MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT BANK OF ALBANIA MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT APRIL 2006 Bank of Albania 1
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT 1 MAIN DEVELOPMENTS Consumer goods prices increased by 0.57 per cent over April 2006, reaching an annual inflation rate of 2.4 per cent. Average annual inflation reached to 2.2 per cent. The increase of annual inflation is mainly attributed to the rise of foodstuffs prices. The increase of imported inflation and several structural changes which temporarily decreased some goods supply, had a major influence mainly in the rise of fruit and vegetables prices. Risk factors of supply on overall inflation were balanced by the favourable monetary conditions and the prudent fiscal policy, influencing on the control of inflationary pressures. The main tendency observed in the monetary developments over the first quarter of 2006 was the slowdown of monetary aggregates growth. The slowdown of broad money growth rates was mainly affected by the low Government borrowing over this period. Credit grew by ALL 12 billion over the first quarter 2006, reaching to the level of 22.3 per cent of M3 aggregate at the end of this period. The rise of credit portfolio is the main contributor to the growth of money supply. However, its annual growth rate recorded a downward trend, declining in March to the level of 68 per cent. Money market continues to be characterized by an excess liquidity in the banking system, due to the low Government demand for funds. Interbank market and credit market in Lek have maintained the interest rates stable, while the interest of Lek deposits and the Treasury bills yield have displayed downward pressures. The exchange rate has been relatively stable over the past months, with slight appreciating pressures. In annual terms, Lek behaviour continues to display the same tendency as in the previous months, that is depreciation against the US dollar and appreciation against the euro. In nominal effective terms, since the beginning of 2006 the Lek has appreciated by 1.3 per cent. 2 PERFORMANCE OF INFLATION IN APRIL 2006 Annual inflation returned within the targeted interval over April, after fluctuating below the low limit of tolerance zone over the first quarter of 2006. The annual growth of consumer prices marked 2.4 per cent over this month, increasing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the level recorded in March. Monthly inflation marked 0.57 per cent, mainly determined by the contribution by 0.56 percentage points of Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages. Average annual inflation rate over the 2 Bank of Albania
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT first four months of the year was 2.0 per cent or 0.4 percentage points lower than the average rate over the same period the previous year. 6% Chart 1 Annual inflation (in percentage) The increase of annual inflation in April is mainly attributed to the rise of foodstuffs prices. The increase of imported inflation influence, the unfavourable weather conditions and the improvement of customs administration temporarily decreased some goods supply, by influencing on the rise of prices in fruit, vegetables and sweets subgroup. The rise of prices in these subgroups contributed by 1.2 percentage points to annual inflation for April. 4% 2% -2% March 03 May 03 July 03 September 03 November 03 January 04 March 04 May 04 July 04 September 04 Annual inflation Lower limit 2% Upper limit 4% Moving average (annual) November 04 January 05 March 05 May 05 July 05 September 05 November 05 January 06 March 06 2.1 PERFORMANCE OF INFLATION BY CONSTITUENT GROUPS The upward annual inflation over April 2006 was determined by slightly different developments from the same month the previous year. Foodstuffs inflation increased compared to the previous year, while the price of energy marked a slowdown in the growing rates. The prices of Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic -1% beverages group increased by 2.5 per cent -2% compared to the previous year, and 1.3 per cent compared to March 2006. Prices performance within this group displays a different trend compared to the same month the previous Transportation Annual inflation year. Foodstuffs prices over March- were under the influence of several factors: bad weather conditions led to problems in agricultural supply; Government efforts to fight the informal economy (mainly in customs and taxes) temporarily decreased the supply of different goods. While the Lek appreciation against the Euro over the last two months influenced on the increase in the inflation pass-through of foodstuffs of Greece and Italy. 