DEC. 10, 2012 INVESTOR EDUCATION GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Asset Class Review OVERVIEW AUTHOR Gold DESCRIPTION. Gold is a precious yellow metallic element, not subject to oxidation or corrosion, with 79 protons in its nucleus and an atomic weight of 196.967. One troy ounce of gold equals 1.0941 avoirdupois ounces. The first gold coins are believed to have been minted approximately 2,700 years ago, and since then, gold has for varying lengths of time functioned alongside or instead of various other forms of currency as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. For example, throughout its 1,100-year history, the Byzantine Empire, with Constantinople as its capital, maintained a monetary economy based on gold. Its gold coin, weighing approximately 4.5 grams and called the bezant (also known as the solidus, or nomisma) circulated freely within and outside the Byzantine Empire for 645 years, from 324 to 969 A.D. CHOICES. Gold can be purchased and sold in a variety of forms, including: (i) recently minted legal tender and commemorative coins; (ii) previously issued coins and medals of numismatic value; (iii) gold bars and bullion; (iv) shares of gold mining companies; (v) exchangetraded funds; (vi) gold futures and options; (vii) gold trust receipts, structured notes, and gold-backed bonds; (viii) gold jewelry and objects of art; and in a related but different category, (ix) other precious metals such as silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium. How and where gold is owned are often determined by the investor s motivations, concerns, amount to invest, objectives, and personal circumstances. DAVID M. DARST, CFA Chief Investment Strategist 212-296-6224 David.Darst@mssb.com Note: The Art of Asset Allocation, 2nd Edition, by David M. Darst (McGraw Hill, 2008).
Gold Advantages 1. Historically, gold has tended to retain its purchasing power over long periods of time compared to the cost of fundamental human needs such as food, shelter, and clothing. Disadvantages 1. Although gold as an asset may be considered a conservative investment, some segments of the gold market are considered to include speculative and momentum-based traders, promoters, conspiracy theorists, and dogmatic participants whose views may be perceived as lacking objectivity. 2. For centuries, the intrinsic value of gold has been widely accepted due to its rarity, beauty, durability, malleability, ductility, portability, divisibility, and anonymity. 2. Physical gold has no yield, may in some geographies trade in relatively low-volume and somewhat illiquid markets, is cumbersome to transport in large quantities, may incur costs of assay, custody, taxation, segregation, and insurance, and may be difficult to access in unsettled conditions. 3. Gold has generally exhibited negative or very low correlations of returns with almost all other asset classes. 3. Due to their effectively embedded option component linked to a potential rise in gold prices, gold mining shares have substantially leveraged exposure to gold-price movements, may at times be expensively valued, and may sometimes be difficult to assess by conventional methods understood by issuers, investors, and intermediaries, leading to unforeseen and possibly unfavorable consequences. 4. During many previous periods of excessive inflation, financial markets turmoil, deflationary shock, monetary system failure, and/or geographical instability, gold has been viewed as a form of insurance protection and refuge. 4. For substantial intervals during eras of financial and geopolitical stability, gold prices may move within a mean-reverting band, influenced by: (i) the level of real interest rates; (ii) the demand for jewelry, industrial uses, and identified bar hoarding; and (iii) sources of supply, including new discoveries, production, forward sales and hedging by gold-mining companies, gold scrap recycling, and central bank selling and gold lending activity. 5. Unlike many managed-paper currency systems, gold has a slowly changing and relatively inelastic supply; gold is considered to be the only monetary asset that is not the liability of another party. 5. Gold may be subject to governmental influence and/or confiscation through the sealing of safety deposit boxes and other measures, the declaration of gold payment clauses as unenforceable, and the arbitrary fixing of gold prices. Source: The Art of Asset Allocation, 2nd Edition, by David M. Darst (McGraw-Hill, 2008); Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Investment Strategy. 2 MORGAN STANLEY SMITH BARNEY LLC Dec. 10, 2012 Please refer to important information, disclosures and qualifications at the end of this material.
Handy & Harman Gold Bullion Spot Price Index Price Performance 1990 2012YTD (1) (Price in US Dollars) 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Note: (1) Data are as of Nov. 30, 2012. Source: Bloomberg. 3 MORGAN STANLEY SMITH BARNEY LLC Dec. 10, 2012 Please refer to important information, disclosures and qualifications at the end of this material.
