Operating expenses tracked lower than core total income growth as ABL displayed continued

1QFY19 Result Update Axis Bank 31 July 2018 Reuters: AXSB.BO; Bloomberg: AXSB IN Sub-investment Grade Book Portends Lower Credit Costs Axis Bank (ABL) reported 1QFY19 results with the key strategic pointers being: (1) Asset quality entered a lower stress regime with (a) Gross slippages moderating significantly to Rs 43.37bn (b) Subinvestment grade book saw an outsized increase for the last time to Rs 103.96bn (c) Management reiterated guidance of normalization of credit costs to ~100-110 bps in 2HFY19. (2) Detailed tenure-wise breakup of MCLR-linked book indicates NIM in FY19 would broadly be maintained at FY18 levels. (3) Operating expenses tracked lower than core total income growth as ABL displayed continued superior digital strategy outcomes (See comprehensive conference call takeaways on page 2). Per se, on the results front, ABL posted 11.9% YoY NII growth to Rs51,668mn, PPOP growth of 1.9% YoY to Rs43,720mn and PAT de-growth of 46.3% YoY to Rs7,011mn. We have revised our estimates for FY19/FY20 and retained Accumulate rating on ABL, revising our target price to Rs556 (from Rs473 earlier) and valuing the stock at 1.8x FY20E P/BV. Asset quality entered a lower stress regime as sub-investment grade book saw an outsized increase for the last time: Gross slippage of Rs43.37bn compared well with a trailing 8-quarter average of Rs 69bn. We do not think decline in slippage quantum is a one-off but a durable shift to a lower stress regime since (a) We find the sub-investment grade book to be a credible superset for emerging NPA, given the proportion of corporate slippages emerging from this book has averaged 88% over the past 9 quarters (b) About Rs46.09bn worth of loans migrated from BBB to BB, the last quarter of such chunky downward migration, as per management, and ~Rs 13bn were upgraded from BB to BBB and the BB and lower book stood at 2.1% of customer assets, a relatively manageable outer limit of stress pool. (c) Management explained that the BB and lower book is not all going to fall into NPA bucket and 2QFY19 would be the last quarter of elevated slippages. With overall PCR at 69% and PCR on RBI-earmarked NCLT funded exposure at 83%, we find management guidance of normalization of credit cost to ~100-110 bps by 2HFY19 to be largely credible. Detailed tenure-wise breakup of MCLR-linked book indicates NIM in FY19 would broadly be maintained at FY18 levels: NIM expanded 8 bps QoQ whereas, the positive impact of the resolution of a key IBC List 1 account was as much as 17 bps. MCLR has been hiked by 35 bps over the last 6 months and 50% of loan book as migrated to MCLR as of 1QFY19. Given 1-month and 3-month MCLR together constitute only 36% of MCLR-linked book, MCLR resets of the remainder of the year would help NIM for FY19 sustain at FY18 levels. On the loan book front, overall advances grew 14% YoY driven by retail loan growth of 21% with retail share moving up to 48%. SME book grew 19% YoY while corporate loan growth remained slow at 6% YoY. Management said they would pursue high rated corporates aggressively. Operating expenses tracked lower than core total income growth as ABL displayed continued superior digital strategy outcomes: Operating expenses grew 12% YoY, within which staff cost grew 13% YoY. This was aided by superlative digital strategy outcomes including (a) highest mobile transaction value in the industry (b) 69%, 75% and 97% of overall retail, personal loan and credit card customers, respectively were sourced internally. Share of branch transactions stood at just 5% compared with 10% a year ago. Valuation and outlook: We have revised our NII estimates by 3.4%/7.3%, PPOP estimates by 4.9%/9.1% and PAT estimates by 9.5%/13%, for FY19/FY20, respectively. We have retained Accumulate rating on ABL, revising our target price to Rs556 (from Rs473 earlier) and valuing the stock at 1.8x FY20E P/BV. NBIE Values your patronage- Vote for The Team in the Asia Money poll 2018. Click Here ACCUMULATE Sector: Banking CMP: Rs570 Target Price: Rs556 Downside: 2% Shivaji Thapliyal Research Analyst shivaji.thapliyal@nirmalbang.com +91-22-6273 8068 Key Data Current Shares O/S (mn) 2,568.0 Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 1,461.2/21.3 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 628/448 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 7,672,077 Price Performance (%) 1 M 6 M 1 Yr Axis Bank 11.4 (4.2) 10.5 Nifty Index 5.6 2.4 13.0 Source: Bloomberg, Y/E March (Rsmn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Interest income 127,770 110,525 117,712 15.6 8.5 Interest expenses 76,102 64,364 70,407 18.2 8.1 Net interest income 51,668 46,161 47,305 11.9 9.2 NIM (%) 3.5 3.6 3.3 (17bps) 13bps Non-interest income 29,250 29,998 27,887 (2.5) 4.9 Operating income 80,918 76,159 75,191 6.2 7.6 Staff costs 12,278 10,883 10,789 12.8 13.8 Other operating expenses 24,920 22,365 27,680 11.4 (10.0) Total operating expenses 37,198 33,248 38,469 11.9 (3.3) Cost- to-income (%) 46.0 43.7 51.2 231bps (519bps) Pre-provision profit 43,720 42,911 36,722 1.9 19.1 Provisions 33,377 23,419 71,795 42.5 (53.5) PBT 10,343 19,492 (35,073) (46.9) NA Tax 3,333 6,436 (13,186) (48.2) NA -Effective tax rate 32.2 33.0 37.6 (80bps) (538bps) PAT 7,011 13,056 (21,887) (46.3) NA EPS (Rs) 2.7 5.4 (8.5) (49.9) NA BV (Rs) 250.0 238.3 247.2 4.9 1.1 Deposits 4,470,793 3,937,408 4,536,227 13.5 (1.4) Advances 4,410,745 3,854,805 4,396,503 14.4 0.3 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research

