BDT : 980.00 Tk. 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 31-Jan-07 3-Mar-07 BRAC Bank Adjusted Price-Volume Graph Volume Price 3-Apr-07 3-May-07 3-Jun-07 3-Jul-07 3-Aug-07 Farzana Hoque farzana@lbsbd.com LankaBangla Securities Ltd DSE Annex building (1st Floor) 9/E, Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000 Bangladesh. Tel: 880 29561868, 880 27174256 880 27174315, 880 29570496 Fax: 880 29555384 Email: lbsldhk@accesstel.net John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd Company No. PV 89 130, Glennie Street, Col. 2 Sri Lanka. Tel: 941 244 6694/5, 941 234 2066/7, Fax: 941 2342 068 Email: jkstock@keells.com June 2008 3-Sep-07 3-Oct-07 3-Nov-07 3-Dec-07 3-Jan-08 3-Feb-08 3-Mar-08 Volume 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 BRAC Bank Share Price BDT 980.00 Issued Share Capital Ordinary Shares (mn) Free Float 12 mth High/Low (BDT.) Market Capitalization BDT mn Average Daily Volume (Shares) 15.84 50% 1,387 / 567 15,523 97,838 Price Performance 1 mth 6 mth 12 mth DSI -5.1% 0.2% 42.2% BRAC Bank -0.9% -21.1% 56.8% 3-Apr-08 3-May-08 3-Jun-08 0 Bangladesh Equities Corporate Update BRAC BANK LTD (BRACBANK) Financial Year Net Income (BDT'mn) PAT (BDT 'mn) EPS (BDT) EPS (Growth) PER(x) P/BV 2005 1,173 193 12 94.63% 80.6 19.8 2006 2,077 334 20 66.47% 48.4 7.3 2007 3,546 618 38 87.03% 25.9 5.1 2008E 5,466 977 60 59.71% 16.2 2.9 2009E 8,498 1,705 106 75.98% 9.2 2.0 2010E 13,081 2,788 175 64.23% 5.6 1.3 BRAC Bank Limited started its commercial banking operations in July 2001, and has become one the fastest growing banks in the country primarily focused on lending to the largely untapped small and medium enterprise segment. Having acquired a substantial market share of SME loan disbursement by private commercial banks, the bank is at present the market leader in the SME segment. The bank registered a strong loan growth of 66% for FY07, driving interest income by 64%. BRAC Bank is expected to record loan growth of 60% in FY 08 and 55% in FY 09 while deposit growth is expected to remain stable at 50 % in FY08 and in FY09 assisted by an additional 15 20 branches being opened each year. The bank s deposit mix is weighted toward term deposits, accounting for 74% of deposits while current deposits and savings deposits account for 15% and 10% of total deposit respectively and it is assumed that the deposit composition will remain intact over the next three years. Net Interest Margins have increased from 5.77% in 2006 to 6.16% in 2007 and is expected to continue to increase moderately over the next three years as the bank continues to focus it asset exposures on higher yielding SME and retail segment. The bank s cost to income ratio was high at 64% for 2007 and is expected to decline to approximately 63% and 57% over the next two years on scale benefits. Non-interest income accounted for 42% of total operating income last year and has grown at a CAGR of 69.45% over the last five years. It is expected to increase further from growth in the same revenue streams over the next two years. BRAC bank s Gross Non Performing Loan (NPL) stood at 4.5% in 2007 up from 3.04% in 2006. Relatively high gross NPLs in the SME Sector increased the overall gross NPL of the bank over the past years. We expect NPL s to expand marginally to 4.7% for the next two years. The bank exhibits prospects of strong loan growth in a largely untapped market segment with considerable operational support from its parent BRAC. An expected earnings growth of 59.7% and 76% in FY08 and FY09 corresponds to a PER of 16.2x and 9.21x respectively at a current market price of BDT 980. The counter trades at a 2.7% premium to the sector and at 14.8% discount to the market An LBSL / JKSB Research Publication Page 1of 5
Shareholders % BRAC 31.74 IFC 9.50 ShoreCap 8.75 Individual Sponsors 0.01 Free Float 50.00 PROFILE BRAC Bank Limited started its commercial banking operations in July 2001 pursuing the largely unexplored Small and Medium Enterprise Business Segment in Bangladesh. The bank is promoted by the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC), a leading Non-Government Organization (NGO) in the country engaged in poverty alleviation and empowerment of poor, especially women, in the rural areas. The bank has become one of the fastest growing banks with a network 36 branches, and 392 SME Unit Offices as at December 2007. BRAC Bank started its operations through the acquisition of a portion of