Long Pulte Group (PHM) Short Ryland Group (RYL)

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Transcription:

Long Pulte Group (PHM) Short Ryland Group (RYL)

Investment Recommendation The Trade Long PHM Stock Price $5.60 Adj Book Value $7.41 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 0.7x 1.1x 1.3x Target Price $5.48 $8.15 $9.63 Return -2% 46% 72% Short RYL Stock Price $13.56 Adj Book Value $12.13 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 1.3x 0.9x 0.7x Target Price 15.77 10.92 8.98 Return -16% 19% 34% Long PHM Market is overly pessimistic on perceived book value, expecting large impairment charges. As well, underappreciated margin acceleration story not fully discounted into share price yet Attractively valued on very conservative adjusted book value estimate. Short RYL Market does not fully reflect the relatively weaker profitability due to lagging gross margins and lower SG&A leverage Still perceived to have a decent balance sheet despite deteriorating leverage metrics, which are now worse that peers Trading in line with the group despite a negative inflection in fundamentals Total -18% 65% 106%

Agenda Macroeconomic Drivers PHM Overview RYL Overview Conclusion

Macroeconomic Drivers

Record Low Starts 2,500 1,750 1,000 250 1959-2008 Average: 1.5m Min: 798k 2009-2011 Average: 687k Min: 575k Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Axis Title Home Affordability Increasing Recent drop in ratio off high of > 600%, prices look attractive at ~400%. Home prices have stabilized and are more in line with historical norms. 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% Median Home Price to Household Income, SA 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Mortgage Pmt as % of Income Ratio fallen from 32% in 2006 to 16.3% We believe housing is affordable at current cheaper than average prices with cheaper than average long term financing Source: Census, Federal Reserve, BEA

1974 1976 1979 1981 1984 1986 1989 1991 1994 1996 1999 2001 2004 2006 2009 Cost of Buying Appears Cheap Compared to Renting 3 Ratio of Mortgage Payment to Rent, Annualized 2.5 2 1.5 169% 1 0.5 0 73% Ratio currently well below 1 compared to >1.50 in 2007 Ratio below 1 suggests that home prices are cheap at current levels Source: Census Bureau

1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Starts Below Implied Levels 120% Housing Starts Per Population Increase 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ~19% Current supply/demand imbalance points to rising home prices Average housing starts ~.6 per population increase Current projected population increase of 3M implies starts of ~1.8M which suggests that inventories must be falling Source: Census, IMF

1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q2003 1Q2004 2Q2004 3Q2004 4Q2004 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006 3Q2006 4Q2006 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 Months For Sale mn Months of Inventory Inventory Decreasing But Still High 6 Total Homes for Sale and Months of Inventory 14 5 4 3 2 1 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 Foreclosed Units Total Homes for Sale Months of Inventory Housing Inventories remain at unusually high levels Although high, inventories are falling and appear set to fall further given the current starts Source: New York Board of Governors

1975 1976 1978 1979 1981 1982 1984 1985 1987 1988 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 1890 1903 1916 1929 1942 1953 1956 1960 1963 1966 1969 1973 1976 1979 1982 1986 1989 1992 1995 1999 2002 2005 2008 Real Home Prices Stabilizing Real home prices trending down and appear in line with mean levels Home builders as a group benefit from stable home prices, limited downside from here YoY Housing Price Changes showing signs of stability 250 200 150 100 50 0 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Real Median Home Price Housing Price Change, YoY 2% Source: Case-Schiller Housing Index

Pulte Group, Inc. (PHM) Revenue by Region Corporate 0% Central 20% East 33% Financial Services 3% West 18% Gulf Coast 26% Stock Price: 5.59 Market Cap: 2.14B Net Debt: 1.5B EV: 3.6 LTM Revenue: 4,059.6 LTM EBITDA: 12.2 LTM Net Inc: -389.6 Adj. Book Value 7.41 P/B.75x EV/Rev. 0.97x

Pulte (PHM) Attractive Valuation Based on conservative book value multiple Gross Margins Increasing Towards Peer Avg PHM has guided 300-500bps GM improvement SG&A Efficiency 16% expected savings Inventory Impairments Fading 57% inventory write downs from peak book value