Comprehensive Conference Call Takeaways Slippages from corporate book stood at Rs.22180mn in this quarter. 88% of these slippages came from BB or below rated accounts of the book. Rs.46090mn worth of accounts got downgraded from BBB to BB or below category in this quarter. Management stated that the rating downgrades will now largely be normalised after this quarter. The management stated that one of the reasons for a higher NIM this quarter was a one-off interest realization worth Rs.2490mn from an IBC List 1 account. It had a ~17 bps impact on the margin. Lower slippages going forward, rise in MCLR rates by 35 bps and healthy recoveries are reasons due to which the management expects FY19 s NIM to be in line with FY18 s NIM. On account of rising G-sec yields, ABL suffered a loss of ~Rs.1350mn. Entire MTM hit of this amount has been absorbed in this quarter, not availing RBI dispensation. The management stated that the higher miscellaneous income in this quarter was driven by significant recoveries from written-off accounts amounting to Rs.4bn and dividends from subsidiaries worth Rs.1.3bn. Retail term deposits grew 14% and wholesale term deposits grew 28% on a YoY basis. The management has from this quarter, reclassified international card fees to be categorized under retail fees. The management stated that the credit card segment, personal loan segment, home loans and auto loans segment generate 97%, 75%, ~50% and ~50%, respectively, of their businesses from existing customers. Branch count as of quarter end stood at 3779. 76 new branches were added this quarter with new branches being relatively smaller in size. ABL has been following a stricter policy for retail NPA recognition (at 90 dpd without fail) and also raised the bar for retail NPA upgrades. The management stated that only after payment of three EMIs, will a retail account be upgraded from NPA category to standard asset category. These stipulations have led to significantly higher gross retail slippages but the impact on net slippages is a lot lower. ABL stands at rank one position in mobile banking transaction value in the industry. ABL gained traction on their recently launched Axis ASAP mobile application which has 0.6mn accounts as of this quarter end. Of this, 0.4mn accounts were added in this quarter. Currently, 88% of SME exposure is rated SME3 or higher. This figure stood at 86% on a year ago. The management stated that 94% of the new corporate sanctions in this quarter were to accounts rated A or higher. ABL s RWA to total assets ratio improved to 74% in this quarter. The bank accreted Tier 1 capital by 18 bps QoQ. Axis Finance, the NBFC subsidiary, grew it s total loan book by 47% on a YoY basis. They are now focusing to increase their retail loan book share. Axis Capital is doing well in this volatile market, having closed five transactions during this quarter. ABL is one of the three entities allowed by RBI to set up the Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS), an electronic platform for facilitating cash flows for MSMEs. ABL s digital invoice discounting platform Invoicemart continues to be India s leading TReDS platform with market share of nearly 42%. Non-fund exposure to BB or below rated accounts stood at Rs.28bn as of this quarter end. To a query regarding the resolution of a big power account which is having a haircut of 72%, the management stated that outside of NCLT, cases require 100% consent of lenders, and it is being implied that such high haircut may not be agreed upon by all in all cases. Ratings upgrades cycle has started. There were Rs.13bn worth of upgrades from BB to BBB category. 2 Axis Bank

