Fourth Quarter 2018 Results Presentation. January 31, 2019

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Transcription:

Fourth Quarter 2018 Results Presentation January 31, 2019 1

Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, including under 2019 Outlook. We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and by the use of forward-looking words such as expect, expectation, believe, anticipate, may, could, intend, belief, plan, estimate, target, predict, likely, will, continue, should, forecast, outlook or similar terminology. These statements are based on current estimates and assumptions made by us in light of our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that we believe are appropriate and reasonable under the circumstances, but there can be no assurance that such estimates and assumptions will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding the future business plans, earnings and performance of Yum China, statements regarding the revitalization of Pizza Hut, anticipated effects of population and macroeconomic trends, the capital structure and effective tax rate of Yum China, the anticipated effects of our digital and delivery capabilities on growth, and beliefs regarding the long-term drivers of Yum China s business. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance and are inherently subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and could cause our actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated by those statements. We cannot assure you that any of our expectations, estimates or assumptions will be achieved. The forward-looking statements included in this presentation are only made as of the date of this presentation, and we disclaim any obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law. Numerous factors could cause our actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, including, without limitation: whether we are able to achieve development goals at the times and in the amounts currently anticipated, if at all, the success of our marketing campaigns and product innovation, our ability to maintain food safety and quality control systems, our ability to control costs and expenses, including tax costs, as well as changes in political, economic and regulatory conditions in China. In addition, other risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently believe to be immaterial could affect the accuracy of any such forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements should be evaluated with the understanding of their inherent uncertainty. You should consult our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (including the information set forth under the captions Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements in our Annual Report on Form 10-K) for additional detail about factors that could affect our financial and other results. This presentation includes certain non-gaap financial measures. Reconciliation of these non-gaap financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in this presentation where indicated. You are urged to consider carefully the comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations. 2

Contents Business Highlights Financial Results 3

Yum China by the Numbers a Powerful Business #1 Western QSR & CDR brands in China NYSE listed with $12.7bn market cap #397 Fortune 500 2018 8,400+ stores in 1,200+ cities in China 160mn+ members of KFC 50mn+ members of Pizza Hut #1 restaurant operator in digital & delivery in China ~450,000 employees in China Strong management Note: Store and member counts as of December 31, 2018; Market cap as of the close of December 31, 2018; Fortune 500 ranking in terms of sales

Long-term YUMC Strategy: Dynamic Brands Built on a Sustainable Platform for Growth SUSTAINABLE PLATFORM FOR GROWTH YUMC PORTFOLIO OF BRANDS: ENABLED BY 3D s ACROSS BRANDS: DIGITAL DATA DELIVERY CROSS FUNCTIONAL CAPABILITIES: HR Finance Supply Chain Legal Operation IT PA Development Marketing FOUNDER s MENTALITY CULTURE Potential to grow to 20,000 stores over the long term, >2x today s store base 5

2018 Q4: Strong Sales and Profit Growth Sales & Profit Strong system sales growth of 6%, ninth consecutive quarter of positive growth since spin off, led by the accelerated new store openings and a robust performance at KFC - KFC: 3% same-store sales growth and 9% system sales growth - Pizza Hut: 1% same-store traffic growth although sales remained soft Increase in operating profit driven by strong sales growth and diligent cost controls Stores Digital Aggressively opened 257 new restaurants in Q4, total 819 for the full year, cementing our market position and laying a solid foundation for growth. Over 180 million members for KFC and Pizza Hut combined Our digital and delivery capabilities extend the runway for growth Capital Returned $191 million to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and cash dividends 6

KFC Value Offerings Continue to Drive Sales Traditional Festival Crazy Thursday Online Campaign 7

Innovation in Dayparts and Product Categories Continues to Drive SSSG Breakfast Coffee Dessert Delivery 8

Pizza Hut Focuses on Innovation and Smart Value Value for Money Food Innovation Family Privilege

Keep Driving 4 Levers of Revitalization Plan Fix fundamentals Drive digital Optimize delivery Enhance asset portfolio 10

Recognition of Our People First HR Approach Yum China Certified Top Employer China 2019 by the Top Employers Institute Yum China among the first Chinese companies named to 2019 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index 11