Gross Margin Approaching Peers 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Gross Margin, PHM vs. Group 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 PHM Avg (excl PHM & RYL) Gross Margin Expansion to group average: PHM has historically lagged its peers at the GM line but recent initiatives are closing this gap. PHM has guided to 300-500bps of GM improvements through 4 major initiatives: (1) de-contenting the home further and reducing the base price of the home offered to the customer, (2) value engineering of the home building process, (3) moving away from national contracting to regional contracting, and (4) increasing relative market share. Source: Company Filings

SG&A Savings Accelerating 25% SG&A Margin, PHM vs. Group 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 PHM Avg (excl PHM & RYL) Cost saves can surprise to the upside We believe PHM will cut the most SG&A dollars in 2011 across the homebuilder universe. With stabilizing revenues, 2011 will be the first year that Pulte realizes more synergies from the cost reduction relative to its revenue declines. We expect cost saving initiatives to bear better results in 2011. Consequently, we believe investors under-appreciate the extent of cost saves by Pulte and thus could positively surprise. Source: Company Filings

Current Consensus SG&A Outlook PHM SG&A Margin 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Revenue 9,256 6,263 4,084 4,569 4,004 Change y/y -35.1% -32.3% -34.8% 11.9% -12.4% SG&A 1,062.6 786.4 607.4 644.0 542.0 SG&A Margin 11.5% 12.6% 14.9% 14.1% 13.5% Source: company filings, Thomson One Analytics Currently the Street estimates cost saving initiatives to benefit in 2011 and thereafter. The SG&A leverage occurs despite a declining top line in 2011. SG&A expected to decline ~20% y/y in 2011

Inventory Impairments Should Abate PHM s cumulative inventory write-offs are ~70% of ending 2006 inventory levels, which is the highest in the group. We believe this decreases the risk of future writeoffs, while others may have more to go. All else equal, this should set the stage for improve future gross margins while decreasing book value risk Source: Company Filings

PHM Inventory Impairment Risk is Low PHM Inventory Impairment Risk Analysis PHM Revenue Estimate (2011) 4,004 YTD GM% 13.50% 2011 estimate is 14.6% Gros Proft 541 Avg. GM% of Top Tier Homebuilders PHM Gross Profit at Top Tier GM% Gross Profit Shortfall 17% Using highest GM implies larger inventory haircut 669 129 Full Impairment to PHM's land inventory PHM Land Inventory: Land Under Development 2,583 Land Held For Future Development 996 Total Land Inventory 3,579 Impairment as % of Total Inventory 3.60% Current Market Assumptions P/ABV for Group 1.1x PHM 0.8x PHM ABV $2,837 PHM ABV to get group Valuation $1,931 ABV Adj. $907 Full Impairment to PHM's land inventory Impairment as % of Total Inventory 25.30% Too Bearish! While we think inventory write-off risk is much lower, the market appears to be estimating a much higher write-off, which we think is overly bearish! Source: Company Filings, Thompson One

Adjustments to Book Value We give PHM 35% credit for its deferred tax asset, less than the 65% we assign to its peers like DHI, LEN, MTG, and TOL, all of whom we believe will realize their DTAs sooner given their higher and current profitability. At 35% credit for DTAs, this adds ~$2.40 per share in book value In PHM s case another adjustment we make is for mortgage put back risk (see Appendix 1); PHMs has the largest potential put back risk given that it put up the largest reserves. PHM put aside the most relative to peers at $103mn, while DHI, MDC and RYL reserved $28mn, $8mn, and $15mnn, respectively. The mortgage put back risk incorporates the potential for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks and others to force banks to buy back mortgage securities and other loans that didn t meet original warranty and representation commitments. It is a fairly complicated issue and thus we tackled it through a scenario analysis (see appendix). We currently believe the mortgage put back will negatively impact book value by ~4% or $0.20 per share. As a result PHM trades at 0.75x on Price to Adjusted Book basis, well below the peer median of 1.1x and average of 1.3x.

