Company Research Sept 4, 2013 China Ruifeng(527.HK) Transforming into a wind farm operator China Ruifeng Renewable Energy Hldg. Ltd. (527.hk) is currently transforming into a wind farm operator, after acquiring Hongsong in January 2013 and disposing its loss-making diodes business in May 2013. In 1H13, wind farm operation not only helped the profit turnaround but also accounted for 38% of total revenue and 48% of net profit. Hongsong helped profit turnaround in 1H13. China Ruifeng announced its 1H13 interim result on 2 Sept 2013. With less than 6 months contribution, Hongsong contributed Rmb 161.4m in revenue and Rmb 23.9m in net profit, pushing China Ruifeng to grow 39.4% yoy in revenue to Rmb423m and 227.5% yoy in net profit to RMB50m in 1H13. Compared with a net loss of Rmb 182m in 2H12, this was a significant turnaround in profitability. Gross margin improved from minus 8% in 2H12 to 26% in 1H13. Wind power sector sees early signs of recovery. Despite the declines in the past few years, newly installed capacility stabilized at a growth of -0.6% but growth in wind power production accelerated to 38% in the first 7 months of 2013. The recovery was mainly driven by accelerated investment in power grid construction as a result of a series of wind power supporting policies introduced by the government. Wind farms strategically located at Hebei and Inner Mongolia with abundant wind resources. Backed by the acquisition of controlling stakes in Hongsong and Langcheng, China Ruifeng now owns a combined installation capacity of 350 MW in Hebei and Inner Mongolia. Their wind farms are located at Chengde district of Hebei Province and MengDong district of Inner Mongolia respectively. Both areas are rich in wind resources and close to the Northern China electricity load center and located within the North China Power Grid. Not Rated Power & New Energy Analyst Ethane Cheng SFC CE No.: AVL287 852-28998329 ethane.cheng@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Yahoo! Finance Key Data Price(HK$) 2.35 Shares Outstanding(m)* 1,033 Market Cap. (HK$ m)* 2,428 Free float (%) 47.1 Average Daily Turnover HK$10m 52 Week Range 1.45/2.44 Controlling Shareholder Li Baosheng, Zhang Zhi Xiang (52.9%) BVPS (Rmb) 0.37 Debt ratio (%) 69.4 Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Turnover (Rmb m) 388 426 804 750 583 Turnover Growth (%) 9.9 88.9-6.7-22.3 Net Profit (Rmb m) 19 13-574 92-167 Net Profit Growth (%) -32.8-4661.9-116.0-282.4 EPS (Rmb) 0.05 0.03-0.92 0.11-0.18 P/E (x) 40.2 59.9-2.1 16.8-10.3 P/B (x) 2.80 2.41 4.60 4.41 5.04 DPS(Rmb) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Source: For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1
国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 公司报告中国瑞风 (527.HK) 2013 年 9 月 4 日 中国瑞风 (527.HK) 转型中之风电场运营商 中国瑞风新能源控股有限公司 (527.hk) 自 2013 年 1 月收购红松风电 2013 年 5 月出售其亏损之二极管业务, 目前正转型为一间风电场运营商 红松收购后, 风电场运营业务将有望成为公司未来之核心盈利及现金流贡献来源 红松风电场之运营协助公司 1H13 扭亏为盈 中国瑞风于 2013 年 9 月 2 日公布 2013 年上半年中期业绩 于少于 6 个月的贡献下, 红松风电之营运为公司带来 1.6 亿人民币之收入及 2390 万之利润, 推动公司收入同比上升 39.4% 至人民币 4.23 亿, 净利润跃升至人民币 5000 万, 同比增长 227.5% 对比 2012 年下半年 1.82 亿人民币之净亏损, 期内公司盈利状况大幅扭转 毛利率自 2H12 之 -8% 改善至 1H13 之 26% 分析师 郑智豪证监会中央编号 :AVL287 852-28998329 ethane.cheng@guosen.com.hk 股价表现 未评级 电力新能源 风电行业出现早期复苏迹象 在 2013 年一系列风电产业的扶持政策支持下,2013 年上半年电网建设步伐有所加快, 推动新增装机容量及风力发电产量温和复苏 于河北及内蒙古的丰富风电资源 中国瑞风凭借对红松及朗诚风电控股权之收购 获得了位于河北及内蒙古共 350MW 的装机容量 它们分别位于河北省承德地区及 内蒙古蒙东地区, 风能资源均非常丰富, 并靠近华北地区用电负荷中心及位于华 北电网区内 盈利预测 截至 31/12 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 营业额 (Rmb m) 388 426 804 750 583 增长 (Y/Y,%) 9.9 88.9-6.7-22.3 净利润 (Rmb m) 19 13-574 92-167 资料来源 : 雅虎财经 Key Data 收盘价 ( 港币 $) 2.35 流通股本 ( 百万 )* 487 总市值 ( 港币 $ 百万 )* 2,428 流通量 (%) 47.1 日均成交额 港币 1,000 万 52 周最高 / 最低 1.45/2.44 主要控股股东 李保胜, 张志祥 (52.9%) 每股净资产 (Rmb) 0.37 负债率 (%) 69.4 增长 (Y/Y,%) -32.8-4661.9-116.0-282.4 每股收益 (Rmb) 0.05 0.03-0.92 0.11-0.18 市盈率 (x) 40.2 59.9-2.1 16.8-10.3 市净率 (x) 2.80 2.41 4.60 4.41 5.04 每股派息 (Rmb) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 )
