Lebanon s major entrepreneurship weakness is in product innovation, being the ability to provide unique products or services. The country s greatest strength in entrepreneurship is found in its perception of startup skills as well as in networking. Lebanon is the 7 th most entrepreneurial country in the MENA region The US-based Global Entrepreneurship and Development Institute (GEDI) released its Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) for 2015 which measures the quality and the scale of the entrepreneurial process in 130 countries around the world. The GEI measures entrepreneurial attitudes, abilities and aspirations of the local population. The GEI uses 14 index pillars such as start-up skills, networking and cultural support in order to benchmark countries entrepreneurial ecosystems. GEI s overall score is measured on a scale from zero to 90, where higher values indicate a greater degree of entrepreneurship power. Lebanon ranked 50 th worldwide and 7 th among 14 countries in the MENA region. Lebanon s major weakness in entrepreneurship is in product innovation which is a measure of a country s potential to generate new products. Lebanon also scored low on the technology absorption pillar which is a measure of a country s capacity for firm-level technology absorption. In contrast, Lebanon s greatest strengths are in startup skills as well as in networking which combines an entrepreneur s personal knowledge with the ability to use the internet for business purposes. GEI Rank Country Entrepreneurial Attitudes Entrepreneurial Abilities Entrepreneurial Aspirations GEI Score 20 UAE 55.8 57.6 71.4 61.6 24 Qatar 52.8 59 56.7 56.2 31 Saudi Arabia 56.9 42 49.9 49.6 37 Kuwait 41.1 55.5 46.5 47.7 39 Oman 45.9 53.4 42.6 47.3 43 Bahrain 47.5 51 36.8 45.1 50 Lebanon 50.8 35.6 35.8 40.7 63 Tunisia 39.2 36.5 30.7 35.5 65 Jordan 41.7 23.8 34.3 33.3 73 Libya 27.1 36.8 29 31 79 Algeria 35.8 28.8 26.1 30.2 82 Morocco 39.2 21.1 28.1 29.4 91 Egypt 34.4 19.4 30.5 28.1 94 Iran 32.1 27.3 23.6 27.7 Source: GEDI, BankMed Research The 14 Pillars of Entrepreneurship Lebanon's Pillar Scores* from Best to Worst: Startup Skills 0.79 Networking 0.76 Opportunity Perception 0.69 Internationalization 0.63 Human Capital 0.46 High Growth 0.42 Competition 0.4 Opportunity Startup 0.34 Risk Acceptance 0.34 Process Innovation 0.3 Cultural Support 0.29 Risk Capital 0.27 Technology Absorption 0.26 Product Innovation 0.25 *scores vary between 0 (lowest) to 1.00 (highest). Source: GEDI, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 1
Lebanon ranks 9 th out of 17 Arab countries in the economic freedom Index 2015. Lebanon s economic freedom score witnessed declines in the control of government spending, monetary freedom, and business freedom offsetting improvements in freedom from corruption, labor freedom, and fiscal freedom. Lebanon ranks 94 th freest country in the world in 2015 According to the Heritage Foundation s 2015 Economic Freedom Index, Lebanon ranked 94th freest among 186 countries included in the survey. The index measures the degree of economic freedom in each country on the basis of 10 components that are divided into four categories: rule of law, government size, regulatory efficiency, and market openness. Economic freedom is measured on a scale from zero to 100, where higher values indicate a greater degree of economic freedom. Lebanon received a score of 59.3 points, with a loss of 0.1 point reflecting declines in the control of government spending, monetary freedom, and business freedom that offset improvements in freedom from corruption, labor freedom, and fiscal freedom. Lebanon ranked 9 th out of 17 Arab countries, and its overall score is below the respective Arab and world averages of 63.6 points and 60.4 points. It noted that Lebanon s score was positioned in the moderately free range, but has fallen back to mostly unfree over the past three years. MOSTLY FREE Country Arab Rank Overall Rank Score Bahrain 1 18 73.4 UAE 2 25 72.4 Qatar 3 32 70.8 MODERATELY FREE Jordan 4 38 