Global Index Briefing: India MSCI September 26, 2017 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents India MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation 4 Revenue & Earnings Growth September 26, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: India MSCI
Stock Price Index 1290 90 Figure 1. INDIA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) 9/26 1290 90 890 890 690 690 490 490 290 290 90 200-day moving average. Source: MSCI. 90 7 127 97 67 Figure 2. INDIA MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION India MSCI Index: 09/26/17 Blue Angels Implied Price Index*: 0/17 x20 x x 7 127 97 67 37 37 7 7 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 200, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / September 26, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: India MSCI
Earnings 83 68 Figure 3. INDIA MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 83 68 3 3 38 38 23 23 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 8 8 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. Figure 4. INDIA MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 0 0 - Sep - - - - - -20-2 NERI Jul -8.30 Aug -9.12 Sep -6.04-20 -2 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / September 26, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: India MSCI
700 600 Figure. INDIA MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 17 18 700 600 00 00 400 400 300 200 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 300 200 0 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 2016 2017 2018 0 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. Figure 6. INDIA MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 14 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (.6) 14 13 13 12 17 18 12 11 11 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 2016 2017 2018 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / September 26, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: India MSCI
2 Figure 7. INDIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Valuation 2 20 Forward P/E (18.7) 20 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 200, weekly thereafter. 2.00 Figure 8. INDIA MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 2.00 1.7 1.7 1.0 Relative P/E (1.17) 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.00 1.00.7.7.0.0.2.2 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December 200, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / September 26, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: India MSCI
0 4 Figure 9. INDIA MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) Revenue & Earnings Growth 0 4 40 3 30 LTEG* (16.7) STEG* (.6) STRG* (11.2) 40 3 30 2 2 20 20 0-2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 2016 2017 2018 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. 0 - Page / September 26, 2017 / Global Index Briefing: India MSCI
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