ANNO ACCADEMICO 2018-2019 SCIENZA DELLE FINANZE c.a. PROF. GIUSEPPE EUSEPI Lezione n. 32 10/12/2018 Lezione tenuta dal Dott. Fabrizio Tesseri (Dirigente Uffici II e VI, Direzione II Debito Pubblico, Ministero dell Economia e delle Finanze)
Update on Italian Public Debt November 2018
1 Italian Public Debt in figures
Central Government debt: breakdown by instrument as of October 2018 BTPs 71,10% BTPs i (indexed) 7,72% Foreign Debt Currencies 0,11% BTP Italia (indexed) 3,56% BOTs 5,69% Foreign Debt uro 1,97% CCTeu 7,03% CTZs 2,81% Securities Amount ( Mln) % BOTs 112.863,00 5,59% Flexible BOTs 0 0% CCTeu 139.345,74 6,97% CTZs 55.614,58 2,13% BTPs 1.409.287,81 71,78% BTPs i (indexed) 153.089,36 7,70% BTP Italia (indexed) 70.637,63 3,48% Atypical BTPs 313,66 0,02% Foreign Debt in Euro 39.137,60 2,21% of which ISPA Bonds 8.631,61 0,45% Foreign Debt Currencies 2.269,28 0,11% Total Amount 1.982.558,65 100% Average Life: 6.78 years Source: MEF 3
Evolution of debt composition by type of instrument and debt average life 80% Floating rate (BOT+CCT, LHS) Fix rate (LHS) Inflation Linkers (LHS) Average life (RHS) Years 8 70% 7,20 6,52 6,76 6,90 6,78 7 60% 6,38 6 50% 5 40% 4 30% 3 20% 2 10% 1 0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sep- Oct- 18 *(Average life September October 2017: 2017: 6.84) 6,85 Source: MEF 0 4
Interest rate risk: ATR and % 1y refixing* 33 6,35 6,30 32 6,25 31 Refixing Risk 1Y (LHS) 6,19 6,20 6,15 % 30 Average Time to next refixing (RHS) 29,41 6,12 29,78 6,10 6,05 6,00 years 29 5,95 5,90 28 5,85 Source: MEF * The Economic and Financial Sub-Committee on EU Sovereign Debt Markets (ESDM) has agreed an harmonized set of risk indicators in order to monitor market risks on a quarterly basis. Under criteria defined by the ESDM, inflation linkers are included within floating debt. Data also include Postal Bonds. 5
Sensitivity to interest rates shocks (parallel shift) Given the current debt structure, expected sensitivity of interest expenditure to a 100 bps parallel shift of the whole yield curve turns out to be substantially unchanged since the previous sensitivity analysis Interest expenditure/gdp Years Update Sept. 2018 Update Apr. 2018 1st 0,11 0,11 2nd 0,27 0,25 3rd 0,39 0,36 Source: MEF, September 2018 6
Refinancing risk: Average Life and % 1y refinancing* 20 7 Refinancing Risk 1Y (LHS) 19 6,9 18 Average Life (RHS) 6,86 6,8 6,78 % 17 16 15,83 6,7 6,6 years 15 6,5 14 14,68 6,4 Source: MEF *The Economic and Financial Sub-Committee on EU Sovereign Debt Markets (ESDM) has agreed an harmonized set of risk indicators in order to monitor market risks on a quarterly basis. Under criteria defined by the ESDM, inflation linkers are included within floating debt. Data also include Postal Bonds. 7
Trends in average debt cost, cost at issuance and interest expenditure Source: MEF, ISTAT, (National Bureau of Statistics 8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Bond redemptions Jan. 2018 Dec. 2020 (as of October 2018) BTPs BTP i BTP Italia CCTs CTZs Foreign Debt 45.000 mln. 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2018 2019 2020 Source: MEF 9
Breakdown by holders : foreign component is declining but without any major shift so far (data as of July/August 2018) Central Government securities (marketable) Monthly changes in total Central Government securities (marketable) held by not residents* Non Resident 35,63% Central Bank 19,00% 1,985 Bln Resident MFIs 17,45% Other Resident 5,48% Other resident FIs 22,44% * Data are derived from Bank of Italy s Bullettin on «Public Finance:s: Borrowing requirement and Debt» Source: MEF, Bank of Italy Central Government Securities = 84.9% of General Government Debt 10
Central Government securities: breakdown by holders as of June 2018 (trends) Bn CG Securities (marketable debt) 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jun-18 Central Bank Resident MFIs Other resident FIs Other Resident Non resident Source: MEF based upon Bank of Italy dataset 11
Government securities breakdown by asset and investor 4Q2017 BREAKDOWN BY ASSET AND INVESTOR - 4Q2017 BTPs BTP is BTP ITA CTZs CCTs BOTs Not resident 34% 18% 80% Insurance Co. and Pension Funds 17% 14% 1% Banks 14% 39% 11% Households and Corporate 9% 1% 1% Financial Institutions 6% 7% 7% Central Bank 20% 21% 0% 100% 100% 100% Source: MEF based upon Bank of Italy dataset - Figures may not add up exactly due to rounding 12
2 Public Debt management in 2018
