BEMO MONTHLY BULLETIN I EQUITY MARKETS GLOBAL EQUITY BENCHMARK INDICES Last Price MTD % YTD % 30D Vol World 1270.28 2.90% 1.29% -0.26% Developed 2153.1 3.05% 2.36% -0.40% Emerging 1087.46 1.68% -6.13% -1.77% Frontier 2738.29 3.34% -8.37% -2.58% Europe 132 3.06% 0.45% -0.94% Latin America 2702.23 9.09% -4.45% -3.00% Asia Pacific 166.98 0.57% -3.93% -0.83% Last Price MTD % YTD % 30D Vol EuroStoxx 50 3525.49 3.83% 0.61% -1.52% FTSE 100 7748.76 1.46% 0.79% -1.04% CAC 40 5511.3 3.53% 3.74% 0.03% DAX 12805.5 4.06% -0.87% -0.69% Swiss SMI 9174.33 6.56% -2.21% -2.78% Nikkei 225 22553.72 1.12% -0.93% 1.42% CSI 300 3517.66 0.19% -12.73% 1.53% S&P Indices INTERNATIONAL EQUITY INDICES Last Price MTD % YTD % 30D Vol S&P 500 2816.29 3.60% 5.34% -0.27% S&P Value 1130.36 3.87% 0.30% -2.81% S&P Growth 1688.82 3.37% 10.14% 1.98% Sectors Indices S&P 500 IN FOCUS Discretionary 885.15 1.71% 12.71% -0.62% Staples 549.6 3.88% -6.43% -2.43% Energy 569.16 1.36% 6.70% -3.75% Financials 463.85 5.15% -0.02% -1.80% Healthcare 1028.39 6.48% 7.54% 0.35% Industrials 645.78 7.25% 1.25% -0.22% IT 1243.45 2.04% 12.41% 4.22% Materials 374.38 2.95% -1.20% -1.95% Telecom 149.6 1.00% -9.92% -2.58% Utilities 268.11 1.83% 0.28% 1.14% Real Estate 203.92 1.00% 0.03% 0.33% Equities markets were up as trade war fears abated as the EU and the US maintained open discussions regarding tariffs. European equities in particular found support in a Trump-Juncker discussion of trade war agreements reducing tariffs on US imports of European cars and raw materials. Investors turned their focus towards corporate earnings and a macroeconomic data. The earning season remained strong with the exception of social media indicating lower user growth. Moving forward, near-term performance will be highly driven by central banks decisions. The ECB indicated to end its asset purchase program by December, while the BoJ committed to maintaining low yields. However hawkish moves by the BoE and the Fed could result in capital-heavy firms facing a more negative outlook. DEVELOPED VS EMERGING - MONTH TO DATE EMERGING DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL EQUITY - MONTH TO DATE CAC 40 FTSE 100 DAX NIKKEI 225 VALUE GROWTH S&P 500 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE S&P VALUE VS GROWTH
BEMO MONTHLY BULLETIN I FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE PERFORMANCE Major Indices Last Price MTD % 30D Vol 25 RR USD Index 1174.63-0.56% -0.03% - EUR/USD 1.1691 0.06% -0.03% -0.083 USD/JPY 111.86 0.99% -0.12% -0.628 GBP/USD 1.3124-0.63% -0.17% -0.600 USD/CAD 1.3006-0.97% 0.01% 0.180 AUD/USD 0.7424 0.26% 0.01% -0.433 NZD/USD 0.6818 0.74% 0.04% -0.388 USD/CHF 0.9903-0.03% -0.07% -0.283 USD/NOK 8.1589 0.14% -0.25% 0.120 USD/SEK 8.7918-1.69% 0.00% 0.195 USD/CNY 6.8167 2.96% -0.01% 0.290 Major EUR Cross Rate EUR/GBP 0.89091 0.70% -0.11% 0.385 EUR/CHF 1.15794 0.08% -0.04% -0.310 EUR/JPY 130.79 1.11% -0.01% -0.680 DISTANCE FROM 52 WEEKS LOW/HIGH The USD saw some pressure relieved following positive talks with European Commission President Juncker, which eased trade war pricing pressures. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy witnessed more relaxed credit conditions and an accommodative policy following a heigher risk of bond defaults. The Euro was more heavily impacted by negative political developments early during the month in Germany, following an immigration dispute between Merkel and interior minister Seehofer almost resulting in the latter s resignation. Meanwhile, Draghi s announcement of the extension of the ECB s asset purchasing program to end-december to support macroeconomic growth provided the Euro with some support. Investors will be attentive to interest rate decisions in the UK and US, with guidance and economic indicator results to continue to impact market trends. EUR/USD 1 MONTH SUPPORT & RESISTANCE GBP/USD 1 MONTH SUPPORT & RESISTANCE USD/JPY 1 MONTH SUPPORT & RESISTANCE USD/CAD 1 MONTH SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
