UK Terrorism Threat Landscape: Where Next Post Westminster, Manchester and London Bridge? LMA Terrorism Panel Forum Ed Butler CBE DSO June 2017
Evolution of the Threat Unprecedented level of Islamist extremism in UK, 2017: 3 attacks, 35 deaths, 318 injuries Global, Evolving, Persistent & Ideological Strategic intent remains the same but capabilities increasing: Complexity vs. Simplicity Novel vs. Off the Shelf Networks vs. Lone Actors Prevalence of Inspired but cannot discount Directed attacks Exploitation of surface & sub-surface Web and Social Media Home & Away threats inter-related Sum of: battle hardened terrorists along with frustrated travellers 2
Current Events Fit Squarely with Daesh Strategy 3 Rings : 1/ Inner: conquer; defend; expand: Iraq and Syria Europe & USA Middle East & North Africa 2/ Near Abroad: create affiliates; increase disorder: Libya; Egypt; Afghanistan; Pakistan; North Africa; Yemen **3/ Far Abroad: attack and polarise the West** Syria & Iraq Europe; USA Abu Bakr al-baghdadi: The smallest action you do in their heartland is better and more enduring to us than what you would if you were with us. 3
Principles of Terrorism Not Changing Terrorists will always follow the path of least resistance Soft targets and mass effect (people or property) Too many terrorists spoil the plot Challenges for intelligence services and police tracking lone actors Suicide bombers only die once Choice of optimal targets (such as Manchester Arena) Escalation of violence and brutality Young people (Manchester); hospitals; schools. 4
Current Threat: Global Terrorism 2017 5
UK: Three Attacks in Three Months - A Comparison 6
Context: Impact of Micro Terrorism 203 Knife Homicides 408 Pedestrians killed in 2015 Homicide involving a knife or sharp instrument 250 200 150 100 50 0 Apr '10 to Mar '11 Apr '11 to Mar '12 Apr '12 to Mar '13 Apr '13 to Mar '14 Jan '15 to Dec '15 Homicide involving a knife or sharp instrument Jan '16 to Dec '16 Figure 1 - Reported road casualties Great Britain: 2015 annual report, Department for Transport 7
Emerging Unconventional Threat Scenarios Airborne Improvised Explosive Devices (ABIEDs) Electronic Warfare and EMP Weapons Emerging Threat Scenarios HAZCHEM RDDs Biological Unconventional Explosives (FAE, IEDs)
CBRN How Clean is Clean Enough? 9
Cyber Terrorism Enabling, disruptive and destructive activity Doxing Internal threats Vetting Malicious outsider Suppliers? Difficulty of attribution State enabled? Aggregation issues 10
Unmanned Terror: Drones 11
Intelligence and Security Response Challenges Urgency Scale (depth and breadth) of threat Frequency and Severity increasing Resources Inter-connectivity Criminal / Terrorist nexus Sustaining SEVERE threat level 12
Legislative Response Challenges Investigatory Powers Act Intrusive Surveillance vs personal freedoms etc Detention powers: sufficient, but Further radicalisation in the prison estate SDSR Findings: investment in CT / crime overlap 13
Challenges for Business Duty of Care Capability and Capacity to Respond Business Continuity Plans Education of staff Protection of Assets: people, buildings, share value and reputation Training and Rehearsal ~ Up to date BCPs Communication Investment Strategies Persistency of Threat 14
CONTEST: Current Framework Prevent Safeguard people from becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism Pursue Stop terrorist attacks happening in the UK and overseas Protect Strengthen our protection against a terrorist attack in the UK or overseas Prepare Mitigate the impact of a terrorist incident if it occurs HMG engagement initiatives: 15
Challenges for the Terrorism (Re)Insurance Market Type of Cover: People vs. Property Insurance Gap Information Gap Penetration Gap Outside of London & SMEs Gearing Up for New Threats 16
Insured and Un-insured Losses in Europe: 2015/6 Paris, 13 November 2015 EUR 12bn Tourism down 1.5m 2016 Brussels, 22 March 2016 EUR 1bn economic loss EUR 200m insurance losses Nice, 14 July 2016 EUR 30m 40m in life and personal accident claims 8 consecutive months of significant negative impact to hotel revenue No property claims 17
Worst attack the city has ever experienced This was among the worst terrorist incidents we have ever experienced in the United Kingdom. And although it is not the first time Manchester has suffered in this way, it is the worst attack the city has experienced, and the worst ever to hit the north of England. - Prime Minister Theresa May, 23 May 2017 1996 Manchester bombing by the IRA targeted city s infrastructure and economy and caused damage estimated to have cost 700 million (today s cost of 1.2 billion). 18
Impact on SMEs: Borough Market June 2017 The stall s losses are not covered by insurance It s massive, but our loss is measurable and, God willing, we ll recoup it, but that s not the case for victims and their families. Nadia Stokes, Stall Holder, The Times, 10 June 2017 19
Where and What Next? Mass casualties, not infrastructure damage Real risk of terrorists combining attack methodologies Catastrophic CNI attacks ( CBRN', cyber or conventional) Intelligence leaks and breaches with our partners Insurance Gap likely to widen Legislation: global data protection; intrusive surveillance; dark web Build Resilience: in corporates, societies and schools / universities 20
Questions? Ed Butler CBE DSO Head of Risk Analysis Pool Reinsurance Company Limited 3 rd Floor, Equitable House 47 King William Street, London, EC4R 9AF www.poolre.co.uk Email: eab@poolre.co.uk Main: +44 (0) 207 337 7170 Mobile: +44 (0) 7826 551 456
Disclaimer This document was prepared by Pool Reinsurance Company Limited (Pool Re). While this information has been prepared in good faith, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Pool Re, or by any of its respective directors, officers, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of this document and any such liability is expressly disclaimed. In particular, but without limitation, no representation or warranty is given as to the reasonableness of future suggestions contained in this document. Pool Re is a company limited by guarantee and registered in England and Wales under company no. 02798901 having its registered office at Hanover House, 14 Hanover Square, London W1S 1HP. Pool Re s Terrorism and Research Analysis Centre 2017. 22