Handy & Harman Gold Bullion Spot Price Index Monthly and Annual Returns (%) 1990 2012YTD (1) YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2012 11.08 1.49-6.07-0.68-5.65 2.60 1.47 1.63 7.73-3.21 0.41 9.94 2011-5.59 6.33 1.98 6.71 0.07-2.02 8.17 11.36-10.67 6.30 1.39-10.08 11.70 2010-1.95 2.76 0.65 5.71 2.40 3.02-6.03 6.59 4.90 3.04 2.73 1.59 27.77 2009 5.72 3.53-3.73-3.63 10.44-4.20 0.48 1.01 4.98 4.44 13.05-6.44 26.47 2008 10.73 5.23-3.91-6.70 1.69 5.02-1.32-9.26 6.18-17.38 11.19 7.05 4.32 2007 2.93 2.11-0.37 2.30-2.64-1.30 2.31 0.98 10.57 6.26-0.76 6.41 31.92 2006 10.22-2.24 4.68 10.65 1.40-6.05 3.10-1.42-3.89 0.75 7.11-2.27 22.48 2005-3.09 3.15-1.83 1.92-4.88 5.47-1.85 0.99 9.23-0.53 5.29 4.11 18.46 2004-4.07-0.98 7.04-8.31 1.22 0.65-1.11 4.05 2.06 2.38 6.54-3.93 4.54 2003 6.58-5.46-3.63 0.57 7.32-4.26 2.53 5.88 3.30-0.45 2.52 5.23 20.85 2002 2.10 5.15 1.53 2.26 5.97-2.48-4.35 2.68 3.48-2.10 0.30 8.48 24.70 2001-2.33 0.83-3.37 2.11 1.65 1.16-1.74 2.67 7.36-4.90-1.17 0.36 2.10 2000-2.39 3.65-5.76-0.61-1.02 5.84-3.96 0.09-1.21-3.34 1.74 0.63-6.70 1999-1.14 0.58-2.65 2.56-6.28-2.83-2.07-0.31 17.35 0.03-2.59-0.38 0.54 1998 6.20-2.44 1.21 3.22-5.50 0.92-2.51-4.17 6.16-0.53 0.82-2.04 0.57 1997-6.37 3.79-2.65-2.56 1.60-3.20-2.45-0.31 2.07-6.23-4.62-3.35-22.21 1996 4.81-1.21-1.07-1.27-0.19-2.19 0.86 0.30-1.93 0.13-1.71-1.07-4.64 1995-1.96 0.40 4.14 1.72-3.62 0.72-0.96-0.26 0.43-0.35 1.35-0.22 1.19 1994-3.54 0.97 2.00-3.28-2.35 5.62-1.09 0.46 2.36-2.79-0.20-0.18-2.39 1993-0.86-0.86 3.11 4.88 6.53 0.26 6.16-7.52-4.32 3.94 0.38 5.62 17.54 1992 0.25-0.28-3.20-1.59 0.34 1.75 4.21-4.71 2.35-2.79-1.49-0.27-5.63 1991-6.81-0.90-1.94 0.59 0.74 2.21-1.49-4.26 2.16 0.72 2.70-3.79-10.07 1990 3.02-1.77-9.61-0.20-1.28-2.99 5.71 4.15 5.33-7.08 1.41 2.05-2.52 Notes: (1) Data are as of Nov. 30, 2012. (2) Full Year Data for 2012 are as of Nov. 30, 2012. Source: Bloomberg. FULL YEAR (2) The indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees, or sales charges, which would lower performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Handy & Harman Gold Bullion Spot Price Index tracks the price of gold in US dollars per troy ounce and has been reported daily since January 1970. Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Global Investment Committee Asset Class Reviews 1. Managed Futures 10/31/11 2. US Equity 11/28/11 3. US Cash and Cash Equivalents 1/3/12 4. Master Limited Partnerships 1/23/12 5. Publicly Traded Real Estate Shares and REITs 2/27/12 6. High Yield Fixed Income 3/26/12 7. US Investment Grade Fixed Income 4/23/12 8. Inflation-Indexed Securities 5/21/12 9. Emerging Markets Fixed Income 6/25/12 10. Hedge Funds 7/30/12 11. Emerging Markets Equity 8/27/12 12. Commodities 9/24/12 13. Non-US Equity 10/22/12 14. Non-US Fixed Income 11/26/12 15. Gold 12/10/12 4 MORGAN STANLEY SMITH BARNEY LLC Dec. 10, 2012 Please refer to important information, disclosures and qualifications at the end of this material.
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