Dar Al-Arkan Company 1Q 2011 Results Update Research Division Company Reports May 2011 Please read Disclaimer on the back Page 1 of 34 All rights reserved, AlJAZIRA March CAPITAL 2010
Research Division Head of Research Abdullah Alawi +966 2 6618275 a.alawi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Assistant Manager Saleh Al-Quati +966 2 6618253 s.alquati@aljaziracapital.com.sa Assistant Manager Mohammed S. Javed +966 2 6618271 s.mohammed@aljaziracapital.com.sa Brokerage Division General Manager - Brokerage Division Ala a Al-Yousef +966 1 2256000 a.yousef@aljaziracapital.com.sa Regional Manager West and South Regions Abdullah Al-Misbahi +966 2 6618404 a.almisbahi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Regional Manager Central Region Sultan Al-Mutawa +966 1 2256364 s.almutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa Area Manager - Qassim & Eastern Province Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 6 3617547 aalrahit@aljaziracapital.com.sa Head of International and Institutional Brokerage Amjad Subeih +966 2 6618257 a.subeih@aljaziracapital.com.sa Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), License No. 07076-37
1Q 2011 Results Update KSA Real Estate May 2011 REPORT SUMMARY Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Development Company (DAAR) s top - and bottom-line performance was hurt during 2010 and 1Q 11 due to lower sales volumes of land and residential units and reduced profit margins. Following this poor performance throughout 2010 and 1Q 11 and project delays, we revise our estimates and 12 months price target downwards. Nevertheless, the company witnessed some enhanced activity in Land sales the largest revenue contributor as reflected in increased revenues during 4Q 10. Based on the above, we believe that land sales would be a key factor driving growth in 2011, until residential projects revenues start contributing in 2012. The stock has taken a beating primarily on debt concerns that were exaggerated, in our opinion, as next significant debt is repayable in 2012 by which time, we believe, DAAR would be in a better position financially. KEY INSIGHTS Following a 24.2% YoY decline in 2010, DAAR s revenues fell 16.6% YoY to SAR 955.2mn in 1Q 11 due to a sharp decline in revenues from the Residential and Land segments. Revenues dipped 8.6% YoY to SAR 938.5mn in the Land segment and 90.3% YoY to SAR 11.3mn in the Residential segment in 1Q 11. Total cost of sales, as a percentage of revenues, rose to 61.6% in 1Q 11 from 58.2% in 1Q 10. Consequently, gross profit contracted by 23.4% YoY to SAR 336.73mn during the period. Reduction in gross profit margins can be attributed to unfavorable geographic mix of land and reduced sales of residential units. Operating margin declined to 35.6% in 1Q 11 from 38.0% in 1Q 10, due to lower gross margins. Consequently, operating profit fell 22.0% YoY to SAR 339.56mn during the quarter. The company s bottom line replicated its operating performance with a 31.5% YoY decline in net income to SAR 273.1mn in 1Q 11. Net margin stood at 28.6% during the quarter compared to 34.8% in 1Q 10. STOCK PRICE DECLINED 33.2% SINCE OUR INITIATION DAAR s stock price witnessed a sharp correction (33.2%) since our initiation published on March 15, 2010. This was mainly led by investor concerns about the company s ability to service its debt obligations as well as finance large-ticket projects amid a weak financial performance during 2010 due to slower activity in regional real estate markets. The stock also underperformed the benchmark Tadawul All Share Index (TASI), which gained nominal 1.8% during the period. However, despite challenging market conditions, DAAR successfully raised SAR 1.7bn from a sukuk issue in February 2010, reflecting the underlying strength of its business model. This coupled with internal cash accruals enabled the company to repay SAR 2,250mn of debt in 2Q 10 that, in turn, helped lower the total debt to SAR 7,770.3mn in 2010 from SAR 8,354.7mn in 2009. Rating: Overweight Current Price: SAR 9.15 12 Months Price Target: SAR 10.22 Upside Potential:11.7% Price Chart 17 15 13 11 9 7 Nov-09 DAAR TASI Key information Reuters code: 4300.SE Bloomberg code: ALARKAN AB Country: Saudi Arabia Sector: Real Estate Primary Listing: TASI M-Cap: SAR 9.9 bn 52 Weeks H/L: SAR 14.60/7.40 5 Apr-11 Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Development Company (DAAR) Established in 1994 by six prominent business families, Dar Al-Arkan is a leading real estate company in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. DAAR primarily focuses on three core businesses: land development (p u r c h a s i n g a n d d e v e l o p i n g infrastructure on raw land parcels), master-planned lifestyle communities (development of residential and commercial space), and property management (leasing and rental of residential, commercial and retail space). The company has its head office in Riyadh and substantial presence throughout the Kingdom through its branch offices in Mecca, Jeddah and Madinah. 8 7 6 Page 1 of 3 May 2011
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS On April 04, 2011, DAAR signed a memorandum of understanding with Abdulmuhsin Al Hokair Tourism and Development Group for the inauguration of an amusement park at Alqasr Mall. The leased space, 8,000 square meters for 10 years, will be used exclusively for establishing a world-class amusement and electronic games park. On January 12, 2011, DAAR signed a 14-year lease agreement with Saudi Hypermarkets Co. (Carrefour KSA), renting 8,700 square meters in Al Qasr Mall. In addition, in June 2010, the company completed a fixed-to-floating profit rate swap agreement for 50% of its new sukuk issues. The deal would reduce the annual coupon profit rate on these sukuk issues from 10.75% to the three-month Saudi Interbank Offered Rate, or Saibor rate, plus 7.95%. OUTLOOK DAAR reported weak financial performance in 2010 amid slow recovery in KSA s real estate sector that pushed prices and volumes lower, as well as delay in project completions. The company s prime residential project, Shams ArRiyadh, is facing execution delays and cost pressure. As of 2010-end, Shams ArRiyadh is only 28% complete, and hence is not likely to be completed by end of 2012 as scheduled earlier. Nonetheless, Land sales is likely to be a key revenue growth driver in 2011, with residential projects revenues start contributing meaningfully by 2012. Residential projects revenue is likely to peak at SAR 3.5bn in 2013. Rental income is likely to generate steady revenue, increasing from SAR 202mn in 2011 to SAR 330mn in 2015. Recent funding concerns have severely hurt DAAR s share price performance. However, the company is comfortably placed to repay its financial obligations, in our opinion, with no near-term debt maturities (next is due in 2012). Hence, we believe the current stock price hammering has more than priced in all the bad news. DAAR has a strong pipeline of residential projects, with significant exposure in the affordable housing segment that currently faces a supply shortage. Thus, we continue to maintain a positive outlook for the company s stock. REVISION IN ESTIMATES We have provided quarterly estimates for DAAR in addition to the annual forecast in our initiation dated March 15, 2010. The company s financial performance was weaker than expected throughout 2010 and 1Q 2011. Moreover, recovery in the real estate sector in KSA remains slow as evident from lower sales volume and profit margins during the year. Therefore, we have revised our annual estimates downward to reflect the change in volume and pricing assumptions. Consequently, we adjusted our revenue and net income forecast for 2011. Table 1: Key Financial and Valuation Data (Revision) Revision in estimates 2011E (All fig in SAR mn, unless otherwise 1Q11A 2Q11E 3Q11E 4Q11E Previous Revised stated) Sales 955.2 1,002.9 1,063.1 1,173.5 5,969.4 4,194.7 Gross Profit 366.6 401.2 446.5 537.6 2,797.6 1,751.9 Margin 38.4% 40.0% 42.0% 45.8% 46.9% 41.8% EBIT 339.6 369.0 412.6 480.4 2,586.9 1,601.6 Margin 35.6% 36.8% 38.8% 40.9% 43.3% 38.2% Net Income 273.1 327.2 378.4 451.6 2,331.9 1,430.3 Margin 28.6% 32.6% 35.6% 38.5% 39.1% 34.1% EPS (SAR ) 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.42 2.2 1.3 AlJazira Capital Page 2 of 3 May 2011
VALUATION Considering our revised outlook and estimates, we also adjusted our 12 Months Price Target of SAR 19.1 for DAAR s stock (provided in our initiation report) to SAR 10.22. This implies an upside potential of 11.7% from the current price level. Our 12 Months Price Target is derived from a weighted average of Net Asset Value (NAV), Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and peer comparison-based methods. We assigned equal weight to the three valuation methodologies to arrive at the company s 12 Months Price Target. Table 2: Weighted Average Valuation Summary (SAR) Methodologies Weights Previous 12 MPT (SAR) Revised 12 MPT (SAR) Weighted Average (SAR) 12 MPT using NAV approach 33.3% 20.0 9.8 3.27 12 MPT using DCF approach 33.3% 18.8 10.3 3.45 12 MPT using P/BV approach 33.3% 18.5 10.5 3.50 Weighted Average 12 Months Price Target (12MPT) 10.22 Current stock price (SAR) 9.15 Upside/ (Downside) potential (%) 11.7% AlJazira Capital INVESTMENT RISKS Delay in economic recovery and a correction in oil prices due to continued slowdown in the economy could hurt business activities and investor sentiment in the Kingdom. This, in turn, may adversely affect the real estate market in terms of lower demand and prices. Such a scenario is also likely to negatively impact our valuation. Our estimate for Land sales, a major contributor to total revenue, is based on the assumption of an average selling price (ASP) of SAR 615 per square meter during 2011 15 around 7.0% higher than that during 2009 10, but almost 27% lower than the 2007 level. A further decline in ASP beyond our expectation could significantly impact our forecast. DAAR issued its fourth sukuk worth SAR 1.7bn (USD450mn) in February 2010, thereby enhancing its leverage. Thus, failure to secure financing or delay in development work due to non-availability of funds could undermine the company s ability to meet its debt obligations. Page 3 of 3 May 2011
Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries & Medical Appliances Corporation COMPANY PROFILE AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. Rating Terminology 1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Overweight will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. 2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Underweight would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. 3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Neutral is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. 4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company. For further queries about our special services, contact us at the toll free number 800 116 9999. Page 1 of 27 April 2010
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