Global Economics & Markets Research Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Monday, 24 August 2015 Chart Of The Day JPY/SGD: 1.1620 Strong and impulsive upward momentum suggests that the current movement could be a major mid to long-term reversal. Target 1.1845 next. The bullish JPY phase that started about 2 weeks is clearly not over. In fact, strong and impulsive upward momentum suggests that the current movement could be a major mid to long-term bullish reversal. Successive strong resistances have been taken out, the latest one being the year-to-date high of 1.1605 earlier this morning. We remain a steadfast JPY bull and expect further JPY strength towards 1.1845 next. We have moved the stop-loss higher to 1.1420 from 1.1290 last Friday.
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 2 OVERVIEW Weakness in the greenback continues, reflecting doubts that the Fed will be able to hike interest rates next month. Friday s session saw Wall Street experiencing its biggest single session slide in four years. The Dow Jones was down over 500 points, the biggest point drop since August 2011, and the S&P500 closed down more than 3%. WTI briefly sunk below the $40/bbl mark before coming back a tad higher. Treasuries are correspondingly bid, with the 10-year yield shedding about 3bps to reach 2.04%, alongside greater downward pressure in the 2-year yield of about -4bps to 0.61%. Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25% Last Change: -0.75% in Dec 08 Next FOMC Meeting: 17-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.6% in 1Q15 +2.3% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2nd estimate): 27-Aug-15 PCE Price Index YoY: +0.2% in May +0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Core PCE Price Index YoY: +1.2% in May +1.3% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Unemployment: +5.3% in Jun +5.3% in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Nonfarm payroll: +231k in Jun +215k in Jul Aug Release: 04-Sep-15 Retail Sales: +0.0% in Jun +0.6% in Jul Aug Release: 11-Sep-15 Retail Sales ex autos: +0.4% in Jun +0.4% in Jul Aug Release: 11-Sep-15 Durable Goods: -2.1% in May +3.4% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Durable Goods ex autos: -0.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 26-Aug-15 Housing Starts: +1204k in Jun +1206k in Jul Aug Release: 17-Sep-15 Case Shiller 20-City Index: +5.0% in Apr +4.9% in May Jun Release: 25-Aug-15 exp: +5.1% UoM Consumer Confidence: 93.1 in Jul 92.9 in Aug Sep Release: 11-Sep-15 UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.50% end 4Q15: 0.75% end 1Q16: 1.00% end 2Q16: 1.25%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 3 USD/SGD: 1.4125 SGD fell sharply on Friday, down 0.43% to 1.4086/USD, and down 0.12% for the week, to see its 7th consecutive week of decline. Whilst broader global markets will continue to be of relevance especially with US equity markets in correction territory, Singapore data releases for the week include July s CPI report due today at 1pm and July s industrial production report on Wednesday. It looks like disinflationary pressure is expected at the headline level at - 0.2% y/y from -0.3% in June, though core inflation rate should accelerate slightly at 0.3%y/y from 0.2% in June. The SGD NEER index dropped abruptly to 1.3% below the midpoint this morning, from -0.77% last Friday as SGD fell sharply against the majors especially EUR and JPY. The -0.5% to -1.5% range below the midpoint remains valid for now, which implies USD/SGD range of 1.4000-1.4142 and any further weakness would see the S$ index approaching the -2.0% level, or 1.4215 for the USD/SGD. USD tested the strong 1.4100 resistance last Friday but failed to break through with a high of 1.4098. However, the strong opening and the break of 1.4100 early this morning indicates a quick pick-up in momentum and the pressure is still clearly on the upside. Expect any pullback to hold above 1.4075 for a move to test 1.4165. Bullish: Break of 1.4100 