BEMO MONTHLY BULLETIN I FIXED INCOME July saw upwards parallel shifts in yield curves across most developed economies, as the US and UK are expected to increase monetary tightening policies. The BoJ decided to keep rates low by increasing its purchase of ETFs tied to the Topix, adding 1.5 trillion to its ETF amount. In the US, a positive quarterly GDP report increased the probability of a fourth rate hike. The Fed decision warrants more decisive wage growth data and clearer inflation indicators. Benchmark Indices GLOBAL BOND INDICES Yield Yield (in Bps) US 10 Years Benchmark 2.9598 0.100 EU 10 Years Benchmark 0.443 0.141 UK 10 Years Benchmark 1.33 0.052 Sovereign Bonds US Treasury Bond 2.821 0.115 Eurozone Sovereign Bond 0.598 0.06 U.K. Sovereign Bond -0.081 0.012 Japan Sovereign Bond 1.059 0.033 The EU has already decided to extend QE to end-december, citing growth concerns amid inconsistent macroeconomic data. Hopes for a conclusion to the trade dispute between the US and China helped European yields up regardless. Moving forward, a BoE rate hike scheduled for Thursday may have a reduced investor confidence impact due to Brexit concerns, while a Fed rate hike would negatively affect dollardenominated emerging market bonds. US TREASURIES YIELD CURVE - 1 MONTH EUR GENERIC YIELD CURVE - 1 MONTH Corporate Bonds US Investment Grade Bond 3.988-0.031 US High Yield Bond 6.308-0.187 EUR Investment Grade Bond 0.980-0.029 EUR High Yield Bond 3.948-0.268 USD Emerging Market IG & HY 5.594-0.164 OVERNIGHT RATES - SWAPS Rate Rate (in Bps) 3M USD LIBOR 2.34313 0.0074 3M EUR EURIBOR -0.319 0.0020 3M GBP LIBOR 0.79388 0.1198 3Y USD SWAP 2.9444 0.0843 5Y USD SWAP 2.9776 0.0875 10Y USD SWAP 3.0283 0.0948 30Y USD SWAP 3.0392 0.1090 FIXED INCOME SPREADS Spread Spread (in Bps) USD 3M vs 10Y Spread 0.93442 (0.0032) USD 2Y vs 10Y Spread 0.28632 (0.0415) USD IG Spread 1.48 (0.1600) USD HY Spread 3.34 (0.2900) EU vs US 10Y Spread -2.5272 0.0313 EU vs US 2Y Spread -3.246 (0.0529) EM vs Benchmark Spread 2.48 (0.2230) USD CORPORATES - 1 MONTH SPREAD EU VS US - 1 MONTH SPREAD
BEMO MONTHLY BULLETIN I COMMODITIES GLOBAL COMMODITIES MARKET Last Price Daily % Commodity Index 85.39-2.31% Energy WTI Crude Future 68.76-5.11% Brent Crude Future 74.21-5.90% NYMEX Gasoline 208.05-2.42% NYMEX Heat Oil 213.74-3.56% ICE Gasoil 657.25-3.17% NYMEX Natural Gas 2.782-4.10% Precious Metals Gold Spot $/Oz 1224.15-2.27% Silver Spot $/Oz 15.523-3.69% Platinum Spot $/Oz 838.62-1.72% Palladium Spot $/Oz 934.58-2.19% Gold Future 1233.6-2.58% Silver Future 15.559-3.94% Platinum Future 845.8 0.00% Palladium Future 931.9 0.00% Base Metals LME Aluminum 2081-2.44% LME Copper 6300-4.92% LME Zinc 2625-8.02% LME Nickel 14030-5.84% LME Lead 2155-10.60% LME Tin 20080 1.67% Agricultural Corn CBT 386.5 4.11% Wheat CBT 553.75 10.47% Soybeans CBT 919 4.43% Bean Meal CBT 341.4 3.49% Rough Rice CBT 11.915 6.15% MDE Palm Oil 2194-5.67% Soybean CBT 29.3-1.48% Coffee ICE 109.9-4.52% Sugar #11 ICE 10.55-13.88% Cotton #2 ICE 89.59 6.76% Cocoa ICE 2220-12.29% Ethanol CME 1.463 1.11% Lumber CME 455.4-17.57% Orange Juice ICE 167.4 4.40% Live Cattle CME 109.3-0.66% Feeder Cattle CME 149.575-0.91% Lean Hogs CME 50.725-15.14% Gold continued its recent decline as investors turned to yield generating assets in a rising interest rates environment. Furthermore, as trade war fears were assuaged, investors turned away from safe-haven instruments, putting further pressure on bullion prices. Oil prices were lower weighed down by oversupply concerns as the US and Saudi Arabia plan to boost output to counterbalance sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and as Libya continues to increase its output. Basic metals and agricultural commodities recovered after witnessing bouts of volatility driven by trade negotiations and their impact on global growth. The US and EU trade agreement resulted in lower tariffs on steel and aluminum, and also led to the EU agreeing to boost soybean imports from the US. COMMODITY INDEX SUPPORT & RESISTANCE GOLD 1 MONTH SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
