FX Viewpoint Wednesday, September 14, 216 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 69-1888 / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: 69-181 Risk of the short term capitulation infecting medium term prospects for Asian currencies, especially if the eventual Fed rate hike results in a market being temporarily less enamored with EM/Asia. Beset by the significant loss of inflow momentum, the KRW, IDR, and PHP are seen to be relatively more at risk to any bout of dollar strength in the near term (monthly horizon). Structurally (3-month horizon), net short term inflows have deteriorated sufficiently to impinge on PHP prospects, and as pointed out previously, satiation may be kicking in for and. Investments & Structured Product Tel: 69-1886 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 69-1899 Treasury Research & Strategy Tel: 653-4887 Emmanuel Ng +65 653 3 ngcyemmanuel@ocbc.com
USD-TWD USD-TWD USD-KRW USD-KRW 16 18 125 112 114 115-116 118 122 15-124 Apr-215 Jul-215 Oct-215 Jan-216 Mar-216 Jun-216 Sep-216 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS USD-KRW 1-5 5 15 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS SOUTH KOREA 3 1 12 25 14 16 18 15 112 114 5 116 118-5 122-124 6-Feb-12 12-Nov-12 19-Aug-13 26-May-14 2-Mar-15 7-Dec-15 12-Sep-16 NFB: Bond & Equity:RS6 USD-KRW (RHS) 3. 5 3.5. 3.5 125 115 15 1-3 Bond & Eq RS 6D 1. -1 - -3 -.5..5. May-215 Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 Jun-216 Sep-216 NFB: 2d RS USD-TWD TWD vs Net foreign equity interest..5 3 - - - NFB: 2D RS - - - 3. 3.5..5..5..5. 7-Nov-13 25-Jul-14 11-Apr-15 27-Dec-15 12-Sep-16 6-day RS USD-TWD 3 - -5 5 15 TSEC net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 2
USD-IDR USD-IDR 5 INDIA 63. 63.5 7 India 64. 3 64.5 65 65. 1 65.5 6 66. 66.5 55-1 67. - 67.5 5 68. -3 - Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 Jun-216 Sep-216 68.5 69. - -5 5 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS NFB: Bond & Eq RS 2D INR vs net foreign bond & equity interest 56 India 15 58 7 6 65 5 62 6 64 55-5 66-68 5-15 7 Dec-13 Jul-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 RS6 5 1 13 3 1 1 1 1 138 1-1 1-1 -3 1-148 May-15 Sep-16 Jul-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Bond & Equity:2D RS USD-IDR 95 15 115 125-13 - 1-1 - 1-15 2-Aug-13 27-May-14 3-Mar-15 8-Dec-15 13-Sep-16 Bond & Equity: 6D RS USD-IDR - - SEBI net bond & eq RS6 15 1 13 9-7 - -1 5 Bond & Equity: 2D RS 15 1 13 9 - -5 5 Net foreign bond & eq RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 3
USD-PHP USD-PHP USD-THB USD-THB 25 15 1 5-5..5..5..5..5. 3-1.5-15. Jul-215 Dec-215 Apr-216 Sep-216 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 USD-THB -3-1 1 3 5 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 5 3 1 3-1 3 - -3 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 15 1 5-5 -1 19-Aug-13 26-May-14 2-Mar-15 7-Dec-15 12-Sep-16 Net bond & equity WTD RS6 USD-THB..5..5..5..5 48. Jul-215 Dec-215 Apr-216 Sep-216 NFB: RS2 USD-PHP PHP vs Net foreign equity interest 4 - - Net bond & equity WTD RS6 49 48 4-15 -1-5 5 1 15 NFB: RS2 49 48-15 48 19-Aug-13 26-May-14 2-Mar-15 7-Dec-15 12-Sep-16 USD-PHP NFB: RS 6 4 - -1 1 Net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 4
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