is enough to suggest further USD strength in the coming days. While we prefer to see a clear break above the recent high at 1.4165 before adopting a bullish USD stance, the break above 1.4100 appears to be enough to indicate further USD strength in the coming days. The immediate target is at 1.4215. In order to maintain the current momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 1.4010. S$NEER Last Change: Reduced the slope of the policy band (Jan 2015) Next MAS Meeting: Oct 15 (date yet to be announced) GDP YoY: +2.8% in 1Q15 +1.8% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 14-Oct-15 CPI YoY: -0.4% in May -0.3% in Jun Jul Release: 24-Aug-15 exp: -0.2% NODX: +4.5% in Jun -0.8% in Jul Aug Release: 17-Sep-15 Industrial Production: -1.7% in May -4.4% in Jun Jun Release: 26-Aug-15 exp: -3.2% UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.45 end 4Q15: 1.43 end 1Q16: 1.45 end 2Q16: 1.46 UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.25% end 4Q15: 1.15% end 1Q16: 1.22% end 2Q16: 1.27% UOB 3M SOR Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.35% end 4Q15: 1.25% end 1Q16: 1.30% end 2Q16: 1.35%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 4 EUR/SGD: 1.6075 There is no stopping this pair as it easily took out successive strong resistance levels to touch a high of 1.6033/38 last Friday. The rally continues unabated early this morning and further up-move towards 1.6150 is likely. Strong support is at 1.6000. Bullish: Impulsive momentum suggests much higher levels in the coming days. As pointed last Friday, the recent break higher is likely the start of the next mid-term bullish leg. The rally exceeded our expectation by taking out the major 1.5940 resistance to touch a high of 1.6033/38 (before moving even higher earlier this morning). From here, the next target is at 1.6205 high seen in late December last year followed by 1.6390. We have moved the stop-loss level higher to 1.5820 from 1.5650 last Friday. GBP/SGD: 2.2145 The break above 2.2090 last Friday bodes well for further GBP strength in the coming days. For today, expect any pull-back to hold above 2.2070 for a move to 2.2200. Bullish: Break above 2.2200 will target 2.2350 next. The break above 2.2092/97 last Friday suggests that the next bullish leg has started. However, patchy upward momentum suggests a slow drift higher. A clear break above our immediate target at 2.2200 will shift the focus to 2.2350 next. Stop-loss is at 2.1950 now. AUD/SGD: 1.0260 Despite the sharp drop to a low of 1.02220/25 early this morning, momentum indicators are patchy and a clear break below the major 1.0200 support appears unlikely. That said, the immediate pressure is on the downside and only a move back above 1.0300 would indicate that a short-term low is in place. Neutral: Expect further choppy trading between 1.0200 and 1.0400. While short-term downward momentum is picking up, only a clear break below the major 1.0200 support would indicate further AUD weakness in the coming weeks. For now, we continue to hold a neutral view and expect this pair to trade between 1.0200 and 1.0400. That said, the odds for a shift to a bearish outlook will continue to increase unless there is a move back above 1.0350 in the next couple of days. JPY/SGD: 1.1620 The dramatic rally in JPY still appears incomplete despite being extremely overbought. Only a move back below 1.1540 would indicate that the upward pressure has eased. Otherwise, extension higher towards 1.1660 is likely. Bullish: Strong and impulsive upward momentum suggests that the current movement could be a major mid to long-term reversal. [See Chart of the Day on page 1]