4% 3% 2% 1% April-03 Chart 2 Contribution of main groups to annual inflation (in percentage points) June-03 August-03 October-03 December-03 February-04 April-04 June-04 August -04 October-04 December-04 February-05 April-05 June-06 August-05 Source: INSTAT October-05 December-05 February-06 Rent, water, fuels and energy Hotels, cafés, restaurants Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages April-06 Source: INSTAT Annual inflation 05 Contribution (pp) Annual inflation 06 Contribution (pp) Italy 1 Annual inflation 06 Greece 2 Annual inflation 06 February -1.2-0.5-0.3-0.1 0.9 2.0 March -1.7-0.7 0.4 0.2 1.0 2.1 April -2.2-1 2.5 1 3.8 Source: INSTAT Table 1 Inflation of Foodstuffs and nonalcoholic beverages group and its contribution to total inflation Bank of Albania 3
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT Rent, water, fuels and energy group contributed to total inflation in April by 0.84 percentage points. Starting from January 2006, the positive contribution provided by this group to total annual inflation has been decreasing. This has been due to the non-rise of energy price in January 2006, which caused the avoidance of the rising effect of energy price on inflation in January 2006. By constituent subgroups, the prices of rent and imputed rent increased with higher annual rates than in 2005. The main contribution to total inflation was provided by Imputed rent subgroup by + 0.7 percentage points. Table 2 Inflation of Rent, water, fuels and energy group and its contribution to total inflation Annual inflation 05 Contribution (pp) Annual inflation 06 Contribution (pp) February 9.8 2.4 3.5 0.9 March 9.8 2.4 3.2 0.8 April 7.2 1.8 3.2 0.8 Source: INSTAT The rise of oil prices in April affected the annual inflation rate of Transportation group, which increased by 4 per cent. After recording negative values over the first quarter of 2006, the monthly rate of rise in the prices of this group increased by 0.3 per cent in April. Service to personal vehicles subgroup marked an annual increase of 9.6 per cent, contributing to general annual inflation by 0.13 percentage points. The moderate increase of annual inflation in April reflected the annual rise of Health group prices by 5.7 per cent. The contribution provided by this group to total inflation over this month was 0.13 percentage points. The contribution provided by other groups did not display significant fluctuations in volume or in the influence on overall annual inflation rate. Chart 3 Annual inflation of 4 main groups in the CPI basket (in percentage points) 15 6 10 4 5 2 0-5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages 20 8 15 6 4 10 2 5 0 0-2 -5-4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Rent, water, fuels and energy 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Hotels, Cafés and Restaurants 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Transportation Source: INSTAT 2.2 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND CONSUMER PRICES The combination of demand factors has provided a favourable macroeconomic environment for keeping the consumer prices in low levels. April was characterized by low budget expenditures and lower money growth rates. On the other hand, the decrease of supply for some goods, the continuous oil price rise in foreign markets and trade partners inflation were felt in the increase of annual inflation rate over. 4 Bank of Albania
