Latest Philippine and Regional Economic Performance, and Socioeconomic Priorities 2018 Onwards Carlos Bernardo O. Abad Santos ASSISTANT SECRETARY 28 November 2018
PH economic growth in an upward trajectory 8 6 4 2 0 2.0% 1980-1989 2.8% 1990-1999 4.5% 2000-2009 6.4% 2010-2017 6.3% Q1-Q3 2018 GDP GROWTH 6.7% Full Year 2017-2 -4-6 -8 Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) 2
Rising contribution from investments and industry Ave. growth 2.8% 0.4 0.3 2.5-0.3 Demand Side 4.5% 0.2 0.7 0.3 3.3 6.4% 3.0 0.7 1.5 4.0 3.8-1.3 6.3% 4.8-3.7 2.8% 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 Supply Side 6.4% 6.3% 4.5% 3.8 4.0 2.8 2.4 1.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2017 Q1-Q3 2018 Household Consumption Government Investment Net Exports 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2017 Q1-Q3 2018 Agriculture Industry Services Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)
The Outlook: Bright Prospects The Philippines is expected to remain one of the fastestgrowing economies in Asia 7.37.4 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.56.6 6.2 5.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.74.6 4.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.5 World Output India Vietnam China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore 2017 2018F 2019F Source: IMF-WEO October 2018
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 H1 2018 H1 Supported by stable macroeconomic fundamentals Resilient fiscal position in support of growth National gov t outstanding debt (% of GDP) 54.7 54.8 52.4 51.0 51.5 49.2 45.4 44.7 42.1 42.1 45.1 23.0 18.0 Fiscal Position (% of GDP) Fiscal Position Revenue Effort Tax Effort 16.9 15.2 13.0 8.0 3.0 80 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 as of Q3 2018 External position is supportive of economic growth Current Account & External Debt (% of GDP) 23.3 23.5 22.5-0.7-0.1-1.9-2.0-7.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 as of Q3 2018 1.7 2.7 2.9 Net FDI (US$ billion) 1.3 2.1 1.1 2.0 3.2 3.7 5.7 5.7 8.3 10.0 5.7 7.4 External Debt to GDP ratio - LHS Current Account to GDP Ratio - RHS 5
Underemployment Unemployment Our vibrant economy is producing more and better jobs Summary of Labor and Employment Indicators, July 2017 and July 2018 (in 000 except rates) Unemployment and Underemployment Rate, FY 2010-2017 (in %) Indicators July July 2018 p 2017 24 7.4 8 Population 15 years and over 71,560 70,164 22 5.7 7 Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 60.1 60.6 20 18 16 14 18.8 5.5 16.1 Underemployment (%) Unemployment (%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014a/ 2015b/ 2016c/ 2017d/ 6 5 4 3 2 Employment Level 40,659 40,171 Employment Rate (%) 94.6 94.4 Employment Generation 488-783 Unemployment Level 2,323 2,373 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.4 5.6 Underemployment Level 7,005 6,541 Underemployment Rate (%) 17.2 16.3 a/ starting 2004, LFS results used the 2000 Census of Population and Housing (CPH); b/ FY 2015 exclude Leyte; c/ starting April 2016, LFS results used the 2013 Master Sample and 2010 CPH); p preliminary Source: Labor Force Survey, PSA 6
Public Investment Program (PIP) 2017-2022 Public Investment to GRDP Ratio (%) 17.5 14.6 12.5 17.5% ARMM Highest 6.3% National Average 4.7 4.2 7.3 9.3 7.7 6.0 8.5 8.0 4.4 8.9 8.3 6.4 7.2 7.2 4.2% NCR Lowest 7.2% Region XI Note: Uses nominal GDP estimates from the Medium Term Fiscal Program FY 2017-2022
Region XI has been growing by an average of 7.6% Region XI Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate at Constant 2000 Prices (in percent) 2017 Gross Regional Domestic Product: Percent Distribution by Region/ Major Island Group, at Constant 2000 Prices (in percent) 5.6 Agriculture Industry Services 9.3 6.7 8.2 7.0 9.5 10.9 XI, 4.3 X, 3.7 IX, 1.9 VIII, 2.0 VII, 6.4 XII, 2.7 XIII, 1.2 ARMM, 0.6 NCR, 36.4 3.7 VI, 4.0 V, 2.0 IV B, 1.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 IVA, 16.8 I, 3.1 CAR, 1.8 III, 9.7 II, 1.7 8
Significant gains in poverty reduction were also achieved in the region. 60 Poverty Incidence by Region 50 40 30 20 21.6 10 0 PHL NCR CAR 1 2 3 4A 4B 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Caraga ARMM 1991a/ 2009 2015 9
Key Policy Reform Agenda Sustaining/Accelerating Economic Growth 1 Improve government processes dealing with business 4 Ensure the timely execution of the budget 2 3 Ease restrictions on foreign investments Pursue tax reform towards a simple, fair, and equitable tax system to boost consumption spending and investments 5 Seek out new export markets to further diversify export destinations 10
Key Policy Reform Agenda Sustaining/Accelerating Economic Growth 6 Lift the quantitative restrictions (QR) on rice 8 Invest in disaster resiliency 7 Diversify to high-value crops 9 Ensure timely restoration of normalcy in affected areas in Mindanao 11
Key Policy Reform Agenda Sustaining/Accelerating Economic Growth 10 Sustain and enhance programs that target the vulnerable population 12 Implement a National ID System 11 Strengthen S&T and Innovation Ecosystem to Face up to Disruptive Technologies 13 Accelerate infrastructure development 12