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 5 USD/MYR: 4.2350 MYR fell 1.1% on Friday and 2.5% for the week to 4.1827/USD, its 9th week of declines and longest stretch since December 2014. The ringgit dropped to as low as 4.1865 earlier Friday, the weakest since August 1998, ahead of the release of FX reserves which had declined below US$100bn in July for the first time since 2010 and have dropped 17% this year. FX reserves dropped further to US$94.5bn as at mid-august from US$96.7bn at end-july. With the lack of positive catalysts in view, we have revised higher our USD/MYR projections to 4.26 by end-3q15, 4.20 by end-4q15, 4.18 by end-1q16 and 4.15 by end-2q16. Bullish: No stopping the USD bull; next resistance at 4.2550 followed 4.2800. There is no stopping the USD bull as we continue to make new high upon market opening this morning. The next resistance is at 4.2550 followed by 4.2800. Strong support is at 4.1850 ahead of the stop-loss level at 4.1200. Overnight Policy Rate: 3.25% Last Change: +0.25% in Jul 2014 Next BNM Meeting: 03-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +5.6% in 1Q15 +4.9% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 12-Nov-15 CPI YoY: +2.5% in Jun +3.3% in Jul Aug Release: 23-Sep-15 Trade Balance: +5.5b in May +7.98b in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Export: -6.7% in May +5.0% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Import: -7.2% in May -1.5% in Jun Jul Release: 04-Sep-15 Industrial Production: +4.5% in May +4.3% in Jun Jul Release: 10-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.26 end 4Q15: 4.20 end 1Q16: 4.18 end 2Q16: 4.15 UOB Overnight Policy Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 3.25% end 4Q15: 3.25% end 1Q16: 3.25% end 2Q16: 3.25% USD/THB: 35.72 THB retreated 1.3% last week and was down 0.1% on Friday to 35.671/USD, after touching 35.732, lowest since March 2009, for the 7th straight weekly losses and longest run of weekly declines since June 2013 following a deadly bomb blast in Bangkok that added to Thailand s economic challenges and intensifying outflows from equities. This week, we will be receiving trade external trade reports from Thailand on Tuesday, followed by production data on Friday. Bullish: 35.78 target likely within reach sometimes this week. Above this, the next resistance is at 36.00. As pointed out last Friday, while the short-term consolidation has ended, patchy upward momentum suggests a slow drift higher towards our target at 35.78. The movement is line with our expectation as we saw a high of 35.73 last Friday. From here, 35.78 appears to be within reach sometimes this week and a break above this level will shift the focus to the next resistance at 36.00. We have moved the stop-loss higher to 35.50 from 35.43 previously. 1-Day Repo Rate: 1.50% Last Change: -0.25% in Apr 2015 Next BOT Meeting: 16-Sep-15 GDP YoY: +3.0% in 1Q15 +2.8% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 17-Nov-15 CPI YoY: -1.07% in Jun -1.05% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 35.5 end 4Q15: 35.5 end 1Q16: 35.8 end 2Q16: 36.0 UOB 1-Day Repo Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.50% end 4Q15: 1.50% end 1Q16: 1.75% end 2Q16: 2.00%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 6 USD/CNH: 6.4520 Onshore CNY was little changed and closed at 6.3887/USD last Friday, for a 0.05% weekly gain following a 2.9% loss during the week of the one-off devaluation on 11 August. This was consistent with the central parity which rose 0.17% last week following the record 4.6% decline due to the one-time devaluation, as the authorities appeared to be dampening expectations of further depreciation of the currency. However, downward pressure remains for the currency with the prelim Caixin PMI coming in worse than expected at 47.1 for August, which is the lowest reading since March 2009, and expectations for a cut in the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) are also building up and we expect such a move to come in within the next 2-3 weeks. This morning, PBOC set the CNY reference rate at 6.3862 against the USD. While the strong rebound from the 6.4350 low last Friday appears incomplete, the up-move is likely part of a broader consolidation range instead of the start of the next bullish leg higher. For today, expect 6.4430 to hold for a move higher to 6.4650. Bullish: Outlook is still bullish. USD traded mostly sideways for the past one week or so. In view of the sharp spike higher after the CNY devaluation, the outlook is still bullish but a move above the 6.5945 appears unlikely, at least not for the next 1 to 2 weeks. Overall, only a move back below 6.4000 would indicate that a deeper pull-back has started. Benchmark Deposit Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Benchmark Lending Rate: 4.85% Last Change: -0.25% in Jun 2015 Reserve Requirement Ratio: 18.5% Last Change: -1.00% in Apr 2015 GDP YoY: +7.0% in 1Q15 +7.0% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 19-Oct-15 Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 47.8 in Jul 47.1 in Aug Sep Release: 23-Sep-15 NBS Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 in Jun 50.0 in Jul Jul Release: 01-Sep-15 PPI YoY: -4.8% in Jun -5.4% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.4% in Jun +1.6% in Jul Aug Release: 09-Sep-15 Trade Balance: +46.54 in Jun +43.0b in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Export: +2.8% in Jun -8.3% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 Import: -6.1% in Jun -8.1% in Jul Aug Release: 08-Sep-15 UOB FX (USD/CNY) Forecast: end 3Q15: 6.40 end 4Q15: 6.45 end 1Q16: 6.48 end 2Q16: 6.53 UOB Benchmark Lending Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 4.60% end 4Q15: 4.60% end 1Q16: 4.60% end 2Q16: 4.60%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 7 EUR/USD: 1.1390 EUR is now above the 1.130-mark after Eurozone PMI data improved more than expected, and on broad-softening of the USD. The Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI index for August came in higher at 52.4 versus expectations for 52.2, the service PMI reading also higher at 54.3 versus an expected 54.0 and the composite reading of 54.1, versus an expected 53.8 and a 53.7 print in July. This week, it is all about surveys and the spotlight will fall on the EU Commission s survey for August. We will also be receiving the German IFO (Tuesday), French and Italian business confidence (Thursday and Friday respectively). July Eurozone money supply data will also be published, so is the preliminary estimate of German August HICP as well as German July import prices. As pointed out last Friday, the recent EUR strength is accompanied by strong momentum and extension higher is likely in the coming days. The anticipated up-move surged above the 1.1280 resistance to reach a high of 1.1390. Despite being overbought, the up-move is clearly incomplete and we expect another leg higher to 1.1430/35, possibly extending towards the major resistance at 1.1460. Only an unlikely move back below 1.1340 would indicate that the upward pressure has eased. Bullish: Target met in a single day; current rally shouldn't have much difficulty extending higher to 1.1465/70. The shift to a bullish view last Friday (see Chart of the Day) was timely as EUR exploded higher and the 1.1365 target was met in a single day. As indicated, the current movement is likely the initial stages of a sustained rally and based on the strong and impulsive momentum, the on-going rally shouldn't have much difficulty extending higher towards the 1.1465/70 high seen in May. The next resistance above this level is at 1.1530/35. We have moved the stop-loss higher to 1.1220 from 1.1105. INDICATORS Refinancing Rate: 0.05% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Next ECB Meeting: 03-Sep-15 Deposit Rate: -0.2% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 Lending Rate: 0.3% Last Change: -0.10% in Sep 2014 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15 +0.3% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd est): 04-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +0.2% in Jun +0.2% in Jul Aug Release: 31-Aug-15 Unemployment: 11.1% in Jun 11.1% in Jul May Release: 01-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.09 end 4Q15: 1.10 end 1Q16: 1.12 end 2Q16: 1.12 UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.05% end 