Ryland (RYL) Stock Price: 14.08 Market Cap:.625B Net Debt:.4B EV: 1B LTM Revenue: 878.0 LTM EBITDA: 7.8 LTM Net Inc: -70.7 Adj. Book Value 12.13 P/B 1.1x EV/Rev. 1.21x Revenue by Region Financial Services 3% West 12% North 32% Texas 26% Southeast 27%

(RYL) Gross Margin Lagging Peers RYL 13% Vs. Peer Average 16% Declining SG&A Leverage Negative SG&A leverage in 11 despite revenue growth Deteriorating Leverage Now at Peer Average At peer leverage average, set to weaken Potential Additional Inventory Impairment Significant legacy inventory poses impairment risk

Gross Margin Gap to Peers Widening Gross Margin trends, while improving, increasingly lag the group: We expect further pressure to gross margins given the retrenchment in growth of new communities which carry 300-40bps margin premiums relative to legacy land. The new community openings were a pillar of management s improving gross margin story at beginning of 2011. Absent the potential volume growth from new communities we believe RLY may again rely more on incentives/discounts to generate volumes, which could further impact gross margins.

Current Consensus SG&A Outlook RYL SG&A Margin 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue 3,052 1,976 1,284 1,064 922 1,062 1,230 Change y/y -36.2% -35.2% -35.0% -17.1% -13.4% 15.3% 15.8% SG&A 371.5 292.5 182.5 158.1 158.1 209.0 164.8 SG&A Margin 12.2% 14.8% 14.2% 14.9% 17.2% 19.7% 13.4% Source: company filings, Thomson One Analytics SG&A cost absorptions keeps getting pushed further away: We believe SG&A as % of sales remains high and while recent cost reductions are in the right direction, we do not expect them to lead to 2011 profitability. Volume leverage remains crucial for Ryland absorption rates. Thus, given our belief that volumes will be limited for RYL, we expect SG&A leverage to lag peers. RYL management seems to follow or run behind competitors in terms of resizing its cost basis and wee believe its no different tis time. SG&A leverage increasing despite revenue growth

Deteriorating Leverage Due to accumulating GAAP losses continue, RYL s balance sheet continues to worsen. Leverage, has recently accelerated at RYL relative to the peer group. We believe RYL s higher leverage carries greater risk. In addition, given expectations for poorer profitability, we see the balance sheet deteriorating more. Furthermore, any potential inventory impairments will also lower equity capital, pressuring balance sheets. Market is wrong in assessing RYL s balance as in line with peers.

Cumulative Inventory Impairments Given that PHM has significant legacy inventory, we think there is potential for additional write-down which poses some risk to book value.

Conclusion Long PHM Improving margin profile, approaching peer group average Limited inventory impairment risk Attractively valued on very conservative adjusted book value basis. Short RYL Deteriorating margins at both gross and SG&A lines, now running below group averages on both Accelerating leverage relative to group, which we believe will only get worse as profitability gets pushed out further Potential book value risk from inventory write-offs Valued in line to group, which we believe is too rich given the aforementioned issues, which we believe is too rich

Investment Recommendation The Trade Long PHM Stock Price $5.60 Adj Book Value $7.41 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 0.7x 1.1x 1.3x Target Price $5.48 $8.15 $9.63 Return -2% 46% 72% Short RYL Stock Price $13.56 Adj Book Value $12.13 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 1.3x 0.9x 0.7x Target Price 15.77 10.92 8.98 Return -16% 19% 34% Long PHM Market is overly pessimistic on perceived book value, expecting large impairment charges. As well, underappreciated margin acceleration story not fully discounted into share price yet Attractively valued on very conservative adjusted book value estimate. Short RYL Market does not fully reflect the relatively weaker profitability due to lagging gross margins and lower SG&A leverage Still perceived to have a decent balance sheet despite deteriorating leverage metrics, which are now worse that peers Trading in line with the group despite a negative inflection in fundamentals Total -18% 65% 106%