Sept 4, 2013 HK & China 1 Transforming into a wind farm operator China Ruifeng Renewable Energy Hldg. Ltd. (527.hk) is currently transforming into a wind farm operator. The company subscribed 47.3% of the enlarged share capital of Hebei Hongsong Wind Power Co., Ltd. ( Hongsong ) for RMB645m in January 2013 (Together with the 5.77% share capital of Hongsong originally held, the Group now holds an aggregatee of approximately 50.3% issued share capital in Hongsong) and disposed of its loss-making diode manufacturing business for HK$ 220m in May 2013. Now, the company is principally engaged in wind farm operation, construction and consultation of power grid and transformer project, manufacturing, processing and sales of wind turbine blades. Exhibit 1:Business restructuring of China Ruifeng 1.1 Hongsong helped profit turnaround in 1H13 China Ruifeng announced its 1H13 interim result on 2 Sept 2013. With less than 6 months contribution, Hongsong contributed Rmb 161.4m in revenue and Rmb 23.9m in net profit, pushing China Ruifeng to grow 39.4% yoy in revenue to Rmb423m and 227.5% yoy in net profit to RMB50m in 1H13. Compared with a net loss of Rmb 182m in 2H12, this was a significant turnaround in profitability. Gross margin improved from minus 8% in 2H12 to 26% in 1H13. 3
Exhibit 2:Historical financial performance 1,400 3 1,200 1,000 800 25% 2 600 400 200 0 15% 1 5% -200-400 -600 1H 09A 2H 09A 1H10A 2H10A 1H11A 2H11A 1H12A 2H12A 1H13A -5% -800-1 Net Profit (Rmb m, LHS) Revenue (Rmb m, LHS) Gross profit (Rmb m, LHS) Gross Margin (%, RHS) 1.2 Significant changes in revenue and profit mix The acquisition of Hongsong has also significantly changed China Ruifeng revenue and profit mix to the high growth wind farm operation. In 2H12, revenue mix of China Ruifeng s four main business segments (Production of diodes, Construction contracts, Production of wind turbine blades and Wind farm operation) was 55:44:1:0. In 1H13, it had changed to 31:31:0:38. Wind farm operation has also become the most dominant earnings contributor. In terms of segment profit, profit mix of the four main businesses was 12:4:-1:96 in 1H13 compared with 3:73:10:11 in 2H12. With the disposal of the diode manufacturing business in 1H13, revenue and profit mix will be more geared to wind farm operation starting in 2H13. Exhibit 3:Segment revenue proportion 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7% 7% 1% 38% 48% 44% 4 44% 31% 53% 49% 52% 55% 31% 1H11A 2H11A 1H12A 2H12A 1H13A Production of diodes Production of wind turbine blades Construction contracts Wind farm operation 4
Exhibit 4:Segment profit proportion 10 4. 11.4% 8 0.3% 10. 6 4 16.7% 4.5% 62.7% 80.1% 72.9% 95.8% 2-2 26.5% 3.9% 11.6% 11. 16.8% 12.2% -1.7% -3.1% 2.5% -0.9% 1H11A 2H11A 1H12A 2H12A 1H13A Production of diodes Production of wind turbine blades Un-allocated Construction contracts Wind farm operation 1.3 Margin moving higher towards that of Hongsong In 1H13, segment profit margin of China Ruifeng improved to 26.7% compared with 17.9% in 1H12 and -5.4% in 2H12. The significant improvement was mainly a result of the high margin earned by the newly acquired Hongsong wind farm. In 1H13, segment profit margin for wind farm operation was 67.1%, far higher than other segments (10.4% for Production of diodes, 3.4% for Construction contracts and for Production of wind turbine blades). With rising revenue and profit contribution from wind farm operation, profit margin will be gradually moving towards a level similar to what is earning by Hongsong in the coming future. Exhibit 5:Segment profit margin (%) 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-10 1H11A 2H11A 1H12A 2H12A 1H13A Production of diodes Production of wind turbine blades Total Construction contracts Wind farm operation 5