4Q15: 0.05% end 1Q16: 0.05% end 2Q16: 0.05%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 8 GBP/USD: 1.5680 GBP was flat, though overall supported as the UK saw higher than expected inflation data, slightly below par retail sales, and better than expected public finance data last week. The focus this week is likely to be on the publication of the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday, which we expect will be left intact at its preliminary estimate of 0.7% q/q, 2.6% y/y. Nationwide s measure of house prices and GfK s consumer confidence will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Before that, the CBI will publish its August distributive trades survey on Wednesday. BoE Governor Carney speaks at the Kansas Fed symposium at Jackson Hole on the hot topic of Global Inflation Dynamics. In line with expectation, GBP moved higher but failed to break clearly above the major 1.5720 resistance (high of 1.5724). The undertone appears to be positive but this pair has to break clearly above 1.5720 before a sustained up-move can be expected. From here, allow for a dip to 1.5660 but 1.5625/30 is expected to hold for another attempt to take out 1.5720. Neutral: A higher GBP is likely only upon a clear break above 1.5720. The sideway consolidation over the last few trading days appears to be close to completion. We continue to expect a higher GBP in the coming days/weeks but this is likely only upon a clear break above 1.5720 (say a daily closing above this level). Bank Rate: 0.50% Last Change: -0.50% in Mar 2009 Next BOE Meeting: 06-Aug-15 GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15 +0.7% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd estimate): 28-Aug-15 CPI YoY: +0.0% in Jun 0.1% in Jul Aug Release: 15-Sep-15 Unemployment: 5.6% in May 5.6% in Jun Jul Release: 16-Sep-15 Services PMI: 58.5 in Jun 57.4 in Jul Aug Release: 03-Sep-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 1.60 end 4Q15: 1.62 end 1Q16: 1.64 end 2Q16: 1.67 UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.5% end 4Q15: 0.5% end 1Q16: 0.5% end 2Q16: 0.75%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 9 AUD/USD: 0.7265 AUD finished last week with the worst performance in 7 months, dropping over 2% against its top counterparts as global risk aversion weighed on the sentiment-linked and commodity-laden currency. We expect the continued rout across emerging-market assets and global equities to rekindle speculation that the RBA will need to embark on further monetary easing, adding further weight on the AUD. The key release in Australia is the Q2 CAPEX report on Thursday. But comments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will be watched. He will be speaking at the National Reform summit organized by The Australian and The Australian Financial Review newspapers on Wednesday. AUD closed at 0.7315 last Friday but dropped sharply this morning to touch a low of 0.7251. The sharp drop is likely the start of a sustained down-move that could extend much lower in the coming days. For now, barring an unexpected move back above 0.7315, the current weakness is expected to test the recent low near 0.7215/20. Neutral: Daily closing below the key 0.7250 support would indicate the start of a fresh bearish phase in AUD. AUD tested the key support at 0.7250 earlier this morning and a daily closing below this level would indicate the start of new bearish phase in AUD. This appears to be a likely scenario unless there is a move back above 0.7320 in the next 1 to 2 days. Cash Rate: 2.00% Last Change: -0.25% in May 2015 Next RBA Meeting: 01-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 4Q14 +0.9% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 03-Sep-15 CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15 +1.5% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release: 28-Oct-15 Unemployment: 6.1% in Jun 6.3% in Jul Jul Release: 11-Sep-15 Trade Balance: -2750m in May -2933m in Jun Jul Release: 03-Sep-15 Capex: -2.2% 