The management stated that nothing material has shifted from NPL to below BB (standard pool) category. The management is confident of BBB to BB downgrade quantum to be lower from next quarter and it will certainly not have a four-digit number run rate. The management is expecting one more quarter of elevated slippages. The management has guided that credit costs will get normalized in the 2HFY19 and might be in the vicinity of 100-110 bps. Non-fund exposure to NPAs stood at Rs.34bn. Breakup of outstanding Gross NPA broad segment wise: Retail Rs.27bn, SME Rs.25bn and Corporate is the remaining. Fund based exposure to NCLT cases is having a PCR of 83%. Non-fund based NCLT exposure is less than ~10% of fund based exposure. The management stated that the recoveries from written-off accounts over the last four quarters came in at Rs.7030mn. The management has not heard of any list of 240 accounts that RBI is working with in terms of incremental inspection. The management stated that whenever they have a high LGD expectation from an account, they technically write-it-off and avail tax benefit. The management stated that all gas-based power exposure is NPA. The management stated that there are no material downgrades in their SME ratings. They largely cater to the organised SME segment who are less impacted by external economic factors such as demonetization and advent of GST. They believe it s a good opportunity in the high rated corporates market and they are going to pursue it aggressively. Downgraded accounts do not necessarily pertain to any big accounts. Bulk of the accounts are between Rs.1-2.5bn range. SMA2 book stood at ~50bps of the total loan book. ABL is planning to open 350 to 400 branches in the full year of FY19. 3 Axis Bank

Jul-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 May-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Exhibit 1: Financial summary Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net interest income 168,329 180,931 186,177 219,074 260,222 Pre-provision profit 161,036 175,845 155,945 194,126 232,715 PAT 78,367 36,793 2,757 69,372 111,604 EPS (Rs) 32.9 15.4 1.1 27.0 43.5 BV (Rs) 223.1 232.8 247.2 270.2 308.9 P/E (x) 17.3 37.1 530.3 21.1 13.1 P/BV (x) 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 Gross NPAs (%) 1.8 5.5 7.5 5.4 4.3 Net NPAs (%) 0.7 2.3 3.8 1.9 1.2 RoA (%) 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.9 1.2 RoE (%) 16.0 6.8 0.5 10.4 15.0 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 2: Actual performance versus our estimates (Rsmn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1QFY19E Devi. (%) Net interest income 51,668 46,161 47,305 12 9 48,712 6 Pre-provision profit 43,720 42,911 36,722 2 19 42,152 4 PAT 7,011 13,056-21,887 (46) - 4,320 62 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 3: Change in our estimates Revised estimate Earlier estimate % Revision FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Net interest income (Rsmn) 219,074 260,222 211,792 242,540 3.4 7.3 NIM (%) 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 11bps 22bps Operating profit (Rsmn) 194,126 232,715 185,038 213,288 4.9 9.1 Profit after tax (Rsmn) 69,372 111,604 63,374 98,782 9.5 13.0 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 4: One-year forward P/BV (x) 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 - Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research P/BVPS Mean +1 SD -1 SD 4 Axis Bank

