Report created on August 29, 2017 Economic Overview Western New Contact: Lisa.Montiel@suny.edu
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE... 3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS... 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... 5 WAGE TRENDS... 6 COST OF LIVING INDEX... 6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT... 7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT... 9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS... 11 EDUCATION LEVELS... 11 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT... 12 REGION DEFINITION... 13 FAQ... 14 2
Demographic Profile In 2016, the population in the Western New was 1,387,062. Between 2006 and 2016, the region s population declined at an annual average rate of 0.2%. The region has a civilian labor force of 706,231 with a participation rate of 62.0%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the Western New, 30.5% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 31.3% in the nation. The median household income in the Western New is $49,456 and the median house value is $117,280. Summary 1 Percent Value Western New New USA Western New New USA Demographics Population 6 1,387,062 19,745,289 323,127,513 Population Annual Average Growth 6-0.2% 0.3% 0.8% -2,099 64,066 2,474,760 Median Age 2,4 40.6 38.0 37.2 Under 18 Years 4 21.7% 22.3% 24.0% 304,257 4,324,929 74,181,467 18 to 24 Years 4 10.6% 10.2% 9.9% 147,964 1,983,517 30,672,088 25 to 34 Years 4 11.4% 13.7% 13.3% 159,166 2,659,337 41,063,948 35 to 44 Years 4 12.1% 13.5% 13.3% 169,419 2,610,017 41,070,606 45 to 54 Years 4 15.5% 14.9% 14.6% 217,036 2,878,691 45,006,716 55 to 64 Years 4 12.9% 11.9% 11.8% 180,840 2,303,668 36,482,729 65 to 74 Years 4 7.8% 7.0% 7.0% 108,512 1,360,602 21,713,429 75 Years, and Over 4 8.0% 6.5% 6.0% 112,483 1,257,341 18,554,555 Race: White 4 83.8% 65.7% 72.4% 1,173,516 12,740,974 223,553,265 Race: Black or African American 4 10.3% 15.9% 12.6% 143,527 3,073,800 38,929,319 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 4 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 11,438 106,906 2,932,248 Race: Asian 4 1.9% 7.3% 4.8% 27,280 1,420,244 14,674,252 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 341 8,766 540,013 Race: Some Other Race 4 1.3% 7.4% 6.2% 17,715 1,441,563 19,107,368 Race: Two or More Races 4 1.8% 3.0% 2.9% 25,860 585,849 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4 4.0% 17.6% 16.3% 56,681 3,416,922 50,477,594 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 62.0% 63.3% 63.3% 706,231 10,083,719 158,897,824 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 718 23,559 1,015,464 Veterans, Age 18-64 5.3% 3.0% 5.5% 46,293 382,054 10,750,884 Median Household Income 2 $49,456 $59,269 $53,889 Per Capita Income $27,362 $33,236 $28,930 Poverty Level (of all people) 15.4% 15.7% 15.5% 208,664 3,005,943 47,749,043 Households Receiving Food Stamps 16.3% 15.4% 13.2% 93,388 1,120,886 15,399,651 Mean Commute Time (minutes) 20.9 32.3 25.9 3
Summary 1 Percent Value Western New New USA Western New New USA Commute via Public Transportation 2.8% 27.8% 5.1% 17,610 2,521,039 7,362,038 Union Membership 3 23.7% 23.5% 10.7% Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 7.7% 12.3% 11.8% 55,899 1,306,879 19,736,243 High School Graduate 28.5% 24.9% 26.4% 207,597 2,641,113 43,982,863 Some College, No Degree 19.8% 16.8% 21.7% 144,385 1,787,450 36,187,232 Associate's Degree 13.5% 9.4% 8.8% 98,490 998,201 14,742,654 Bachelor's Degree 17.4% 21.3% 19.9% 126,615 2,264,242 33,245,950 Postgraduate Degree 13.1% 15.2% 11.4% 95,679 1,617,475 18,952,103 Housing Housing Units 653,751 8,171,725 133,351,840 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $117,280 $283,400 $178,600 Homeowner Vacancy 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 6,597 70,718 1,492,691 Rental Vacancy 6.4% 4.3% 6.4% 13,066 153,504 2,949,366 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 33.0% 46.4% 36.1% 189,719 3,367,557 42,214,214 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 12.7% 29.4% 9.1% 72,888 2,132,048 10,628,474 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 17,340 269,018 4,451,334 Disconnected Youth 5 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2,604 32,468 518,859 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 38.1% 35.6% 34.8% 106,364 1,444,567 24,408,909 With a Disability, Age 18-64 11.2% 8.6% 10.3% 96,953 1,075,396 19,985,588 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 37.9% 38.9% 41.0% 36,712 418,455 8,185,456 Foreign Born 5.4% 22.5% 13.2% 75,230 4,422,741 41,717,420 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 2.9% 13.5% 8.6% 38,485 2,491,216 25,410,756 Source: JobsEQ 1. ACS 2011-2015, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2016; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Census 2010 5. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 6. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since 2006 4