69.3 Oman 5 56 66.7 Kuwait 6 74 62.5 Saudi Arabia 7 77 62.1 Morocco 8 89 60.1 Economic Freedom Categories Lebanon Score (1-100) Rank / 186 MOSTLY UNFREE Lebanon 9 94 59.3 Tunisia 10 107 57.7 Egypt 11 124 55.2 Yemen 12 133 53.7 Rule of Law Property rights 20 138 Freedom from corruption 28 132 Gorvenment Size Fiscal freedom 91.3 25 Government spending 70.6 85 REPRESSED Algeria 13 157 48.9 Iraq N/A N/A N/A Libya N/A N/A N/A Sydan N/A N/A N/A Syria N/A N/A N/A Regulatory Efficiency Business freedom 54.7 133 Labor freedom 60.7 100 Monetary freedom 72 135 Market Openness Trade freedom 75.8 97 Investment freedom 60 81 Financial freedom 60 39 Source: The Heritage Foundation, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 2
Country Comparisons! Lebanon! 59.3! World! Average! 60.4! Arab! Average! 63.6! Free! Economies! 84.6! 0! 20! 40! 60! 80! 100! Source: The Heritage Foundation, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 3
Total imports decreased by a yearly 3.5% to reach USD 20,494 million in 2014, while total exports dropped by 15.8% to reach USD 3,313 million. Exports to Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share (11%) of Lebanon s total exports in 2014. Trade deficit slightly narrows by 1% in 2014 Lebanon s foreign trade deficit reached USD 17,181 million in 2014, a narrowing of 0.6% when compared to USD 17,292 million recorded in 2013. This is attributed to an annual decrease in imports by 3.5%, reaching USD 20,494 million along with a 15.8% drop in exports to reach USD 3,313 million. In terms of country of origin, imports from China accounted for the largest share (12%) of Lebanon s total imports in 2014, with value of USD 2,484 million, followed by Italy and France with shares of 8% and 6% respectively. Imports of mineral products topped the list of Lebanese imports accounting for 24% of the total, followed by machinery & electrical instruments (11%), products of the chemical (10%), and base metals & articles of base metals (7%). As for country of destination, Saudi Arabia took the largest share of exports from Lebanon over the same period, accounting for 11% of the total (USD 377 million), followed by UAE with a 10% share (USD 320 million), and South Africa with a 9% share (USD 297 million). Pearls, precious or semiprecious stones topped Lebanese exports accounting for 17% of the total, followed by prepared foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco (16%), and machinery & electrical instruments (13%). Trade Balance (USD million)! -4000! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! -6000! -8000! -10000! -12000! -14000! -12,758! -13,711! -16000! -15,893! -18000! -16,797! -17,292! -17,181! -20000! Source: Lebanese Customs, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 4
Total public revenues increased by a yearly 11% to reach USD 8,830 million, while total public spending decreased by 1% to reach USD 11,268 million in January- October 2014. Telecom revenues contributed USD 1,070 million to total public revenues in the first ten months of 2014. Fiscal deficit declines by a yearly 31% in the first ten months of 2014 Lebanon s total fiscal deficit reached USD 2,438 million in January-October 2014, shrinking from the USD 3,519 million deficit recorded in the first ten months of 2013. In parallel, the primary balance, which excludes debt service payments, registered a surplus of USD 1,126 million in January-October 2014, compared to a deficit of USD 313 million registered in the same months of the previous year. Total revenues, including transfers from Telecom, increased by 11% y-o-y to reach USD 8,830 million by the end of January-October 2014, of which USD 7,862 million were budget revenues and USD 968 million treasury receipts. Of the total budget revenues, tax revenues amounted to USD 6,071 million in the aforementioned period, recording a yearly increase of 3.6%. VAT recorded USD 1,968 million in January-October 2014, while customs revenues reached USD 1,132 million. As for non-tax revenues, they recorded an 11.8% y-o-y increase reaching USD 1,791 million, among which USD 1,070 million were in transfers from Telecom. With respect to spending, the public expenditures decreased by 1% to reach USD 11,268 million in January-October 2014. Transfers to EDL decreased by 9.3% y-o-y to reach USD 1,629 million in the same period, while interest payments increased by an annual 12.1% to reach USD 3,411 million. Treasury expenditures decreased by 42% y-o-y to reach USD 1,436 million in January-October 2014. Lebanon Fiscal Balance! (USD million)! 0! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! -500! -1000! -1500! -1,514! -2000! -2500! -3000! -2,412! -2,508! -2,676! -2,438! -3500! -3,519! -4000! Source: Ministry of Finance, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 5
BANKING & FINANCE Byblos Bank s net loans increased by a year-on- year 4.9%, while total deposits increased by 6.0% in 2014. Byblos Bank records USD 175.7 million of net profits at end-2014 Byblos Bank declared net profits of USD 175.7 million at end-december 2014, going up by 12.5% from USD 156.2 million recorded in 2013. Total assets reached USD 19 billion as of end- December 2014, compared to USD 18.5 billion at end-december 2013, while net customers loans increased by 4.9%, reaching USD 4.7 billion at end-december 2014. The bank s customers deposits reached USD 15.7 billion in 2014, going up from USD 14.8 billion at end-2013 (+6%). Also, the shareholders' equity amounted to USD 1.69 billion at end- December 2014, going up by USD 38 million from end-december 2013. Byblos Bank Financials (billion USD) Dec-14 Dec-13 % change Total Assets 19.0 18.5 3.0% Net Customers' Loans 4.7 4.5 4.9% Total Deposits 15.7 14.8 6.0% Total Equity 1.69 1.65 2.4% Net Profits (million USD) 175.7 156.2 12.5% Source: Company Data, BankMed Research Bank of Beirut s total assets increased by a yearly 9.7% to reach USD 15 billion at end- 2014. Bank of Beirut records a 17.9% yearly increase in net profits to reach USD 147.8 million at end-december 2014 Bank of Beirut released its consolidated financial statement for the period ended December 2014. The bank s net profits reached USD 147.8 million, going up by 17.9% from USD 125.4 million at end-december 2013. Total assets reached USD 15 billion at end-2014, compared to USD 13.6 billion at end-2013, while net customers loans reached USD 4.2 billion, going up from USD 3.8 million at end- December 2013. On the liabilities side, total deposits reached USD 11.1 billion, going up from USD 10.3 billion at year-end 2013. Shareholders equity advanced by 19.8% to reach USD 1.8 billion at end-december 2014. Bank of Beirut Financials (billion USD) Dec-14 Dec-13 % change Total Assets 15.0 13.6 9.7% Net Customers' Loans 4.2 3.8 10.5% Total Deposits 11.1 10.3 8.1% Total Equity 1.8 1.5 19.8% Net Profits (million USD) 147.8 125.4 17.9% Source: Company Data, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 6
BANKING & FINANCE Net customers loans increased by a yearly 3%, while total deposits remained stable in 2014. BLC Bank achieves USD 43.3 million in net profits in 2014 BLC Bank declared net profits of USD 43.3 million at end-december 2014, constituting an increase of 3% from USD 42.1 million recorded in 2013. Total assets reached USD 5.3 billion as at end-2014, compared to USD 5.1 billion at end-2013, while net customers loans increased by 3%, reaching USD 1.9 billion at end-december 2014. The bank s customers total deposits remained stable and reached USD 4.3 billion at end-2014. Also, the shareholders' equity reached USD 477 million at end-december 2014, going up by USD 36 million from end-december 2013. BLC Bank Financials (billion USD) Dec-14 Dec-13 % change Total Assets 5.3 5.1 4% Net Customers' Loans 1.94 1.88 3% Total Deposits 4.3 4.3 0% Total Equity 0.477 0.441 8% Net Profits (million USD) 43.3 42.1 3% Source: Company Data, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 7