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT MONETARY POLICY Monetary developments have favoured the maintenance of a low inflationary environment. Over April was observed a slowdown in the monetary aggregates growth, low rates of currency outside banks to M3 and stable exchange rate. Despite the potential risks it presents, credit growth did not seem to generate inflationary pressures on the side of demand. 2 2 1 1 31% Chart 4 Performance of monetary conditions M3 real - 12-month moving average February 06 November 05 August 05 May 05 February 05 November 04 August 04 May 04 February 04 November 03 August 03 May 03 February 03 November 02 August 02 May 02 February 02 November 01 August 01 May 01 February 01 November 00 August 00 May 00 Ratio of CoB to /M3 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 14% lek - usd lek - euro April-06 January-06 October-05 July-05 April-05 January-05 October-04 July-04 April-04 January-04 October-03 July-03 April-03 January-03 October-02 July-02 April-02 January-02 October-01 July-01 April-01 January-01 12-month T.Bill yield 3 12% 29% 1 FISCAL POLICY Over March 2006, Government expenditures marked an annual decrease while the revenues recorded an annual increase for the third consecutive month. Expenditures have been realized 12 per cent less than projected, while the budget revenues grew by 6 per cent, causing April to record a Government surplus about 9 times higher than projected. Fiscal indicators developments over the first quarter of 2006 suggest a restraining impact on the aggregate demand and on the price rise over the first quarter. However, this tendency is projected to return over the second half of the year, when there will be an increase in budget expenditures. 28% 27% 26% 2 24% 23% January-03 April-03 July-03 October-03 January-04 April-04 July-04 October-04 January-05 April-05 July-05 October-05 January-06 April-06 8% 6% 4% 2% March-06 January-06 November-05 September-05 July-05 May-05 March-05 January-05 November-04 September-04 July-04 May-04 March-04 January-04 November-03 September-03 July-03 May-03 March-03 January-03 Chart 5 Annual growth of budget expenditures 2 1 1 - -1 EXCHANGE RATE AND IMPORTED INFLATION Lek continues to appreciate against the euro over 2006. In nominal effective terms, the Lek has appreciated by 1.3 per cent since the beginning of the year. Exchange rate performance represents a significant factor in the performance of consumer prices, since it has a direct impact on the level of prices of a large share of imported basket items. However, the exchange rate appreciating tendencies are presented smoother over the recent months, being reflected in the flattening of the appreciating course of the Lek against the other currencies. The decline of Lek appreciation against the euro over the last two months creates an upward inflationary effect, risking the reflection of rise in the prices of Italy and Greece in the Albanian consumer market in the following months. -1-2 January-03 March-03 May-03 July-03 September-03 November-03 January-04 March-04 May-04 July-04 September-04 November-04 January-05 March-05 May-05 July-05 September-05 November-05 January-06 Budget expenditures Source: Ministry of Finance December January February March April Greece 3 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Italy 4 2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Lek/Euro -3.2-2.5-3.3-2.9-2.5 Source: INSTAT, Bank of Albania Table 3 Annual inflation of partner countries and changes in the exchange rate (in percentage) Bank of Albania 5
April-06 February-06 December-05 October-05 August-05 June-05 April-05 February-05 December-04 October-04 August-04 June-04 April-04 February-04 December-03 October-03 August-03 June-03 April-03 February-03 December-02 MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT 22% 18% 14% 1 6% 2% -2% -6% -1 110 90 70 50 30 10-10 -30 2 16% 12% 8% 4% December-02 October-03 Chart 6 PPI and CPI annual changes for 2002-2004 March-03 December-03 February-04 June-03 April-04 September-03 June-04 December-03 August-04 CPI March-04 October-04 June-04 December-04 February-05 September-04 April-05 December-04 June-05 PPI March-05 August-05 June-05 October-05 September-05 Chart 7 Annual change of oil