Comparables Market Data Book Value Valuation Fiscal ($ bil.) GAAP Adj. Price-to-Book EV / P/E Company Ticker Year Price MCAP Net Debt EV BV DTA BV P/BV P/ABV Rev. 2012E 2013E D.R. Horton DHI Sept. $11.54 $3.6 $0.7 $4.3 $8.20 $2.71 $9.96 1.41x 1.16x 1.29x 23.08x 13.46x KB Home KBH Nov. $7.51 $0.6 $1.2 $1.7 $4.65 $10.96 $7.94 1.62x 0.95x 1.31x (36.75x) 15.31x Lennar LEN Nov. $18.37 $3.4 $1.3 $4.6 $14.28 $3.20 $16.36 1.29x 1.12x 1.83x 22.71x 14.59x Meritage MTH Dec. $19.93 $0.6 $0.1 $0.7 $15.39 $2.80 $17.21 1.29x 1.16x 0.87x 30.82x 12.02x Toll Brothers TOL Oct. $19.55 $3.3 ($1.0) $2.2 $15.49 $2.48 $16.36 1.26x 1.20x 1.38x 61.00x 28.65x Hovnanian HOV Oct. $1.36 $0.1 $2.3 $2.4 ($5.66) $9.33 $0.41-0.2x 3.36x 2.00x (0.97x) (1.83x) M.D.C. MDC Dec. $18.81 $0.9 $0.1 $1.0 $18.52 $4.87 $20.22 1.02x 0.93x 1.17x (30.47x) 51.37x M/I MHO Dec. $9.05 $0.2 $0.0 $0.2 $9.82 $6.84 $12.21 0.92x 0.74x 0.32x 869.00x NVR NVR Dec. $639.61 $3.2 ($1.3) $1.9 $295.90 $0.00 $295.90 2.16x 2.16x 0.70x 18.02x 14.13x Avg. 1.19x 1.42x 1.21x 106.27x 18.46x Median 1.29x 1.16x 1.29x 22.71x 14.36x Pulte PHM Dec. $5.60 $2.1 $1.5 $3.6 $5.06 $6.72 $7.41 0.76x 0.75x 0.97x 31.11x 12.17x Ryland RYL Dec. $13.56 $0.6 $0.4 $1.0 $10.13 $5.72 $12.13 1.12x 1.10x 1.21x 38.74x 11.49x Lvg. Operating Metrics Net Debt LTM Y/Y LTM Y/Y Unit Y/Y Gross SG&A Land ($ in bil.) % of '06 Company Ticker /Cap Orders Chg. Deliv. Chg. Bklg Chg. Margin % (Yrs) Invntry. Imprmnt. Invntry. D.R. Horton DHI 21% 17,159-16% 15,989-25% 5,281 26% 16% 17% 7.2 3.5 4.6 54% KB Home KBH 72% 5,699-27% 6,452-23% 1,689-24% 13% 25% 5.8 1.8 2.9 47% Lennar LEN 54% 10,515-8% 10,524-5% 1,944 0% 21% 16% 10.3 4.3 4.8 62% Meritage MTH 32% 3,169-14% 3,219-24% 940-5% 17% 17% 4.8 0.8 0.9 58% Toll Brothers TOL 13% 2,686-9% 2,664-5% 1,472 1% 17% 20% 13.4 3.4 2.3 46% Hovnanian HOV 160% 3,818-22% 4,264-14% 1,196-28% 11% 16% 7.2 0.9 2.4 70% M.D.C. MDC -19% 3,084-14% 2,850-17% 993 28% 14% 19% 4.4 0.8 1.3 42% M/I MHO 56% 2,238-8% 2,194-21% 747 11% 14% 17% 4.6 0.4 0.5 43% NVR NVR -102% 8,787-10% 8,607-18% 3,685 5% 17% 13% 6.1 0.6 0.6 39% Total / Avg. 58% 57,155-14% 56,763-17% 17,947 2% 16% 18% 7.1 16.5 20.3 51% Pulte PHM 53% 15,177-7% 15,044-22% 5,188 2% 13% 17% 9.6 4.9 11.2 70% Ryland RYL 43% 3,606-17% 3,328-39% 1,465 20% 13% 17% 7.0 0.8 1.3 50% Source: Company Filings, Thompson One Estimates