2 Wind power sector sees early signs of recovery Having transformed into primarily a wind farm company, performance of China Ruifeng will be driven by fundamentals of the wind farm sector going forward. 2.1 Negative growth in the past few years In China, newly installed wind power capacity continued to decline since 2010 and recorded negative growth of 7% in 2011 and 26% in 2012. The declines were mainly a result of lower wind power development limited by grid connectivity constraint. Exhibit 6:Annual newly installed wind power capacity in China 20 20 18 16 15 14 12 10 10 8 5 6 4 2 0-5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Newly Installed Capacity (GW) Newly Installed Capacity YoY (%) Source: Chinese Wind Energy Association, China s wind power resources are unevenly distributed and largely located in northern, northwestern and northeastern regions. According to the evaluation of wind resources in selected provinces in the PRC by the International Energy Agency and the Energy Research Institute in 2011, regions with the greatest potential of wind resources are Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu and Hebei. In terms of wind power production, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Liaoning are developed areas. 6
Exhibit 7:Wind resources distribution of seven 100 MW wind power bases Source: NEA, The renewable energy industrial development report 2010, Guosen Securities (HK) However, the main power demand comes from eastern coastal regions. This big mismatch between geographic distribution of wind power resources and power consumption has prevented numerous wind farms from realizing their full potential: the different paces of construction of wind farms and the construction of grid infrastructure, the relatively low local demand for power and lack of energy source flexibility. 2.2 Government introduces supportive policies To solve the existing wind curtailment problems and support wind power development, the central government has established a series of supportive policies in 2013. The objectives are to target a better implementation of the existing renewable energy regulations (such as a mandate that grids give precedence to renewable over thermal plants), encourage investment of grid infrastructure and strengthen renewable energy information management. List of wind power supportive policies in 2013 The National Energy Administration issued The notice of improving wind power grid connection and consumption in 2013 " on 16 Feb, 2013, which requires the country to pay more attention on wind power consumption, strengthen grid infrastructure construction and service for wind power grid connection. The State Council issued The decision on cancellation and decentralization of administrative approval power for a number of projects on 15 May 2013, which requires listing approval authority of private investment on wind power projects (total installed capacity of 50,000 kilowatts or more, 330 kv and below voltage AC grid projects and non-cross-border, inter-provincial 500kV level AC grid projects 7
