4Q and Full Year 2016 Earnings Presentation. February 8, 2017

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Transcription:

4Q and Full Year 2016 Earnings Presentation February 8, 2017

Cautionary Language Regarding Forward-Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and by the use of forward-looking words such as expect, expectation, believe, anticipate, may, could, intend, belief, plan, estimate, target, predict, likely, will, should, forecast, outlook or similar terminology. These statements are based on current estimates and assumptions made by us in light of our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that we believe are appropriate and reasonable under the circumstances, but there can be no assurance that such estimates and assumptions will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding the future business plans and earnings and performance of Yum China, anticipated effects of population and macroeconomic trends, and statements regarding the capital structure of Yum China. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance and are inherently subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and could cause our actual results to differ materially from those indicated by those statements. We cannot assure you that any of our expectations, estimates or assumptions will be achieved. The forward-looking statements included in this presentation are only made as of the date of this presentation, and we disclaim any obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law. Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, including, without limitation: whether we are able to achieve development goals at the times and in the amounts currently anticipated, if at all, the success of our marketing campaigns and product innovation, our ability to maintain food safety and quality control systems, our ability to control costs and expenses, including tax costs, as well as changes in political, economic and regulatory conditions in China. In addition, other risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently believe to be immaterial could affect the accuracy of any such forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements should be evaluated with the understanding of their inherent uncertainty. You should consult our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (including the information set forth under the captions Risk Factors and Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Statements in the Information Statement included in our Registration Statement on Form 10) for additional detail about factors that could affect our financial and other results. This presentation includes certain non-gaap financial measures. Reconciliation of these non-gaap financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in this presentation where indicated. You are urged to consider carefully the comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations. 2

Agenda 2016 Highlights Company Overview Brand Performance Financial Results Summary & Outlook Q&A 3

2016 Highlights Company Successfully completed NYSE listing on Nov 1 Surpassed 7,500 restaurants in 1,100 cities across Mainland China Turnaround SSSG on +3% same store sales growth at KFC, strong profit growth & margin improvement Launched our first Taco Bell in Shanghai Financials System sales grew 5% YoY with flat SSSG, ex FX; Restaurant margin improved to 15.3% vs 12.6% last year Operating profit before special items reached US$655mn, up 37% YoY ex FX; On diluted basis, our EPS was $1.36, up 53% YoY Development Opened 575 new restaurants, remodeled 791 stores Over 75% of our stores were built in the last five years, well positioned for future growth Digital & Delivery Total delivery sales about US$700mn, about 10% of company sales; Mobile payment around 17% of company sales, Cashless payments over $2bn; We have over 60mn loyalty members at KFC, and 20mn members at Pizza Hut Note: Operating profit before special items is a non-gaap financial measure. See the appendix for a reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent 4

Agenda 2016 Highlights Company Overview Brand Performance Financial Results Summary & Outlook Q&A 5

2017 Marks the 30 th Anniversary of KFC in China Our first KFC was opened in Beijing in 1987 6

An Unrivalled Presence across Mainland China Over 7500 Restaurants in 1100 cities 8000 7000 6000 5726 6243 6715 7176 7562 5000 4000 3000 2000 2121 2558 3013 3453 3906 4493 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 KFC Pizza Hut Others Industry Leading 575 Gross New Builds in 2016 1 Gross new builds 7

Our Key Competitive Strengths 1 Unrivalled Network in China No.1 QSR No.1 CDR 2 3 4 Leading Brand Portfolio World-Class Infrastructure No.1 Digital & Delivery 2bn+ Customer visits 7500+ stores in 1100+ cities 17 logistic centers 8

Same Store Sales turnaround with a positive trend Reversing a three year decline 25% 20% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4% 1% 2% 5% 0% -5% -10% -4% -5% -4% -15% -13% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 System sales growth 1 SSSG 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 9

Agenda 2016 Highlights Company Overview Brand Performance Financial Results Summary & Outlook Q&A 10

KFC 2016 Highlights 323 new stores, 720 remodels SSSG at 3%, system sales 1 +6% Restaurant margin reached 16.3% Reported operating profit at $645mn 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 11

Four Key Pillars to Drive Continued Growth 1 2 3 4 Focus on Core Menu & Value Digital & Delivery Multiple Business Models Customer Service & People 12