Financials Exhibit 5: Income statement Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Interest income 409,880 445,422 457,803 543,048 649,877 Interest expenses 241,551 264,490 271,626 323,974 389,655 Net interest income 168,329 180,931 186,177 219,074 260,222 Fee income 83,467 85,211 96,583 119,805 141,370 Other income 10,248 31,702 13,088 13,549 19,927 Net revenues 262,044 297,844 295,848 352,428 421,519 Operating expenses 101,008 121,999 139,903 158,302 188,804 -Employee expenses 33,760 38,919 43,130 50,478 58,744 -Other expenses 67,248 83,080 96,774 107,824 130,060 Operating profit 161,036 175,845 155,945 194,126 232,715 Provisions 40,968 121,170 154,729 89,017 63,618 -Loan loss provision 45,127 115,055 164,637 88,017 62,618 -Investment depreciation 840 2,387 (2,110) - - -Other provisions (4,999) 3,727 (7,798) 1,000 1,000 PBT 120,068 54,675 1,216 105,109 169,097 Tax 41,701 17,883 (1,541) 35,737 57,493 PAT 78,367 36,793 2,757 69,372 111,604 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 7: Balance sheet Y/E March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Equity capital 4,766 4,790 5,133 5,133 5,133 Reserves & surplus 526,883 552,835 629,319 688,425 787,661 Shareholders funds 531,649 557,625 634,452 693,558 792,794 Deposits 3,579,676 4,143,788 4,536,227 5,406,735 6,433,934 Borrowings 992,264 1,050,309 1,480,161 1,853,461 2,102,970 Other liabilities 151,088 262,955 262,455 302,940 321,257 Total liabilities 5,254,677 6,014,676 6,913,295 8,256,694 9,650,954 Cash/cash equivalent 333,255 502,561 434,549 622,545 734,603 Advances 3,387,737 3,730,693 4,396,503 5,187,874 6,121,691 Investments 1,220,062 1,287,934 1,538,761 1,848,444 2,137,046 Fixed assets 35,232 37,469 39,717 43,688 48,057 Other assets 278,391 456,019 503,766 554,143 609,557 Total assets 5,254,677 6,014,676 6,913,296 8,256,694 9,650,954 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research Exhibit 6: Key ratios Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Growth (%) NII growth 18.3 7.5 2.9 17.7 18.8 Pre-provision profit growth 20.3 9.2-11.3 24.5 19.9 PAT growth 10.9-53.1-92.5 2416.4 60.9 Business (%) Deposit growth 11.0 15.8 9.5 19.2 19.0 Advances growth 20.5 10.1 17.8 18.0 18.0 Business growth 15.4 13.0 13.4 18.6 18.5 CD 94.6 90.0 96.9 96.0 95.1 CASA 47.3 51.4 53.8 54.0 55.3 Operating efficiency (%) Cost-to-income 38.5 41.0 47.3 44.9 44.8 Cost-to-assets 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Productivity (Rsmn) Business per branch 2,399.2 2,383.3 2,412.3 2,551.1 2,727.7 Business per employee 139.0 139.1 149.8 159.4 170.5 Profit per branch 27.0 11.1 0.7 16.7 24.2 Profit per employee 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.0 1.5 Spread (%) Yield on advances 9.7 9.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 Yield on investments 7.4 7.7 7.1 7.3 7.3 Cost of deposits 5.4 5.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 Yield on assets 9.0 8.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 Cost of funds 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 NIMs 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 Capital adequacy (%) Tier I 12.5 11.9 13.0 12.9 12.1 Tier II 2.8 3.1 3.5 2.9 2.5 Total CAR 15.3 15.0 16.6 15.8 14.6 Asset Quality (%) Gross NPA 1.8 5.5 7.5 5.4 4.3 Net NPA 0.7 2.3 3.8 1.9 1.2 Provision coverage 58.6 59.5 51.5 66.1 74.0 Slippage 2.4 6.1 8.2 2.0 2.0 Credit-cost 1.3 3.1 4.1 1.6 1.0 Return (%) RoE 16.0 6.8 0.5 10.4 15.0 RoA 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.9 1.2 RoRWA 2.1 0.8 0.1 1.3 1.8 Per share EPS 32.9 15.4 1.1 27.0 43.5 BV 223.1 232.8 247.2 270.2 308.9 ABV 212.5 196.8 182.5 231.9 281.4 Valuation P/E 17.3 37.1 530.3 21.1 13.1 P/BV 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 P/ABV 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.0 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Research 5 Axis Bank

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Rating track Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs) 23 July 2014 Buy 404 472 20 October 2014 Buy 403 490 8 January 2015 Accumulate 502 490 19 January 2015 Accumulate 515 550 30 April 2015 Accumulate 559 590 27 July 2015 Accumulate 581 590 28 October 2015 Accumulate 518 575 21 January 2016 Accumulate 392 435 27 April 2016 Accumulate 478 470 25 July 2016 Accumulate 537 525 26 October 2016 Accumulate 530 510 20 January 2017 Accumulate 481 490 14 February 2017 Accumulate 491 530 27 April 2017 Accumulate 516 515 26 July 2017 Accumulate 545 515 18 October 2017 Accumulate 513 525 23 January 2018 Accumulate 611 671 27 April 2018 Accumulate 495 473 31 July 2018 Accumulate 570 556 Rating track graph 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Not Covered Covered 6 Axis Bank

DISCLOSURES This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as NBEPL ) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I, Shivaji Thapliyal, the research analyst is the author of this report, hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 7 Axis Bank

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