Contents Business Highlights Financial Results 12

Yum China Reported 6% System Sales Growth in Q4 Stores Sales Growth 1 Profit Margin Net Income & EPS Gross new stores 691 258 257 819 System sales growth (%) 9% 8% 6% 5% Restaurant Margin (%) 16.7% 15.7% 11.6% 11.5% Net Income ($ mn) 74 398 708-107 Total stores 7,562 7,983 8,484 Same-store sales growth (%) 5% 4% 2% 1% Operating Profit ($ mn) 778 47 84 941 Diluted EPS ($) -0.28 0.19 1.00 1.79 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 2016 2017 2018 13

Operating Profit Up by 77% in Q4 and 21% in Operating Profit ($ mn) 2017 2018 778 728 941 Key factors for Q4 18 year-over-year movement Same-store sales leverage Net new unit growth G&A expense optimization 47 84 YoY +77% +21% YoY ex F/X +84% +16% Wage and commodity inflation Product upgrade & promotion costs Daojia impairment Foreign exchange impact Note: 2017 and 2018 Operating Profit are reported numbers. See the appendix for a reconciliation to the adjusted measures. 14

KFC Achieved 3% SSSG & 9% System Sales Growth in Q4 Stores Sales Growth 1 (%) Restaurant Margin (%) Operating Profit ($ mn) 2 New stores 139 155 408 566 System sales growth 11% 9% 9% 7% 18.0% 17.9% +19% +8% YoY ex FX 802 895 Total stores Same-store sales growth 14.3% 13.9% 5,224 5,488 5,910 6% 3% 5% 2% 119 136 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 2 Segment Operating Profit before unallocated shared service costs. 2016 2017 2018 15

Pizza Hut Reduced Operating Loss in Q4 Stores Sales Growth 1 (%) Restaurant Margin (%) Operating Profit ($ mn) 2 New stores 180 157 System sales growth 6% 7% 13.9% +32% -41% YoY ex FX 157 60 51-2% -1% 10.3% 98 Total stores 2,195 2,240 2,081 Same-store sales growth 1% 1% 6.4% 4.9% 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE -4% -5% -16-9 1 Stated in constant currency basis. 2 Segment Operating Profit before unallocated shared service costs. 2016 2017 2018 16

Digital KPIs Continue to Improve Members Member Sales Digital Payment % 60+ 110+ 160+ 20% 38% 48% 39% 69% 85% 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 20+ 35+ 50+ 6% 36% 42% 55% 79% 90% 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 17

Delivery Continues to Grow Delivery Sales Delivery Store Coverage Delivery City Coverage 11% 13% 16% 54% 65% 73% 56% 78% 92% 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 18% 22% 25% 88% 97% 93% 70% 87% 96% 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Note: Delivery as % of Company sales exclude KFC Wuxi for all period for comparability 18

Accelerate New Store Openings with Healthy Return Lower Tier Penetration Store Mix in Tier 3-6 All Stores 2018 New Stores Drive New Unit Return 1 Remodel KFC Pizza Hut Others 931 54% 61% Tier 1-2 Tier 3-6 YUMC: 788 144 225 40% 43% KFC ~2 yrs ~2 yrs Pizza Hut ~3 yrs <4 yrs 644 705 KFC Pizza Hut 2017 2018 1 Refers to Average Pre-tax Cash Payback Period; Includes units opened between October 2016 and September 2017, after deduction of 3% license fee. 19

Strong Cash Flow Generation Funds Growth and Shareholder Returns Net cash from operating activities $1.33 bn Jan-Dec 2018 Dividends 2018 Q4: $46 mn 2018 : $161 mn Share Repurchases 2018 Q4: $145 mn 2018 : $312 mn Free cash flow $863 mn Jan-Dec 2018 Quarterly Cash Dividend ($) 0.10 0.12 Total Program ($ mn) 1,400 440 312 18 850 128 960 Cash and short-term investments $1.39 bn 17'Q4-18'Q3 18'Q4-19'Q1 17 550 Authorization Used Remaining As of Dec 31 2018 Note: Free cash flow is net operating cash flow less capital spending of $470 million 20