credit activities of BRAC. The bank is backed up by BRAC s vast experience and track record of successful administration of small, collateral free, supervised credit with a sound human and physical infrastructure support towards the credit program. While having a major concentration in SME financing, the Bank is also actively involved in retail banking and a broad range of consumer loans in addition to a sound market share in the substantial worker remittance business, operating with a network of international money transfer agencies. MARKET LEADERSHIP The bank possesses a loan book dominated by SME loans, accounting for 60% of its loan portfolio while retail, corporate and other lending accounts for 40 % of its loan book. Having acquired a 12.14% market share of SME loan disbursement by private commercial banks and 6.45% of total SME loan disbursement by all banks and financial institutions, within the first 7 years of operations, BRAC bank is the single largest SME bank in the country. The bank aims to continue to focus its attention in this sector via aggressive expansion in its branch network leveraging on the expertise of its parent. The bank offers a wide range of products tailored to the proprietors of SME s developed with the expertise of its parent coupled with an extensive marketing drive which includes an aggressive country wide expansion of branches and SME unit offices. The relatively higher risk exposure undertaken in lending to the SME segment is also reflected in wider spreads retained to compensate for its increased risk exposure. Competition in this segment is however increasing with the government encouraging more institutions to undertake financing of the SME sector. BRAC bank, the pioneer in SME lending in the country however continues to be regarded as the only dedicated lender to the SME segment largely due to its intrinsic expertise and tried and tested processes in dealing with small businesses. ASSET GROWTH Aggressive penetration in the higher yielding SME sector and a sound interest margin from retail and corporate segments contributed towards earnings growth of 85% in FY 07. The bank continued to register a strong loan growth of 66% for the year, above the industry average, driving the interest income higher by 64%. Much of the recent growth in the loan book has arisen from the SME financing segment which grew by 105% and 98% respectively in FY06 and FY07. BRAC Bank is expected to record aggressive loan growth of 60% in FY 08 and 55% in FY 09 while deposit growth is expected to remain stable at Page 2 of 5
Loans and Advances (2007) % Overdraft 5.83% Demand Loan 7.46% Term loan 22.28% Lease 1.36% SME 60.74% Credit Card, Staff Loan, Bill discounted 2.33% 50 % in FY08 and in FY09. Much of the loan growth is expected to arise from SME lending with its share of the loan book expected to increase modestly by the end of 2009. The steep expansion in its loan book and deposit base is partly due to the fact that the bank is still in the early stages of growth coupled with an aggressive strategy to rapidly increase scale over a relatively short period of time. The bank currently has a network of 36 branches and is expected to open approximately 15 to 20 branches each year over the next three years. The vision to work as a catalyst for the vibrant yet largely untapped SME sector is reinforced by the development of new lending products and its evolving product portfolio. SPREADS The SME finance exhibits higher risk exposures which is compensated by wider interest margins. As the bank continues to focus it asset exposures on higher yielding SME and retail segment, net interest margins have increased from 5.77% in 2006 to 6.16% in 2007 and is expected to continue to increase moderately over the next three years. Though the banking sector has come under the increasing pressure by the Bank of Bangladesh to narrow the interest spreads on retail and corporate loan, such pressure has not been directed towards lending to the SME segment. We believe that the bank would be able to maintain its existing spreads over the next few years. OPERATING EXPENSES Over the years, bank s cost to income ratio has declined steadily though the ratio is still relatively high compared to its peers. The ratio is expected to continue to record a modest decline as scale benefits begin to be realized assisted by a continued streamlining and automation of processes. The bank s cost to income ratio was 64% for 