4Q14-4.4% 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 27-Aug-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.75 end 4Q15: 0.74 end 1Q16: 0.74 end 2Q16: 0.73 UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.00% end 4Q15: 2.00% end 1Q16: 2.00% end 2Q16: 2.00% NZD/USD: 0.6620 NZD seems to be the better performer of the commodity trio, seen hovering around the 0.6620 levels. The currency saw some support from last week s jump in dairy prices at the GDT auction. This week, New Zealand sees RBNZ inflation expectations on Tuesday and July's trade balance on Wednesday. The anticipated NZD strength exceeded our 0.6640 target by a wide margin with a high of 0.6708 last Friday. The sharp reversal from the high early this morning has resulted in a mixed outlook. Overall, it is likely that we have seen a temporary top at 0.6708 but the current weakness is likely part of a broad sideway range instead of a bearish reversal. Expect range trading today, likely between 0.6580 and 0.6685. Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.6540 and 0.6730. The recent short-term upward pressure has eased with the sharp pull-back from the high of 0.6708 last Friday. For now, we continue to hold a neutral view for this pair and expect further choppy trading between 0.6540 and 0.6740. Official Cash Rate: 3.00% Last Change: -0.25% in Jul 2015 Next RBNZ Meeting: 10-Sep-15 GDP QoQ: +0.8% in 4Q14 +0.2% in 1Q15 2Q15 Release: 17-Sep-15 CPI QoQ: -0.3% in 1Q15 +0.4% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 23-Oct-15 Unemployment: 5.8% in 1Q15 5.9% in 2Q15 3Q15 Release: 04-Nov-15 UOB FX Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.66 end 4Q15: 0.64 end 1Q16: 0.63 end 2Q16: 0.62 UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 2.75% end 4Q15: 2.50% end 1Q16: 2.50% end 2Q16: 2.50%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 10 USD/JPY: 121.70 JPY has jumped to 6-week highs on the back of heightened demand for safe assets and intensifying risk aversion on Friday. We think the bearish trend on the USD is likely to continue unless we see any renewed signs of hopes for a September rate hike. Meanwhile, this is a heavy week for data in Japan, starting with the leading index later this afternoon. PPI data and small business confidence index for August are due on Tuesday, followed by the jobless rate, retail trade and CPI data on Thursday. Inflation data for Japan will also be reviewed on Friday. While we anticipated USD weakness to extend lower, the clear break below 123.00 was unexpected. The acceleration lower appears incomplete and further USD weakness towards 121.05/10 is likely. Strong resistance is at 122.20. Neutral: Oversold but further USD weakness towards last month s low at 120.35/40 cannot be ruled out. The ease of which the key support at 123.00 taken out took us by surprise. The outlook for this pair is clearly bearish now and we have already exceeded the major 121.50. While we believe that that we have seen a bulk of the move, extension lower towards last month s low at 120.35/40 cannot be ruled out just. Only a move back above 123.00 would indicate that a short-term low is in place. Overnight Call Rate: 0.0-0.1% Last Change: -0.20% in Dec 2008 Next BOJ Meeting: 15-Sep-15 GDP QoQ Annualized: +4.5% in 1Q15-1.6% in 2Q15 2Q15 Release (2 nd reading): 08-Sep-15 CPI Core YoY: +0.1% in May +0.1% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Industrial Production MoM: -2.1% in May +0.8% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 Household Spending: +4.8% in May -2.0% in Jun Jul Release: 28-Aug-15 UOB FX forecast: end 3Q15: 126 end 4Q15: 127 end 1Q16: 129 end 2Q16: 130 UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 3Q15: 0.0-0.1% end 4Q15: 0.0-0.1% end 1Q16: 0.0-0.1% end 2Q16: 0.0-0.1% UOB FX and Interest Rate Outlook FX Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Last updated: 24 Aug 15 Rates Outlook 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 EUR/USD 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.12 