Reporting Change in 2019 US GAAP new lease standard effective from Jan 1, 2019 Material amount of lease liabilities and Right of Use (ROU) assets will be added to the balance sheet for leases with fixed payment component and with terms over 12 months ~$2.0 billion increase in ROU lease asset ~$2.2 billion increase in lease liability No material change on recognition of expense on income statement, except for additional impairment of ROU assets As permitted by US GAAP, historical financial statements will not be recast. Cumulative effect adjustments to be made in Q1 Additional impairment test in Q1 2019 21

Outlook 2019 Financial Targets 600-650 gross new stores $450-500 million Capex Effective Tax Rate below 28% Long Term Financial Targets High single digit system sales growth ex FX ~17% restaurant margin Double digit operating profit growth ex FX 22

Appendix: Reconciliation of Reported Results to Non-GAAP Measures Detail of Special Items Quarter Ended Year Ended 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 Daojia impairment (b) $ (12) $ $ (12) $ Gain from re-measurement of equity interest upon acquisition (c) 98 Income from the reversal of contingent consideration (d) 3 Special Items, Operating Profit (12) 86 3 Tax effect on Special Items (e) 3 (21) Impact from the Tax Act (f) 36 (164) 36 (164) Special Items, net income including noncontrolling interests 27 (164) 101 (161) Special Items, net income noncontrolling interests (1) (1) Special Items, Net Income Yum China Holdings, Inc. $ 28 $ (164) $ 102 $ (161) Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding 389 400 395 398 Special Items Diluted Earnings Per Common Share $ 0.07 $ (0.41) $ 0.26 $ (0.40) Reconciliation of Operating Profit to Adjusted Operating Profit Operating Profit $ 84 $ 47 $ 941 $ 778 Special Items, Operating Profit (12) 86 3 Adjusted Operating Profit $ 96 $ 47 $ 855 $ 775 Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted Net Income (Loss) Net Income (Loss) Yum China Holdings, Inc. $ 74 $ (107) $ 708 $ 398 Special Items, Net Income Yum China Holdings, Inc. 28 (164) 102 (161) Adjusted Net Income Yum China Holdings, Inc. $ 46 $ 57 $ 606 $ 559 Reconciliation of EPS to Adjusted EPS Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share $ 0.19 $ (0.28) $ 1.79 $ 1.00 Special Items Diluted Earnings Per Common Share 0.07 (0.41) 0.26 (0.40) Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Common Share $ 0.12 $ 0.14 $ 1.53 $ 1.40 Reconciliation of Effective Tax Rate to Adjusted Effective Tax Rate Effective tax rate (20.1)% 285.2 % 22.6 % 47.2 % Impact on effective tax rate as a result of Special Items (53.6)% 293.3 % (3.9)% 20.3 % Adjusted effective tax rate 33.5 % (8.2)% 26.5 % 26.9 % (a) Amounts presented as of and for the quarter and year to date ended December 31, 2018 are unaudited. (b) During the year ended December 31, 2018, we recorded an impairment charge of $12 million on intangible assets of the Daojia business. It was included in Closures and impairment expenses in our Consolidated Statement of Income, but was not allocated to any segment for performance reporting purposes. We recorded tax benefit of $3 million associated with the impairment and allocated $1 million of the after-tax impairment charge to noncontrolling interests. (c) As a result of the acquisition of Wuxi KFC in the first quarter of 2018, the Company recognized a gain of $98 million from the re-measurement of our previously held 47% equity interest at fair value, which was not allocated to any segment for performance reporting purposes. (d) During the year ended December 31, 2017, we recognized income from the reversal of contingent consideration previously recorded for a business combination as the likelihood of making payment became remote. (e) The tax expense was determined based upon the nature, as well as the jurisdiction, of each Special Item at the applicable tax rate. (f) The Company incurred an estimated one-time income tax charge of $164 million in the fourth quarter of 2017, as a result of the Tax Act, due to the transition tax on deemed repatriation of accumulated undistributed earnings of foreign subsidiaries, and additional tax related to the revaluation of certain deferred tax assets. In the fourth quarter of 2018, we recognized tax benefit of $36 million as a result of adjusting the provisional amount of transition tax previously recorded. 23