price and exchange rate (right axis) December-05 March-06 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% Source: INSTAT Oil price in international markets Oil price in the Albanian market Lek/Usd exchange rate Source: INSTAT, Bank of Albania December-05 Chart 8 M3 and M2 annual growth and currency outside banks M3 M2 CoB (right scale) February-06 April-06 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 në % 1 1 - -1-1 PRODUCTION PRICES Production prices index decreased by 0.4 per cent over the last quarter of 2005 compared to the previous quarter. Lower annual growth rates of production prices observed over last year and their upward non-reflection of consumer prices does not constitute a threat for inflationary pressures due to the rise in costs. OIL PRICES The rapid rise in oil prices, in particular over the second half of, testified for upward external pressures. The direct influence of oil price rise abroad, smoothed by the monthly appreciation of Lek against the dollar, was reflected in the increase to 8.6 per cent of Service to personal vehicles subgroup annual inflation for April. Risk factors of supply which acted on April overall inflation were balanced by the favourable monetary conditions and the prudent fiscal policy. The risk of consumer prices rise in the following months is related to the performance of oil price in the foreign markets, performance of imported inflation and the extent of its amortisation from the rate developments of the Lek against the two main trade currencies, the euro and the dollar. 3 MONETARY POLICY AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS 3.1 MONEY DEMAND AND SUPPLY Monetary developments over the first quarter of 2006 generally remained in line with the tendency observed in the second half of 2005. The main tendency observed was the slowdown of money growth, for both M3 and M2 aggregates. Money aggregates also display similar tendencies in real terms. 6 Bank of Albania
March-06 December-05 September-05 June-05 March-05 December-04 September-04 June-04 March-04 December-03 September-03 June-03 March-03 December-02 September-02 June-02 March-02 December-01 September-01 June-01 March-01 December-00 April-06 February-06 December-05 October-05 August-05 June-05 April-05 February-05 December-04 October-04 August-04 June-04 April-04 February-04 December-03 October-03 August-03 June-03 April-03 February-03 December-02 MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT The slowdown of broad money growth rates is mainly due to the low Government borrowing over this period. In the last twelve months, money demand has increasingly been dominated by credit to the private sector. However, M3 performance is ever more displaying the rapid growth effect of deposits in foreign currency. The ratio of currency outside banks to M3 has maintained the lowest historical levels. Its ratio to M3 in March was 23.7 per cent. This ratio marks a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period the previous year. The stable real interest rates of bank deposits made a positive contribution to maintaining the upward pace of deposits in Lek. 1 1 Chart 9 M3 and currency outside banks growth rates in real terms 14% 8% 2% -4% -1-16% Annual growth of real M3 Real growth rate of CoB (on the right) 54% 52% 5 48% 46% 44% 42% 4 Chart 11 Ratio of deposits in local currency to M3 and real interest rate 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 40 30 20 10 0-10 Chart 10 Government and private sector contribution to M3 growth (annual nominal rates) January-06 November-05 September-05 July-05 May-05 March-05 January-05 November-04 September-04 July-04 May-04 March-04 January-04 November-03 September-03 July-03 May-03 March-03 January-03 November-02 September-02 July-02 May-02 March-02 January-02 November-01 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Ratio of Lek deposits to M3 Real interest rate (on the right) Credit to private sector Net claims on the Government M3-annual growth in Lek (right scale) March Quarterly changes Annual changes 2006 Lek Percentage Lek Percentage Currency outside banks 137.3-12.4-8.3 7.9 6.1 Total deposits 443.1 14.7 3.4 50.9 13.0 - in Lek 284.2 7.8 2.8 19.7 7.5 - in foreign currency 158.9 7.0 4.6 31.2 24.4 M1 217.3-10.4-4.6 47.1 27.7 M2 421.5-4.7-1.1 27.6 7.0 M3 580.3 2.3 0.4 58.8 11.3 Reserve money 186.3-11.9-6.0 15.2 8.9 Table 4 Monetary aggregates (in billions of Lek) CREDIT TO ECONOMY Outstanding credit grew by Lek 12 billion over the first quarter of 2006, reaching at the end of March to Lek 134.6 billion. The stable Bank of Albania 7
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT 3 2 2 1 1 June 02 Chart 12 Ratio of credit to GDP and M3 and annual growth rate (right axis) September 02 December 02 March 03 June 03 September 03 December 03 Credit/M3 Credit/GDP March 04 June 04 September 04 December 04 March 05 June 05 September 05 December 05 March 06 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Annual growth rate growth of credit over this period is also indicated by the new credit indicator. The new disbursed credit amounted to Lek 30 billion over the same quarter or 33 per cent more than the same period the previous year. Despite the rapid growth of credit in absolute terms, its annual growth rate decreased to 68 per cent in March. This decrease yet again reflects the influence of its low base where the process of crediting in high annual growth rates started from. Following the continuous growth of credit weight in the financial assets portfolio of economy, outstanding credit reached to the level of 22.3 per cent of M3 aggregate at the end of the first quarter. Table 5 Structure of outstanding credit (as a percentage to total) 2005 2006 2002 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb March Outstanding credit (in billion lek) 50.7 69.3 79.0 95.9 106.0 121.9 124.8 128.5 134.6 Credit to households 24.5 30.6 31.0 30.8 31.4 31.6 31.5 31.7 31.9 Credit to private sector 75.5 69.4 69.0 69.2 68.6 68.4 68.5 68.3 68.1 Credit in Lek 19.6 19.5 20.1 22.9 23.7 25.5 25.4 25.7 26.0 Credit in foreign currency 80.4 80.5 79.9 77.1 76.3 74.5 74.6 74.3 74.0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 6 1-3 16 11 December 02 December 02 Chart 13 Total annual growth rate of credit March 03 June 03 March 03 September 03 December 03 June 03 Total Lek credit Lek credit to business Credit in Lek March 04 June 04 September 03 September 04 December 04 March 05 December 03 June 05 September 05 March 04 December 05 March 06 Lek credit to households June 04 Total credit 14 Credit in foreign currency Credit in Lek continues to remain the most dynamic component of credit. Annual growth rate of this kind of credit marked 117.5 per cent in March, which is about twice as high as the growth rate of credit in foreign currency. Despite the acceleration of credit in Lek, it still comprises only ¼ of credit portfolio. NET FOREIGN RESERVES Net foreign reserves of the banking system grew by USD 18 million in March. Net foreign reserves of the Bank of Albania grew by USD 32.2 million, while the commercial banks Credit in foreign currency to households Credit in foreign currency to business decreased by USD 14.1 million. Net foreign Total credit in foreign currency reserves of the Bank of Albania grew as a consequence of its intervention in the foreign exchange market and the exchange rate effect (the appreciation of euro against the dollar). Foreign liabilities (non-residents loans and 12 10 8 6 4 2 September 04 December 02 March 03 December 04 June 03 September 03 March 05 December 03 March 04 June 05 June 04 September 04 December 04 September 05 March 05 June 05 December 05 September 05 December 05 March 06 March 06 8 Bank of Albania
