Backing our customers Annual Financial Results 2018 for the financial year ended 31 December 2018 AIB Group plc
Forward Looking Statement This document contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of AIB Group and certain of the plans and objectives of the Group. These forward looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to historical or current facts. Forward looking statements sometimes use words such as aim, anticipate, target, expect, estimate, intend, plan, goal, believe, may, could, will, seek, continue, should, assume, or other words of similar meaning. Examples of forward looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Group s future financial position, capital structure, Government shareholding in the Group, income growth, loan losses, business strategy, projected costs, capital ratios, estimates of capital expenditures, and plans and objectives for future operations. Because such statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking information. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward looking statements. These are set out in the Principal risks and uncertainties on pages 62 to 68 in the 2018 Annual Financial Report. In addition to matters relating to the Group s business, future performance will be impacted by Irish, UK and wider European and global economic and financial market considerations. Any forward looking statements made by or on behalf of the Group speak only as of the date they are made. The Group cautions that the list of important factors on pages 62 to 68 of the 2018 Annual Financial Report is not exhaustive. Investors and others should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events when making an investment decision based on any forward looking statement. 2
Backing our customers Bernard Byrne Chief Executive Officer AIB Group plc
2018 highlights Customer First strategy delivering sustainable performance Profit before tax 1.25bn, loan book growth and significant improvement in asset quality Reaching more normalised annual dividend level with +42% increase to 461m / 17c per share Business generating capital +210bps pre-dividend; fully loaded CET1 of 17.5% Strong progress on NPE normalisation; 6.1bn (9.6% overall), down 4.1bn (-41%) from Dec 2017 ROTE (1) 12.4% allowing continued investment in evolving our market leading franchise (1) ROTE based on (PAT AT1 coupon + DTA utilization ) / (CET1 @ 13% plus DTA) 4
Growing Irish economy Continuing attractive market dynamic Irish economic growth* improving; Brexit risk remains % 7.5 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 2018* 2019 2020 As at Jul 2017 As at Oct 2018 Source: CSO, Dept. of Finance Total employment levels rising as unemployment falls 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 Q1 2013 Source: CSO Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 LHS: Employment ('000s) RHS: Unemployment rate (%) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Irish housing activity # of completions, commencement & registrations ( 000s) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Normalised demand 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Completions Commencements Registrations RHS: HPI Source: CSO, Department of Housing, AIB ERU, National House price index Jan 05=100; 2018 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Business sector in expansionary mode; cautious amid uncertainty PMI index 65 60 55 50 45 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Irish Services Irish Manufacturing Eurozone Composite Source: Markit via Thomson Datastream * GDP forecasts used, however note that GDP can be distorted due to the impact of multi-national sector in Ireland. Modified final domestic demand in 2018 estimated at c.5% 5
Delivering continued momentum Increased new lending; leading market shares Continuing increase in new lending Drawdowns ( bn) Continuing momentum in key sectors (1) Mortgage lending ( bn) Leading market shares in key segments Stock 10.5 12.1 1.4 2.4 2.8 37% 22% 32% 44% 21% 42% 1.1 4.0 3.2 1.8 1.6 4.6 4.9 2017 2018 Personal lending ( bn) 0.8 0.8 2017 2018 SME and Corporate lending ( bn) 5.3 4.6 1.3 1.4 Main current account Personal loan (excl car) Mortgages Business main current account Main leasing Main business loan Source: Ipsos MRBI AIB Personal Financial Tracker Q4 2018; Ipsos MRBI AIB SME Financial Monitor March 2018 bn Growing the performing loan book 53.1 (2) 56.8 3.2 4.0 2017 2018 RCB UK WIB RCFs 2017 2018 Corporate SME Dec-17 Dec-18 Performing loans (1) Excludes UK and revolving credit facilities (RCF) (2) New lending flow based on BPFI industry drawdown data to end December 2018 6
Consistency of strategy and delivery Continued strategic, financial and operational performance through 2018 AIB Purpose To back our customers to achieve their dreams and ambitions AIB Values We put our customers first; we are better together; we keep it simple; we are empowering, we are building trust and appreciation Customer First Simple & Efficient Risk & Capital Talent & Culture 4 Pillars Personal Relationship Q4 2018 NPS +35 64% of key products sold online or mobile +210bps organic capital generation 72 nd percentile Gallup iconnect score (17:1 engaged) NIM 2.40% + Operating model Delivering for customers and shareholders CET1 13% Shareholder Value ROTE 10% + Enabling technology Evolving Customer Delivery Property portfolio CIR <50% Sustainability 7