Appendix

PHM Summary Stats Income Statement 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Total Revenue 9,256.5 6,263.1 4,084.4 4,569.3 4,004.4 4,225.2 4,937.1 Change y/y (35.1%) (32.3%) (34.8%) 11.9% (12.4%) 5.5% 16.8% Gross Profit 1,219.7 639.2 322.0 606.2 590.2 657.4 842.8 GM% 13.2% 10.2% 7.9% 13.3% 14.7% 15.6% 17.1% EBIT 157.1 (147.2) (285.5) (266.6) (95.5) 176.3 336.8 Operating Margin% 1.7% (2.3%) (7.0%) (5.8%) (2.4%) 4.2% 6.8% Net Income excl one-timers (2,274.4) (1,473.1) (1,182.6) (1,096.7) (177.5) 67.2 175.8 % of Revenue (24.6%) (23.5%) (29.0%) (24.0%) (4.4%) 1.6% 3.6% Net Income (2,255.8) (1,473.1) (1,182.6) (1,096.7) (179.9) 75.9 172.0 Net Margin% (24.4%) (23.5%) (29.0%) (24.0%) (4.5%) 1.8% 3.5% Diluted EPS, excl one-timers (9.02) (5.81) (3.94) (2.9) (0.051) 0.19 0.48 Change y/y NM NM NM NM NM NM 152.6% Source: company filings, Capital IQ, Thomson One Analytics Cash Flow Current Capitalization 2007 2008 2009 2010 Share Price $5.53 Shares Out. 382.8 Net Income (2,255.8) (1,473.1) (1,182.6) (1,096.7) Mtk Cap 2,116.8 Depreciation & Amort., Total 83.9 74.0 50.2 45.7 Cash 1,142.5 Change in NWC 637.4 934.9 216.7 681.1 Total Debt 3,383.0 Other Operating Activities 2,752.8 1,684.6 1,654.5 950.2 EV 4,357.3 Cash from Ops. 1,218.3 1,220.4 738.9 580.3 Book Value 1,923.5 Capital Expenditure (70.1) (18.9) (39.3) (15.2) Total Debt 3,383.0 Other Investing Activities (151.3) (37.0) 1,733.1 (4.3) Total Capital 5,306.5 Cash from Investing (221.4) (55.9) 1,693.8 (19.5) Leverage Ratios Total Debt Repaid (448.8) (520.1) (2,224.4) (953.0) Debt to Equity 176% Issuance of Common Stock 7.9 4.5 4.8 8.7 Debt to Mkt Cap 160% Repurchase of Common Stock (6.2) (5.3) (7.4) (4.0) Total Dividends Paid (41.0) (41.1) Debt to Total Capital 64% Other Financing Activities 0.5 (5.7) (3.1) Debt to EV 78% Cash from Financing (487.6) (567.7) (2,230.0) (948.4) Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. (0.2) (1.8) 0.3 0 Net Change in Cash 509.0 595.0 203.0 (387.6) Source: company filings, Capital IQ, Thomson One Analytics

RYL Summary Stats Income Statement 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Total Revenue 3,051.9 1,976.1 1,283.6 1,063.9 921.6 1,062.3 1,230.3 Change y/y (36.2%) (35.2%) (35.0%) (17.1%) (13.4%) 15.3% 15.8% Gross Profit 545.8 211.4 124.1 152.8 142.6 183.9 231.7 GM% 17.9% 10.7% 9.7% 14.4% 15.5% 17.3% 18.8% EBIT 174.2 (81.1) (58.4) (5.3) (15.6) (25.1) 66.9 Operating Margin% 5.7% (4.1%) (4.5%) (0.5%) (1.7%) (2.4%) 5.4% Net Income excl one-timers (333.5) (396.6) (162.5) (85.1) (41.8) 11.7 51.5 % of Revenue (10.9%) (20.1%) (12.7%) (8.0%) (29.3%) 6.3% 22.2% Net Income (333.5) (396.6) (162.5) (85.1) (42.2) (15.9) 60.4 Net Margin% (10.9%) (20.1%) (12.7%) (8.0%) (4.6%) (1.5%) 4.9% Diluted EPS, excl one-timers (7.92) (9.33) (3.74) (1.93) (0.95) 0.33 1.13 Change y/y NM NM NM NM - - 242.4% Source: company filings, Capital IQ Cash Flow Current Capitalization (Millions o 2007 2008 2009 2010 Share Price $13.73 Shares Out. 44.4 Net Income (333.5) (396.6) (162.5) (85.1) Mkt Cap 609.8 Depreciation & Amort., Total 54.3 51.6 25.1 17.3 Cash 493.2 Change in NWC 272.3 383.2 214.1 (106.3) Total Debt 831.8 Other Operating Activities 235.4 210.2 219.0 104.8 Minority Interest 35.0 Cash from Ops. 228.5 248.5 295.7 (69.3) Enterprise Value 983.4 Capital Expenditure (32.1) (9.9) (2.1) (13.2) Book Value 449.8 Other Investing Activities 15.6 2.2 (452.3) 22.5 Minority Interest 35.0 Cash from Investing (16.5) (7.7) (454.4) 9.3 Total Debt 831.8 Total Capital 1,316.6 Total Debt Issued 22.1 225.4 305.5 Total Debt Repaid (111.4) (70.8) (129.1) (300.6) Leverage Ratios Total Dividends Paid (20.4) (20.5) (5.3) (5.4) Debt to Equity 185% Other Financing Activities (50.6) (5.9) (36.8) 2.0 Debt to Mkt Cap 136% Cash from Financing (182.4) (75.1) 54.3 1.5 Debt to Total Capital 63% Net Change in Cash 29.669 165.736-104.5-58.6 Debt to EV 85% Source: company filings, Capital IQ, Thomson One Analytics