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT deposits) of commercial banks grew in March, leading to a negative net effect on net foreign reserves. Chart 14 NFA performance in the banking system (in billions of USD) GOVERNMENT DEMAND FOR MONEY The Government continued over March to have a positive fiscal balance. Budget surplus amounted to Lek 6.1 billion in March. This performance conditioned yet again a limited presence of the Government in the borrowing market. Domestic financing was in negative levels, Lek 0.8 billion, while Government deposits amounted to Lek 5.3 billion. Government bonds of two and three-year maturity grew by Lek 4.0 and 1.97 billion, respectively, over the first quarter, while Treasury bills portfolio recorded a decrease of Lek 1.6 billion. On the other hand, the Government injected Lek 3.45 billion in the banking system through reverse repurchase agreements. 3.2 MONEY MARKETS, INTEREST RATES AND EXCHANGE RATE MONEY MARKETS The neutral monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Albania and the excess liquidity in the banking system, created as a consequence of the low Government demand for funds, have caused and continue to maintain downward pressures in Lek markets. Although these pressures have been smoother over the last two months, the spread between deposits in Lek and in foreign currency continues to mark downward tendencies. This tendency is also motivated by the increase of interest rates in the international markets, in response to the tightening of the monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The narrowing of spread and the reduction of differences between investments in Lek and in foreign currency did not seem to have still been accompanied by a change in the behaviour of economic agents portfolio in the country. However, this remains a key issue in the performance of balances and various indicators of financial markets. 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 27.0 21.0 15.0 9.0 3.0-3.0-9.0 December 02 December 02 June 03 December 03 Commercial banks June 03 December 03 June 04 June 04 December 04 Bank of Albania December 04 June 05 December 05 Households Bank of Albania Commercial Banks Institutions 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% Chart 15 Developments in deficit financing (cumulative) (in billions of Lek) 8.2 7.24% June 05 December 05 Chart 16 Spread of 12-month deposits interests in Lek-foreign currency December-01 March-02 June-02 September-02 December-02 March 03 June-03 September-03 December-03 March-04 June-04 September-04 December-04 March 05 1.68% 1.27% June-05 September-05 2.54% 1.88% Spread of 12-month deposits interests in Lek-Usd Spread of 12-month deposits interests in Lek-Eur December-05 March-06 Bank of Albania 9
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT Chart 17 Trend of the yield in the primary market 14% 13% 12% 11% 1 9% 8% 7% 6% 4% 01.03.06 22.12.05 11.10.05 02.08.05 24.05.05 15.03.05 05.01.05 26.10.04 17.08.04 08.06.04 30.03.04 22.1.04 11.11.03 04.09.03 26.06.03 17.04.03 06.02.03 27.11.02 19.09.02 11.07.02 02.05.02 21.02.02 13.12.01 04.10.01 6-month T.Bill yield 3-month T.Bill yield 12-month T.Bill yield Interbank market was characterized by stable interest rates and a low difference between overnight and weekly interest rates. After the adoption of a new symmetric spread over the last year, interbank interest rates are moving towards the core interest rate of the Bank of Albania. Credit in Lek market is generally characterized by the stable interest rates of the previous period. However, confirming the behaviour of other market segments, this tendency has been translated into the narrowing of the spread between the interest rates of credit in Lek and in foreign currency. On the other hand, the difference between the interest rates of Lek credit and deposits, a crucial aspect of the intermediation cost of the system, remains high. In March this difference marked 8.6 per cent. 13% 11% 9% 7% 3% 1% Chart 18 Interest rates in the interbank market and the Bank of Albania monetary policy 14.04.06 02.03.06 19.01.06 08.12.05 27.10.05 15.09.05 04.08.05 23.06.05 12.05.05 30.03.05 11.02.05 28.12.04 10.11.04 29.09.04 18.08.04 7.07.04 26.05.04 13.04.04 11.03.04 10.02.04 11.01.04 03.12.03 16.10.03 04.09.03 24.07.03 12.06.03 30.04.03 18.03.03 03.02.03 23.01.03 19.12.02 4.11.02 23.9.02 12.08.02 01.07.02 20.05.02 4.04.02 18.02.02 18.12.01 Overnight interest in the interbank market Overnight deposits interest Core interest rate Weekly interest in the interbank market Overnight credit interest Treasury bills yield in the primary market reached to the lowest level in April. This tendency