Debt Policy for 2018 (I) Scheduled redemptions in 2018 are about 30 bn less than in 2017. This is the legacy of past issuance choices as well as of liability management transactions carried out in the recent past as exchanges and buybacks, that were heavily focused on 2018-19 redemptions. Considering that net borrowing requirement is lower that in previous year, total issuance volume of medium-long term securities will be in the region of 250 bn euros. As of the end of October roughly more than 90% of the 2018 funding plan has been completed BOT issuance volume has been kept in line with that of 2017 or slightly more thereby bringing the stock at the end of 2018 more or less to same level as of 2017 year-end (i.e around 106Bn) In the nominal space, issuance of BTPs has been predictable over the all segments up to 10 years, with some more weight on the 7-10 years sector vs the 3-5 years one, also to take into account the increase of volatility in this segment since May On the nominal long end, supply has been spread out on all the lines (15-20-30-50 years) according to market conditions. Total share of long end issuance will continue to be relevant as in recent years. 14
Debt Policy for 2018 (II) and initial toughts for 2019 On floaters, supply has been kept regular and at adequate size taking in account redemptions in order not to significantly alter the stock at year-end, thereby keeping interest rate risk under control In the inflation segment: A new 5 years introduced in March After the issuance held in the month of May, a further BTP Italia issuance is scheduled for November Derivatives: following the entering into force of a specific legislative framework, a bilateral CSA system is being implemented, allowing counterparties to ease meeting regulatory requirements and to lower possible FX hedging costs (see following point) For 2019 more focus will be given to retail investors (even, if possible, with new tailored instruments) and foreign currency issuance (thanks to the introduction of CSA as mentioned in the previous point) 15
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Participation to nominal BTP auctions : breakdown foreign/domestic buyer 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Italian buyer Foreign buyer *These data are collected by the Treasury from Primary Dealers in occasion of nominal BTPs auctions. Since representing flows recorded at the time of auctions, they are not comparable to data about stock owned by investors recorded at Bank of Italy. 16
The role of buy-backs and debt exchanges in managing redemption profile Buy-backs and debt exchanges are steadily used by MEF as a tool of the overall Debt management risk policy, as they may actually contribute to reduce refinancing risk and smooth redemption profile. Buy-backs are also used as a way to contribute to an adequate liquidity and efficiency of the secondary market especially in periods of market stress (like since mid-may this year) Securities to possibly buy back are selected by Treasury on several criteria including redemption profile, bond liquidity (aiming to avoid negative impacts in the secondary market) and impact on outstanding debt (bonds traded at par or below maximize the effects in terms of outstanding debt reduction). Buyback are performed via a competitive auction or a bilateral transaction Exchanges are performed via an exchange auction or via electronic trading system, allowing the Treasury to directly operate on the secondary market 17
Impact of all buy-backs and exchange transactions on future redemptions profile 50.000 mln. After exchange and buy-back transactions Treasury buyback 45.000 40.000 809 2.520 2.687 5.809 1.823 35.000 3.672 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 2.421 1.079 440 188 2.387 1.496 2.713 2.848 2.935 1.946 1.451 429 2.948640 3.199 550 2.783 288 976 1.777 1.406 1.831 250 450 1.000 350 300 1.325 763 471 750 773 608 5.000 0 Source: MEF 18
A proactive approach to face increasing volatility: buy-backs and exchange transactions in 2018 2018 Exchanges on electronic platform 2000 mln (issuance of a BTP 21, buyback of BTP 2018-19 area and CTZ 2018-2019 area) on April the 18th 2100 mln (issuance of a BTP 28, buyback of BTP 2019-20-21 area) on October the 3rd 3800 mln (issuance of BTPs 25,26,28,29 and 46, buyback of BTP Italia April 2020) on October the 18th 2018 Bilateral Buybacks 500 mln (BTP 2019, 2020 area) on May the 31st 700 mln (BTP 2020, CCTeu 2019-20 area) on June the 22nd 950 mln (BTP 2020, CCTeu 2019-22 area) on August the 3rd 2018 Public Buybacks 2.750 mln (BTP i 2019, CCTeu 2020, 2022) on September the 7th Source: MEF 19
3 Market data
Liquidity of the secondary market 10 yr BTP bid-ask spread, b.p. (January 2016-September 2018) 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 Source: MTS Italy interdealer platform 21
180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 Secondary market volumes ( Mln) 200.000 MTS Volumes 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 Monthly Volumes HRF out MTS* * Data collected from Italian primary dealers only. Single counted. 22
Trillions Repo market volumes 3,00 Special Repo General Collateral 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 23
www.publicdebt.itit www.mef.gov.it 24