KFC Delivered +3% SSSG in 2016 SSSG trend System sales growth 1 10% 5% 4% 3% 20% 15% 15% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -15% -4% -4% 10% 5% 0% -5% -1% 0% 6% -25% -10% -9% -30% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-15% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 13

Successful Marketing Campaigns Seasonal Promotions On Line Events Top Celebrity Endorsers Bold Innovations 14

Significant Investment in Assets to Improve Store Image # of units built or remodelled 1043 Fujian Guangzhou 864 659 629 803 Shenzhen Nanchang 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New store Remodel 15

Industry Leading Digital Innovation Mobile payment tripled in 2016 Mobile payment as % of company sales WOW membership 60mn+ members 12% Jan 35% Dec Super APP 20mn+ downloads Mobile Payment 5,000+ stores Virtual stores 5,000+ stores Pre/Self-order 5,000+ stores Digital Menu Board 4,000+ stores KFC Online T-Mall Store ecommerce sales 100mn+ 16

Delivery: Maximizing Own and Aggregator Platforms Consumers KFC Platform KFC stores KFC rider Delivery as % of KFC company sales Aggregators 9.9% KFC has its own delivery website and apps In addition we list with aggregators We deliver all orders and charge for delivery All customer data belongs to us 7.2% 4Q15 4Q16 17

Pizza Hut Casual Dining 2016 Highlights 178 new stores, 69 remodels SSSG at -7%, system sales 1 +3% Restaurant margin at 14.0% Reported operating profit at $150mn 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 18

While New Unit Builds continued, SSSG declined New Unit Builds SSSG trend 350 300 250 200 150 211 247 271 280 178 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 10% 4% 100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2% -4% -6% -8% -5% -5% -7% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 19

Five Key Steps to Restore Sales Growth 1 2 3 4 5 Focus on Core Menu Simplification Brand Integration Sustainable Development Digital Acceleration 20

We Have Continued to Invest in Asset Upgrades # of units built and remodeled 334 339 245 288 247 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 New store Remodel 21

Digital & Delivery The Growth Driver No.1 Pizza Delivery in China Delivery sales ($mn) Mobile payment grew 5x in 2016 Mobile payment as % of sales 110 75 26% 5% Jan Dec 4Q15 PHHS 4Q16 PHCD 20+ mn members New Digital Experience 22

Successful Launch of 1st Taco Bell Store Soft open in December 2016 in Shanghai, initial response encouraging Prominent Location Shanghai, near Pearl Tower Great Food Best of US with Local Insights Top Rating on Dianping 9.0 rating on Dianping 23

Yum China is a responsible partner in communities across China Kid s Book Club One Yuan Donation Little Migratory Bird 14mn children s books given away in 2016 Rmb150mn donated for children in poverty since 2008 Rmb3.5mn was raised for Left-behind kids in 2016 24

Agenda 2016 Highlights Company Overview Brand Performance Financial Results Summary & Outlook Q&A 25

Yum China Exceeded 2016 Financial Targets Adjusted EBITDA $1.13bn +13% YoY, or +19% YoY ex FX Target: $1.1bn OP before special items $655mn +30% YoY, or +37% YoY ex FX Target: at least $600mn Restaurant margin 15.3% +2.7% ppts YoY Target: at least 14% Opened 575 new restaurants on a gross basis Note: Adjusted EBITDA and Operating profit before special items are non-gaap financial measures. See the appendix for a reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent 26

KFC Restaurant Margin and Operating Profit Restaurant margin 20% 15% 10% 9.5% 11.7% 13.3% 16.3% 5% 4Q15 4Q16 2015 2016 US$mn Reported operating profit 800 600 499 645 +29% YoY, +36% YoY ex FX 400 2015 2016 27

Pizza Hut Casual Dining Restaurant Margin and Operating Profit Restaurant margin 15% 10% 10.4% 12.3% 14.0% 5% 5.6% 4Q15 4Q16 2015 2016 US$mn Reported operating profit 150 145 150 +4% YoY, +11% YoY ex FX 100 2015 2016 28

Retail Tax Structure Reform Contributed Significantly to 2016 Results Reform implemented on May 1 for our industry Benefit impacts P&L, capital spending & balance sheet Impact has fluctuated and exceeded expectation Reinvested portion of benefit to strengthen brand positions 29

Other Factors that Impacted 2016 Financial Results Currency translation Inflation G&A Negative 5%, or $36mn impact on operating profit Wage +8% Food was flat, increased in Q4 +13% ex FX, due to higher incentive comp costs & public company expense 30