was also observed in the Government bonds market. In the last auctions, the 2-year Treasury bills yield was 6.5 per cent and the 3-year one was 7.5 per cent. The Treasury bill yield is moving towards the interest rates of Lek deposits, by exerting pressure for their further decrease. According to recent data, the difference between the Treasury bills yield and the (operative) interest rates of Lek deposits by the end was as follows: Table 6 Spread between Treasury bills yield and Lek deposits interests 3-month 6-month 12-month 1.0 1.02% 0.86% EXCHANGE RATE The exchange rate of Lek against the euro continued to be relatively stable over the last two months. On the other hand, the tendency of Lek appreciation against the American dollar was further intensified in May, reflecting the strengthening of the euro in the international markets. In annual terms, Lek behaviour remains the same as in the previous months: depreciation against the American dollar and appreciation against the euro. In nominal effective terms, Lek has appreciated by 1.3 10 Bank of Albania
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT per cent since the beginning of the year. Over the first week of May, the exchange rates were 96.86 Lek/dollar and 122.75 Lek/euro. Chart 19 Performance of nominal effective exchange rate of Lek (NEER) 105 100 95 90 85 02.05.06 10/6/2005 4/16/2005 11/21/2004 6/24/2004 1/26/2004 9/8/2003 4/21/2003 12/2/2002 7/15/2002 2/25/2002 10/8/2001 5/21/2001 1/1/2001 Chart 20 Annual changes of Lek average exchange rate (-/appreciation) 2 1 1 - -1-1 -2-2 December'05 December'04 December'03 December'02 December'01 December'00 December'99 Lek/Usd Lek/Eur Bank of Albania 11
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT STATISTICAL ANNEX INFLATION Table 1 Annual inflation rate (in percentage) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 January 2.2 6.5 0.0 3.3 3.3 1.4 February 1.5 7.6 1.1 4.4 1.8 1.3 March 2.9 7.5 1.3 4.0 1.6 1.5 April 3.0 6.5 2.3 3.2 1.3 2.4 May 2.5 4.6 2.8 2.6 2.0 June 4.0 3.7 2.6 2.9 2.9 July 5.6 4.2 3.0 3.1 1.8 August 4.1 5.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 September 3.5 5.3 2.8 2.0 3.1 October 1.8 5.8 2.9 2.0 3.3 November 2.8 3.7 3.4 2.2 3.0 December 3.5 1.7 3.3 2.2 2.0 Average 3.1 5.2 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.6 Source: INSTAT Table 2 Contribution of basket constituent groups to total inflation Sep- 05 Oct- 05 Nov- 05 Dec- 05 Jan- 06 Feb- 06 Mar- 06 Apr- 06 Foodstuffs and nonalcoholic beverages 0.61 0.71 0.09-0.8-0.16-0.11 0.16 1.03 Rent, water, fuels, energy 2.00 2.13 2.30 2.26 0.94 0.93 0.85 0.84 Transportation 0.29 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.1 0.14 0.13 Hotels, café and restaurants 0.12 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.20 0.22 Other 0.11 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.10 0.11 0.12 Total 3.14 3.32 2.94 2.06 1.39 1.33 1.48 2.35 Source: INSTAT, Bank of Albania MONETARY AGGREGATES Table 3 Performance of monetary indicators in March (in billions of ALL) March Quarterly change Annual change 2006 Absolute Percentage Absolute Percentage Currency outside banks 137.3-12.4-8.3 7.9 6.1 Total deposits 443.1 14.7 3.4 50.9 13.0 - in Lek 284.2 7.8 2.8 19.7 7.5 - in foreign currency 158.9 7.0 4.6 31.2 24.4 Demand deposits 130.6 1.1 0.9 42.6 48.4 - in Lek 80.1 2.1 2.7 39.2 96.0 - in foreign currency 50.5-0.9-1.8 3.4 7.1 Time deposits 312.5 13.6 4.6 8.3 2.7 - in Lek 204.2 5.7 2.9-19.5-8.7 - in foreign currency 108.3 7.9 7.9 27.8 34.6 M1 217.3-10.4-4.6 47.1 27.7 M2 421.5-4.7-1.1 27.6 7.0 M3 580.3 2.3 0.4 58.8 11.3 Monetary base 186.3-11.9-6.0 15.2 8.9 12 Bank of Albania