2007 and expected to decline to approximately 63% and 57% over the next two years. Operating expenses are expected to grow at a CAGR of 47% over the next three years stemming from branch expansion. NON INTEREST INCOME Non Interest Income % Share Loan Processing Fee 33.51% Foreign exchange earnings 20.56% Commission on remittances 10.53% ATM Card Services 7.01% Others 28.39% Total 100.00% The bank s non-interest income has grown at a CAGR of 69.45% over the last five years. Loan processing fees, foreign exchange earnings, commission on remittance and charges for ATM card services are the main sources of the bank s non interest income. Non-interest income accounted for 42% of total operating income last year and is expected to increase further from growth in the same revenue streams over the next two years. ASSET QUALITY AND CREDIT RISK BRAC bank s Gross Non Performing Loan (NPL) stood at 4.5% in 2007 up from 3.04% in 2006. As the bank s lending portfolio is largely weighted toward SME financing, we prudently expect the gross NPL ratio to expand marginally to 4.7% for the next two years given the likelihood of lower recoveries in SME Sector. Retaining the quality of the credit portfolio via improved resources in terms dedicated sales executives, information system coupled with more Page 3 of 5
effective internal processes and loan approval procedures, should contribute significantly to improve asset quality and minimizing adverse credit risk exposure in the coming years. The core banking software adopted across the entire branch network and network of Unit Offices is designed to improve the present credit evaluation and monitoring procedures of the bank The bank s provision cover for 2007 was 91% and is expected to be maintained at 95% for 2008 increasing to 100% by 2010, comfortably covering the heightened provisioning requirements of the Bangladesh Bank towards SME lending. FUNDING, CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY A 1 for 5 rights issue announced at Tk 500/- per share is expected to raise BDT 1.32 bn for the bank which will boost its Tier1 capital to 10% in the 1H FY08 from 8% recorded at the year-end FY07. Deposits accounted for 85% of liabilities in FY07, being the primary source of funding. The deposit mix is weighted toward term deposits, accounting for 74% of deposits while current deposits and savings deposits account 15% and 10% of total deposit respectively. Though the bank is planning to concentrate on low cost funding sources, we conservatively assume that the deposit composition will remain same for the next three years. The bank continues to comply with both the 5% cash reserve ratio and the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) of 18%. The banks SLR as at December 2007 stood at 18.40%. VALUATIONS BRAC Bank is one of the fastest growing banks in the country, recording strong growth with an ROAE in excess of 20% while maintaining a rapid loan growth, averaging at 64% over the past three years-well above the industry average. The bank also continues to derive sound earnings from non interest income sources while scale benefits are helping the bank lower its cost to income ratio. The aggressive penetration into the SME segment carries with it a risk of growing nonperforming assets, however the current NPL ratio is still well within manageable levels. Despite sound success of its organic growth, it has expressed interest to diversify into other alternative income streams via acquisitions hoping to enter into different services including merchant banking, leasing and other financial services. It has announced its intentions to acquire 51% of the post public issue paid up capital of GSP Finance Limited, a financial service provider company in Bangladesh, after getting necessary approvals from all concerned regulatory authorities. An expected earnings growth of 59.7% and 76% in FY08 and FY09 correspond to a PER of 16.2x and 9.21x respectively at a current market price of BDT 980. The counter trades at a 2.7% premium to the sector and at 14.8% discount to the market. Considering the bank s high loan growth and the market opportunities of the untapped SME sector along with strong support by its parent BRAC, it is our view that BRAC Bank ought to continue to trade at a premium to the sector. Page 4 of 5