Strong Cash Flow Generation, Returning Value to Shareholders Net cash from operating activities Free cash flow 1 Ending cash & short term investment $864mn $428mn $964mn Board approved $300mn share repurchase program 1 Net cash from operating activities of $864mn less capital spending of $436mn. 31

Agenda 2016 Highlights Company Overview Brand Performance Financial Results Summary & Outlook Q&A 32

Summary: Yum China Company Snapshot No.1 restaurant operator in China with strong portfolio National penetration with 7,500+ restaurants in 1,100+ Cities with 420,000 employees Deep knowledge of Chinese consumers gained from 30-years operation in China World-class supply chain management Growth Strategy New unit builds by geographic expansion Same-store-sales growth Margin expansion through operating leverage and active cost management Digital & delivery engagement for better customer experience Future opportunity from Taco Bell Drive Shareholder Return 33

2017 Outlook Tailwind Steady growth in economy and disposable income, restaurant industry revenue may grow at high single digit VAT benefit will continue to help margin expansion Digital CRM programs to improve customer penetration and service; robust demand growth in online delivery segment Headwind Rising geopolitical uncertainties RMB depreciation Food inflation (low single digit), labor inflation (high single digit) Increasing competition supported by online aggregator platform Challenges to turnaround Pizza Hut Yum China 2017 targets (ex FX) In 2017 we plan to drive strong earnings growth and shareholder return. Expect to add 550 600 new stores, Expect capex US$400-500mn in 2017 Expect robust growth from Digital & Delivery to drive system sales & SSSG Expect operating profit to grow at double digit with margin expansion, ex FX Expect strong free cash flow, enhanced balance sheet position 34

Agenda 2016 Highlights Company Overview Brand Performance Financial Results Summary & Outlook Q&A 35

Appendix: Reconciliation of Reported Results to Non-GAAP Measures (1) ($mn except per share data) Quarter ended Year ended 12/31/16 12/31/15 12/31/16 12/31/15 Detail of Special Items Reversal of (provision for) losses associated with sales of aircraft (b) (15) 2 (15) Incremental restaurant-level impairment upon spin-off (c) (17) (17) Special Items Expense - Operating Profit (17) (15) (15) (15) Changes in fair value of financial instruments (d) 21 21 Tax benefit on Special Items (e) 17 4 16 4 Special items income (expense), net of tax including noncontrolling interests 21 (11) 22 (11) Special items income (expense), net of tax noncontrolling interests (f) (8) Special Items Income (Expense), net of tax Yum China Holdings, Inc. 21 (11) 30 (11) Weighted average diluted shares outstanding 379,915,075 363,758,219 369,143,838 363,758,219 Special Items Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share 0.06 (0.03) 0.08 (0.03) Reconciliation of Reported Operating Profit to Operating Profit Before Special Items Reported Operating Profit 58 5 640 488 Special Items Expense - Operating Profit (17) (15) (15) (15) Operating Profit before Special Items 75 20 655 503 Reconciliation of Reported EPS to EPS Before Special Items Reported Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share $ 0.23 $ (0.08) $ 1.36 $ 0.89 Special Items Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share 0.06 (0.03) 0.08 (0.03) Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share before Special Items $ 0.17 $ (0.05) $ 1.28 $ 0.92 Reconciliation of Reported Effective Tax Rate to Effective Tax Rate Before Special Items Reported effective tax rate (8.4)% 437.4 % 23.5 % 33.9 % Impact on tax rate as a result of Special Items (20.6)% 257.1 % (2.7)% 0.2 % Effective tax rate before Special Items 12.2 % 180.3 % 26.2 % 33.7 % 36

Appendix: Reconciliation of Reported Results to Non-GAAP Measures (2) ($mn) Reconciliation of Reported Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted EBITDA Quarter ended Year ended 12/31/16 12/31/15 12/31/16 12/31/15 Net Income (Loss) Yum China Holdings, Inc. $ 88 $ (29) $ 502 $ 323 Net income noncontrolling interests 2 12 5 Income tax (benefit) provision (7) 38 158 168 Interest income, net (4) (4) (11) (8) Change in fair value of financial instruments (21) (21) Reported Operating Profit 58 5 640 488 Depreciation and amortization 130 140 402 425 Store impairment charges 27 43 70 70 Special Items Expense Operating Profit 17 15 15 15 Adjusted EBITDA $ 232 $ 203 $ 1,127 $ 998 37