under the central government plan) to decentralize from the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) to local government investment authorities; The National Energy Administration approved the establishment of the National Renewable Energy Information Administration Center on 17 June 2013. Its responsibility is to monitor and evaluate the actual situation and development plan of construction, grid connection and equipment manufacturing, in order to provide data and technical support for the government, renewable energy investors, grid operators and equipment manufacturers. On the back of these wind power supportive policies, investment in power grid construction accelerated in 1H13. In the first 7 months of 2013, completed investment in power grid construction grow 16.6% yoy, as compared to an annual growth of 0.3% in 2012. Newly installed capacity stabilized at a growth of -0.6% yoy and wind power production growth speed up to 38% yoy. The wind power sector is on track to a modest recovery in 2013. Exhibit 8:Completed investment in power grid construction: YTD: YoY (%) 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1 2010-10 2010-12 2011-02 2011-04 2011-06 2011-08 2011-10 2011-12 2012-02 2012-04 2012-06 2012-08 2012-10 2012-12 2013-02 2013-04 2013-06 -15% Source: Wind, 8
Exhibit 9:Monthly newly installed capacity and production of wind power in China 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010/2/1 2010/4/1 2010/6/1 2010/8/1 2010/10/1 2010/12/1 2011/2/1 2011/4/1 2011/6/1 2011/8/1 2011/10/1 2011/12/1 2012/2/1 2012/4/1 2012/6/1 2012/8/1 2012/10/1 2012/12/1 2013/2/1 2013/4/1 2013/6/1 120 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 Production:YTD:YoY (LHS,%) Newly Installed Capacity:YTD:YoY (RHS,%) Source: CEC, Wind, 9
3. Abundant wind resources in Hebei and Inner Mongolia Backed by the acquisition of controlling stake of Hongsong and Langcheng, China Ruifeng now owns abundant wind resources in Hebei and Inner Mongolia. Their wind farms are located at Chengde district of Hebei Province and MengDong district of Inner Mongolia respectively. Both areas are rich in wind resources and close to the Northern China electricity load center and located within the North China Power Grid. Hongsong Wind Farm Upon completion of the subscription on 6 January 2013, together with the 27,727,754 shares of Hongsong owned by Beichen Hightech prior to the capital injection, China Ruifeng, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, holds approximately 50.3% share capital of Hongsong. The wind farm operated by Hongsong is located in Hongsongwa area, Chengde district of Hebei Province, with a current and maximum installation capacity of 348.9MW and 596.4MW respectively. Hongsong wind farm supplies electricity to the power grid of Jibei Electric Power Company Limited (a wholly-owned subsidiary of State Grid Corporation of China). Average annual utilization hours in Hongsong wind farm was around 2300 hours in previous years. On-grid tariff and average cost of wind power generated by Hongsong wind farm are Rmb 0.54/kWh and Rmb 0.28-0.3/kWh respectively. On 24 January 2013, Hongsong Phase 9 Project, with a designed installed capacity of 49.5MW, was officially approved by Hebei Development and Reform Commission. It is expected to be completed and commence production by the end of October 2013. By then, the total installed capacity of Hongsong will reach 398.4MW. Exhibit 10:Hongsong Wind Farm located in Hongsongwa area of Hebei Province Source: 10
Langcheng Wind Farm On 23 June 2011, China Ruifeng completed the acquisition of a 7 equity interest in Langcheng for Rmb 31.5m. Langcheng owns wind farm resources located in Hexigten Qi, MengDong district of Inner Mongolia. The maximum installation capacity of Langcheng is 594MW and construction of the wind farm is in progress. Approximately Rmb100m has been invested in the project, with phases I to III of its major infrastructure works including road construction and base ring completed. Langcheng s wind farm is expected to commence grid-connected power generation in 2014. Due to the proximity of the wind farms of Hongsong and Langcheng, there is potential for development into a large-scale wind farm with a total capacity of over 1,000MW. Exhibit 11:Wind farm period-end capacity (MW) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1H13A 2H13F 1H14F 2H14F 1H15F 2H15F Max. Capacity Hongsong Langcheng 11