Ratio Analysis 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Price / Book Value 19.8 7.3 5.1 2.9 2.0 1.3 EPS 12.2 20.2 37.9 60.5 106.5 174.8 PER 80.6 48.4 25.9 16.2 9.2 5.6 EPS Growth 94.6% 66.5% 87.0% 59.7% 76.0% 64.2% ROE 24.6% 15.8% 20.1% 18.1% 21.8% 23.6% ROAE 28.1% 23.1% 23.8% 23.1% 25.8% 28.4% ROAA 1.43% 1.43% 1.62% 1.65% 1.90% 2.08% NIM 4.00% 5.77% 6.16% 6.26% 6.50% 6.66% Fee Income / Operating Income 48% 42% 42% 41% 40% 40% Cost / Income Ratio 71.0% 66.0% 64.3% 62.8% 58.2% 55.6% Cost / Average Assets 6.19% 5.85% 5.97% 5.81% 5.52% 5.41% Tier 1 8.81% 8.71% 9.50% 9.79% 10.39% 10.76% Loan Growth 102.6% 65.9% 66.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% Asset Growth 68.5% 94.3% 63.6% 57.1% 54.6% 52.0% Loan/ Deposits 88.7% 85.4% 88.0% 90.8% 93.8% 93.8% Loan / Assets 808.7% 690.5% 700.6% 713.5% 715.1% 705.9% Deposist / Liabilities 82.6% 82.1% 85.2% 86.1% 86.1% 86.1% Equity / Assets 53.7% 74.7% 66.3% 74.0% 69.5% 68.9% NPL Ratio 2.25% 3.04% 4.45% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% NPL Coverage 128.2% 108.7% 91.0% 95.0% 97.5% 100.0% Cost / Branch 46.3 52.8 63.4 61.3 65.1 75.8 Rev. / Employee 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 Personnel Cost / Average Assets 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% Income Statement 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E For the Year Ended 31st December BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn Interest Income 1,458 2,831 4,633 7,279 11,258 17,107 Less: Interest Expense 851 1,635 2,571 4,034 6,130 9,195 Net Interest Income 607 1,197 2,062 3,245 5,128 7,912 Foreign exchange profit - - - - - - Investment Income 292 361 693 956 1,289 1,740 Commisison, Exchange and Brokerage 271 515 774 1,239 2,044 3,373 Other Operating Income 3 4 17 25 37 56 Total Operating Income 1,173 2,077 3,546 5,466 8,498 13,081 Less Operating Expenses Salaries and allowances 297 492 790 1,264 1,895 2,843 Directors' Fee and Expenses 0.75 0.79 0.40 0.44 0.48 0.53 Auditors Fee 0.91 0.47 0.62 0.68 0.75 0.83 Depreciation & Repairs and maintenance of fixed assets 34 121 178 249 349 489 Other expenses 78 160 274 384 538 753 Provision for loans and advances 239 345 669 1,003 1,369 1,986 Provision for others 0.54 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Expenses 833 1,372 2,282 3,431 4,947 7,273 Profit before Tax 340 705 1,264 2,035 3,551 5,808 Less: Provision for Taxation 148 371 646 1,058 1,847 3,020 Profit after taxation 193 334 618 977 1,705 2,788 Balance Sheet 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E As at 31st December BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn BDT 'mn Assets Cash in Bangladesh (including Foreign Currency) 161 366 512 716 1,003 1,404 Balances with Bangladesh Bank & its agents 851 1,806 2,581 4,392 6,721 10,255 Balance with other Banks in Bangladesh 1,140 2,275 2,916 4,083 4,780 9,268 Balance with other Banks outside Bangladesh 23 60 170 205 245 295 Money at call and short notice 80 600 100 130 169 220 Investments: Govt. 1,873 3,555 4,894 6,607 8,919 12,041 Investments: others 291 213 103 119 166 232 Loans and advances:loans, Cash Credit, Overdraft 11,789 19,542 32,446 51,914 80,466 120,700 Bills Purchased and Discounted 2 15 15 24 37 56 Other Assets 506 1,190 1,703 2,384 3,337 4,672 Fixed Assets including Premises, Fixture and Furniture 161 389 943 1,226 1,594 2,072 Total Assets 16,876 30,012 46,383 71,798 107,437 161,213 Liabilities and Capital Liabilities Deposits from customers 13,409 23,002 37,368 57,201 85,801 128,702 Borrowings from other Banks 1,473 1,333 2,240 3,472 5,208 7,812 Other Liabilities 1,211 3,560 3,702 5,738 8,608 12,911 Total Liabilities 16,093 27,895 43,311 66,411 99,617 149,425 Shareholders Funds Ordinary Share Capital 500 1,000 1,200 1,584 1,584 1,584 Redeemable Preference Share Capital - 150 500 500 500 500 Share Premium - 350 350 1,406 1,406 1,406 Statutory Reserve Fund 58 251 504 911 1,621 2,783 Reserves (Surplus/Deposit in P/L a/c) 224 366 518 986 2,709 5,515 Shareholders Funds 783 2,117 3,072 5,387 7,820 11,788 Liabilities & shareholders' funds 16,876 30,012 46,383 71,798 107,437 161,213 This document is published by LankaBangla Securities Ltd and John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd for the exclusive use of their clients. All information has been compiled from available documentation and LBSL's and JKSB s own research material. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this document, neither LBSL or JKSB nor its employees can accept responsibility for any decisions made by investors based on information herein. Page 5 of 5