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT March 2006 Monthly change Annual change Net foreign assets 2102.4 18.1 91.4 Foreign assets Bank of Albania 1471.4 30.8 117.5 ODC 904.5 12.9-18.7 Foreign liabilities Bank of Albania 104.1 0.3-9.2 ODC 177.3 27.1 24.4 Table 4 Performance of NFA indicators by main groups, March 2006 (in millions of USD) In absolute value Monthly change Annual change Net claims on the Government 275.4-3.9-2.8 Bank of Albania 53.7-1.9-3.4 ODC 221.8-1.9 0.6 Deposits with the Bank of Albania 5.3-0.7 2.5 Budget deficit 6.1 2.4 7.9 Table 5 Performance of NCG indicators by main groups 2003 2004 Q-1 05 Q-2 05 Q-3 05 Q-4 05 Q1-06 Outstanding credit (in billions of Lek) 50.7 69.3 79.0 95.9 106.0 121.9 134.6 Short-term credit 46.0 34.0 34.1 33.7 31.6 32.8 31.9 Mid-term credit 33.3 36.0 34.5 33.1 31.2 30.3 30.3 Long-term credit 20.7 30.0 31.4 33.1 36.9 37.0 37.8 Credit to households 24.5 30.6 31.0 30.8 31.4 31.6 31.9 Credit to private sector 75.5 69.4 69.0 69.2 68.6 68.4 68.1 Lek 19.6 19.5 20.1 22.9 23.7 25.5 26.0 Foreign currency 80.4 80.5 79.9 77.1 76.3 74.5 74.0 Table 6 Outstanding credit indicators as a percentage to total 2002 2003 2004 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1-06 Agriculture, Hunting and Silviculture 0.8 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.4 2.71 2.17 Processing industry 17 17 17.1 16.7 15.6 13.9 16.8 14.22 Construction 8.6 10 9.8 11.2 11.2 12.8 13.78 13.02 Trade, Repairing of Vehicles and Household Equipment 0.4 34 23.3 20.6 19.1 20.0 15.9 18.99 Hotels and Restaurants 6 6 8.3 5.2 4.7 4.4 13.02 4.78 Real Estate 9.1 13 9.8 14.7 13.5 13.9 23.1 14.56 Other 18.1 19 30.2 30.1 34.3 32.6 33.2 32.27 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Table 7 Credit performance for the main branches of economy 2005 Q1 September Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 06 New credit (in billions of Lek) 5.7 99.7 22.1 32.8 32.1 32.9 29.4 Short-term credit 58.78 62.54 53.2 47 47.4 48.7 44.2 Mid-term credit 22.56 22.53 22.4 31 30.3 25.6 30.1 Long-term credit 18.66 14.93 24.4 22 22.2 25.7 25.7 Lek 38.79 32.59 30.1 32.8 30.2 31.4 27.7 Foreign currency 61.21 67.41 70 67.2 69.8 68.6 72.3 Table 8 New credit indicators in percentage to total Bank of Albania 13
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT FINANCIAL MARKETS Table 9 Interest rates at the end of and their change compared to previous periods (in percentage points) Interest rates Change April March 2006 Change April 2005 Core interest rate 5.0 0.00 0.00 Interbank market Overnight interest 4.68% -0.09 +2.15 Weekly interest 5.18% -0.02-0.12 Primary market 3-month Treasury bills yield 4.87% -0.35-0.24 6-month Treasury bills yield 5.57% -0.29-0.95 12-month Treasury bills yield 5.83% -0.28-1.11 Bonds market 2-year bonds yield 6. -0.48-1.20 and commercial banks Table 10 Interest rates and their change in Lek deposits and credit market (in percentage points) Interest rates March 2006 Change March-February 2006 Change March 06 March 05 Core interest rate 5.0 0.00 0.00 Lek deposits interests 3-month 3.96% -0.32-0.20 6-month 4.8 +0.09-0.05 12-month 5.28% -0.06-0.16 24-month 5.97% -0.40-0.82 Lek credit interests Up to 6-month credit 13.53% +0.52-0.47 6 month 1 year credit 13.86% +0.34 +1.44 1-3 years credit 17.26% +-0.77-1.29 Over 3-year credit 12.53% +0.18 +0.15 and commercial banks Table 11 Interest rates of foreign currency deposits and their change (in percentage points) Interest rates March 2006 Change March-February 2006 Change March 06 March 05 Fed core interest rate 4.7 0.00 +2.00 USD deposits interests 1-month 2.4-0.02 +0.70 3-month 2.82% -0.05 +0.87 6-month 3.13% +0.07 +1.03 12-month 3.4 +0.05 +0.91 24-month 4.32% +0.39 +1.30 ECB core interest rate 2.5 +0.25 +0.50 EUR deposits interests 1-month 1.9 +0.11 +0.28 3-month 2.33% +0.09 +0.58 3-month 2.39% +0.08 +0.57 12-month 2.74% +0.06 +0.84 24-month 3.22% +0.38 +0.16 and commercial banks 14 Bank of Albania
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT NOTES 1 Source: ISTAT; webpage http://www.istat.it 2 Source: General Secretariat of National Statistical Service of Greece; webpage: http://www.statistics.gr 3 Source: General Secretariat of National Statistical Service of Greece; webpage: http://www.statistics.gr 4 Source: ISTAT; webpage http://www.istat.it Bank of Albania 15
MONETARY POLICY MONTHLY REPORT Botuar nga: Banka e Shqipërisë, Sheshi Skënderbej, Nr.1, Tiranë. Tel : 355-4-222230; 235568; 235569; Faks : 355-4-223558 www.bankofalbania.org E-mail: public@bankofalbania.org Shtypur në Shtypshkronjën e Bankës së Shqipërisë. Tirazhi : 320 kopje 16 Bank of Albania