Employment Trends As of 2017Q1, total employment for the Western New was 661,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q1, employment increased 0.2% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q1. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Western New was 5.3% as of June 2017. The regional unemployment rate was higher than the national rate of 4.3%. One year earlier, in June 2016, the unemployment rate in the Western New was 5.1%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through June 2017. 5
Wage Trends The average worker in the Western New earned annual wages of $45,541 as of 2017Q1. Average annual wages per worker increased 3.9% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $53,246 in the nation as of 2017Q1. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q1. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 5.6% lower in Western New than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Western New $45,541 94.4 $48,262 New $66,332 136.3 $48,671 USA $53,246 100.0 $53,246 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q1 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q1, imputed by Chmura where necessary. 6
Industry Snapshot The largest sector in the Western New is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 103,794 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (77,403 workers) and Manufacturing (66,992). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Management of Companies and Enterprises (LQ = 1.46), Manufacturing (1.23), and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (1.19). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q1. Sectors in the Western New with the highest average wages per worker are Utilities ($94,349), Management of Companies and Enterprises ($85,996), and Finance and Insurance ($68,006). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Accommodation and Food Services (+5,547 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (+4,274), and Finance and Insurance (+2,169). Over the next 10 years, employment in the Western New is projected to contract by 3,199 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +1.1% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+11,889 jobs), Construction (+1,493), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+1,454). 7
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q1 Change over the Last 5 Years Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q1-2017q1 Over the Next 10 Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Western New New USA Approx Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 21 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 4,945 $30,043 0.52 316 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 1,613-698 -1.5% 454 $58,537 0.17-231 -7.9% -1.3% -4.5% 107-15 -0.3% 22 Utilities 2,558 $94,349 0.72-154 -1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 608-349 -1.5% 23 Construction 26,478 $52,434 0.73 1,088 0.8% 3.1% 3.1% 5,304 1,493 0.5% 31 Manufacturing 66,992 $61,906 1.23-1,159-0.3% -0.6% 0.9% 14,532-8,668-1.4% 42 Wholesale Trade 22,200 $61,239 0.86-244 -0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 4,837-352 -0.2% 44 Retail Trade 77,403 $26,858 1.08 903 0.2% 0.8% 1.4% 23,523-2,272-0.3% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 23,463 $45,596 0.85 594 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 5,911-1,431-0.6% 51 Information 8,751 $54,084 0.66-846 -1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 1,978-1,063-1.3% 52 Finance and Insurance 29,371 $68,006 1.12 2,169 1.5% 0.3% 1.1% 6,842-444 -0.2% 53 54 55 56 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 9,485 $46,892 0.85 307 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% 2,095-88 -0.1% 31,023 $61,929 0.71-247 -0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 6,509 1,454 0.5% 14,181 $85,996 1.46 1,666 2.5% 1.3% 3.0% 2,976-187 -0.1% 34,052 $34,159 0.79-2,798-1.6% 2.2% 2.7% 7,697 995 0.3% 61 Educational Services 64,254 $48,818 1.17-589 -0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 13,322-445 -0.1% 62 71 72 81 Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 103,794 $46,294 1.10 4,274 0.8% 1.9% 2.5% 20,856 11,889 1.1% 15,541 $44,245 1.19 2,086 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 4,710 49 0.0% 60,691 $18,706 1.03 5,547 1.9% 3.2% 3.0% 21,021-650 -0.1% 28,811 $25,671 0.98 888 0.6% 1.4% -0.1% 7,137-432 -0.2% 92 Public Administration 34,823 $58,022 1.10 223 0.1% -0.6% 0.0% 8,165-1,983-0.6% 99 Unclassified 2,556 $25,611 1.91 1,956 33.6% 20.0% 13.0% 619-4 0.0% - All Industries 661,825 $45,541 1.00 15,748 0.5% 1.5% 1.7% 159,867-3,199 0.0% Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8
Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in the Western New is Office and Administrative Support, employing 103,917 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related (69,709 workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related (62,161). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Community and Social Service (LQ = 1.23), Education, Training, and Library (1.22), and Protective Service (1.20). Occupation groups in the Western New with the highest average wages per worker are Management ($108,400), Legal ($83,500), and Architecture and Engineering ($75,000). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.3% among Healthcare Practitioners and Technical to 10.9% among Construction and Extraction. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Western New is expected to be Healthcare Support with a +1.5% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (+3,479 jobs) and Healthcare Support (+3,227). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Food Preparation and Serving Related (23,448 jobs) and Office and Administrative Support (22,331). Occupation Snapshot in Western New Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q1 2017q1 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q1-2017q1 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Western New New USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11- Management 13-15- 17-19- 21-23- 25- Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 33,886 $108,400 0.84 782 2.3% 931 0.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1,636 10,428-419 -0.1% 28,141 $67,800 0.83 1,055 3.7% 542 0.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1,319 6,494 418 0.1% 13,927 $72,100 0.72 517 3.6% -36-0.1% 2.2% 2.6% 1,259 2,097 712 0.5% 9,542 $75,000 0.85 285 2.9% -16 0.0% 1.3% 1.1% 450 2,435-435 -0.5% 5,097 $62,700 0.92 134 2.6% 198 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 299 1,554-12 0.0% 12,993 $43,000 1.23 206 1.6% 801 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 597 2,809 536 0.4% Legal 5,586 $83,500 1.02 100 1.8% 0 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 101 1,089 52 0.1% Education, Training, and Library 45,890 $52,200 1.22 958 2.1% -124-0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 820 9,751 306 0.1% 27- Arts, Design, 9,238 $48,200 0.78 345 3.6% 117 0.3% 1.0% 1.3% 273 3,133-362 -0.4% 9
Occupation Snapshot in Western New Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q1 2017q1 Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q1-2017q1 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Western New New USA Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Entertainment, Sports, and Media 29-31- 33-35- 37-39- 41-43- 45-47- 49- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 51- Production 53-00- Transportation and Material Moving 40,042 $74,300 1.07 522 1.3% 897 0.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1,509 8,773 3,479 0.8% 19,823 $31,200 1.06 1,194 5.8% 514 0.5% 2.8% 2.2% 455 4,338 3,227 1.5% 17,095 $44,900 1.20 828 4.7% 1,227 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 209 3,886-448 -0.3% 62,161 $24,100 1.10 5,771 8.7% 4,803 1.6% 3.1% 2.9% 1,490 23,448-420 -0.1% 21,859 $28,300 0.94 2,269 9.6% 831 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 607 4,793-35 0.0% 28,397 $26,500 1.11 1,526 5.2% 1,925 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 591 7,290 2,267 0.8% 69,709 $37,700 1.02 3,944 5.5% 714 0.2% 0.9% 1.4% 3,313 22,225-1,761-0.3% 103,917 $36,100 1.06 6,622 6.1% 1,440 0.3% 1.2% 1.7% 2,619 22,331-4,932-0.5% 2,010 $29,100 0.46 248 10.5% 182 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% 37 860-282 -1.5% 24,733 $49,300 0.84 2,970 10.9% 552 0.5% 2.5% 2.3% 558 4,731 992 0.4% 23,774 $44,800 0.94 1,098 4.5% 485 0.4% 1.3% 1.6% 892 5,797-212 -0.1% 45,108 $38,600 1.12 3,345 7.1% -764-0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 1,049 11,691-4,887-1.1% 38,897 $34,800 0.88 3,442 8.3% 527 0.3% 1.5% 2.2% 1,221 9,767-982 -0.3% - All 661,825 $46,200 1.00 n/a n/a 15,748 0.5% 1.5% 1.7% 21,304 169,720-3,199 0.0% Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q1 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2016Q3, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q1. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 10
Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Western New with the highest relative concentration is Pharmaceutical with a location quotient of 1.64. This cluster employs 2,042 workers in the region with an average wage of $67,943. Employment in the Pharmaceutical cluster is projected to contract in the region about 0.6% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2016Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the Western New is projected to contract 0.0% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 0.6% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 0.1% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 0.4% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q1. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP in the Western New expanded 4.3%. This follows growth of 3.2% in 2015. As of 2016, total GDP in the Western New was $65,338,258,000. Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. Of the sectors in the Western New, Manufacturing contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2016, $10,253,296,000 The next-largest contributions came from Health Care and Social Assistance ($7,038,421,000); Finance and Insurance ($6,824,953,000); and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing ($5,565,502,000). Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2016. 12
Region Definition Western New is defined as the following counties: Allegany County, New ; Cattaraugus County, New ; Chautauqua County, New ; Erie County, New ; Niagara County, New 13
FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 14