BEMO MONTHLY BULLETIN I MARKET TRENDS KEY ASSETS TRENDS * Monthly trends are calculated based on the last two-month period CENTRAL BANKS WATCH - IMPLIED RATES PROBABILITIES FEDERAL RESERVES EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK BANK OF ENGLAND BANK OF JAPAN FEAR BAROMETERS LOW FEAR HIGH FEAR The CS Fear Barometer measures investor sentiment for 3-month investment horizons by pricing a zero-cost collar. The higher the level, the greater the fear. LOW VOLATILITY HIGH VOLATILITY The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index reflects a market estimate of future volatility, based on the weighted average of the implied volatilities for a wide range of strikes.
DAILY MARKETS BRIEF I ECONOMIC DATA KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Country Event Date China CPI YoY 8/9/2018 4:30 Eurozone CPI YoY 8/17/2018 12:00 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI 8/1/2018 10:50 France Markit France Manufacturing PMI 8/23/2018 10:00 Germany IFO Business Climate 8/27/2018 11:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations 8/14/2018 12:00 Italy Manufacturing Confidence 8/28/2018 11:00 Japan Industrial Production MoM 8/14/2018 7:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM 8/31/2018 2:50 Japan Jobless Rate 8/31/2018 2:30 Japan GDP SA QoQ 8/10/2018 2:50 Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ 8/10/2018 2:50 United Kingdom Bank of England Bank Rate 8/2/2018 14:00 United Kingdom GDP QoQ 8/10/2018 11:30 United Kingdom GDP YoY 8/10/2018 11:30 United Kingdom CPI YoY 8/15/2018 11:30 United States Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 8/3/2018 15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8/2/2018 15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8/9/2018 15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8/16/2018 15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8/23/2018 15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8/30/2018 15:30 United States FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 8/1/2018 21:00 United States GDP Annualized QoQ 8/29/2018 15:30 United States CPI MoM 8/10/2018 15:30 Banque BEMO sal Wealth & Investment Management research@bemobank.com Head Office - Private and Corporate Banking 96 Pasteur Building, Pasteur Street, Medawar Area, P.O. Box: 16-6353, Beirut - Lebanon Tel: + 961 1 568 250 Fax: + 961 1 568 266 General Management Beirut Central District Riad El Solh Square, Esseily Building Bloc A, 7th Floor Beirut - Lebanon Tel: + 961 1 992 600 Fax: + 961 1 983 368 www.bemobank.com Disclaimer: This report is published for information purposes only. The information herein has been compiled from, or based upon sources considered to be reliable (Bloomberg, SeekingAlpha, DailyStar ), but we do not guarantee or assume responsibility for its completeness and accuracy. This document should not be construed as a solicitation to take part in any investment, or as constituting any representation or warranty on our part. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of specialists. We may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. The investments and services contained or referred to herein are not purported to be exhaustive, any person considering an investment should seek specialist advice on the suitability of an investment. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Clients understand that it is their responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of their investment transactions. The consequences of any action taken on the basis of information contained herein are solely the responsibility of the recipient. Investment instruments are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Some investments mentioned in this report may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is realized. Some investments may not be readily realizable and it may be difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed. This report may provide the addresses of websites or references. We have not reviewed any such site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or reference is provided solely for convenience and information. Accessing such website through this report shall be at the recipients own risk.