RYL Summary Stats PHM Mortgage Put-Back Risk Dow nside Base Case Upside 2006-2007 Notional Principal U/W (bil) $37.80 $37.80 $37.80 53 Months of Mortgage Refinancing & Principal Amort x 22% 22% 22% 2006-2007 Notional Principal O/S (bil) = $29.48 $29.48 $29.48 No FICO Avg. Portfolio Prime Loan Portoflio MTG 2006-2007 Default Assumptions x 25% 20% 17% Notional Principal in Default = $7.37 $5.90 $5.01 Avg. 4Q09 Rate Avg 2Q10 Rate Ever to Date Rate Recession Rate x 23.80% 20.10% 15.10% Notional Principal O/S Likely Fraudulent (bil) = $1.75 $1.19 $0.76 CoreLogic HPI %Chg Measured 1Q06 x -29.57% -29.57% -29.57% Potential GSE Losses PHM Needs to Make Whole (bil) = $0.52 $0.35 $0.22 PHM settlements to Date (bil) - $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 PHM Cure Rate Experience Assumption x 60% 60% 60% Additional Loses PHM Likely Needs to Make Whole (bil) = $0.27 $0.17 $0.10 PHM's current Reserve (bil) $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 PHM's Current Reserve Surplus/(Deficit) (bil) ($0.18) ($0.08) $0.00 Surplus/(Deficit) per Share 380.025 ($0.47) ($0.20) $0.00 Source: company filings, CoreLogic,

Homebuilder Statistics Delivered Homes 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 KBH 22,847 24,868 25,452 27,331 32,577 31,092 32,128 23,870 12,700 8,629 7,448 1,265 1,603 DHI 18,942 22,772 31,584 37,662 44,005 51,383 53,410 37,717 23,915 18,164 18,983 3,516 4,555 HOV 4,448 7,419 10,049 12,147 14,951 16,853 17,361 13,902 8,181 5,245 4,483 899 993 LEN 18,236 23,104 26,825 31,412 35,189 40,882 47,032 31,582 15,344 11,422 10,859 1,903 2,652 MDC 7,484 8,174 8,900 11,211 13,876 15,307 13,123 8,195 4,488 3,013 3,245 554 709 MTH 2,227 3,270 4,574 5,642 7,254 9,406 10,487 7,687 5,627 4,039 3,700 678 856 NVR 10,055 10,372 11,368 12,050 12,749 13,787 15,139 13,513 10,741 9,042 10,030 1,634 2,207 PHM 20,063 23,136 35,237 32,693 38,612 45,630 41,487 27,540 21,022 15,013 17,095 3,141 3,633 RYL 11,418 12,686 13,145 14,724 15,101 16,673 15,392 10,319 7,352 5,129 4,245 688 884 TOL 4,117 4,366 4,487 4,960 7,132 9,058 8,281 6,336 4,200 2,896 2,616 591 693 Total 119,837 140,167 171,621 189,832 221,446 250,071 253,840 180,661 113,570 82,592 82,704 14,869 18,785 Homes in Backlog KBH 10,559 11,127 - - - - - - - 2,126 1,336 2,422 2,657 DHI 30,276 38,296 51,116 61,964 72,257 85,181 83,792 51,266 26,531 19,775 18,726 5,281 5,600 HOV 3,230 3,328 3,875 6,436 7,404 12,096 7,800 3,845 1,660 1,593 1,196 1,293 1,469 LEN 7,851 8,084 11,667 12,679 13,961 17,206 10,519 3,645 1,591 1,622 1,601 1,944 2,461 MDC 3,292 2,882 4,035 5,593 6,505 6,532 3,638 1,947 533 826 842 993 1,424 MTH 1,246 1,602 2,070 2,580 4,408 6,394 3,685 2,288 1,281 1,095 778 940 994 NVR 5,148 5,558 6,357 6,890 7,372 8,310 6,388 5,145 3,164 3,531 2,916 3,685 3,946 PHM 5,477 8,678 10,605 13,952 15,916 17,817 10,255 7,890 2,174 5,931 3,984 5,188 5,777 RYL 4,168 4,577 5,368 5,841 7,620 8,464 4,206 2,869 1,559 1,732 1,187 1,465 1,646 TOL 2,643 2,645 3,362 5,079 7,292 8,635 5,949 3,341 1,647 1,461 1,472 1,760 1,780 Total 73,890 86,777 98,455 121,014 142,735 170,635 136,232 82,236 40,140 39,692 34,038 24,971 27,754 Delivered Homes Average Price KBH $168,300 $178,000 $190,800 $206,500 $219,900 $261,200 $287,700 $261,600 $236,400 $207,100 $214,500 $213,400 $227,400 DHI $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $208,500 $213,900 HOV $256,015 $249,819 $261,369 $269,993 $290,346 $320,885 $333,685 $323,499 $303,763 $280,795 $279,731 $275,000 $278,000 LEN $226,000 $237,000 $245,000 $256,000 $272,000 $311,000 $315,000 $297,000 $270,000 $243,000 $243,000 $240,000 $245,000 MDC $227,300 $254,100 $254,000 $254,300 $282,700 $313,100 $354,400 $337,500 $302,600 $277,800 $283,800 $294,900 $290,800 MTH $231,400 $227,100 $243,200 $259,100 $277,900 $318,600 $328,400 $303,600 $267,500 $238,400 $254,200 $261,800 $257,200 NVR $224,600 $246,000 $268,500 $297,900 $332,200 $374,900 $398,200 $373,200 $338,400 $296,400 $297,100 $307,600 $309,200 PHM $204,903 $223,924 $203,247 $259,000 $287,000 $315,000 $337,000 $322,000 $284,000 $258,000 $259,000 $249,000 $248,000 RYL $200,170 $208,000 $210,000 $224,000 $251,000 $278,000 $295,000 $285,000 $252,000 $240,000 $242,000 $245,000 $277,149 TOL $458,363 $504,994 $524,726 $557,003 $594,359 $667,798 $690,810 $673,610 $640,187 $577,688 $574,231 $540,905 $568,983 Total $239,665 $252,854 $260,044 $278,340 $300,701 $336,008 $353,979 $337,661 $309,445 $281,878 $284,716 $283,611 $291,563 Total Homebuilding Inventories KBH 1,657 1,885 2,173 2,883 4,143 6,128 5,752 3,312 2,107 1,501 1,697 1,895 1,901 DHI 2,533 4,201 4,736 5,836 7,927 10,852 11,209 7,065 4,168 3,764 3,474 3,474 3,501 HOV 765 940 1,276 2,023 2,618 3,886 4,134 3,357 1,919 1,090 948 978 1,025 LEN 2,302 2,417 3,238 3,656 5,142 7,864 7,831 4,500 4,500 4,088 4,170 4,297 4,302 MDC 832 907 1,235 1,496 2,016 2,998 2,754 1,457 657 523 788 834 861 MTH 236 375 562 802 1,015 1,559 1,703 1,369 917 694 750 768 789 NVR 431 558 668 821 1,063 1,587 1,412 1,058 545 539 554 632 687 PHM 1,897 3,834 4,294 5,835 7,578 9,090 9,884 7,301 4,537 5,173 4,904 4,907 5,063 RYL 888 899 1,100 1,397 2,024 2,580 2,771 1,814 1,096 667 799 817 840 TOL 1,846 2,277 2,716 3,273 4,146 5,531 6,182 5,274 3,933 3,224 3,360 3,385 3,424 Total 13,387 18,293 21,999 28,023 37,672 52,076 53,633 36,506 24,379 21,264 21,444 21,987 22,392 Source: company filings