EU 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% GBP/USD 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.67 UK 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.75% AUD/USD 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 AU 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% USD/JPY 126 127 129 130 JP 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% USD/SGD 1.45 1.43 1.45 1.46 SG 1.25% 1.15% 1.22% 1.27% USD/MYR 4.26 4.20 4.18 4.15 MY 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% USD/THB 35.5 35.5 35.8 36.0 TH 1.50% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% USD/CNY 6.40 6.45 6.48 6.53 CN 4.60% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% USD/IDR 13900 14000 14100 14100 ID 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% USD/PHP 43.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 PH 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% USD/INR 64.8 66.0 65.0 64.0 IN 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% 7.25% USD/TWD 31.4 31.8 32.0 31.7 TW 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% USD/HKD 7.75 7.75 7.80 7.80 HK 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% USD/KRW 1130 1140 1150 1130 KR 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% US 0.5% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25%
Monday, 24 August 2015 Page 11 24-Aug-15 FX Pairs Spot Outlook USD/SGD 1.4125 Bullish EUR/SGD 1.6075 Bullish GBP/SGD 2.2145 Bullish AUD/SGD 1.0260 Neutral JPY/SGD 1.1620 Bullish USD/MYR 4.2350 Bullish USD/THB 35.72 Bullish USD/CNH 6.4520 Bullish EUR/USD 1.1390 Bullish GBP/USD 1.5680 Neutral AUD/USD 0.7265 Neutral NZD/USD 0.6620 Neutral USD/JPY 121.70 Bearish Summary of Views Since Rate 24 Aug 15 1.4125 24 Jul 15 1.5035 12 Aug 15 2.1940 19 Aug 15 1.0305 11 Aug 15 1.1175 06 Jul 15 3.8040 19 Aug 15 35.57 27 Jul 15 6.2135 21 Aug 15 1.1135 13 Jul 15 1.5500 13Aug 15 0.7380 13 Aug 15 0.6615 24 Aug 15 121.70 Target Trailing-stop Support Resistance 1.4215 1.4020 1.6205 1.5800 2.2200 1.5820 1.5550 2.1920 2.1850 - - 1.1845 1.1455 4.2800 4.1600 35.78 6.6000 6.3500 1.1465 1.1365 1.1420 1.1290 4.1200 4.0100 35.50 35.43 6.4000 6.3850 1.1220 1.1105 - - - - - - 120.35 123.00 S1: 1.4100 S2: 1.4020 S1: 1.5940 S2: 1.5820 S1: 2.2070 S2: 2.1920 S1: 1.0225 S2: 1.0200 S1: 1.1520 S2: 1.1420 S1: 4.1850 S2: 4.1200 S1: 35.57 S2: 35.50 S1: 6.4300 S2: 6.4000 S1: 1.1295 S2: 1.1220 S1: 1.5640 S2: 1.5590 S1: 0.7250 S2: 0.7215 S1: 0.6540 S2: 0.6510 S1: 121.00 S2: 120.35 R1: 1.4165 R2: 1.4215 R1: 1.6150 R2: 1.6205 R1: 2.2200 R2: 2.2350 R1: 1.0300 R2: 1.0350 R1: 1.1720 R2: 1.1845 R1: 4.2550 R2: 4.2800 R1: 35.78 R2: 36.00 R1: 6.5100 R2: 6.5600 R1: 1.1465 R2: 1.1535 R1: 1.5720 R2: 1.5790 R1: 0.7320 R2: 0.7400 R1: 0.6670 R2: 0.6740 R1: 122.20 R2: 123.00 FX Pairs Ranges for 21-Aug-15 * Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price 1-period ago. ** Percentage difference between the closing price and the last price on 31-Dec-14. Performance* Open High Low Close 1-day 1-week 1-month YTD** USD/SGD 1.4026 1.4098 1.4025 1.4079 +0.40% +0.08% +3.13% +6.17% EUR/SGD 1.5761 1.6036 1.5746 1.6031 +1.71% +2.65% +7.41% -0.01% GBP/SGD 2.1990 2.2142 2.1971 2.2095 +0.46% +0.45% +3.66% +7.04% AUD/SGD 1.0284 1.0338 1.0254 1.0304 +0.18% -0.55% +2.37% -4.82% JPY/SGD 1.1361 1.1541 1.1355 1.1536 +1.55% +1.99% +4.77% +4.19% USD/MYR 4.1342 4.1840 4.1170 4.1726 +0.92% +2.29% +10.0% +19.3% USD/THB 35.57 35.73 35.56 35.68 +0.28% +1.24% +2.79% +8.44% USD/CNH 6.4380 6.4565 6.4350 6.4565 +0.28% +0.02% +3.94% +3.85% EUR/USD 1.1242 1.1391 1.1226 1.1387 +1.29% +2.53% +4.15% -5.86% GBP/USD 1.5692 1.5724 1.5658 1.5685-0.01% +0.22% +0.47% +0.70% AUD/USD 0.7335 0.7360 0.7285 0.7315-0.29% -0.81% -0.88% -10.3% NZD/USD 0.6626 0.6708 0.6607 0.6683 +0.78% +2.21% +1.61% -14.2% USD/JPY 123.40 123.49 121.80 122.01-1.11% -1.84% -1.55% +1.94% Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences, of the transaction and that the reader is able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise.