CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH January 2017 California & Metro UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH Del Norte Siskiyou Modoc Humboldt Trinity Shasta Lassen Tehama Plumas Mendocino Glenn Butte Sierra Nevada Lake Colusa Sutter Yuba Placer Sonoma San Francisco Marin San Mateo Napa Yolo Solano Contra Costa Alameda Santa Clara Sacramento San Joaquin El Dorado Amador Stanislaus Calaveras Merced Alpine Tuolumne Mariposa Madera Mono Santa Cruz San Benito Fresno Inyo Monterey Kings Tulare California & Metro Forecast is published by the Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business San Luis Obispo Kern San Bernardino Santa Barbara E-mail Web Stockton Sacramento cbpr@pacific.edu Pacific.edu/CBPR 209.946.7385 916.340.6084 Ventura Los Angeles Staff Dr. Jeffrey A. Michael, Director Dr. Thomas Pogue, Associate Director Nahila Ahsan, Research Analyst Jesse Neumann, Economic Research Analyst Neriah Howard, Student Researcher Anjul Shingal, Student Researcher Sydney Stanfill, Student Researcher Santa Barbara Ventura Santa Barbara Los Angeles Orange San Diego Riverside Imperial UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
2017-2020 California & Metro January 2017 Published quarterly by the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business. Copyright 2017 Center for Business and Policy Research. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Center s judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Center for Business and Policy Research nor The Regents of the University of the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Center for Business and Policy Research, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication, or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Contents California Highlights... 5 Forecast Summary...6-10 California Forecast Tables... 11-16 California Forecast Charts...17-21 Fresno MSA...23-26 Merced MSA...27-30 Modesto MSA...31-34 Oakland MSA... 35-38 Sacramento MSA...39-42 San Francisco MSA... 43-46 San Jose MSA...47-50 Stockton MSA...51-54
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS Highlights of the January 2017 California Forecast Real Gross State Product is forecast to grow 2.6% in 2017, followed by a gradual decline in growth rates to 2% in 2020 as the risk of recession increases. The California unemployment rate has reached its low point in this cycle and is projected to stabilize at about 5.4% for the next two years and will gradually increase to 6% by 2020. Non-farm payroll jobs will grow 1.6% in 2017, a decrease from the past four years when job growth was between 2.5% and 3%. The pace of job growth statewide will stabilize around 1% in 2018 and beyond. Health Services has become the largest employment sector in the state and is projected to add an additional 40,000 positions over the next 12 months, less than the 65,000 jobs added in recent years. Due to the anticipated decrease in federal health funding, growth in Health Services jobs will decline further to 25,000 new jobs per year in 2018 and 2019. Professional Scientific & Technical Services is a high-paying sector that has fueled the recovery. Growth in this sector will slow to about 20,000 jobs over the next year compared to over 50,000 in some recent years as Silicon Valley growth cools. Growing tourism and a gradual shift in consumer spending from retail to restaurants has fueled rapid growth in the Leisure & Hospitality sector. However, this sector s growth is slowing to 30,000 new jobs over the next 12 months and will cool further to 15,000 new jobs by 2020 as increases to the higher minimum wage lead to slower hiring. State & Local government employment will be one of the slowest growing sectors, projected at 1% or less job growth over the next several years as state and local governments grapple with slower revenue growth and rising pension costs. About 25,000 new Construction jobs are anticipated in each of the next three years, about a 3% annual growth rate. Despite this expected growth, there will still be fewer Construction jobs in 2020 than before the recession. Single-family housing starts are growing slowly, falling just short of 50,000 units in 2016. We project an increase to 60,000 units in 2017 and 73,000 units in 2018 as the state s growing housing shortage revives interest in new homes. Multi-family housing starts have surpassed pre-recession levels, but growth has stalled with about 45,000 new multi-family units produced in 2015 and 2016. We expect modest multi-family growth to 51,000 units in 2017 and up to 60,000 units by 2020. Center for Business and Policy Research 5
FORECAST SUMMARY California Outlook Since the election, there has been an upswing in business and consumer confidence. The stock market rose sharply in anticipation of corporate tax cuts and increased business investment in an environment of reduced regulation. These developments, along with fiscal stimulus from increased military and infrastructure spending, are the scenario described in our pre-election forecast in fall 2016 where we said a Trump election would most likely stimulate growth in 2017. In subsequent years, these effects will fade and some of the sideeffects such as higher interest rates, a strong dollar, reduced government spending in healthcare and other areas will dampen growth. The prospect of lower immigration and the risk of a trade war could further depress growth beyond 2017, particularly in California. Although our 2017 forecast for California has not changed dramatically, there is uncertainty about the California economy due to the new administration. We project 2.6% growth in Real Gross State Product (GSP) in 2017, slightly up from 2015. Growth in non-farm payrolls slowly decelerates to 1.6% growth, breaking a five-year stretch of job growth over 2% for California. The unemployment rate is projected to be stable at about 5.4% throughout the year. Real GSP growth is projected to decline to 2% by 2020 compared to our pre-election forecast of 2.4%. Taken together, this slower growth over several years following 2017 means we project that California s economy will be about $30 billion smaller than our pre-election forecast, a total decline of about 1%. Job growth is forecast to be just below 1% after 2018, and the unemployment rate will gradually rise from 5.4% in 2018 to nearly 6% in 2020 under this scenario. This quantitative forecast of the California economy was made prior to the inauguration. As such, it does not fully incorporate the new administration s evolving economic policies, and also does not fully capture an elevated risk of recession most likely spurred by disruptions to the global economy. After the first full week of the Trump administration, our concern of recession spurred by global conflict and disruption of the movement of goods and people has increased. The Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real Gross State Product (% change) 4.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.9 Housing Starts (thousands) 91.4 92.8 111.7 126.7 138.1 144.3 6 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
FORECAST SUMMARY forecast does assume about 2/3 of the healthcare expansion funded by Obamacare is rolled back starting in 2018, as reflected in healthcare job growth falling to below 1% after growing in excess of 3% annually over the past 5 years. California s election results include the passage of a $9 billion school bond and the extension of increased income taxes on the state s high-earners through 2030. The school bonds provide a boost to the homebuilding industry which faced the prospect of a large increase in school impact fees that could have stalled the recovery in homebuilding. We anticipate housing starts to exceed 100,000 units in 2017 for the first time in over a decade, although we have lowered our projections for home construction in this forecast as demand growth is slow and the industry struggles with high costs and supply constraints. Proposition 64 also passed, legalizing recreational marijuana starting in 2018. Our preliminary calculations show there could be up to 50,000 jobs statewide in the legal cultivation, processing, distribution, and retailing of cannabis products as the industry evolves. How and where the legalization process plays out is still very much in question as the state will be developing the details of the regulatory framework this year, and many local governments have not been friendly to the industry with many locales banning marijuanarelated businesses despite the passage of Prop. 64. In addition, there are continuing uncertainties about banking and how the Trump administration will approach states that have legalized marijuana. THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK The changing policy environment to the surprising election of President Trump will have disparate effects across different regions of the state. Inland regions are most exposed to negative effects through larger reliance on government spending, most notably a rollback in healthcare spending expected with the repeal of Obamacare. In contrast, the Bay Area will be less impacted by Obamacare and will receive greater benefits from tax cuts to high-income earners and tax and regulatory policies that will benefit corporations, the financial sector, and highincome earners. Table 2 illustrates the importance of expanded spending on healthcare and government since 2013 on personal income in the metro areas covered by the forecast. In the Bay Area, less than 20% of personal income growth was from government or healthcare sources, while all areas in the Central Valley were over 40% and most over 50%. Stockton and Merced are at the top of this list because they received an additional boost over this period from new or expanded state corrections and highereducation facilities. However, it is clear that Central Valley regions will feel macroeconomic effects of a reduction in federal healthcare spending combined with growing pension costs that will reduce new Table 2. Share of 2013-15 income growth from government transfer payments, and wages from government and healthcare jobs. Merced 58.2% Stockton-Lodi 54.3% Fresno 54.3% Sacramento-Roseville 48.7% Modesto 41.6% San Francisco-Oakland combined 19.0% San Jose 15.7% Center for Business and Policy Research 7
FORECAST SUMMARY hiring in state and local governments. All of the Central Valley areas in our forecast posted strong job growth in 2016, either at or exceeding the state average. In-migration and population growth began moving up in the Sacramento and Modesto areas in 2016 similar to moves seen first in the Stockton area in 2015 and 2016. These spillover benefits from the Bay Area will continue, but will be largely, if not entirely, offset by the anticipated pullback in healthcare funding and sluggish government employment beyond 2019. Thus, we are projecting job growth at 1% or below in most inland metro areas in 2018 with unemployment rates edging slightly higher after stabilizing for a year or two near their current levels. Heavy rains across Northern California will provide relief for areas where the drought constrained agricultural production in recent years, especially near Fresno. However, the news for agriculture is not all good. High prices pushed agricultural revenue to record levels in recent years despite drought-related production losses but price declines are now leading to revenue declines. Farmers are also facing rapidly rising costs, particularly for labor, and a stronger dollar that discourages exports. Some of these issues for farm profits, such as higher labor payments, boost other parts of the Valley economy and offset the effects of reduced farm income. If changing U.S. policies spark a trade war, U.S. agricultural exports are also a likely target for retaliatory tariffs and immigration changes could seriously disrupt agricultural labor markets. These changes, along with continued policy uncertainty surrounding water supplies, will usher in a period of substantial change and slow growth for Valley agriculture over the next decade. The outcome will likely be a somewhat smaller but still profitable industry with higher overall wages. While the long-term outlook is for slower growth, several Valley metro areas should continue to outpace the state s pace of employment growth in 2017. In addition to drought-busting rains, Fresno will continue to receive a boost from highspeed rail spending that is expected to be near $1 billion in 2017. This should result in solid 2% job growth in 2017; however, we project Fresno to slow significantly to 0.5% growth in 2020, the slowest of any of our metro areas. Recent economic data has also been strong in Sacramento. The surge in downtown investment and strong housing demand will maintain job growth at 2.5% in 2017, nearly a full percentage point above the State s projected growth. This is good news for a Capital region economy that has lagged the rest of the state badly. Sacramento will see two large employment changes in 2017 both positive and negative. Verizon is closing a large call center in Rancho Cordova eliminating about a thousand jobs and continuing a downsizing of the telecom industry in Sacramento that used to have a large employment concentration in the region. The good news is that a massive Amazon fulfillment center is being built near the airport and will create thousands of jobs similar to what has been seen near Tracy in recent years. Overall, it will be challenging for Sacramento s government and healthcare centered economic base to sustain recent momentum in the current policy environment unless efforts to attract more investment from Silicon Valley begin to bear more fruit. As a result, Sacramento job growth is anticipated to decline to 1% by 2019 after a strong year in 2017. The Stockton metropolitan area has the most negative change compared to our previous forecast. After five years of exceptionally strong job growth, preliminary employment data for Stockton in the second half of 2016 was shockingly bad. We caution that this preliminary data can send false negative signals, but we have not been able to identify any offsetting information to suggest that it is wrong. Thus, we are revising the 2017 employment 8 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
FORECAST SUMMARY growth forecast for Stockton down to 1% in 2017 after averaging over 3% for the past 4 years. The job declines are concentrated in Professional and Business Services, an important high-paying sector that is already underdeveloped in the Stockton area despite leading statewide job growth in recent years. Stockton s strong employment growth in recent years has been sparked by a few mega-projects, the large corrections hospital and Amazon s explosive growth in fulfillment centers near Tracy. This slower employment growth for the Stockton area has to be viewed in the context of several years that defied all expectations, especially since the homebuilding industry remains a fraction of its previous size. As the location where the growing Bay Area economy intersects with the Central Valley, Stockton is also positioned to benefit from continued growth in the Bay Area that drives in-migration and continued growth in commuter incomes. The level of forecast uncertainty is especially high at the moment but probably nowhere more than the North San Joaquin Valley areas of Stockton, Modesto, and Merced. In the Bay Area, growth is slowing down in the face of labor constraints, high costs, and a decrease in venture capital funding from the record levels of 2015. Recent layoff announcements from some technology companies have spurred some concern of a bubble, but some cost controls as firms mature and talent churn are expected in a dynamic, entrepreneurial economy. Silicon Valley continues to attract a disproportionate level of U.S. venture capital funding and for now, the Bay Area economy seems to be gliding towards a more sustainable pace of healthy growth in several dimensions. Up until 2016, Bay Area population growth remained high in spite of soaring living costs. However, Bay Area out-migration increased in 2016, resulting in slower growth in population and some recent stabilization in housing costs. While slower, we still anticipate job growth in the Bay Area will continue to exceed the state average at about 2% in 2017 and remaining above 1% through 2019 even as population growth drops below 1%. That means the Bay Area will continue to add jobs faster than it grows its local workforce. Since San Francisco and San Jose are already at full employment, commuting will continue to rise and the East Bay s unemployment rate will drop below 4%, while California s unemployment rate stabilizes in the mid 5% range. These forces will also cause the Bay Area economy to continue expanding geographically and increasing integration with inland areas in the Northern California Megaregion such as the North San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento. The Bay Area economy has a low reliance on government and healthcare employment, so it will be less negatively impacted than other areas of the state by changing government fiscal policies, and its financial industry is benefitting from the changing policy environment. The biggest policy risk to the region is changes to immigration policies. Center for Business and Policy Research 9
FORECAST SUMMARY Table 3. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sacramento 2.6 2.5 1.4 0.9 1.0 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.0 Stockton 3.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.9 Modesto 3.4 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.3 Merced 3.0 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.3 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.8 10.1 Fresno 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.9 10.6 California 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.9 NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo Counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties. Table 4. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 San Francisco 3.2 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 San Jose 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 Oakland 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 California 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.9 NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco and San Mateo Counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito Counties. 10 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 1. Annual Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 1560.6 1617.1 1727.4 1838.6 1862.0 1977.9 2103.7 2187.0 2288.3 2397.1 2512.8 2634.6 Calif. (%Ch) -3.4 3.6 6.8 6.4 1.3 6.2 6.4 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 1913.7 1960.9 2031.3 2121.6 2215.2 2325.0 2458.5 2557.0 2681.6 2802.7 2921.4 3040.4 Calif. (%Ch) -4.0 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 4.0 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 1913.7 1931.5 1958.1 2004.4 2055.6 2118.9 2206.8 2261.4 2320.2 2373.8 2425.5 2475.2 Calif. (%Ch) -4.4 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 4.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment -4.0-0.5 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 Labor Force 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.3 8.8 7.5 6.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.9 Non-Farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Non-Farm California -5.6-1.0 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 Mining -9.3 3.0 7.6 5.9 0.4 3.1-8.2-12.4-1.8 3.4 1.5 1.5 Construction -21.0-9.8 0.2 5.1 8.1 5.8 7.7 5.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.6 Manufacturing -10.1-3.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.4-0.6 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 Nondurable Goods -8.2-2.4-0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7-0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 Durable Goods -11.2-3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 1.8-0.6-0.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 Trans. Warehs. & Utility -6.0-1.7 1.7 2.7 3.2 4.1 5.8 2.9 2.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 Wholesale Trade -8.3-0.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.5 2.3 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.1 Retail Trade -7.2-0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.6 0.2-0.3 0.2-0.3 Financial Activities -7.0-2.9 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.1 1.6 1.9-0.4-0.3-0.5 Prof. and Business Services -7.9 0.7 2.8 5.0 4.4 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.1 1.4 Edu & Health Services 3.0 0.8 1.4 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.8 3.7 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality -4.4-0.1 2.3 4.1 4.9 4.9 3.9 3.5 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 Information -7.4-2.8 0.5 1.0 3.2 3.1 4.2 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.0 0.6 Federal Gov't. 1.1 6.8-4.6-1.8-2.0-1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6-1.8-1.8 4.6 State & Local Gov't. -1.8-2.1-1.3-1.3 0.1 2.0 2.1 2.5 1.3-0.1 0.6 0.4 Other Indicators Population (thous) 37012.2 37382.8 37743.9 38100.9 38462.7 38834.8 39189.8 39549.1 39903.1 40268.1 40649.2 41035.4 (%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 36.0 39.1 45.8 56.0 72.6 79.3 91.4 92.8 111.7 126.7 138.1 144.3 Housing Starts Single Family 26.7 26.7 23.9 28.8 36.8 41.8 46.3 48.8 60.7 72.6 80.1 82.7 Housing Starts Multi-Family 9.4 12.3 21.9 27.2 35.9 37.4 45.2 44.0 51.0 54.2 58.0 61.6 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1711.9 1848.2 2052.8 2073.6 2111.5 2129.1 2135.3 2123.8 Retail Sales (Billions $) 400.8 425.9 462.2 493.3 508.5 530.0 545.0 559.7 580.3 606.0 635.1 659.9 Center for Business and Policy Research 11
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 2. Quarterly Summary 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 2054.3 2097.2 2118.9 2144.3 2151.5 2172.1 2202.8 2221.5 2246.4 2274.8 2301.7 2330.3 Calif. (%Ch) 6.7 7.0 5.9 5.9 4.7 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.9 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2403.3 2459.7 2474.3 2496.7 2513.8 2539.0 2570.7 2604.4 2637.5 2666.3 2697.5 2725.3 Calif. (%Ch) 5.7 6.4 5.2 5.8 4.6 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2171.4 2212.2 2214.4 2229.1 2240.2 2250.5 2270.1 2284.6 2301.5 2314.0 2326.9 2338.4 Calif. (%Ch) 4.0 4.8 3.5 4.2 3.2 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.3 Labor Force 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.3 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Non-Farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Non-Farm California 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.2 Mining -2.2-6.8-10.7-13.2-13.0-12.2-12.4-12.0-7.5-4.8 0.6 4.5 Construction 6.7 7.5 8.8 8.0 6.5 5.6 4.1 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.7 Manufacturing 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.6-0.2-0.6-0.9-0.6-0.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 Nondurable Goods 1.0 1.1 0.9-0.1-0.6-0.7-1.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 Durable Goods 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.1-0.6-0.6-1.1-1.0-0.3-0.2 1.0 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 5.9 5.6 6.6 4.9 4.2 3.0 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.7 1.5 Wholesale Trade 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.0 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 Retail Trade 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1-0.1 Financial Activities 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.9 3.0 1.9 1.8 1.0 Prof. and Business Services 2.9 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.5 3.4 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.3 Edu & Health Services 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.4 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 Information 4.1 4.8 4.7 3.3 3.7 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.9 Federal Gov't. 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.4-0.6 State & Local Gov't. 2.3 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.3 3.1 2.6 1.7 0.9-0.2 Other Indicators Population (thous) 39056.7 39144.8 39233.8 39324.0 39414.7 39506.1 39594.3 39681.3 39769.7 39857.7 39947.3 40037.6 (%Ch) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 85.2 104.7 94.8 81.1 89.5 93.0 93.1 95.5 103.3 110.7 114.7 118.3 Housing Starts Single Family 42.2 49.5 46.6 46.7 47.0 45.6 51.3 51.2 54.4 60.0 62.8 65.6 Housing Starts Multi-Family 43.0 55.2 48.2 34.3 42.6 47.4 41.8 44.4 48.9 50.7 51.8 52.7 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1990.2 2024.6 2096.7 2099.5 2069.4 2061.1 2078.4 2085.7 2091.6 2100.4 2124.0 2130.1 Retail Sales (Billions $) 535.5 543.7 549.7 551.1 550.7 558.3 562.2 567.6 571.0 577.0 583.5 589.6 12 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 2. Quarterly Summary 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 2358.3 2384.1 2409.8 2436.3 2468.8 2497.8 2527.5 2557.1 2589.6 2620.3 2649.6 2679.0 Calif. (%Ch) 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2757.4 2787.5 2818.0 2847.8 2878.7 2906.0 2936.4 2964.6 2994.6 3025.8 3055.5 3085.7 Calif. (%Ch) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2354.0 2366.8 2380.6 2394.0 2407.2 2418.6 2432.1 2443.8 2455.8 2469.2 2481.6 2494.1 Calif. (%Ch) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Labor Force 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 Non-Farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Non-Farm California 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 Mining 4.4 4.3 3.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 Construction 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 Manufacturing 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 Nondurable Goods 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Durable Goods 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 Wholesale Trade 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 Retail Trade -0.2-0.3-0.4-0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.5-0.6 Financial Activities 0.2-0.3-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.4 Prof. and Business Services 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 Edu & Health Services 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Information 2.2 2.2 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 Federal Gov't. -1.3-1.9-2.0-2.0-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-0.7 14.0 5.4-0.1 State & Local Gov't. -0.2-0.2-0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 Other Indicators Population (thous) 40128.5 40220.9 40314.3 40408.7 40504.1 40600.5 40697.6 40794.7 40891.4 40987.7 41083.6 41178.8 (%Ch) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 122.3 124.4 127.7 132.6 135.3 137.6 139.1 140.5 142.0 143.3 145.4 146.3 Housing Starts Single Family 68.8 70.9 73.6 76.8 78.5 79.9 80.7 81.4 81.9 82.4 83.0 83.3 Housing Starts Multi-Family 53.4 53.5 54.0 55.7 56.8 57.7 58.4 59.1 60.2 60.9 62.4 63.0 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 2129.1 2131.7 2125.0 2130.6 2133.9 2134.2 2136.2 2137.1 2137.9 2130.6 2123.5 2103.0 Retail Sales (Billions $) 595.2 602.9 609.9 616.3 624.5 632.0 638.8 645.1 650.9 656.8 662.6 669.5 Center for Business and Policy Research 13
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Non-Farm 15862.1 15965.6 16146.9 16232.6 16302.9 16421.3 16523.6 16600.2 16658.3 16708.7 16757.7 16801.7 Manufacturing 1288.9 1292.5 1296.8 1290.6 1286.5 1284.5 1285.7 1282.6 1280.4 1284.2 1287.2 1290.5 Durable Goods 807.2 810.0 813.5 811.4 807.6 805.3 808.3 802.2 799.6 802.9 806.5 810.0 Wood Products 22.1 22.3 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.6 Computer & Electronics 264.7 266.1 266.9 266.9 266.2 266.0 265.0 263.0 261.5 263.1 264.9 267.1 Transportation Equipment 115.4 115.7 117.1 116.4 116.3 115.5 116.5 116.0 115.2 114.4 113.5 112.7 Nondurables 481.7 482.5 483.3 479.2 478.9 479.2 477.4 480.5 480.7 481.2 480.7 480.5 Foods 154.5 155.3 156.0 153.0 152.4 153.6 152.6 153.7 153.8 154.7 155.1 155.6 Non-Manufacturing 14573.2 14673.0 14850.1 14942.0 15016.5 15136.8 15237.9 15317.6 15378.0 15424.5 15470.5 15511.2 Mining 30.4 29.5 28.3 27.7 26.5 25.9 24.8 24.4 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.5 Construction 707.9 720.5 735.7 742.3 754.0 760.6 766.0 774.9 780.7 784.7 790.4 795.5 Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 542.4 548.3 560.3 562.8 565.3 564.8 569.5 577.5 580.7 583.3 585.0 586.0 Wholesale Trade 714.5 717.1 723.4 728.4 732.4 738.1 738.1 741.2 743.5 744.0 744.8 745.3 Retail Trade 1650.9 1657.4 1671.4 1673.8 1684.5 1688.6 1693.1 1693.5 1693.5 1694.2 1694.3 1692.6 Information 475.4 482.6 486.5 485.5 492.9 493.8 498.7 502.4 509.3 511.8 512.5 517.0 Prof. & Bus. Services 2461.8 2477.8 2508.0 2537.6 2531.3 2565.1 2594.4 2604.2 2620.6 2643.0 2667.6 2690.7 Admin. & Support 1046.1 1048.0 1060.3 1081.1 1067.3 1075.3 1088.6 1096.4 1105.6 1123.2 1142.8 1161.3 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1187.1 1199.6 1217.1 1225.9 1231.1 1255.1 1271.3 1274.7 1281.1 1285.8 1291.1 1296.2 Mgmt. of Co. 228.6 230.2 230.6 230.6 233.0 234.6 234.6 233.1 233.9 234.0 233.7 233.1 Financial Activities 790.2 795.5 802.2 804.4 800.2 810.9 814.2 819.6 823.9 826.6 828.7 827.8 Real Estate & Rent 268.5 270.4 273.1 275.6 274.2 280.8 282.6 285.2 287.9 289.1 290.5 290.6 Finance & Insurance 521.7 525.1 529.0 528.9 526.0 530.1 531.5 534.5 536.0 537.5 538.3 537.2 Education & Health Service 2413.7 2436.1 2479.7 2493.9 2514.4 2538.9 2563.9 2573.4 2584.8 2593.0 2600.6 2608.5 Education Services 342.0 343.2 350.8 349.2 358.2 365.8 373.2 372.1 373.3 370.4 369.0 367.5 Health Services 2071.7 2092.9 2128.9 2144.8 2156.1 2173.1 2190.7 2201.3 2211.5 2222.6 2231.6 2241.0 Leisure & Hospitality 1802.6 1816.8 1835.1 1858.5 1877.8 1891.7 1897.6 1903.3 1912.8 1920.3 1926.9 1932.3 Other Services 540.4 543.0 548.2 549.6 549.2 552.1 552.2 553.1 553.6 550.2 547.6 545.2 Government 2442.8 2448.6 2471.3 2477.5 2488.0 2506.4 2525.3 2549.9 2550.1 2548.6 2547.2 2544.8 Federal Gov't. 243.2 244.1 244.8 245.5 245.7 245.8 247.2 248.7 248.9 248.9 248.2 247.1 State & Local Gov't. 2199.6 2204.5 2226.5 2232.0 2242.3 2260.6 2278.1 2301.3 2301.2 2299.7 2299.0 2297.8 14 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Non-Farm 16841.0 16880.9 16927.4 16972.9 17011.8 17044.4 17083.2 17114.4 17144.0 17194.2 17208.2 17228.8 Manufacturing 1293.6 1297.5 1300.6 1304.8 1307.1 1309.1 1311.4 1314.5 1317.6 1319.1 1321.4 1323.9 Durable Goods 812.7 816.2 818.7 822.2 824.3 826.2 828.3 831.4 834.4 836.0 838.3 840.8 Wood Products 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 Computer & Electronics 269.0 270.9 272.5 274.1 274.3 274.5 275.1 275.8 276.6 276.7 277.1 277.6 Transportation Equipment 112.2 111.8 111.5 111.2 110.8 110.6 110.2 110.2 110.2 110.1 110.2 109.9 Nondurables 480.9 481.3 481.9 482.6 482.8 482.9 483.1 483.2 483.2 483.1 483.1 483.1 Foods 156.6 157.3 157.9 158.6 159.0 159.4 159.8 160.3 160.8 161.4 162.0 162.6 Non-Manufacturing 15547.4 15583.4 15626.7 15668.1 15704.7 15735.3 15771.8 15799.8 15826.5 15875.1 15886.8 15904.9 Mining 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 Construction 804.4 809.3 814.8 819.0 824.2 830.6 837.3 843.1 847.6 852.1 858.7 863.2 Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 587.3 589.6 591.5 592.1 592.8 593.7 594.5 595.1 595.6 595.4 595.9 596.4 Wholesale Trade 746.6 748.7 750.8 752.8 755.2 757.3 759.5 761.3 763.9 765.5 768.0 770.4 Retail Trade 1689.3 1688.4 1688.1 1688.8 1690.2 1691.1 1692.7 1692.5 1690.0 1687.6 1685.0 1682.9 Information 520.6 522.9 528.0 532.5 533.4 535.0 537.7 539.5 539.1 538.6 540.2 540.8 Prof. & Bus. Services 2712.5 2731.0 2746.8 2759.9 2775.7 2789.4 2801.8 2811.2 2819.5 2827.0 2838.7 2852.3 Admin. & Support 1180.3 1197.6 1212.1 1224.5 1235.5 1245.7 1255.1 1262.8 1268.1 1271.6 1277.4 1285.5 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1299.4 1301.4 1303.2 1304.2 1309.6 1313.7 1317.3 1319.7 1323.2 1327.8 1334.2 1340.6 Mgmt. of Co. 232.7 232.0 231.6 231.2 230.7 229.9 229.4 228.8 228.3 227.6 227.0 226.2 Financial Activities 825.4 823.9 822.6 822.6 822.5 821.9 820.6 819.0 818.1 815.9 816.0 816.0 Real Estate & Rent 290.7 290.8 291.0 291.3 291.6 291.8 292.0 292.2 292.5 292.4 292.6 292.8 Finance & Insurance 534.7 533.1 531.7 531.4 530.9 530.1 528.6 526.8 525.6 523.5 523.4 523.2 Education & Health Service 2615.8 2623.3 2631.2 2639.5 2646.0 2645.1 2649.7 2654.9 2662.6 2664.9 2671.1 2678.5 Education Services 367.0 367.0 366.9 366.4 364.8 362.9 361.3 359.5 359.0 358.1 357.6 357.0 Health Services 2248.8 2256.2 2264.3 2273.1 2281.2 2282.2 2288.4 2295.4 2303.6 2306.8 2313.4 2321.5 Leisure & Hospitality 1933.9 1939.1 1944.4 1951.0 1953.3 1957.6 1963.5 1967.8 1970.3 1973.2 1978.6 1983.2 Other Services 544.1 542.7 541.8 540.9 539.4 537.5 535.6 533.9 533.8 533.5 533.8 534.0 Government 2542.1 2538.8 2540.8 2543.1 2546.0 2550.2 2552.8 2555.2 2559.6 2595.0 2574.2 2560.4 Federal Gov't. 245.7 244.3 243.2 242.0 241.0 239.9 238.7 237.6 239.4 273.4 251.6 237.4 State & Local Gov't. 2296.4 2294.6 2297.7 2301.0 2305.0 2310.3 2314.0 2317.5 2320.2 2321.6 2322.6 2323.0 Center for Business and Policy Research 15
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 4. Employment Annual 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Non-Farm 14436.0 14282.0 14436.2 14759.1 15153.3 15584.1 16051.8 16462.0 16731.6 16905.5 17063.4 17193.8 Manufacturing 1283.5 1244.1 1250.2 1254.4 1256.3 1274.2 1292.2 1284.8 1285.6 1299.1 1310.5 1320.5 Durable Goods 800.7 773.2 781.0 783.7 783.4 796.1 810.5 805.8 804.8 817.5 827.5 837.4 Wood Products 19.7 19.0 19.8 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.1 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.1 Computer & Electronics 278.6 271.9 275.2 269.9 262.9 263.1 266.2 265.0 264.1 271.6 274.9 277.0 Transportation Equipment 114.6 108.7 105.1 105.2 106.2 109.9 116.1 116.1 114.0 111.7 110.5 110.1 Nondurables 482.8 470.9 469.2 470.6 472.8 478.2 481.7 479.0 480.8 481.7 483.0 483.1 Foods 147.9 147.1 149.5 150.3 150.9 152.9 154.7 153.1 154.8 157.6 159.6 161.7 Non-Manufacturing 13152.5 13037.9 13186.0 13504.8 13897.0 14309.9 14759.6 15177.2 15446.0 15606.4 15752.9 15873.3 Mining 26.1 26.8 28.8 30.5 30.7 31.6 29.0 25.4 24.9 25.7 26.1 26.5 Construction 622.8 560.0 561.0 589.8 637.5 674.4 726.6 763.9 787.8 811.9 833.8 855.4 Trans., Warehouse & Util. 474.5 466.5 474.5 487.3 502.6 523.3 553.5 569.3 583.8 590.1 594.0 595.8 Wholesale Trade 645.1 643.8 657.8 675.7 694.0 710.1 720.8 737.4 744.4 749.7 758.3 766.9 Retail Trade 1522.5 1518.2 1546.9 1570.1 1595.6 1628.9 1663.4 1690.0 1693.7 1688.7 1691.6 1686.4 Information 441.0 428.6 430.6 435.0 449.1 462.9 482.5 497.0 512.6 526.0 536.4 539.7 Prof. & Bus. Services 2063.6 2076.9 2135.1 2242.1 2341.3 2423.9 2496.3 2573.8 2655.5 2737.5 2794.5 2834.4 Admin. & Support 850.4 863.2 882.9 932.1 980.6 1025.0 1058.9 1081.9 1133.2 1203.6 1249.8 1275.7 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1013.2 1015.2 1049.1 1100.7 1139.4 1173.3 1207.4 1258.0 1288.6 1302.0 1315.1 1331.4 Mgmt. of Co. 200.0 198.6 203.0 209.4 221.2 225.6 230.0 233.8 233.7 231.9 229.7 227.3 Financial Activities 782.6 759.6 761.3 772.8 782.1 781.8 798.1 811.2 826.7 823.6 821.0 816.5 Real Estate & Rent 254.9 248.3 247.1 250.8 258.7 265.2 271.9 280.7 289.5 290.9 291.9 292.6 Finance & Insurance 527.7 511.3 514.2 522.0 523.4 516.6 526.2 530.5 537.2 532.7 529.1 523.9 Education & Health Service 2106.3 2123.2 2153.8 2222.8 2297.8 2365.8 2455.8 2547.7 2596.7 2627.4 2648.9 2669.3 Education Services 286.6 291.0 306.1 315.6 325.8 337.4 346.3 367.3 370.0 366.8 362.1 357.9 Health Services 1819.8 1832.2 1847.7 1907.2 1972.0 2028.4 2109.6 2180.3 2226.7 2260.6 2286.8 2311.3 Leisure & Hospitality 1503.3 1501.3 1536.0 1598.8 1676.8 1758.8 1828.3 1892.6 1923.1 1942.1 1960.5 1976.4 Other Services 485.8 484.7 493.6 505.1 517.3 536.6 545.3 551.7 549.2 542.4 536.6 533.8 Government 2478.9 2448.2 2406.5 2374.8 2372.2 2411.7 2460.0 2517.4 2547.7 2541.2 2551.0 2572.3 Federal Gov't. 251.1 268.3 255.3 250.6 245.5 242.4 244.4 246.8 248.3 243.8 239.3 250.4 State & Local Gov't. 2227.8 2179.9 2151.2 2124.3 2126.7 2169.3 2215.7 2270.6 2299.4 2297.4 2311.7 2321.9 16 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CALIFORNIA CHARTS California Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2% -4% -6% -8% 10% California Real Gross State Product (percent change from one year ago) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2% -4% -6% -8% California Unemployment Rates (percent) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 17
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 17500 California Total Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1100 California Construction Employment (Thouands) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 1700 California Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 18 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 700 California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment (Thousands) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 1000 California Financial Activities Employment (Thouands) 950 900 850 800 750 700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 2900 California Professional and Business Employment (Thousands) 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 19
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 2700 California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands) 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 600 California Information Employment (Thousands) 550 500 450 400 350 300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 300 California Federal Government Employment (Thousands) 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 20 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 2400 California State and Local Government Employment (Thousands) 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 70 California Housing Starts (Thousands) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2500 California New Passenger & Light Truck Registrations (Thousands) 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 21
METROS
Fresno MSA Total non-farm employment is expected to grow by 2% between 2016 and 2017. Non-farm employment in the first and second quarters of 2017 is expected to increase by 3.2% and 1.9% followed by increases of 1.6% and 1.3% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The leading sectors for employment growth for 2017 are predicted to be the Construction & Mining (7.6%) and the Leisure & Hospitality (7.1%) sectors. Employment between 2016 and 2017 is expected to decrease in the Information (-3%), Manufacturing (-2.3%), Federal Government (-2.3%), and Financial Activities (-0.6%) sectors. SHORT TERM OUTLOOK The Fresno MSA s population is expected to reach approximately 997,804 in 2017 and will grow between 1.2% and 1.3%, reaching 1,035,664 in 2020. An increase in the labor force between 2016 and 2017 of 1.6% is also expected. The labor force is projected to grow between 1.1% and 1.3% in the following years. The unemployment rate is forecasted to be 9.5% in 2017 and may continue to increase in the following years with an estimated 10.6% in 2020. Housing starts for both single-family and multifamily are expected to increase over the next few years as well, where single-family units will outnumber multifamily units. 8000 Fresno Housing Starts 360 Fresno Payroll Employment (Thousands) 7000 340 6000 320 5000 300 4000 3000 280 2000 260 1000 240 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 220 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Fresno Unemployment Rate (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 23
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Quarterly Outlook for Fresno January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 36.6 37.4 37.8 38.3 38.4 38.8 39.3 39.6 40.0 40.4 40.9 41.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.6 6.8 5.8 5.8 4.7 3.8 4.0 3.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.5 Wages and Salaries 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.4 Nonwage Income 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 37.7 38.4 38.7 39.1 39.1 39.4 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.6 40.9 41.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.6 50.4 50.2 50.8 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.9 52.4 52.9 53.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 5.3 3.1 3.3 2.9 1.7 2.3 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 319.9 322.3 325.8 329.9 328.9 333.9 336.3 338.2 339.4 340.3 341.7 342.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 2.8 3.6 3.2 2.5 3.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 Manufacturing 25.1 25.3 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 6.6 6.5 5.4 3.1 4.2 1.8 0.1-1.2-3.7-2.7-1.5 Nonmanufacturing 294.8 297.0 300.2 304.0 303.0 307.6 310.2 312.3 313.8 315.0 316.3 317.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.6 3.3 2.7 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 Construction & Mining 14.9 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.0 10.1 7.9 3.7 1.9-0.1 0.9 3.7 7.4 8.6 8.1 6.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.4 62.6 63.7 65.0 65.5 66.2 65.9 66.6 66.7 66.9 67.0 67.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 0.9 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.7 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.0 1.7 0.8 Wholesale Trade 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 Retail Trade 37.0 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.5 39.0 39.0 39.6 39.6 39.7 39.7 39.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 Information 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.4 1.0-0.8-1.3-1.8-2.1-4.1-4.2-4.1-3.4-0.3 Financial Activities 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.0 3.6 1.9 3.2 4.5 3.0 2.5 1.4-1.1-1.5-1.3 Prof & Business Services 31.7 31.7 31.1 31.2 31.0 31.4 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.4-1.5-2.0-2.4-0.9-0.4-0.2 0.9 0.1 2.8 3.8 Educ & Health Services 58.8 59.6 61.1 62.1 61.7 62.2 63.2 63.9 64.6 64.8 65.1 65.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.7 5.0 4.3 3.5 2.8 4.6 4.3 3.0 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.6 30.6 31.7 32.5 33.0 33.6 34.1 34.5 34.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6-2.3 1.1 3.5 4.4 9.9 7.6 6.0 4.8 Other Services 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 3.0 0.6-0.6-1.1 Federal Government 9.6 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-3.2-1.6-1.8 0.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 2.1-2.2-4.6-4.5 State & Local Government 58.0 58.6 59.3 60.7 61.0 62.0 63.1 63.0 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.5 4.3 5.7 5.1 5.8 6.3 3.8 2.8 1.2-0.3-0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 972.4 974.9 977.4 979.9 982.4 985.0 987.6 990.3 993.2 996.2 999.3 1002.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 443.6 444.1 442.8 446.0 444.9 447.9 451.1 451.8 453.7 455.3 457.1 458.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 2486 2510 2098 1834 2294 2517 2797 2572 2757 3017 3122 3131 Single-Family 2321 2246 2021 1756 2027 2374 2641 2291 2392 2593 2666 2646 Multifamily 166 264 77 77 266 143 156 281 365 423 456 485 24 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Quarterly Outlook for Fresno January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 41.8 42.2 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.0 44.5 45.0 45.5 46.1 46.6 47.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 Wages and Salaries 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 Nonwage Income 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.6 41.8 42.1 42.4 42.8 43.1 43.4 43.8 44.2 44.6 44.9 45.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.8 54.3 54.8 55.3 55.7 56.2 56.7 57.2 57.7 58.1 58.6 59.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 343.5 344.5 345.2 346.2 346.7 347.0 347.4 347.7 348.0 349.3 349.3 349.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 Manufacturing 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 318.0 318.8 319.5 320.4 320.8 321.1 321.4 321.6 321.8 323.1 322.9 323.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 Construction & Mining 16.9 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 2.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 67.1 67.3 67.4 67.6 67.7 67.9 68.0 68.2 68.2 68.2 68.3 68.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 Wholesale Trade 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 Retail Trade 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 39.9 39.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 Information 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 Financial Activities 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-1.0-0.5-0.5-0.2 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.1 Prof & Business Services 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.4 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.2 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 Educ & Health Services 65.6 65.9 66.1 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.3 66.3 66.0 65.7 65.9 66.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-0.5-0.2 Leisure & Hospitality 34.7 34.8 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.2 35.1 35.1 35.2 35.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Other Services 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.8-0.8-1.0-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.3 0.1 Federal Government 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 10.6 9.8 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-1.8-1.9-2.0-1.9-1.8-1.9-1.8-0.5 14.7 5.6-0.2 State & Local Government 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.8 62.8 62.8 62.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.1 0.1 0.3 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1005.7 1008.9 1012.0 1015.2 1018.4 1021.5 1024.7 1027.9 1031.0 1034.1 1037.3 1040.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 460.1 461.5 462.8 464.3 465.8 467.0 468.1 469.4 470.9 472.5 473.6 474.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3158 3145 3229 3364 3464 3567 3616 3713 3726 3739 3789 3832 Single-Family 2647 2623 2641 2694 2719 2760 2786 2824 2837 2838 2852 2867 Multifamily 510 522 588 670 745 807 830 889 889 901 936 964 Center for Business and Policy Research 25
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Annual Outlook for Fresno January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 28.4 28.6 29.8 31.7 32.9 33.6 35.4 37.5 39.0 40.6 42.4 44.3 46.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 1.0 4.2 6.3 3.9 2.2 5.2 6.2 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 Wages and Salaries 13.7 13.2 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.7 20.5 Nonwage Income 14.7 15.5 16.7 18.3 18.9 19.1 20.1 21.2 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.6 25.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.1 31.0 31.9 33.6 34.7 35.1 36.6 38.5 39.6 40.7 42.0 43.3 44.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.5 43.9 45.0 45.8 47.3 47.8 48.4 50.3 51.3 52.6 54.6 56.5 58.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 1.1 2.4 1.8 3.4 1.0 1.2 3.8 2.1 2.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 313.3 297.6 290.6 291.4 293.6 302.2 312.6 324.5 334.3 341.0 344.9 347.2 349.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-5.0-2.3 0.3 0.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 Manufacturing 27.1 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.1 23.9 25.5 26.1 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6-7.4-3.7-1.4-0.5-2.5 3.7 6.5 2.3-2.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 286.2 272.5 266.5 267.6 269.9 279.1 288.7 299.0 308.3 315.6 319.2 321.2 322.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6-4.8-2.2 0.4 0.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.5 Construction & Mining 18.0 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.1 15.2 15.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -15.1-22.8-11.9-3.9 5.7 8.2 5.5 7.2 1.6 7.6 2.5 2.0 2.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 59.2 55.6 55.2 57.4 58.1 60.7 61.9 63.4 66.0 66.9 67.4 68.0 68.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1-6.0-0.8 4.0 1.3 4.4 2.1 2.4 4.1 1.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 Wholesale Trade 12.9 11.9 11.5 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 Retail Trade 35.4 33.1 32.8 33.4 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.5 39.0 39.7 39.7 39.9 40.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 11.0 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.0 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 Information 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 13.3-11.7-14.1-1.5 8.1 0.2 1.5 1.5-2.3-3.0 1.9 1.3 0.7 Financial Activities 14.8 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5-6.4-3.1-3.1-0.9 0.3-1.0 2.1 3.3-0.6-0.8-0.1-0.2 Prof & Business Services 30.6 28.2 26.7 27.0 26.8 29.0 31.1 31.4 31.1 31.7 33.0 33.9 34.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2-8.1-5.0 1.0-0.5 8.2 7.0 1.2-1.0 1.9 4.1 2.8 2.0 Educ & Health Services 50.4 51.3 51.6 52.0 53.2 55.3 56.9 60.4 62.7 65.0 66.0 66.3 65.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.8 2.3 3.9 2.9 6.2 3.9 3.6 1.6 0.5-0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 27.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 28.0 29.0 30.6 31.4 31.9 34.2 34.9 35.1 35.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-4.7 0.7 1.2 3.3 3.4 5.5 2.8 1.7 7.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 Other Services 10.6 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1-4.4-1.8 1.5 4.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 1.4 0.5-1.1-0.9-0.4 Federal Government 9.7 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 0.8 8.8-4.8 0.2-2.5-1.4-2.1 3.1-2.3-2.2-1.9 4.9 State & Local Government 60.2 58.9 56.4 55.6 53.9 54.2 56.5 59.2 62.3 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0-2.1-4.3-1.4-3.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 5.2 0.9 0.2-0.2 0.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 911.0 923.0 933.6 941.7 948.7 956.6 966.2 976.1 986.3 997.8 1010.4 1023.1 1035.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 429.0 433.6 439.5 443.4 441.0 439.0 440.8 444.1 448.9 456.2 462.2 467.6 472.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.1 1.4 0.9-0.6-0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.6 14.7 16.7 16.5 15.1 13.2 11.6 10.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.9 10.6 Total Housing Starts 2693 2266 2179 1894 1900 2535 2032 2232 2545 3006 3224 3590 3771 Single-Family 2280 2164 1902 1665 1588 2277 1822 2086 2333 2574 2651 2772 2849 Multifamily 413 102 277 228 312 258 210 146 212 432 573 818 923 26 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Merced MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total non-farm employment is expected to grow 0.8% between 2016 and 2017 and will continue to experience growth through 2020. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Financial Activities (11.7%), Construction & Mining (8.4%), and Education & Health Services (4.5%) sectors. The Manufacturing and Federal Government sectors are forecasted to experience declining rates in 2017 of -6.3% and -0.6%, respectively. The Manufacturing sector is expected to see a negative percent change rate in 2018, and the Federal Government sector is expected to experience negative numbers through 2019. The population in Merced is expected to reach approximately 275,143 in 2017 and is also forecasted to grow in the next few years reaching 286,215 in 2020. The labor force is expected to grow 0.3% between 2016 and 2017 and will continue grow through 2020. The unemployment rate for the Merced MSA is forecasted to be 10% in 2017 down from 10.4% in 2016. Unemployment will decline each year but may return to 10.1% in 2020. In addition, growth in single and multifamily housing starts is also expected in the following years, with an estimated 699 units for single-family and 50 units for multifamily in 2017. 4000 Merced Housing Starts 70 Merced Payroll Employment (Thousands) 3500 65 3000 2500 60 2000 55 1500 50 1000 500 45 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Merced Unemployment Rate (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 27
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Quarterly Outlook for Merced January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.1 5.7 4.9 4.4 4.4 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 3.8 4.0 Wages and Salaries 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 Nonwage Income 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 35.5 36.2 36.5 36.6 36.7 36.9 37.5 37.7 37.9 38.1 38.4 38.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.8 49.0 48.7 49.3 49.3 49.6 50.5 51.3 51.6 52.2 52.7 53.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 4.7 2.3 2.9 3.2 1.3 3.7 4.1 4.7 5.2 4.2 3.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 62.6 62.9 63.9 63.6 64.3 65.2 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.6 65.8 65.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.1 2.2 1.9 2.7 3.8 2.5 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 Manufacturing 9.4 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.6 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 1.5 8.3 14.7 9.3-0.8-2.8-7.1-7.4-4.6-6.1 Nonmanufacturing 53.2 53.2 53.7 53.3 53.6 54.7 55.4 55.5 55.6 55.8 56.1 56.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.3 2.3 0.8 0.6 2.8 3.1 4.2 3.8 2.1 1.3 1.5 Construction & Mining 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 11.3 10.8 4.8 1.0 1.9 2.8 6.2 9.2 9.7 7.7 7.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.0 0.8-1.8-2.4-0.2 1.7 3.6 2.7 0.6-0.6-1.0 Wholesale Trade 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Retail Trade 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -25.0-25.2-25.1-25.6-0.8 0.1 1.1 4.4-0.1-0.2 1.4 1.6 Financial Activities 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 1.9-0.3-7.0-0.7 0.1 1.0 10.9 11.3 12.6 13.8 9.0 Prof & Business Services 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-6.2-0.3-0.7-7.8-2.5-8.5-4.6-0.7-1.0 4.3 4.4 Educ & Health Services 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 3.8 3.0 1.4 1.4 2.3 3.6 6.9 6.5 5.7 3.7 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.0-1.5 0.5 1.7 4.5 7.2 4.3 2.6 0.3-1.4 0.4 Other Services 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4-0.3 7.4 6.9 4.2 2.7 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.1 0.1-0.5 Federal Government 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.6 4.3-0.2 8.4 13.5 4.8 1.2 1.8-2.0-1.6 1.1 0.0 State & Local Government 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.8 18.0 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 2.3 4.6 2.8 3.2 6.0 5.7 4.4 3.5 0.6-0.1 1.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 267.9 268.5 269.2 270.0 270.7 271.5 272.3 273.1 273.9 274.7 275.6 276.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.4 115.2 115.2 116.0 116.0 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1-0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.7 11.5 11.1 11.2 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 210 152 347 247 197 116 194 818 757 639 733 867 Single-Family 210 152 347 246 197 116 194 771 729 600 676 790 Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 28 39 56 76 28 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Quarterly Outlook for Merced January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 Wages and Salaries 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 Nonwage Income 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 39.0 39.3 39.5 39.8 40.3 40.6 41.0 41.4 41.8 42.2 42.5 42.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.5 54.0 54.5 54.9 55.3 55.8 56.2 56.7 57.1 57.5 58.0 58.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 65.8 65.7 66.0 66.2 66.5 66.7 66.9 67.1 67.3 67.6 67.8 67.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 Manufacturing 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8-6.8-5.0-3.0-0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 Nonmanufacturing 56.5 56.6 56.8 57.0 57.3 57.4 57.6 57.8 58.0 58.2 58.4 58.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 Construction & Mining 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 Wholesale Trade 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Retail Trade 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 Financial Activities 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 1.7-0.6-1.1-0.6 0.0-0.6 0.0-0.6-0.6 0.0 0.0 Prof & Business Services 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 Educ & Health Services 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.8 0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.6-0.5 Leisure & Hospitality 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-0.6-0.5 0.1 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.3-0.1 0.3 0.6 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7-1.2-1.4-1.4-1.2-1.0-1.0-0.9 0.5 15.1 6.3 0.6 State & Local Government 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.3 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 277.24 278.12 279.01 279.93 280.9 281.8 282.8 283.8 284.7 285.7 286.7 287.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.6 116.7 116.7 116.8 116.9 117.3 117.7 118.1 118.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 952 1010 1074 1100 1114 1129 1137 1143 1151 1161 1169 1170 Single-Family 860 905 957 980 993 1008 1017 1024 1029 1037 1042 1042 Multifamily 92 105 117 120 121 121 120 119 122 124 127 129 Center for Business and Policy Research 29
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Annual Outlook for Merced January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 6.9 6.9 7.3 8.1 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-1.0 6.1 10.8 1.7 6.2 6.1 5.3 3.9 4.2 4.2 5.0 5.1 Wages and Salaries 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 Nonwage Income 4.4 4.3 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.8 8.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 27.7 27.1 28.3 31.0 31.3 33.0 34.7 36.2 37.2 38.3 39.4 40.8 42.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 42.7 43.7 43.2 42.9 45.5 46.4 47.2 48.7 50.2 52.4 54.2 56.0 57.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 2.4-1.1-0.8 6.1 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.1 4.3 3.5 3.3 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 59.8 57.6 58.4 58.6 59.2 60.5 62.1 63.3 65.1 65.7 65.9 66.8 67.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-3.8 1.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.7 1.9 3.0 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.3 Manufacturing 9.3 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.6 9.9 10.4 9.7 9.2 9.2 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3-7.9-3.0-1.1 2.2 3.9 10.5 2.6 5.1-6.3-5.4 0.7 1.3 Nonmanufacturing 50.5 49.0 50.1 50.4 50.8 51.7 52.4 53.4 54.8 56.0 56.7 57.5 58.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-3.0 2.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 Construction & Mining 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.9-32.0-2.4-1.6 4.1-0.2 7.9 10.4 3.0 8.4 4.9 3.4 3.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3-1.5-1.0 3.5 2.4 0.6-0.8 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.6 Wholesale Trade 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Retail Trade 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Information 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.0-5.9 1.5-29.6-7.3 0.2 0.1-25.2 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 Financial Activities 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4-12.4 0.0-3.7 0.6-3.1 4.6-1.3 2.8 11.7 1.5-0.3-0.3 Prof & Business Services 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5-7.7 3.8 4.6-2.0-0.4-11.5-2.2-5.9 1.7 3.7 2.8 2.5 Educ & Health Services 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 2.4 4.9 1.2 1.5 5.7 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.5 0.6-0.5-0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6-6.3-3.5 2.6 2.4 5.6 7.3 0.7 4.4 0.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 Other Services 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3-6.9 0.0 1.3 0.7-1.2-2.9 2.9 2.4 1.4-0.5-0.3 0.1 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1-0.1 5.2-5.8-5.2-3.2 6.0 1.0 5.3-0.6-1.2-1.1 5.6 State & Local Government 14.8 15.0 15.9 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 1.9 5.4-1.3 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.3 4.8 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 250.7 253.1 257.1 260.0 261.9 263.7 266.4 268.9 271.9 275.1 278.6 282.3 286.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 106.6 110.0 113.5 114.7 115.2 114.9 114.9 115.1 115.6 116.0 116.5 116.8 117.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.2 3.2 1.1 0.5-0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 12.7 16.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 14.5 12.8 11.4 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.8 10.1 Total Housing Starts 363 120 119 126 180 165 171 239 331 749 1034 1131 1163 Single-Family 282 118 116 99 77 97 166 239 320 699 925 1010 1037 Multifamily 81 2 3 28 103 68 6 0 12 50 108 120 125 30 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
Modesto MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total non-farm employment is expected to grow 1.5% between 2016 and 2017 with the highest growth rate seen in 2017Q1 at 2.1%. The leading sectors for employment growth between 2016 and 2017 are in the State & Local Government (4.1%), Professional & Business Services (2.9%), and Financial Services (2.6%) sectors. Declines are expected in the Information (-0.5%) and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (-0.1%) sectors. The Information sector will see declines through 2020. The population in the Modesto MSA is expected to reach 552,300 in 2017 and will grow each year reaching 572,400 in 2020. Modesto s labor force is expected to grow at a rate of 1.0% for 2017 with expected increased growth rates into 2020. Unemployment is estimated to decline to 8.4% in 2017 from 8.5% in 2016 but will rise between 2018 and 2020, reaching approximately 9.3% in 2020. Housing starts for both single-family and multifamily units are expected to see increases each year through 2020. Of note is the growth of housing starts between 2017 and 2018. 5000 Modesto Housing Starts 190 Modesto Payroll Employment (Thousands) 4500 180 4000 170 3500 160 3000 150 2500 140 2000 130 1500 1000 120 500 110 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Modesto Unemployment Rate (percent) Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 19% 200 180 17% 160 15% 140 120 13% 100 11% 80 9% 60 40 7% 20 5% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 3% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Center for Business and Policy Research 31
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Quarterly Outlook for Modesto January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 6.5 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.5 Wages and Salaries 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 Nonwage Income 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 38.1 38.8 39.0 39.3 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.7 41.0 41.3 41.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 48.9 49.9 49.5 50.2 50.3 50.6 50.9 51.3 51.7 52.3 52.9 53.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 5.0 2.5 3.2 2.8 1.5 2.8 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 164.5 165.3 166.8 167.7 170.0 172.0 172.0 172.8 173.6 173.9 174.5 175.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.2 3.3 2.7 3.3 4.1 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 Manufacturing 21.3 21.3 21.2 20.8 21.4 21.7 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 0.1-2.4 0.7 2.0-1.1 2.0 0.4-0.7 3.1 2.1 Nonmanufacturing 143.2 144.0 145.6 146.9 148.6 150.3 151.0 151.6 152.1 152.3 152.9 153.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.5 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 Construction & Mining 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.5 12.5 12.1 8.9 6.7 8.3 7.6 7.3 5.3 1.4 1.3 2.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 35.5 35.7 36.0 36.6 37.1 37.4 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.2 37.3 37.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 5.0 3.6 1.9 0.5-0.5-0.2 0.0 Wholesale Trade 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Retail Trade 22.3 22.4 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.5-3.4-0.5-0.2-6.5-3.3-4.0-3.6-0.1 0.7 0.8 Financial Activities 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8-3.2-1.3-0.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 4.1 3.2 3.0 3.2 0.7 Prof & Business Services 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.1 1.9 4.9 3.9 4.2 4.2 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.4 Educ & Health Services 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.0 31.9 31.9 31.9 32.0 32.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.2-0.2 0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 3.6 5.4 6.0 7.5 6.9 6.6 4.5 2.0 1.9 0.2 0.6 Other Services 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6-0.7 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.2 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.3 2.4 0.0 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.1 0.0-0.5-0.1 0.3 0.6 2.1 2.2 1.4 0.6-0.9 State & Local Government 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.7 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 1.6 3.1-0.9-0.3 2.6 2.6 5.2 5.6 3.8 4.1 3.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 536.8 538.4 540.0 541.7 543.3 545.0 546.4 548.2 549.8 551.5 553.0 554.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 242.5 243.7 242.1 242.7 244.7 245.2 246.6 246.2 247.1 247.8 248.5 249.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 453 482 543 280 190 74 519 659 778 818 908 1039 Single-Family 377 482 543 280 190 74 519 606 691 682 722 800 Multifamily 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 88 137 186 239 32 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Quarterly Outlook for Modesto January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.8 Wages and Salaries 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 Nonwage Income 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 42.0 42.3 42.6 42.9 43.3 43.7 44.1 44.5 45.0 45.4 45.8 46.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.9 54.5 54.9 55.4 56.0 56.5 57.2 57.7 58.2 58.8 59.4 59.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 175.3 175.5 175.9 176.2 176.5 176.7 177.1 177.5 177.9 178.3 178.6 179.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 Manufacturing 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 153.6 153.7 154.1 154.3 154.5 154.7 155.1 155.4 155.7 156.1 156.3 156.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Construction & Mining 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.6 37.7 37.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 Wholesale Trade 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 Retail Trade 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.1 Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6-1.0-1.0-1.3-2.3-2.7-3.4-4.4-4.1-4.6-4.2-4.0 Financial Activities 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.4-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.2-0.2 0.0-0.2-0.6-0.4-0.2 Prof & Business Services 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 Educ & Health Services 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.5 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.0-0.4-0.5-0.8-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Other Services 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0-1.5-1.1-0.9-0.9-1.1-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.6-0.2 0.2 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-2.2-2.3-2.2-1.9-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.5 14.5 5.4-0.1 State & Local Government 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 556.4 558.1 559.6 561.4 563.1 564.8 566.3 568.1 569.9 571.6 573.1 575.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 249.9 250.5 251.0 251.7 252.5 253.3 254.0 254.9 255.8 256.7 257.4 258.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1307 1554 1794 2010 2132 2169 2185 2199 2245 2272 2314 2334 Single-Family 1020 1232 1444 1634 1743 1777 1795 1810 1850 1870 1900 1911 Multifamily 286 321 350 376 389 392 390 389 395 403 414 423 Center for Business and Policy Research 33
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Annual Outlook for Modesto January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 15.9 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.5 19.7 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.7 24.8 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-1.1 4.4 4.9 4.9 2.8 6.6 6.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 Wages and Salaries 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.6 Nonwage Income 8.9 9.0 9.6 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.9 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.5 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.2 30.7 31.8 33.1 34.5 35.2 37.1 38.8 40.0 41.2 42.5 43.9 45.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.4 44.3 44.6 45.4 46.9 47.1 48.0 49.6 50.8 52.6 54.7 56.8 59.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 2.1 0.7 1.8 3.3 0.4 1.9 3.4 2.3 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 160.6 151.5 151.0 150.1 153.0 157.1 161.7 166.1 171.7 174.2 175.7 176.9 178.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-5.7-0.3-0.5 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.4 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 Manufacturing 22.6 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-7.7-0.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.8-0.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 138.0 130.6 130.3 129.5 132.2 136.2 140.5 144.9 150.4 152.6 153.9 154.9 156.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-5.4-0.2-0.6 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.8 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 Construction & Mining 9.1 6.6 5.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 8.4 9.0 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.8-27.3-10.6-1.7 8.5 11.2 7.7 11.5 7.5 2.5 4.0 3.6 3.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 32.9 31.4 31.6 32.2 33.5 34.5 34.9 35.9 37.3 37.3 37.3 37.6 37.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6-4.5 0.7 1.8 4.0 3.1 1.1 3.0 3.8-0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 Wholesale Trade 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Retail Trade 21.1 19.5 19.5 19.9 20.8 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 Information 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -19.2-30.1-4.5-8.3-13.6-4.9 2.7-0.1-3.5-0.5-1.0-3.2-4.2 Financial Activities 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2-7.6-2.6-0.9 0.3 0.0-2.6-2.2 2.6 2.6-0.5-0.2-0.3 Prof & Business Services 14.3 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-7.7-5.2-2.0 4.7 4.3 3.0 2.1 3.7 2.9 3.3 2.3 1.7 Educ & Health Services 25.9 26.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.8 29.8 30.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.6 31.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 3.9 3.5 0.0 1.3 2.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 0.2-0.2-0.8 0.5 Leisure & Hospitality 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0-5.6-0.6-0.7 3.1 5.8 7.5 5.0 6.4 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 Other Services 5.8 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8-10.2-2.7-4.0 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.1 1.6 2.0-1.4-1.2-0.4 Federal Government 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -18.7-1.0 12.8-9.0-0.9-6.5-3.8-0.2 0.7 0.8-2.1-1.7 4.8 State & Local Government 25.8 24.9 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.3 25.7 26.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6-3.2 1.3-1.8-1.1 0.7 2.6 1.6 2.5 4.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 509.4 512.1 515.6 518.8 522.6 527.0 532.8 539.2 545.7 552.3 558.9 565.6 572.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 233.2 236.1 243.2 242.4 242.4 241.6 242.0 242.7 245.7 248.1 250.8 253.7 257.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.2 3.0-0.3 0.0-0.3 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.1 15.5 16.9 16.5 14.9 12.9 11.1 9.5 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.3 Total Housing Starts 635 375 270 212 319 311 428 439 361 886 1666 2171 2291 Single-Family 533 288 169 132 192 279 413 420 347 724 1333 1781 1882 Multifamily 102 87 101 80 128 32 15 19 13 162 333 390 409 34 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
Oakland MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Non-farm employment in the Oakland MSA is expected to increase 1.9% between 2016 and 2017 and 1.4% between 2017 and 2018. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Information, Financial Activities, and Leisure & Hospitality sectors with 8.0%, 5.3%, and 3.9% growth, respectively. A decline of 1.2% is predicted in the Manufacturing sector. Employment declines are expected in the Other Services sector between 2018 and 2020 and in 2018 and 2019 for the Federal Government sector. The Oakland MSA population is expected grow to 2,841,918 in 2017, a growth of 1.2% between 2016 and 2017. The population is expected to grow approximately 1.1% each year, reaching 2,938,118 by 2020. Unemployment in Oakland is expected to decrease to 3.9% in 2017 down from 4.3% in 2016. The unemployment rate is forecasted to be between 3.6 and 3.8% through 2020. The labor force is expected to growth 2% between 2016 and 2017. Housing starts are also expected to grow over the next few years with similar rates of single and multifamily units. 12,000 Oakland Housing Starts 1200 Oakland Payroll Employment (Thousands) 1175 10,000 1150 1125 8,000 1100 1075 6,000 1050 1025 4,000 1000 975 2,000 950 925 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 900 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Oakland Unemployment Rate (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 35
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Quarterly Outlook for Oakland January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 171.2 174.4 176.1 178.3 178.9 180.5 183.0 184.4 186.3 188.6 190.8 193.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 7.3 6.0 5.6 4.5 3.5 3.9 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.8 Wages and Salaries 76.6 78.2 78.7 80.0 80.4 81.3 82.4 82.9 84.0 85.2 86.3 87.6 Nonwage Income 94.7 96.2 97.4 98.3 98.5 99.2 100.6 101.5 102.3 103.4 104.4 105.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 62.2 63.1 63.5 64.0 64.0 64.3 65.0 65.4 65.8 66.4 67.0 67.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 70.3 71.4 71.2 72.0 71.9 72.4 72.5 72.7 73.4 74.2 75.0 75.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 5.7 3.5 3.8 2.3 1.3 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.4 3.3 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1083.7 1089.7 1100.5 1104.6 1111.8 1117.4 1130.0 1135.5 1139.2 1142.6 1146.2 1150.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.4 1.3 Manufacturing 85.7 85.9 87.1 87.7 87.5 87.9 88.6 87.9 87.3 87.0 86.8 86.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.7 2.0 2.3 1.8 0.3-0.2-1.0-2.1-1.3 Nonmanufacturing 998.0 1003.7 1013.4 1016.9 1024.4 1029.4 1041.3 1047.6 1052.0 1055.6 1059.5 1063.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.5 Construction & Mining 61.9 62.5 63.2 65.2 66.2 67.4 68.8 69.5 69.9 70.2 70.7 71.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 6.1 5.0 7.8 6.8 7.9 8.8 6.7 5.7 4.2 2.8 2.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 195.9 197.5 200.2 201.4 203.2 203.4 204.9 204.8 204.9 205.3 205.5 205.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.0 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.4 Wholesale Trade 47.0 47.2 48.1 48.2 48.9 49.4 49.3 49.6 49.8 49.9 50.0 50.1 Retail Trade 111.6 112.4 113.5 114.1 115.5 114.6 115.4 115.0 115.0 115.1 115.0 114.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 37.4 37.9 38.6 39.1 38.9 39.4 40.2 40.3 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.6 Information 22.0 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.0 23.4 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.9 6.3 5.5 4.3 3.3 1.7 3.2 5.3 7.2 9.6 10.0 Financial Activities 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.0 49.2 49.6 49.6 50.5 51.3 52.1 52.8 53.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1.3 1.2-1.1-0.9-0.2-0.3 3.1 4.3 4.9 6.4 5.5 Prof & Business Services 181.8 182.7 183.4 183.6 183.3 183.1 185.3 185.6 186.3 187.4 188.7 190.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.3 1.8 2.6 Educ & Health Services 175.9 177.4 180.2 179.9 183.6 184.6 187.2 187.6 188.0 188.2 188.4 189.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.7 4.2 3.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.3 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 104.7 105.7 106.9 107.7 108.5 110.6 113.3 114.8 115.4 115.9 116.3 116.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.6 6.3 4.8 2.7 1.7 Other Services 37.7 37.8 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.4 38.5 39.1 39.7 39.5 39.3 39.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.3 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.6 0.8 2.0 3.5 2.8 2.1 0.1 Federal Government 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.4-0.6-0.8-0.4-0.4 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.1-0.9 State & Local Government 154.6 154.4 155.2 155.3 155.3 155.6 156.8 158.3 158.4 158.4 158.7 158.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.3 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2754.9 2765.0 2775.1 2785.4 2795.8 2806.2 2814.0 2821.1 2829.9 2838.8 2846.1 2853.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 1369.5 1375.2 1375.5 1378.7 1379.1 1380.0 1402.8 1407.8 1413.5 1418.0 1422.5 1426.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 1.4 1.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 5456 8561 7696 6538 8248 8894 8312 8439 8258 8736 8747 8710 Single-Family 3264 4780 4005 3912 5260 4207 4410 4183 4199 4374 4336 4325 Multifamily 2192 3781 3691 2626 2988 4687 3902 4256 4059 4362 4411 4385 36 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Quarterly Outlook for Oakland January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 195.4 197.6 199.8 202.1 204.7 207.3 209.9 212.7 215.5 218.1 220.8 223.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 Wages and Salaries 88.9 90.1 91.4 92.6 93.8 95.0 96.3 97.4 98.6 99.8 101.0 102.2 Nonwage Income 106.5 107.4 108.4 109.5 110.9 112.2 113.7 115.2 116.8 118.3 119.9 121.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 68.3 68.8 69.4 70.0 70.7 71.4 72.1 72.9 73.6 74.3 75.1 75.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 76.6 77.4 78.2 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.3 82.1 82.9 83.6 84.5 85.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1154.9 1159.1 1163.4 1167.3 1171.0 1174.3 1177.9 1181.0 1184.0 1187.5 1189.2 1191.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 Manufacturing 87.0 87.3 87.5 87.9 88.0 88.2 88.4 88.6 88.8 89.0 89.1 89.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 1067.8 1071.8 1075.9 1079.4 1083.0 1086.1 1089.5 1092.4 1095.1 1098.5 1100.0 1102.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 Construction & Mining 71.8 72.2 72.7 73.0 73.4 73.9 74.5 75.0 75.4 75.7 76.3 76.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 205.6 205.9 206.2 206.5 206.8 207.1 207.5 207.7 207.8 207.8 207.9 208.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 Wholesale Trade 50.2 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.2 51.4 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.2 52.4 Retail Trade 114.6 114.5 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.6 114.7 114.7 114.5 114.3 114.1 113.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 40.7 40.9 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.3 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.7 Information 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.8 8.4 6.6 4.8 2.9 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Financial Activities 53.7 54.1 54.5 55.1 55.6 56.1 56.5 56.9 57.4 57.3 57.3 57.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.3 2.2 1.5 0.7 Prof & Business Services 192.1 193.5 194.8 195.8 197.1 198.2 199.3 200.1 200.8 201.5 202.5 203.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8 Educ & Health Services 189.7 190.4 191.1 191.8 192.4 192.6 193.0 193.5 194.2 194.5 195.0 195.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 116.9 117.2 117.5 118.0 118.2 118.5 118.9 119.3 119.5 119.7 120.1 120.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 Other Services 39.1 39.0 39.0 38.9 38.8 38.7 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.7-0.8-1.0-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.2 0.1 Federal Government 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.3 15.2 14.0 13.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6-2.2-2.3-2.3-2.2-2.1-2.1-2.1-0.9 13.5 5.0-0.5 State & Local Government 159.0 159.2 159.7 159.9 160.2 160.5 160.8 161.0 161.2 161.2 161.3 161.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2861.9 2870.8 2878.2 2885.2 2894.2 2903.3 2910.8 2917.8 2926.3 2935.2 2942.2 2948.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 1430.5 1434.2 1437.9 1442.0 1445.8 1450.4 1454.4 1458.6 1462.5 1465.9 1469.3 1471.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 8805 8747 8822 9121 9305 9561 9720 9923 10017 10070 10238 10182 Single-Family 4394 4425 4530 4689 4787 4866 4915 4960 4978 5003 5035 5050 Multifamily 4410 4322 4293 4432 4518 4695 4805 4962 5039 5066 5203 5133 Center for Business and Policy Research 37
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Annual Outlook for Oakland January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 131.1 125.2 128.8 139.3 148.6 152.8 164.2 175.0 181.7 189.7 198.7 208.6 219.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6-4.5 2.9 8.1 6.7 2.9 7.5 6.6 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 Wages and Salaries 63.8 60.3 61.2 63.1 66.9 69.1 73.0 78.4 81.7 85.8 90.7 95.6 100.4 Nonwage Income 67.3 64.8 67.7 76.2 81.7 83.7 91.2 96.7 100.0 103.9 108.0 113.0 119.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 52.4 49.3 50.1 53.5 56.2 56.9 60.2 63.2 64.7 66.8 69.1 71.8 74.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 60.4 60.6 62.7 64.1 66.1 66.3 68.3 71.2 72.4 74.6 77.8 80.9 84.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.3 3.5 2.3 3.1 0.3 3.1 4.3 1.6 3.0 4.3 4.1 3.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1050.7 989.9 969.6 978.6 1006.6 1036.3 1062.5 1094.6 1123.7 1144.7 1161.2 1176.0 1188.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-5.8-2.0 0.9 2.9 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 Manufacturing 91.7 81.5 78.6 79.7 79.9 80.1 82.8 86.6 88.0 87.0 87.4 88.3 89.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-11.1-3.5 1.5 0.2 0.2 3.4 4.6 1.6-1.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 959.0 908.4 891.0 898.9 926.7 956.2 979.7 1008.0 1035.7 1057.7 1073.7 1087.7 1098.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-5.3-1.9 0.9 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 Construction & Mining 66.2 54.8 48.6 48.6 52.9 57.3 59.4 63.2 68.0 70.5 72.4 74.2 76.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3-17.2-11.1 0.1 8.9 8.3 3.7 6.4 7.5 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 193.2 179.2 173.7 175.7 180.7 186.4 191.7 198.8 204.1 205.3 206.0 207.3 207.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-7.3-3.0 1.1 2.9 3.2 2.8 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.3 Wholesale Trade 47.7 43.7 41.9 42.2 43.7 45.2 46.2 47.6 49.3 49.9 50.5 51.3 52.1 Retail Trade 109.6 102.2 100.4 101.2 104.1 107.7 109.9 112.9 115.1 115.0 114.5 114.6 114.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 35.9 33.2 31.5 32.2 32.9 33.5 35.6 38.2 39.7 40.4 41.0 41.4 41.6 Information 27.8 25.3 23.6 22.6 22.1 21.5 21.3 22.4 23.1 24.9 26.7 27.1 27.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0-9.2-6.6-4.3-2.3-2.8-0.9 5.3 3.1 8.0 7.2 1.5 0.4 Financial Activities 52.7 48.0 48.2 47.8 48.8 49.7 49.3 49.5 49.8 52.4 54.3 56.3 57.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3-8.8 0.4-0.9 2.2 1.8-0.7 0.4 0.4 5.3 3.7 3.6 1.9 Prof & Business Services 163.5 151.3 152.2 157.6 166.5 173.4 178.8 182.9 184.3 188.2 194.0 198.7 202.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3-7.5 0.7 3.5 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.3 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.4 1.7 Educ & Health Services 153.2 157.7 158.7 158.9 164.7 170.6 173.1 178.4 185.7 188.4 190.8 192.9 194.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 3.6 3.5 1.5 3.0 4.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 89.1 85.1 85.8 88.2 91.8 97.2 102.1 106.2 111.8 116.1 117.4 118.7 119.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2-4.5 0.8 2.9 4.1 5.9 5.0 4.1 5.2 3.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 Other Services 36.1 34.7 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.6 39.4 39.0 38.6 38.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2-4.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.1-1.0-0.9-0.4 Federal Government 17.1 16.7 15.7 14.6 14.2 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.6 13.4 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-2.4-5.8-7.0-2.6-3.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6-2.1-2.1 4.3 State & Local Government 160.2 155.7 149.5 149.3 148.6 149.6 152.8 154.9 156.5 158.6 159.5 160.6 161.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0-2.7-4.0-0.1-0.4 0.7 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2505.0 2539.9 2570.9 2604.5 2642.1 2685.5 2729.3 2770.1 2809.3 2841.9 2874.0 2906.5 2938.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 1304.0 1309.6 1307.9 1316.3 1336.3 1344.2 1355.6 1374.7 1392.4 1420.1 1436.1 1452.3 1467.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.4-0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 10.1 10.9 10.2 8.8 7.3 5.9 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 Total Housing Starts 4257 2830 3159 3081 4462 4612 5189 7063 8473 8613 8874 9627 10127 Single-Family 2110 1902 1919 1619 2730 3078 3308 3990 4515 4308 4510 4882 5017 Multifamily 2147 928 1240 1462 1733 1535 1881 3073 3958 4304 4364 4745 5110 38 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
Sacramento MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total non-farm employment in the Sacramento MSA is expected to increase 2.5% between 2016 and 2017 and 1.4% between 2017 and 2018. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are Professional & Business Services (6.1%), Construction & Mining (5.1%), and Education & Health Services (5.0%), while declines are forecasted for the Information (-5.4%), Other Services (-3.7%), Manufacturing (-1.2%), and State & Local Government (-0.2%) sectors. The Information sector will continue to decline through 2020. The population of the Sacramento MSA is expected to be 2,337,264 in 2017, an increase of 1.3% from 2016; the rate of growth will be 1.4% each year through 2020. The labor force is calculated to also experience a 2.1% increase in 2016 and will grow between 1.4% and 1.6% in the following years through 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to be at approximately 5.3% in 2017 and will stay between 5.3% and 6% in the following years through 2020. Housing starts are expected to increase starting 2017 for both single and multifamily units, with more singlefamily units planned. 25000 Sacramento Housing Starts 1000 Sacramento Payroll Employment (Thousands) 20000 950 900 15000 850 10000 800 5000 750 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Sacramento Unemployment Rate (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 2% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 39
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 111.3 113.5 114.9 115.8 116.5 117.2 119.0 119.9 121.3 123.0 124.6 126.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.7 3.3 3.6 3.5 4.1 5.0 4.7 5.2 Wages and Salaries 55.0 56.2 56.9 57.6 58.1 58.5 59.5 60.0 60.9 61.9 62.9 63.8 Nonwage Income 56.3 57.2 57.9 58.2 58.4 58.7 59.6 59.9 60.4 61.1 61.7 62.4 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 49.1 49.9 50.3 50.6 50.7 50.9 51.5 51.7 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 60.5 61.5 61.4 62.0 62.2 62.5 62.7 62.9 63.4 64.1 64.8 65.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 5.4 3.6 3.7 2.8 1.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 905.3 911.0 922.9 925.1 930.8 932.3 944.7 950.1 955.8 961.0 965.6 969.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.1 Manufacturing 36.1 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.7 36.7 37.6 37.2 36.7 36.5 36.5 36.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.8 1.9 1.1 1.8 0.7 3.6 2.4 0.1-0.5-3.0-1.4 Nonmanufacturing 869.2 874.6 886.6 888.8 894.1 895.7 907.1 912.9 919.0 924.5 929.1 933.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.6 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.2 2.4 2.2 Construction & Mining 48.4 49.6 50.9 52.9 53.7 54.7 57.3 57.3 57.8 58.3 58.8 59.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 8.6 10.1 13.3 11.1 10.4 12.7 8.3 7.7 6.5 2.6 3.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 145.3 146.4 147.7 147.6 147.5 147.7 149.8 152.1 153.0 153.8 154.5 155.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.9 1.4 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.2 2.0 Wholesale Trade 24.3 24.5 24.9 24.8 25.0 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 Retail Trade 96.7 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8 98.3 99.9 101.6 101.7 101.9 102.0 102.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 24.3 24.4 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.7 25.0 25.4 26.1 26.7 27.3 27.9 Information 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.0 13.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.1 1.9 0.3-1.3-1.7-2.4-1.9-3.9-6.4-5.6-5.5 Financial Activities 50.3 50.8 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.9 52.4 52.7 53.0 53.2 53.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 4.5 4.8 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.4 1.5 Prof & Business Services 118.7 118.9 121.1 119.9 120.9 121.4 122.5 124.4 126.7 128.8 130.9 133.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.4 2.2 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.2 3.8 4.7 6.1 6.8 6.9 Educ & Health Services 137.7 139.3 141.6 142.5 144.4 143.5 147.0 149.0 151.3 153.4 153.9 154.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.9 3.0 3.8 4.6 4.7 6.9 4.7 3.7 Leisure & Hospitality 93.8 94.3 95.5 96.0 96.7 96.7 96.7 97.5 98.4 99.3 100.1 100.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.5 3.0 Other Services 30.5 30.7 31.0 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.8 2.4 0.6 1.7 2.3 2.2-2.1-3.1-4.7-6.0-0.9 Federal Government 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.8-0.3 State & Local Government 216.7 216.8 219.6 219.8 220.2 220.7 222.3 222.2 221.4 221.0 220.7 220.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1-0.7-0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2266.9 2274.2 2281.6 2289.1 2296.6 2304.1 2311.3 2318.6 2325.9 2333.4 2341.0 2348.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Labor Force (Ths) 1056.6 1061.0 1061.2 1061.6 1059.4 1063.1 1079.2 1082.2 1087.1 1091.2 1095.5 1099.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.6 1.5 1.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4245 6141 6502 6712 6745 7053 8142 7428 8209 9435 10117 10778 Single-Family 3595 5529 5543 6060 5774 6110 7239 6770 7259 8092 8504 8915 Multifamily 650 612 959 651 971 943 903 658 950 1343 1613 1863 40 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 127.8 129.1 130.6 132.0 133.8 135.4 137.0 138.6 140.5 142.3 144.0 145.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 Wages and Salaries 64.6 65.4 66.3 67.1 67.9 68.7 69.5 70.2 71.1 72.0 72.8 73.6 Nonwage Income 63.1 63.7 64.3 64.9 65.9 66.7 67.5 68.4 69.4 70.3 71.2 72.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 54.2 54.6 55.0 55.4 56.0 56.4 56.9 57.4 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 66.2 66.8 67.5 68.1 68.8 69.5 70.1 70.8 71.5 72.0 72.8 73.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 972.9 975.0 977.7 980.2 982.7 984.4 986.4 988.5 991.0 994.9 996.6 998.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 36.8 36.9 37.0 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.9 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 936.1 938.1 940.6 943.0 945.4 947.0 948.9 950.9 953.2 957.0 958.6 960.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 Construction & Mining 60.1 60.6 61.1 61.5 62.0 62.6 63.2 63.8 64.2 64.6 65.2 65.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 155.2 155.5 155.8 156.1 156.5 156.9 157.3 157.5 157.7 157.7 157.9 158.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 Wholesale Trade 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 Retail Trade 101.9 102.0 102.1 102.3 102.5 102.7 102.9 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 Information 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6-0.7-0.2-0.8-1.0-1.2-1.7-1.7-1.7-1.2-0.8-0.3 Financial Activities 53.1 53.0 53.0 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 53.0 53.1 53.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.1-0.3-0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0-0.2 0.0 0.2 Prof & Business Services 135.1 136.1 136.9 137.6 138.6 139.3 140.0 140.6 141.1 141.6 142.3 143.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 5.7 4.6 3.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.8 Educ & Health Services 154.5 154.5 154.5 154.6 154.5 154.0 153.9 153.7 154.1 154.5 155.0 155.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 100.5 100.8 101.1 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.5 102.7 102.9 103.2 103.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 Other Services 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2-0.8-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.2 0.2 0.6 Federal Government 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 15.7 14.5 13.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0-1.5-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.4-1.4-1.3-0.1 14.4 5.8 0.2 State & Local Government 220.9 221.0 221.5 222.1 222.8 223.1 223.2 223.8 224.4 224.8 225.2 225.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2356.7 2364.9 2373.2 2381.6 2390.1 2398.7 2407.5 2416.3 2424.9 2433.5 2442.2 2451.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths) 1103.9 1108.1 1112.2 1116.8 1121.2 1125.7 1129.8 1133.9 1137.9 1141.6 1145.5 1148.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 11477 11882 12356 12929 13242 13550 13786 13995 14145 14263 14455 14536 Single-Family 9294 9472 9733 10063 10214 10400 10520 10629 10679 10741 10822 10858 Multifamily 2183 2410 2623 2866 3028 3150 3266 3367 3465 3522 3633 3678 Center for Business and Policy Research 41
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Annual Outlook for Sacramento January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 88.1 87.1 89.4 94.6 99.4 101.6 107.3 113.9 118.2 123.8 129.9 136.2 143.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1-1.2 2.7 5.8 5.1 2.2 5.6 6.1 3.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.1 Wages and Salaries 47.2 45.3 44.9 46.3 48.6 50.2 52.6 56.4 59.0 62.3 65.8 69.1 72.4 Nonwage Income 40.9 41.8 44.5 48.3 50.8 51.4 54.6 57.4 59.1 61.4 64.0 67.1 70.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.7 40.8 41.5 43.4 45.2 45.7 47.7 50.0 51.2 52.9 54.8 56.7 58.7 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 52.0 52.8 53.7 55.5 57.1 57.5 58.9 61.3 62.5 64.5 67.1 69.8 72.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.9 0.6 2.5 4.1 2.0 3.1 4.2 4.0 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 902.6 853.6 831.2 829.0 846.7 869.2 889.5 916.1 939.5 963.1 976.4 985.5 995.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0-5.4-2.6-0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.6 2.5 1.4 0.9 1.0 Manufacturing 38.7 34.4 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.1 35.4 36.3 37.0 36.6 37.0 37.4 37.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2-11.1-4.7 1.3 2.0 0.7 3.6 2.6 2.1-1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 Nonmanufacturing 863.9 819.1 798.4 795.8 812.8 835.0 854.1 879.8 902.4 926.5 939.5 948.0 957.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-5.2-2.5-0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.6 2.7 1.4 0.9 1.0 Construction & Mining 56.9 44.1 38.8 37.4 38.8 43.7 45.9 50.4 55.8 58.6 60.9 62.9 64.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -15.9-22.6-11.6-3.6 3.8 12.6 5.1 9.8 10.6 5.1 3.9 3.4 3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 146.7 134.9 132.6 134.2 138.9 141.7 143.3 146.7 149.3 154.1 155.7 157.0 157.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2-8.0-1.7 1.2 3.6 2.0 1.2 2.4 1.7 3.3 1.0 0.9 0.5 Wholesale Trade 26.5 24.1 22.8 23.7 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.3 Retail Trade 95.2 87.6 88.0 89.4 91.8 93.8 95.3 97.5 99.4 101.9 102.1 102.8 103.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.1 23.2 21.7 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.6 24.6 25.0 27.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 Information 19.2 18.3 17.2 16.3 15.6 14.8 13.9 14.2 13.9 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1-4.9-6.0-5.0-4.6-5.2-6.0 2.2-1.8-5.4-1.3-1.4-1.0 Financial Activities 57.2 52.9 48.3 46.7 48.2 49.4 48.9 50.9 51.9 53.0 53.0 53.1 53.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1-7.5-8.6-3.4 3.2 2.6-1.0 4.2 1.9 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 Prof & Business Services 110.2 101.2 102.3 104.4 111.1 114.6 118.2 119.6 122.3 129.8 136.4 139.6 142.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-8.1 1.1 2.1 6.4 3.2 3.1 1.2 2.2 6.1 5.1 2.3 1.7 Educ & Health Services 119.9 121.7 120.7 122.5 125.6 130.7 134.3 140.3 146.0 153.3 154.5 154.0 154.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 1.5-0.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 2.8 4.5 4.1 5.0 0.8-0.3 0.5 Leisure & Hospitality 85.9 81.9 80.2 81.7 84.5 88.7 91.8 94.9 96.9 99.5 101.0 102.1 103.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-4.6-2.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 2.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 Other Services 29.6 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.6 29.0 30.2 30.7 31.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3-2.6-2.4-0.5 1.9 1.6 4.1 1.8 1.0-3.7-0.7-0.5 0.1 Federal Government 12.5 13.3 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.7 14.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 6.2 10.6-4.1-1.9-1.9 0.5 1.4 2.2 0.7-1.5-1.4 5.1 State & Local Government 225.9 222.0 215.6 210.6 207.7 209.1 214.2 218.2 221.4 221.0 221.4 223.2 225.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4-1.7-2.9-2.3-1.4 0.6 2.5 1.9 1.4-0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2111.2 2135.3 2157.0 2177.9 2198.3 2221.3 2248.7 2277.9 2307.6 2337.3 2369.1 2403.2 2437.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths) 1045.6 1051.4 1049.6 1045.1 1049.9 1048.9 1050.8 1060.1 1071.0 1093.3 1110.2 1127.7 1143.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.6-0.2-0.4 0.5-0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.1 10.9 12.3 11.8 10.3 8.7 7.1 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.0 Total Housing Starts 5531 2925 2563 2816 3425 4141 4251 5900 7342 9635 12161 13643 14350 Single-Family 4291 2721 2247 2071 2944 3560 3909 5181 6473 8192 9640 10441 10775 Multifamily 1240 204 316 745 481 581 341 718 868 1442 2521 3203 3575 42 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
San Francisco MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Non-farm employment is expected to grow by 2.2% between 2016 and 2017 and 1.8% between 2017 and 2018. Job growth in non-farm employment is expected to be 2.2% in the first quarter of 2017. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Information (5.9%), Financial Activities (4.2%), and Professional & Business Services (3.4%) sectors. Declines are expected in the Other Services (-1%) and State & Local Government (-0.3%) sectors in the next few years. The San Francisco MSA population is expected to reach approximately 1,661,780 in 2017 an increase of 0.7% from the previous year. The population is forecasted to grow between 0.5%-0.6% through 2020. The labor force is expected to grow 2.2% between 2016 and 2017 as well as 1.1% between 2017 and 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly decline to 3% in 2017 from 3.2% in 2016 and is expected to stay at 2.9% through 2020. Housing starts are predicted to decrease in 2017 through 2020; housing starts will mostly be composed of multifamily units. 6000 San Francisco Housing Starts 1200 San Francisco Payroll Employment (Thousands) 5000 1150 1100 4000 1050 3000 1000 2000 950 900 1000 850 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 800 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% San Francisco Unemployment Rate (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 1% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 43
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 155.9 160.0 162.5 164.8 165.6 166.7 169.0 170.2 172.8 175.8 178.4 181.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.7 9.4 8.3 8.4 6.2 4.2 4.0 3.2 4.4 5.4 5.5 6.5 Wages and Salaries 110.5 113.7 115.4 117.7 118.6 119.9 121.4 123.0 125.2 127.4 129.4 131.6 Nonwage Income 45.5 46.4 47.0 47.2 47.0 46.8 47.6 47.1 47.7 48.4 48.9 49.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 95.9 98.2 99.4 100.5 100.7 101.1 102.3 102.9 104.3 105.8 107.3 108.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 106.8 108.7 108.6 110.1 109.9 110.8 111.3 112.2 113.5 114.9 116.3 117.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 6.8 4.6 5.3 2.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1031.1 1043.1 1060.4 1066.1 1075.8 1079.2 1087.7 1093.3 1099.8 1105.3 1110.2 1115.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.5 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.5 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 Manufacturing 36.0 35.7 35.9 35.4 35.5 35.6 35.5 35.3 35.7 36.3 36.8 37.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.5 0.6-1.9-1.2-0.3-1.1-0.1 0.5 2.0 3.7 5.6 Nonmanufacturing 995.2 1007.5 1024.6 1030.7 1040.3 1043.6 1052.2 1058.0 1064.1 1069.1 1073.4 1078.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.6 5.3 4.8 4.5 3.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.9 Construction & Mining 39.3 40.8 42.9 43.4 44.3 45.1 45.8 45.7 45.5 45.3 45.2 45.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.5 13.0 18.6 15.8 12.7 10.4 6.7 5.3 2.8 0.5-1.2-1.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 147.1 148.4 149.9 151.0 151.7 150.8 152.2 153.9 154.6 155.3 155.4 155.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.2 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 3.0 2.1 1.0 Wholesale Trade 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 Retail Trade 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.6 83.4 82.5 82.8 83.1 83.2 83.3 83.2 83.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 40.0 40.3 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.2 42.1 42.8 43.4 43.9 44.1 44.3 Information 57.9 59.3 60.6 61.1 61.1 60.9 60.8 62.0 63.5 64.4 65.1 66.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.2 10.1 9.4 7.7 5.4 2.7 0.4 1.5 4.0 5.8 7.1 6.8 Financial Activities 72.4 73.1 74.3 74.1 74.1 73.8 74.4 75.1 76.2 77.1 78.0 78.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 3.5 4.7 3.7 2.4 0.9 0.2 1.4 2.8 4.5 4.7 4.6 Prof & Business Services 252.8 258.1 264.7 267.9 271.7 273.0 276.4 277.2 279.5 282.2 285.1 288.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 6.7 7.8 7.3 7.5 5.8 4.4 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.2 4.1 Educ & Health Services 128.2 128.9 130.3 131.8 133.7 134.5 136.4 137.1 137.4 137.4 137.3 137.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.0 2.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 134.3 135.0 136.7 136.5 137.8 138.6 138.5 139.1 140.0 140.6 141.2 141.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 3.6 3.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 Other Services 40.2 40.1 40.2 40.0 39.7 40.4 39.5 39.5 39.6 39.4 39.3 39.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 1.6 0.6-0.2-1.3 0.8-1.6-1.3-0.2-2.4-0.6-0.8 Federal Government 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3-0.2 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.3-0.2-1.2 State & Local Government 105.3 106.0 107.5 107.3 108.4 109.0 110.4 110.4 110.0 109.5 109.0 108.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.2 3.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.5-1.3-1.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1625.2 1630.0 1634.8 1639.6 1644.5 1649.4 1651.9 1654.4 1657.7 1661.0 1663.2 1665.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Labor Force (Ths.) 980.3 987.5 992.9 999.0 1000.6 999.4 1013.7 1021.8 1026.5 1029.9 1033.3 1036.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 1.9 1.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3774 4597 4639 4492 4540 5771 4605 5561 4960 4758 4535 4354 Single-Family 479 522 693 904 355 572 752 677 641 614 548 499 Multifamily 3295 4075 3946 3588 4186 5199 3854 4885 4320 4144 3988 3855 44 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 184.1 186.9 189.6 192.4 195.4 198.2 200.8 203.3 206.1 208.8 211.4 214.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 Wages and Salaries 133.6 135.8 138.0 140.1 142.0 144.0 145.9 147.8 149.5 151.5 153.3 155.2 Nonwage Income 50.5 51.1 51.7 52.3 53.4 54.1 54.8 55.6 56.6 57.3 58.0 58.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 110.3 111.8 113.3 114.9 116.4 117.9 119.3 120.7 122.2 123.6 125.1 126.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 119.0 120.4 121.7 123.1 124.4 125.7 127.0 128.3 129.6 130.9 132.4 133.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1119.8 1125.0 1130.5 1135.6 1139.2 1143.0 1146.1 1148.5 1150.7 1154.0 1154.8 1156.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 Manufacturing 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.4 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 Nonmanufacturing 1082.5 1087.7 1093.1 1098.2 1101.8 1105.6 1108.6 1111.1 1113.2 1116.5 1117.4 1118.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 Construction & Mining 45.2 45.1 45.1 45.0 44.9 44.9 44.9 44.9 44.8 44.6 44.6 43.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7-0.4-0.2-0.3-0.7-0.5-0.4-0.1-0.2-0.7-0.8-2.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 155.6 155.8 155.9 156.0 156.2 156.5 156.5 156.4 156.5 156.4 156.1 155.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2-0.1-0.2-0.3 Wholesale Trade 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 Retail Trade 83.0 82.9 82.8 82.7 82.8 82.9 82.8 82.7 82.5 82.4 82.1 81.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 44.5 44.7 44.9 45.0 45.1 45.2 45.3 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.5 45.5 Information 67.4 68.5 69.8 71.1 71.9 72.7 73.8 74.7 75.2 75.7 76.4 78.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 6.2 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 4.6 Financial Activities 79.0 79.5 80.1 80.7 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.7 80.7 80.6 80.6 80.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.0-0.1-0.4-0.2-0.1 Prof & Business Services 291.5 294.7 297.6 300.3 302.5 305.1 306.9 308.4 309.6 310.6 312.1 314.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.8 Educ & Health Services 137.3 137.7 138.1 138.5 138.9 138.9 139.1 139.3 139.7 139.7 140.0 140.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Leisure & Hospitality 141.9 142.3 142.8 143.4 143.7 144.0 144.5 144.8 145.1 145.2 145.7 146.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 Other Services 39.1 39.1 39.0 39.0 38.9 38.8 38.7 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.8-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.3 0.0 Federal Government 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.9 19.3 17.7 16.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-2.5-2.6-2.7-2.5-2.4-2.5-2.4-1.2 13.2 4.7-0.8 State & Local Government 108.0 107.5 107.3 107.1 106.9 106.8 106.6 106.4 106.2 105.9 105.6 104.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-1.8-1.6-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.7-0.9-1.0-1.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1668.4 1671.5 1673.3 1675.1 1678.1 1680.8 1682.4 1683.8 1686.7 1689.1 1690.3 1691.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Labor Force (Ths.) 1039.0 1041.6 1044.1 1046.7 1049.2 1051.4 1053.0 1054.3 1055.4 1056.2 1057.0 1057.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4233 4077 3978 3950 3883 3803 3705 3643 3598 3611 3664 3621 Single-Family 477 458 455 455 454 454 447 447 446 451 453 454 Multifamily 3756 3619 3523 3495 3429 3350 3258 3197 3152 3160 3211 3166 Center for Business and Policy Research 45
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Annual Outlook for San Francisco January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 113.7 107.4 111.2 121.8 136.0 138.0 148.0 160.8 167.9 177.1 188.3 199.4 210.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3-5.6 3.6 9.5 11.7 1.5 7.2 8.7 4.4 5.5 6.3 5.9 5.3 Wages and Salaries 72.0 69.3 69.7 75.0 90.3 95.6 103.6 114.3 120.7 128.4 136.9 144.9 152.4 Nonwage Income 41.8 38.0 41.5 46.8 45.7 42.4 44.4 46.5 47.1 48.7 51.4 54.5 57.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 76.0 70.8 72.7 78.6 86.5 86.6 91.7 98.5 101.7 106.6 112.6 118.6 124.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 78.8 79.6 80.8 84.6 97.3 99.2 102.9 108.5 111.1 115.6 121.0 126.3 131.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.1 1.4 4.8 15.0 2.0 3.7 5.5 2.3 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 910.6 867.7 859.9 882.9 924.8 960.9 1003.5 1050.2 1084.0 1107.7 1127.7 1144.2 1153.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3-4.7-0.9 2.7 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.7 3.2 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.8 Manufacturing 40.0 36.1 35.0 34.4 34.0 34.7 35.6 35.7 35.5 36.5 37.4 37.5 37.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-9.9-3.0-1.6-1.2 2.1 2.5 0.4-0.7 2.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 Nonmanufacturing 870.5 831.6 824.9 848.5 890.8 926.2 967.9 1014.5 1048.5 1071.2 1090.3 1106.8 1116.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5-4.5-0.8 2.9 5.0 4.0 4.5 4.8 3.4 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.9 Construction & Mining 37.9 30.1 27.7 28.4 30.3 32.7 36.2 41.6 45.2 45.3 45.1 44.9 44.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3-20.8-7.6 2.6 6.7 7.7 10.8 15.0 8.8 0.2-0.4-0.4-1.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 142.3 133.4 130.1 130.9 135.5 140.9 145.0 149.1 152.2 155.2 155.8 156.4 156.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2-6.2-2.5 0.6 3.6 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.4-0.1 Wholesale Trade 24.1 22.2 21.6 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.6 27.1 27.4 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 Retail Trade 79.6 74.5 73.3 73.7 75.6 77.5 79.6 81.4 82.9 83.2 82.9 82.8 82.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 38.6 36.7 35.3 34.9 36.4 38.7 39.7 40.6 41.9 43.9 44.8 45.2 45.5 Information 38.6 37.6 36.9 40.6 46.3 49.6 54.6 59.7 61.2 64.8 69.2 73.2 76.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1-2.5-1.8 10.0 14.2 7.0 10.2 9.4 2.5 5.9 6.7 5.9 4.2 Financial Activities 76.2 69.3 67.0 66.4 67.7 69.6 70.8 73.5 74.4 77.5 79.8 80.8 80.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4-9.0-3.3-0.9 2.0 2.7 1.9 3.7 1.2 4.2 3.1 1.2-0.2 Prof & Business Services 192.1 182.3 182.0 195.8 214.2 228.0 243.9 260.9 274.6 283.8 296.0 305.7 311.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2-5.1-0.1 7.6 9.4 6.5 7.0 6.9 5.3 3.4 4.3 3.3 1.9 Educ & Health Services 112.2 115.2 116.5 116.9 120.0 123.4 126.0 129.8 135.4 137.3 137.9 139.0 139.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 2.7 1.1 0.3 2.7 2.8 2.1 3.0 4.3 1.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 113.9 109.8 110.5 115.0 121.5 125.7 131.1 135.6 138.5 140.9 142.6 144.2 145.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9-3.6 0.7 4.1 5.6 3.5 4.3 3.5 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.2 0.9 Other Services 34.5 33.2 32.8 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.6 40.1 39.8 39.4 39.0 38.7 38.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6-3.5-1.3 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.3 1.2-0.9-1.0-0.8-0.8-0.5 Federal Government 18.3 17.9 19.3 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.4 17.0 17.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6-2.2 7.6-5.0-2.2-2.0-0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3-2.4-2.5 4.0 State & Local Government 104.5 102.7 102.0 102.1 101.5 101.3 103.2 106.5 109.6 109.2 107.5 106.7 105.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2-1.8-0.7 0.1-0.5-0.2 1.9 3.3 2.8-0.3-1.6-0.7-1.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1497.4 1516.3 1528.9 1549.0 1572.5 1593.3 1613.2 1632.4 1650.1 1661.8 1672.1 1681.3 1689.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 Labor Force (Ths.) 872.5 877.4 879.0 894.3 922.9 937.6 961.2 989.9 1008.9 1031.5 1042.9 1052.0 1056.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.6 2.5 3.0 1.9 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 8.5 8.7 7.8 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 Total Housing Starts 2493 681 794 2584 3498 4680 3858 4376 5120 4652 4059 3759 3623 Single-Family 425 280 251 299 352 422 443 649 589 575 461 450 451 Multifamily 2067 401 543 2285 3146 4257 3415 3726 4531 4077 3598 3308 3172 46 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
San Jose MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total non-farm employment is expected to grow 2% between 2016 and 2017 and 1.2% between 2017 and 2018. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are Construction & Mining (6.2%), Education & Health Services (3.1%), and Professional & Business Services (2.8%). Between 2016 and 2017, a decline of 2.6% is expected in the Other Services sector. Continued and future declines are expected in the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities; Financial Activities; and Other Services sectors. The San Jose MSA population is expected to reach approximately 2,016,755 in 2017 an increase of 0.8% from the previous year. The rate of growth for the population will be between 0.7%-0.8% each year through 2020, reaching 2,062,265 in 2020. The labor force will grow by 1.9% in 2017 and then 0.8% in 2018. The unemployment rate is forecasted to be 3.6% in 2017 and will remain at 3.5% through 2020. Housing starts declines are expected in 2017 and 2018 in comparison to the previous few years but may increase in 2019 and 2020 to over 6,000 units. Multifamily units are expected to outnumber single-family units which also occurred in previous years. 9000 San Jose Housing Starts 1150 San Jose Payroll Employment (Thousands) 8000 1100 7000 6000 1050 5000 1000 4000 950 3000 2000 1000 900 850 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 800 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 13% San Jose Unemployment Rate (percent) 250 San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 11% 200 9% 150 7% 100 5% 50 3% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 1% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Center for Business and Policy Research 47
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Quarterly Outlook for San Jose January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 152.9 157.4 159.3 162.8 163.2 166.1 169.6 172.1 174.5 177.2 179.7 182.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 8.7 7.4 8.9 6.7 5.5 6.5 5.7 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.9 Wages and Salaries 116.3 120.0 121.4 124.8 125.3 128.1 131.0 133.6 135.7 137.9 140.1 142.3 Nonwage Income 36.6 37.4 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.0 38.6 38.5 38.8 39.3 39.7 40.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 77.6 79.6 80.3 81.9 81.8 83.1 84.7 85.8 86.8 88.0 89.0 90.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 113.0 115.6 115.0 117.5 117.4 118.7 120.2 122.0 123.5 125.1 126.7 128.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 7.1 4.1 5.9 3.9 2.7 4.5 3.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1025.7 1034.8 1052.2 1059.3 1063.8 1075.7 1086.9 1091.6 1095.4 1099.0 1102.6 1105.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.2 3.7 4.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.2 1.4 1.3 Manufacturing 160.2 161.0 162.1 163.1 162.3 161.6 161.5 162.0 162.7 164.1 164.5 164.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.4-0.4-0.7 0.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 Nonmanufacturing 865.4 873.8 890.1 896.2 901.5 914.1 925.4 929.6 932.8 935.0 938.1 940.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.5 2.3 1.4 1.2 Construction & Mining 41.9 43.2 44.0 44.7 45.7 46.9 48.1 49.4 49.8 50.1 50.8 51.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.4 10.7 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.6 9.4 10.5 9.0 6.9 5.6 3.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 138.7 138.7 139.9 139.9 140.9 140.5 140.4 140.7 140.7 140.7 140.9 140.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.5-0.1 0.1 0.3-0.1 Wholesale Trade 36.2 36.3 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.4 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.2 Retail Trade 87.4 87.2 87.9 87.6 88.1 87.7 87.6 87.7 87.7 87.6 87.7 87.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 15.2 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 Information 72.1 74.0 76.3 77.0 78.3 79.5 79.4 80.3 81.0 81.0 80.9 81.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 13.9 12.9 10.2 8.6 7.4 4.1 4.3 3.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 Financial Activities 35.1 35.1 35.6 35.5 34.9 35.2 35.5 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.4 36.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 2.7 2.3-0.5 0.4-0.5 1.6 3.7 3.1 2.7 0.9 Prof & Business Services 210.6 213.8 218.5 221.1 223.3 229.7 232.3 232.5 233.5 235.0 236.7 238.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 6.4 7.0 6.5 6.0 7.5 6.3 5.1 4.6 2.3 1.9 2.5 Educ & Health Services 153.5 155.0 158.4 160.2 160.4 162.1 167.3 167.8 168.6 169.2 169.8 170.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.6 5.3 5.7 4.5 4.6 5.6 4.7 5.1 4.4 1.5 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 94.3 94.8 96.1 97.7 98.0 99.3 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 3.9 3.4 4.7 3.9 4.7 4.5 2.5 2.3 1.0-0.1 0.0 Other Services 26.7 26.7 27.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.1 2.8 4.6 3.5 3.3 2.0-0.8-0.9-2.5-3.8-3.3 Federal Government 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.6 0.1-0.3-0.2 0.1 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.3-0.7 State & Local Government 82.6 82.5 84.1 82.3 82.4 83.3 84.2 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-1.4 1.2-1.4-0.2 1.0 0.1 3.3 3.4 2.5 1.5 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1971.2 1976.8 1982.5 1988.2 1994.0 1999.8 2003.6 2007.0 2010.5 2014.0 2019.7 2022.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Labor Force (Ths.) 1039.2 1047.0 1050.5 1055.9 1057.9 1063.9 1080.1 1087.0 1089.7 1091.7 1093.5 1095.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.6 1.2 0.7 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 9648 4115 7635 4379 6161 4009 5905 7474 6801 5340 5482 5354 Single-Family 2234 1912 1718 1861 1996 2426 2355 2186 2089 2190 2181 2180 Multifamily 7414 2203 5917 2518 4164 1582 3550 5288 4712 3150 3301 3174 48 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Quarterly Outlook for San Jose January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 185.1 187.3 189.8 192.3 195.0 197.4 199.9 202.3 205.0 207.5 210.4 213.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 Wages and Salaries 144.5 146.5 148.7 150.9 153.0 154.9 157.1 159.1 161.1 163.0 165.3 167.5 Nonwage Income 40.5 40.8 41.1 41.4 42.1 42.5 42.8 43.2 43.9 44.5 45.0 45.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 91.3 92.3 93.3 94.3 95.5 96.5 97.5 98.5 99.7 100.8 101.9 103.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 129.9 131.5 133.0 134.5 136.1 137.7 139.3 140.8 142.3 143.7 145.5 147.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1108.9 1111.4 1114.9 1118.0 1120.3 1121.9 1124.7 1127.0 1128.8 1131.0 1133.1 1135.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Manufacturing 165.3 165.8 166.2 166.7 167.0 167.2 167.5 167.9 168.3 168.5 168.8 169.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 943.6 945.6 948.7 951.3 953.3 954.7 957.2 959.1 960.6 962.5 964.3 966.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Construction & Mining 51.5 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.7 52.0 52.0 51.9 51.9 52.2 52.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 140.3 140.1 140.3 140.2 140.2 140.0 140.2 140.0 139.7 139.3 139.3 139.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7 Wholesale Trade 36.2 36.1 36.3 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.2 36.1 36.2 36.1 Retail Trade 87.1 87.0 87.0 86.9 86.8 86.7 86.8 86.6 86.3 86.0 85.9 85.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.3 Information 81.5 81.5 81.8 82.3 82.0 81.9 82.0 82.4 82.5 82.6 83.0 83.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 Financial Activities 36.3 36.3 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1-0.3-0.6-0.4-0.1 0.0 0.0-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.2 Prof & Business Services 240.5 242.2 243.7 245.0 246.6 247.8 249.0 250.1 250.9 251.6 252.7 254.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 Educ & Health Services 170.9 171.5 172.1 172.7 173.3 173.3 173.7 174.1 174.7 174.9 175.4 176.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.2 101.4 101.7 102.1 102.4 102.6 102.8 103.1 103.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Other Services 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5-1.1-0.7-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.9-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.1 0.3 Federal Government 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 11.0 10.2 9.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-1.9-2.0-2.1-1.9-1.9-1.9-1.9-0.6 13.8 5.2-0.3 State & Local Government 85.7 85.5 85.6 85.7 85.8 86.0 86.0 86.1 86.1 86.1 86.1 86.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0-0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2026.4 2029.7 2035.2 2038.3 2041.8 2044.9 2050.3 2053.3 2056.7 2059.6 2064.8 2067.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Labor Force (Ths.) 1097.8 1100.2 1102.7 1105.5 1108.3 1111.2 1113.5 1115.7 1117.6 1119.4 1121.2 1122.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 5205 5212 5398 5798 6065 6202 6263 6318 6406 6517 6641 6717 Single-Family 2228 2240 2281 2348 2384 2416 2396 2371 2381 2420 2445 2468 Multifamily 2977 2972 3117 3451 3681 3786 3867 3947 4025 4098 4196 4248 Center for Business and Policy Research 49
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Annual Outlook for San Jose January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 107.9 101.3 110.1 121.1 135.6 136.7 146.4 158.1 167.8 178.5 188.6 198.7 209.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1-6.1 8.6 10.0 11.9 0.8 7.2 7.9 6.1 6.4 5.7 5.3 5.2 Wages and Salaries 78.1 72.9 80.5 87.9 93.0 99.3 109.8 120.6 129.5 139.0 147.7 156.0 164.2 Nonwage Income 29.8 28.4 29.6 33.2 42.6 37.3 36.6 37.5 38.2 39.5 41.0 42.7 44.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 60.0 55.6 59.6 64.6 71.3 70.7 74.8 79.8 83.8 88.5 92.8 97.0 101.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 83.9 83.4 92.3 98.5 100.3 103.0 109.3 115.3 119.6 125.9 132.2 138.5 144.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2-0.5 10.7 6.8 1.9 2.7 6.1 5.5 3.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 927.7 871.3 869.0 889.8 923.9 960.7 1001.6 1043.0 1079.5 1100.6 1113.3 1123.5 1132.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8-6.1-0.2 2.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.1 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 Manufacturing 166.7 153.9 151.5 155.3 155.9 155.7 158.7 161.6 161.9 164.0 166.0 167.4 168.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7-7.7-1.5 2.5 0.4-0.1 1.9 1.9 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 761.0 717.4 717.5 734.5 768.0 804.9 843.0 881.4 917.7 936.6 947.3 956.1 963.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8-5.7 0.0 2.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.1 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 Construction & Mining 44.5 34.7 32.4 31.8 34.8 37.5 39.6 43.4 47.5 50.5 51.6 51.8 52.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4-22.1-6.2-1.8 9.5 7.6 5.8 9.6 9.4 6.2 2.2 0.4 0.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 137.7 126.5 125.8 127.9 132.0 135.3 137.7 139.3 140.6 140.7 140.2 140.1 139.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-8.1-0.5 1.6 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.1-0.4-0.1-0.5 Wholesale Trade 39.8 35.7 35.0 34.0 35.0 36.3 36.5 36.4 36.4 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.1 Retail Trade 84.4 78.8 78.9 81.8 84.1 84.8 86.4 87.5 87.8 87.6 87.0 86.7 86.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.5 12.1 12.0 12.1 13.0 14.2 14.9 15.4 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 Information 43.6 43.9 46.5 51.3 54.2 58.7 66.3 74.8 79.4 81.1 81.8 82.1 82.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 0.5 6.0 10.4 5.7 8.3 12.9 12.9 6.1 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.9 Financial Activities 34.3 31.5 31.1 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.7 35.3 35.4 36.4 36.2 36.2 36.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.0-8.0-1.4 4.2 2.9 1.7 2.3 2.0 0.2 2.6-0.3-0.1-0.3 Prof & Business Services 178.3 160.6 160.9 166.7 178.1 191.1 202.9 216.0 229.4 235.9 242.9 248.4 252.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2-9.9 0.3 3.6 6.8 7.3 6.2 6.4 6.2 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 Educ & Health Services 121.4 124.5 127.1 129.7 136.8 143.8 150.0 156.8 164.4 169.5 171.8 173.6 175.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 5.5 5.1 4.3 4.5 4.9 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 78.0 74.9 74.9 77.4 82.5 87.5 91.9 95.7 99.5 100.3 100.7 101.9 103.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7-4.1 0.1 3.3 6.6 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.9 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.1 Other Services 25.4 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.4 26.4 27.1 27.7 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3-3.5-0.7 1.2 0.6 2.8 3.9 2.7 2.0-2.6-1.2-0.8-0.3 Federal Government 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6-1.5-0.6-5.4-2.8 0.8-0.1 0.1 0.7 0.8-1.8-1.9 4.5 State & Local Government 86.9 85.6 83.7 82.5 81.6 81.8 83.5 82.9 83.7 85.4 85.6 86.0 86.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8-1.4-2.3-1.4-1.1 0.2 2.1-0.7 1.1 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1798.0 1822.4 1846.3 1873.9 1902.2 1931.6 1957.0 1979.7 2001.1 2016.8 2032.4 2047.6 2062.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Labor Force (Ths.) 941.6 948.4 954.3 968.1 988.6 1003.3 1025.1 1048.1 1072.2 1092.5 1101.6 1112.2 1120.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 10.7 10.5 9.5 8.0 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 Total Housing Starts 2694 1358 2318 3150 4984 6255 7968 6444 5887 5744 5403 6212 6570 Single-Family 1103 706 886 1077 1525 1876 1960 1931 2241 2160 2274 2392 2429 Multifamily 1591 652 1432 2073 3459 4380 6008 4513 3646 3584 3129 3820 4142 50 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
Stockton MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total non-farm employment is expected to grow 1% between 2016 and 2017 and may decline to 0.8% growth between 2017 and 2018. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (3.3%), Information (3.1%), and Construction & Mining (2.9%) sectors, while declines are expected in the Manufacturing (-4.7%), Professional & Business Services (-3.4%), and Other Services (-0.2%) sectors. Continued and future declines are anticipated for the Other Services and Financial Activities sectors. The population in the Stockton MSA will increase 1.6% in 2017 to approximately 750,200 and will increase by approximately 1.4% each year reaching 782,700 in 2020. Growth each year in the labor force will remain steady over the next few years, with an expected growth rate of 1% between 2016 and 2017. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 8.1% in 2016 to 8.2% in 2017 and will continue to increase each year, reaching 8.9% in 2020. Housing starts for both single and multifamily units are also expected to grow each year between 2017 and 2020, with more single-family units planned than multifamily units. 8000 Stockton Housing Starts 240 Stockton Payroll Employment (Thousands) 7000 230 6000 220 5000 4000 210 200 190 3000 180 2000 170 1000 160 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 150 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Stockton Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 4% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Center for Business and Policy Research 51
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Quarterly Outlook for Stockton January 2017 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.2 6.9 6.1 5.7 4.8 3.9 3.6 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.6 4.3 Wages and Salaries 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 Nonwage Income 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 37.9 38.5 38.9 39.2 39.1 39.4 39.7 39.7 39.9 40.2 40.5 40.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.9 48.7 48.7 49.4 49.5 49.8 49.7 49.7 50.1 50.6 51.1 51.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 5.2 3.3 3.9 3.2 2.1 2.0 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.9 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 214.7 216.3 220.2 222.3 222.5 225.0 226.6 226.2 226.6 227.0 227.5 227.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.9 4.2 4.5 3.6 4.0 2.9 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.7 Manufacturing 18.7 18.5 18.9 19.6 19.8 20.2 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 0.4 0.5 5.7 6.0 9.0 2.7-2.3-4.6-7.0-3.9-3.5 Nonmanufacturing 196.0 197.7 201.3 202.7 202.6 204.7 207.2 207.1 207.6 208.2 208.8 209.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.1 4.6 4.4 3.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 2.5 1.7 0.8 1.1 Construction & Mining 9.9 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.3 11.5 14.9 14.3 7.8 10.0 9.1 6.7 5.3 3.1 1.0 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 56.2 56.7 58.5 58.6 58.1 59.3 60.2 60.5 60.9 61.3 61.7 62.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 3.1 6.4 5.6 3.4 4.5 2.9 3.3 4.9 3.4 2.4 2.4 Wholesale Trade 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.8 Retail Trade 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.2 26.5 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 19.2 19.5 20.8 20.5 20.4 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.9 Information 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5-1.6-4.8-3.0 3.0 2.9 5.6 4.3 3.7 2.9 2.6 3.2 Financial Activities 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-3.0-0.9-2.0-0.4-0.8 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.9 1.5 0.7 Prof & Business Services 18.9 19.4 20.3 20.2 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 8.6 10.6 7.3 7.5 2.2-5.0-6.0-6.4-4.6-2.1-0.7 Educ & Health Services 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.5 36.6 37.2 37.3 37.1 37.3 37.5 37.7 37.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.6 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.1 0.9 1.0 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.6 20.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.5 3.1 4.6 6.6 5.7 9.3 6.7 3.6 2.9-1.3-0.9 Other Services 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 0.1 2.8 4.1 3.5 3.4 0.4-0.6 0.3-0.3 0.0-0.8 Federal Government 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3-6.2-3.3-0.8-0.4-0.4 0.7 0.8 2.2 2.9 0.9-0.2 State & Local Government 36.2 36.4 36.5 37.1 36.9 37.3 37.9 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.2 2.3 4.0 2.1 2.5 3.9 2.3 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 314.8 316.5 317.3 319.1 317.9 319.9 322.0 320.2 321.6 322.7 323.8 324.8 Labor Force (Ths.) 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1548 2031 2018 1698 2042 1548 1626 1944 2154 2433 2577 2697 Single-Family 1546 2016 1941 1369 1308 1548 1626 1769 1907 2113 2219 2320 Multifamily 1 15 77 329 734 0 0 175 247 320 358 377 52 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Quarterly Outlook for Stockton January 2017 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.1 32.5 32.9 33.3 33.7 34.1 34.5 34.9 35.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 Wages and Salaries 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 Nonwage Income 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.7 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.1 41.4 41.6 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.0 43.4 43.8 44.2 44.5 44.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 52.1 52.6 53.1 53.6 54.1 54.6 55.1 55.6 56.1 56.5 57.1 57.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 228.1 228.7 229.3 229.9 230.5 230.9 231.4 231.9 232.4 233.2 233.6 233.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 Manufacturing 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1-2.0-1.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 209.7 210.2 210.8 211.4 211.9 212.3 212.8 213.2 213.7 214.4 214.7 215.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 Construction & Mining 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.2 62.5 62.7 62.9 63.1 63.2 63.3 63.4 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 Wholesale Trade 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 Retail Trade 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.9 Information 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.0 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Financial Activities 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2-0.7-1.0-0.9-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.8-0.6-0.4 Prof & Business Services 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 Educ & Health Services 37.9 38.0 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5-0.1-0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Other Services 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1-0.7-0.5-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.3 0.1 0.5 Federal Government 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-1.5-1.6-1.7-1.5-1.4-1.5-1.4-0.2 14.3 5.7 0.1 State & Local Government 38.0 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 325.7 326.5 327.3 328.3 329.2 330.1 331.0 331.8 332.8 333.7 334.6 335.3 Labor Force (Ths.) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 2805 2855 2922 3010 3054 3102 3139 3170 3215 3235 3274 3297.3 Single-Family 2418 2469 2538 2621 2664 2709 2745 2776 2803 2819 2845 2861.8 Multifamily 387 385 384 389 390 393 394 395 411 416 429 435.4 Center for Business and Policy Research 53
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Annual Outlook for Stockton January 2017 Forecast 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 21.7 21.4 21.8 22.9 23.9 24.6 26.4 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.6 33.1 34.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5-1.3 1.8 4.9 4.4 3.2 7.1 6.5 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.7 4.9 Wages and Salaries 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.3 Nonwage Income 12.4 12.5 13.1 14.0 14.7 15.2 16.5 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.4 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 32.3 31.6 31.7 32.9 34.0 34.9 36.8 38.6 39.5 40.3 41.5 42.9 44.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.9 44.5 45.3 45.8 46.3 45.9 46.8 48.7 49.7 50.9 52.8 54.8 56.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.1-0.9 2.0 4.0 2.0 2.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 210.5 198.8 192.4 192.2 197.1 205.2 210.9 218.4 225.1 227.2 229.0 231.2 233.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5-5.6-3.2-0.1 2.6 4.1 2.8 3.6 3.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 Manufacturing 21.2 18.9 17.6 18.0 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.7 18.7 18.4 18.6 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2-11.2-6.6 2.0-0.7 0.5 3.4 2.4 3.9-4.7-1.5 1.1 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 189.3 179.9 174.8 174.2 179.3 187.3 192.4 199.4 205.4 208.5 210.5 212.5 214.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4-4.9-2.9-0.3 2.9 4.4 2.7 3.7 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 Construction & Mining 11.5 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 8.9 9.0 10.2 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -17.7-26.1-9.4-2.9 3.0 15.3 1.4 13.2 8.4 2.9 3.9 3.1 3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 50.1 47.6 47.5 49.1 51.7 53.9 55.1 57.5 59.5 61.5 62.6 63.2 63.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6-5.1-0.1 3.3 5.4 4.3 2.3 4.3 3.5 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.4 Wholesale Trade 10.4 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 Retail Trade 25.6 23.7 23.7 24.2 24.9 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.8 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 14.1 13.9 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 20.0 21.1 22.5 23.4 23.8 23.9 Information 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3-7.3-4.1-0.3 1.2-1.2-0.8-3.9 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.5 0.9 Financial Activities 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3-5.9-12.7-3.2 0.6 1.7-2.1-2.0 0.6 2.2-0.7-0.5-0.6 Prof & Business Services 17.5 15.9 15.4 15.2 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.7 19.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 19.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.3-9.4-3.1-1.5 9.5 4.7 5.1 7.9-0.3-3.4 0.8 2.5 1.9 Educ & Health Services 33.1 33.3 33.5 33.7 34.0 35.5 35.9 36.5 37.0 37.6 38.0 38.1 38.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 4.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.9 Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 16.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.1 19.6 21.0 21.2 21.2 21.4 21.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-4.5-3.3 1.5 4.1 6.8 4.9 3.1 7.1 1.1-0.1 0.8 1.1 Other Services 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1-5.3-6.1-2.9 3.2 1.1 4.3 2.2 1.7-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.1 Federal Government 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 4.6 5.7-7.1-2.5-10.8-10.1-4.2 0.2 1.5-1.4-1.5 5.0 State & Local Government 36.4 35.8 33.8 32.5 32.2 33.6 35.4 36.5 37.5 38.0 38.0 38.3 38.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1-1.7-5.6-3.8-1.0 4.3 5.6 3.1 2.7 1.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 672.6 679.3 688.4 696.1 701.7 706.4 716.5 727.5 738.8 750.2 760.9 771.7 782.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 304.8 310.1 311.4 311.3 312.1 313.5 313.9 316.9 320.0 323.2 326.9 330.5 334.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 14.9 16.5 16.2 14.4 12.3 10.5 8.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.9 Total Housing Starts 1021 826 853 958 1058 1220 1269 1824 1790 2465 2898 3116 3255 Single-Family 898 826 846 826 1045 1097 1255 1718 1563 2140 2512 2724 2833 Multifamily 123 0 7 132 14 124 14 106 227 325 386 393 423 54 California & Metro Forecast January 2017
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH University of the Pacific A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional professional preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors. With a core liberal arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000 students, Pacific offers professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small learning community. Pacific is California s first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of incorporation from the California Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students on three campuses situated in the Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento. President Pamela A. Eibeck www.pacific.edu Eberhardt School of Business The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration (MBA), Master of Accounting (MAcc), Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Bachelor of Science in Accounting, and Minors in Management, Business Administration, and Information Systems to nearly 700 students. With an emphasis on interactive classes and studentfaculty engagement, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders through a learning process that is personal, relevant, and professional. In addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates, the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated its commitment to community service and regional economic development through a variety of outreach programs and activities including the Center for Business and Policy Research, Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship, Institute for Family Business, and Westgate Center for Management Development. Dean David Dauwalder www.pacific.edu/business Center for Business and Policy Research The Center for Business and Policy Research, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces quarterly economic forecasts of California and 8 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno to the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center conducts policy and planning studies on topics such as water, transportation, housing, and economic development for public and private clients throughout Northern California. Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D. Director, Center for Business and Policy Research Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S., University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY) Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research and Associate Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific. Jeff s areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and environmental economics including work on the economic impacts of the Endangered Species Act, climate change, and regulation on land use, property values and employment growth. His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals and received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times Magazine, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS. Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY). UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business Sacramento Office: 3200 5th Avenue Sacramento, CA 95817 Stockton Office: 3601 Pacific Avenue Stockton, CA 95211 Pacific.edu/CBPR