BANKING & FINANCE BDL s gold reserves went up by 1.7% yearly, while foreign assets jumped by 6.3% at end-january 2015. The Central Bank s assets reach USD 87.1 billion at end-january 2015 with USD 11.7 billion in gold reserves Banque du Liban (BDL) s bi-monthly balance sheet as of end-january 2015 reported total assets of USD 87.1 billion, recording an increase by 11.5% from end-january 2014 and 1.7% from end- December 2014 when they amounted to USD 85.7 billion. Gold stood at USD 11.7 billion as of end-january 2015 going up by 1.7% y-o-y, while foreign assets increased by 6.3% on a y-o-y basis to reach USD 37.9 billion in the same period. Loans to the local financial sector increased by a yearly 70% to reach USD 4.3 billion as of end-january 2015. On the liabilities side, BDL reported an increase of 17.9% y-o-y in financial sector deposits to reach USD 68.7 billion, accounting for around 79% of total liabilities along with a 21.4% y-o-y decrease in public sector deposits amounting to USD 5.8 billion in the same period. 18! BDL Gold Reserves! (USD Billion)! 16! 14! 12! 10! 8! 6! Jan-09! Mar-09! May-09! Jul-09! Sep-09! Nov-09! Jan-10! Mar-10! May-10! Jul-10! Sep-10! Nov-10! Jan-11! Mar-11! May-11! Jul-11! Sep-11! Nov-11! Jan-12! Mar-12! May-12! Jul-12! Sep-12! Nov-12! Jan-13! Mar-13! May-13! Jul-13! Sep-13! Nov-13! Jan-14! Mar-14! May-14! Jul-14! Sep-14! Nov-14! Jan-15! Source: BDL, BankMed Research BankMed - Market & Economic Research Division 8
BANKING & FINANCE Term and saving deposits in LBP dropped by USD 23 million during the fiftyfifth week of the year. Deposits denominated in foreign currencies progress by USD 50 million during the week of January 16-22, 2015 On the monetary front, the overall money supply M4 decreased by 0.03% during the week of January 16-22, 2015 to around USD 123.9 billion while the non-banking sector treasury bills portfolio went up by USD 9 million over the preceding week. Lebanese Pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation M1 decreased by 1.5% (or USD 74 million) during the aforementioned week to USD 5 billion. This is mainly due to a decrease in money in circulation by USD 88 million which outweighed an increase in demand deposits by USD 14 million. Moreover, local currency term deposits M2 dropped by USD 97 million during the same week and registered a twelve-month increase of 5.94% to stand at USD 48.4 billion. The private sector term and saving deposits denominated in LBP (M2 - M1) went down by USD 23 million during the mentioned week to USD 43.4 billion, while deposits denominated in foreign currencies (M3 - M2) progressed by USD 50 million during the week to reach USD 68.5 billion. Money Supply Week of January 16-22, 2015 (billion USD) 15-Jan-15 22-Jan-15 Absolute change over week M1 5.108 5.034-0.074 M2 48.511 48.414-0.097 M3 116.962 116.916-0.046 M4 123.903 123.866-0.037 M2-M1 43.403 43.381-0.023 M3-M2 68.451 68.501 0.050 M1 = Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits in LBP M2 = M1 + Other deposits in LBP M3 = M2 + Deposits in FX M4 = M3 + TBs held by non banking system including accrued interests Source: BDL, BankMed Research Mazen Soueid, Stephanie Ghanem, Ziad Hariri and Rita Nehme Disclaimer This material has been prepared by BankMed, sal based on publicly available information and personal analysis. It is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be used as a research tool nor as a basis or reference for any decision. The information contained herein including any opinion, news and analysis, is based on various publicly available sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and may be subject to change without notice. BankMed, sal does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, continued availability or completeness of such information. All data contained herein are indicative. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed therein, constitutes a solicitation, offer, personal recommendation or advice. BankMed, sal does not assume any liability for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential damages resulting from any use of the information contained herein.