA) followed by 8280 (High of previous bar) & 8330 (cluster of retracements), it is likely to remain under pressure. A break below 8050 (Low of previous bar) will lead to further downside till 7940-7920 levels, where support is seen. A decisive break below 7900 (50% retracement of the move from 6825.80 to 8967.70) can see further weakness till 7650-7700 zone, which can be followed by 7350 levels (over the next few weeks). For Nifty to move higher a weekly close above 8330 is required until then it remains weak & every pullback remains Selling Opportunities. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 2
Bank nifty: Bank Nifty: It also formed an Inside Bar (weekly chart), which means upside can be restricted, unless we see a decisive break & close above the Inside Bar. Bank Nifty closed at 18312.80, which is the lowest weekly close in past 23 weeks. It is likely to remain under pressure as long as it holds below resistance of 18600-18900 zone. Support remains at 18150 & 17840 (38.20% retracement of the move from 13407 to 20575), below which it can extend weakness till 17200-17000 zone. Below this, further weakness can be seen. Bank-Nifty / Nifty ratio - remains flat. While the ratio has given a breakdown from an upward-sloping channel, it is likely to remain under pressure. This is another negative data point for the Market s direction as this ratio is directly proportional to Markets Direction. Bank-Nifty / Nifty ratio can weaken another 5-6% over the next few weeks. As expected, ZEELTD, HUL, ITC, HMCL, BHEL, GRASIM, ACC, BPCL, remained nearly 4-5% down in previous week Stock that can under-perform this week EIM, BOSCH, CIPLA, NTPC, SUNPH, BAJAUTO, HMCL, HCLTECH, TATAPOWER Stock that can out-perform this week TAMO, RIL, INFY, PWRGD, INFRATEL 10 Nifty stocks that gave lowest weekly close in past 5 or above months: ITC, ACC, BHEL, UTCEM, HDFCBK, APAINT, SUNPH, AURO, COAL, KMB follow-thru selling in these names can lead to further weakness. Technical Recommendations Positional Calls Date Stocks Action Reco. Price Stop-loss Target Current price % change Comment 16-12-16 Biocon Dec 940 PE Buy 10.3 - - 7.5-27.18% Open Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 3
Pivot Table Name Daily Close S2 S1 PP R1 R2 ACC 1,295.00 1,279.20 1,263.40 1,298.85 1,314.65 1,334.30 ADANIPORTS 279.80 277.33 274.87 281.67 284.13 288.47 AMBUJACEM 202.05 200.15 198.25 201.80 203.70 205.35 ASIANPAINT 901.40 895.62 889.83 903.78 909.57 917.73 AUROPHARMA 690.50 669.90 649.30 684.70 705.30 720.10 AXISBANK 471.90 466.83 461.77 473.77 478.83 485.77 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,650.80 2,639.53 2,628.27 2,660.27 2,671.53 2,692.27 BANKBARODA 159.50 158.00 156.50 160.35 161.85 164.20 BHARTIARTL 309.55 305.47 301.38 312.53 316.62 323.68 BHEL 122.75 121.55 120.35 123.70 124.90 127.05 BOSCHLTD 20,240.00 20,003.67 19,767.33 20,146.33 20,382.67 20,525.33 BPCL 613.50 606.08 598.67 611.42 618.83 624.17 CIPLA 564.10 560.33 556.57 565.12 568.88 573.67 COALINDIA 288.05 285.93 283.82 289.22 291.33 294.62 DRREDDY 3,107.00 3,094.63 3,082.27 3,113.82 3,126.18 3,145.37 EICHERMOT 21,655.00 21,461.00 21,267.00 21,694.00 21,888.00 22,121.00 GAIL 415.00 409.27 403.53 416.38 422.12 429.23 GRASIM 816.40 808.63 800.87 822.22 829.98 843.57 HCLTECH 820.60 811.93 803.27 823.87 832.53 844.47 HDFC 1,266.55 1,259.70 1,252.85 1,268.85 1,275.70 1,284.85 HDFCBANK 1,185.00 1,176.03 1,167.07 1,180.52 1,189.48 1,193.97 HEROMOTOCO 3,130.00 3,102.08 3,074.17 3,143.97 3,171.88 3,213.77 HINDALCO 170.00 167.10 164.20 172.00 174.90 179.80 HINDUNILVR 820.40 813.67 806.93 820.33 827.07 833.73 ICICIBANK 256.10 253.97 251.83 256.98 259.12 262.13 IDEA 76.30 75.30 74.30 76.25 77.25 78.20 INDUSINDBK 1,087.10 1,072.82 1,058.53 1,083.48 1,097.77 1,108.43 INFRATEL 355.10 352.07 349.03 354.78 357.82 360.53 INFY 1,005.00 998.60 992.20 1,004.15 1,010.55 1,016.10 ITC 226.50 224.73 222.97 227.77 229.53 232.57 KOTAKBANK 718.85 715.03 711.22 721.02 724.83 730.82 LT 1,360.05 1,353.23 1,346.42 1,358.87 1,365.68 1,371.32 LUPIN 1,468.00 1,457.67 1,447.33 1,471.33 1,481.67 1,495.33 M&M 1,181.00 1,169.62 1,158.23 1,179.28 1,190.67 1,200.33 MARUTI 5,189.00 5,157.80 5,126.60 5,182.40 5,213.60 5,238.20 NTPC 159.65 158.73 157.82 160.47 161.38 163.12 ONGC 202.00 199.22 196.43 203.58 206.37 210.73 POWERGRID 184.30 181.92 179.53 184.08 186.47 188.63 RELIANCE 1,055.50 1,051.00 1,046.50 1,056.50 1,061.00 1,066.50 SBIN 265.25 263.42 261.58 264.88 266.72 268.18 SUNPHARMA 648.00 637.10 626.20 644.50 655.40 662.80 TATAMOTORS 471.70 465.63 459.57 470.27 476.33 480.97 TATAMTRDVR 297.25 294.35 291.45 298.30 301.20 305.15 TATAPOWER 76.80 75.92 75.03 77.18 78.07 79.33 TATASTEEL 414.50 410.40 406.30 416.60 420.70 426.90 TCS 2,284.80 2,261.20 2,237.60 2,275.60 2,299.20 2,313.60 TECHM 475.00 472.63 470.27 477.37 479.73 484.47 ULTRACEMCO 3,169.00 3,126.90 3,084.80 3,205.45 3,247.55 3,326.10 WIPRO 462.85 458.48 454.12 464.32 468.68 474.52 YESBANK 1,183.00 1,171.37 1,159.73 1,184.18 1,195.82 1,208.63 Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 4
Dealing Desk Investment Ideas Strategy should be to Buy idea like J Kumar Infra projects Ltd CMP @ 206.5 JKIL reported 2QFY17 earnings of Rs230m (+5% YoY) which were 5% below our expectations. Revenue declined 6% YoY as the execution suffered owing to heavy monsoons in Jul-Oct 16. EBITDA margin remained stable at 18.2% due to execution of high-margin work. The positives were commencement of Mumbai Metro work and ramp-up of JNPT road orders. Mumbai metro contributed 20% to JKIL s 2Q revenue with quarterly billing of Rs700m. JNPT execution was Rs400m vs Rs300m QoQ. 1HFY17 forms 42% of our full-year earnings forecast of Rs1.2bn (+19% YoY). We maintain our FY17/18 earnings forecasts as we are confident of strong execution ramp in Mumbai Metro (64% of current orderbook) and JNPT Road (17% of orderbook). BMC litigation is still under jurisdiction but it is unlikely to impact JKIL s fundamentals. We maintain BUY with TP of INR312. Stock is available at PER of 9.8x FY18E. Market Cap 1600 cr Year 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E EBITA Margin (%) 16.3 16.6 16.6 EPS (Rs) 16.3 20.8 29.6 ROE (%) 9.2 10.8 13.8 At CMP, trading at 11.80 9.20 6.50 EV/EBITDA 5.8 5.2 4.3 Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 5
Statistical Data Derivatives Update Day before yesterday 15- Dec -16 Yesterday 16- Dec -16 Changes OI Value cr. OI Value cr. OI Value cr. NIFTY DEC 15,584,400 12,745 14,874,900 12,117-7,09,500-628 NIFTY JAN 19,04,925 1,565 21,41,025 1,752 2,36,100 187 NIFTY FEB 2,54,025 209 2,63,775 217 9,750 7 MINIFTY DEC 0 0 0 0 0 0 BANKNIFTY DEC 20,80,120 3,839 21,27,000 3,900 46,880 62 BANKNIFTY JAN 1,16,760 216 1,12,800 208-3,960-9 CNX IT DEC 37,650 38 37,200 38-450 0 NFTYMCAP50 DEC 0 0 0 0 0 0 DJIA DEC 26,580 53 26,580 53 0 0 S&P500 DEC 2,08,250 47 2,08,250 47 0 0 FTSE100 DEC 0 0 0 0 0 0 Index Future Total -- 18,712 -- 18,331 -- -381 Stock Future DEC -- 67,096 -- 66,533 -- -563 Stock Future JAN -- 2,282 -- 2,619 -- 337 Stock Future Total -- 69,378 -- 69,152 -- -226 Over All OI -- 88,090 -- 87,483 -- -607 Nifty Near Month Future Premium to Cash was avg. 5-6 Rs. Market Turn Over was good to Rs. 2,46,835 Cr. (BSE + NSE + NSE F&O) Advance Decline Ratio Advances Declines Unchanged Ratio 1,118 1,493 166 0.74:1 Sector Updates Sectors METAL BANKEX OIL & GAS PSU FMCG % Change -1.58% -0.55% -0.93% -0.87% -0.67% Exchange Volumes Exchange BSE Cash NSE Cash NSE F&O 16- Dec -2016 3,140 18,134 2,25,592 Total 2,46,866 Implied Volatility for ATM Options (Dec) Call Put 15- Dec 16- Dec 15- Dec 16- Dec 13.25 13.30 13.55 13.90 Put Call Ratio for (Open Interest) 15- Dec 16- Dec Nifty C.M. 1.15 1.12 All Expiry 1.05 1.04 FII - MF Activity as on 16- Dec -2016 (Prov) FII (Cr) DII (Cr) Cash -90 30 Buy 6,835 2,184 Sell 6,925 2,154 F&O -672 -- Net -762 30 FO -- -- Ind Fut -504 -- Ind Options 43 -- Stock Fut -149 -- Stk Options -62 -- World Markets Indices Current Net Change % Change Dow Jones 19,843.41-8.83-0.04% S & P 500 2,258.07-3.96-0.18% Nasdaq 5,437.16-19.69-0.36% FTSE 7,011.64 12.63 0.18% CAC 4,833.27 14.04 0.29% DAX 11,404.01 37.61 0.33% Hang Seng* 21,872.06-149.49-0.68% * Indices at 7:45 AM Currency Forex Current Net Change % Change US Dollar* 67.7713-0.0637-0.09% * Current levels at that point of time Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 6
Private Wealth Desk Equity Oriented Mutual Funds Absolute (%) CAGR (%) Investment Scheme Name Fund Manager Sub Category 6 M 9 M 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 5 Y Horizon DSPBR Tax Saver Fund Rohit Singhania 10.53 32.18 13.46 8.76 23.49 20.87 Franklin India Taxshield Lakshmikanth Reddy Equity - ELSS 2.66 20.00 5.88 5.65 21.56 18.01 Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund Ashwani Kumar 9.93 29.71 7.10 2.25 27.18 22.03 Birla SL Frontline Equity Fund Mahesh Patil 4.18 22.38 8.42 3.90 17.84 17.57 ICICI Pru Top 100 Fund Sankaran Naren Large-cap 11.94 28.66 13.26 3.77 16.48 16.85 SBI BlueChip Fund Sohini Andani 2.27 20.26 7.87 7.09 20.68 19.42 DSPBR Small & Mid Cap Fund Vinit Sambre 13.93 37.50 14.54 12.05 31.01 22.79 HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund Chirag Setalvad Mid-cap 14.15 34.76 15.93 11.70 31.48 24.90 Sundaram Select Midcap S. Krishnakumar 12.67 35.90 13.69 13.65 33.24 24.01 Birla SL Equity Fund Anil Shah 13.95 36.01 18.44 10.12 25.62 21.10 L&T India Value Fund Venugopal M. Multi Cap 14.82 33.26 12.40 12.74 31.90 25.08 MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund Gautam Sinha Roy 10.48 28.15 13.10 14.47 -- -- Birla SL Balanced '95 Fund Mahesh Patil 7.11 22.93 11.72 7.75 20.51 16.72 HDFC Balanced Fund Chirag Setalvad Balanced - Equity Oriented 9.17 25.34 11.85 7.99 22.03 17.94 ICICI Pru Balanced Fund Sankaran Naren 12.97 27.61 14.64 8.64 20.87 18.74 Franklin Build India Fund Anand Radhakrishnan Infrastructure 9.83 31.55 9.95 8.54 31.91 25.48 ICICI Pru Banking & Fin Serv Fund Vinay Sharma Banks & Financial Services 18.16 50.00 22.45 10.09 27.16 24.96 ICICI Pru FMCG Fund Vinay Sharma FMCG -1.35 14.50 1.21 4.45 12.28 16.38 Reliance Pharma Fund Sailesh Raj Bhan Pharma & Health Care 8.10 9.09-1.37 7.25 22.35 22.26 NIFTY 50 0.56 17.71 3.64-2.13 10.00 11.21 NIFTY 500 3.80 21.43 5.87 1.15 14.04 13.17 CRISIL Balanced Fund 3.87 16.47 7.75 2.90 11.16 11.16 S&P BSE Mid-Cap 9.77 30.53 13.69 10.27 25.43 17.28 NIFTY FMCG -1.53 11.76 1.03 1.14 6.40 14.79 S&P BSE BANKEX 6.70 34.79 7.01 0.24 18.71 16.67 S&P BSE Health Care 1.76 3.46-3.45 2.56 18.28 21.02 Past performance is not indicative of future results Report As on 30th November -2016 3 Years 2 to 3 Years 3 Years Plus 2 to 3 Years 2 Years Plus Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 7
Home Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. CIN - L67120MH1995PLC084899 7th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai 400 028. India Tel: +91 22 66121212 Fax: +91 22 66121299 Web: www.emkayglobal.com DISCLAIMER Emkay Global Financial Services Limited and its affiliates are a full-service, brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and financing group. We along with our affiliates are participants in virtually all securities trading markets in India. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. Investors may assume that Emkay Global Financial Services Limited and/or its affiliates may seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material and that the research professionals who were involved in preparing this material may participate in the solicitation of such business. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additionally, other important information regarding our relationships with the company or companies that are the subject of this material is provided herein. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Emkay Global Financial Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Emkay. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Emkay. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or registered trademarks of Emkay or its Group Companies. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market. In so far as this report includes current or historic information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19, 2016 8