Appendix 1. Income Statement Rmb m 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Turnover 388 426 804 750 583 Cost of sales -324-350 -612-611 -534 Gross profit 64 75 192 139 49 Other revenue and net income 9 1 4 114 36 Distribution costs -10-17 -23-16 -13 Administrative expenses -31-43 -59-55 -67 Other operating expenses 0 0-647 0-86 (Loss)/Profit from operations 31 17-533 183-81 Finance costs -9-5 -25-83 -75 Share of profits less losses of associates 0 0-0 -0-0 (Loss)/Profit before taxation 21 11-558 100-156 Income tax -2 1-16 -9-11 (Loss)/Profit for the year 19 13-574 92-167 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit 19 13-574 92-167 Earnings per share (Rmb) 0.05 0.03-0.92 0.11-0.18 DPS (Rmb) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12
Appendix 2. Balance Sheet Rmb m 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Cash 44 98 182 83 160 Inventory 106 57 47 48 30 Accounts receivable 137 187 234 293 220 Other short-term operating assets 19 29 283 217 453 Total current assets 306 371 746 641 863 Net plant, property, & equipment (PPE) 156 157 124 224 182 Land use rights 24 20 13 18 11 Other long term assets 2 2 91 137 59 Total long term assets 182 179 228 379 252 Total Assets 488 550 974 1,020 1,115 Accounts payable (AP) 55 105 129 111 76 Borrowings 126 108 145 105 614 Other current liabilities 25 25 130 64 46 Total current liabilities 206 238 404 280 736 Borrowings 11 -- 307 378 23 Other non-current liabilities 3 -- 7 12 15 Total long term liabilities 14 0 314 390 38 Total Liabilities 220 238 718 670 774 Share capital 4 5 8 8 9 Reserves 263 306 247 342 333 Other comprehensive income/(loss) 2 2 1-1 -2 Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 Total Equity 269 313 256 349 340 Total Liabilities and Equity 489 551 974 1,019 1,114 13
Appendix 3. Cash Flow Statement Rmb m 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A Net income 19 13-574 92-167 Depreciation and amortization 17 21 26 20 18 Change in working capital 11 43-21 -148-65 Other non-cash items 1 11 662 10 176 Net cash generated from operations 48 88 93-26 -38 Capital expenditure 24 25 70 16 15 Proceeds from disposals of PPE 0 0 0 7 2 Increase in investment 6 0 3 5 0 Decrease in investment 0 6 4 0 0 Net cash generated from other investing activities 1 1-40 -77-124 Net cash generated from investing -29-18 -109-91 -137 Increase in debt 72 108 356 259 294 Decrease in debt 91 136 278 241 116 Increase in capital 0 31 0 0 98 Decrease in capital 0 0 0 0 0 Total dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 Net cash flows generated from other financing activities 4-17 33 17-23 Net cash provided by financing -15-14 111 35 253 Impact of foreign exchange rate changes 2 0-10 -17-1 Other cash flow adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 Net increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 6 56 85-99 77 Cash and Cash Equivalents - Beginning of year 38 44 98 182 83 Cash and Cash Equivalents - End of year 44 100 183 83 160 Free cash flow 24 63 23-42 -53 FCF per share(rmb) 0.060 0.157 0.037 (0.051) (0.058) Weighted average number of shares (m) 400 401 627 819 912 14
Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -1 to 1 relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 1 or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 1 or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -1 to 1 relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 1 or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of. Without s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 15
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