Purpose & four pillar strategy driving performance Backing our customers to achieve their dreams and ambitions and delivering for stakeholders Customer First Simple & Efficient Risk & Capital Talent & Culture Customer and business outcomes Multiple touchpoints Greater efficiency, product offering & delivery Personal relationship Q4 18: NPS +35 Performing loan book growth + 3.7bn 2018 1.2m Mobile Interactions 251K Internet Banking Logins 12K Kiosk / Tablet Logins >1.8m daily interactions 18K Contact Centre (1) Calls (m) 0.96 Number of active online & mobile users (active @ year end) 1.04 1.14 1.26 1.38 Homes Organic capital generation 101K Branch Transactions 298K ATM Interactions 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q4 18: NPS +50 SME micro Q4 18: NPS +57 +210bps New lending 98% at strong/satisfactory grades 2013 208K 148K Internet Mobile Banking Logins Interactions 208K77K Internet Branch Banking Transactions Logins 880k daily interactions 77k Branch Transactions 18K Contact 18KCentre (1) ContactCalls Centre (1) Calls 432K ATM Withdrawals (m) Number of customer transactions completed via online & mobile channels 24.7 26.9 30.6 36.3 44.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (1) Includes calls to direct banking & service 8
Customer First driving commercial success Focus on customer value, efficiency and improving the experience Customer led initiatives Customer benefits Customer outcomes Express mortgage customer journey & My Mortgage app Fast decision <90 minutes Dedicated Mortgage App Upload documents View application status Engage directly with Homes Centre of Excellence Improving customer experience; + 61NPS (1) 50% applications submitted via Express Journey (2) My Mortgage App adoption rate of 90% since launch New to Bank account opening on mobile Enhanced & market leading digital wallet & payments offering Seamless account opening process No appointment needed Simple, fast, secure 148K Mobile Interactions Simple & efficient payment options- Apple Pay, Google Pay, Fitbit Pay Open payments to any IBAN in 77K Ireland via pay someone Branch new on AIB Transactions mobile app 432K ATM Withdrawals 18K Contact Centre Calls Over 20% of New to Bank AIB personal accounts opened through mobile (3) Extends AIB s leading digital technology from existing customers to new customers. AIB Mobile Payments up +39% in 2018 Over 30m payments per month, +25% YOY, with over 50% now contactless Google Pay, Apple Pay, Fitbit pay c.10% of all contactless payments Leading digital technology Greater efficiency and increase in level of customer interactions Better customer experience, increased customer satisfaction and commercial success (1) NPS based on Express Journey July to Dec 18 (2) Current percentage of total applications submitted across branch and Direct (3) Percentage refers to eligible current accounts and excludes student accounts, advantage accounts and basic bank accounts 9
Continued investment in key focus areas Predictable levels of investment c. 225m per annum 300 250 200 Annual investment spend ( m) Strategic Customer engagement platforms My Mortgage app Informational & analytical capability Real time customer data capture Modernised processing solutions Express mortgage customer journey Use of robotics and AI capability: o Production bots o Voice ID o Comms hub 150 Enhanced digital banking Digital wallets & payments offering 100 Resilience New payments and treasury platforms Enhanced cybersecurity 50 Sustainment Increasing digital and data capacity while maintaining capability and service levels 0 2016-2018 average Medium term average (2019-21) Regulatory Sustainment Resilience Strategic Regulatory Ongoing compliance Open Banking (PSD 2), GDPR, CCR, AML and UK CMA Additional strategic investment to engage with our customers / expand product and service proposition 10
Modern tiered architecture Scaling our digital transformation across every tier of our technology estate Engagement Leading digital banking capabilities API Gateway Integration Open, flexible, modular and service oriented architecture Rules Engine Fees Engine Eventing ETL Reliable Message Service BPM Doc Mgmt RPA Micro-Services Contexts (Customer, Account, etc.) MS MS MS MS MS Hubs CIAM Insight Improving data quality & availability Comms Hub (RTIM) Real Time Analytics BAM / APM Analytics Reporting ODS ODS ODS EDW Data Lake Record Renewing legacy systems CRM CIF Core Accounting Payments Treasury Credit Core Enterprise Systems Foundations Robust security and cloud enabled infrastructure Infrastructure Security Innovation Existing 2014-2018 Current Focus 11
Continuing to evolve Improving sustainability with increased focus on customer delivery Core Segments Business Homes Consumer Continuing to evolve our operating model to align strategy, structure and customer delivery Business & Customer Services Risk Increased focus on sustainability of business model Customer First ethos embedded in culture journey continues. Changing our property portfolio to support evolution of operating model Finance HR Customer & Strategic Affairs Key Enablers Enabling technology to improve customer experience and efficiency Facilitated by changing our ways of working to increase agility AIB UK Group Internal Audit Report to Audit Committee 12
Significant capital generation and capacity for return Normalising NPEs and distributions 14.1 10.2 Strong organic capital generation CET1 (FL) ratio % 6.1 17.5 (0.5) 17.0 2.1 (0.7) 18.4 (0.9) 17.5 2016 2017 2018 NPE ( bn) 461 13.1bn 13.4bn 250 326 Dec-17 IFRS 9 Jan-18 Profit Inv Dec-18 Proposed Dec-18 day 1 impact / securities / pre dividend dividend DOD (1) other 2016 2017 2018 Dividend ( m) Shareholders equity Reaching more normalised annual dividend levels moves our focus to returning excess capital 10.8bn return to the State plus 71% shareholding (1) Definition of default 13
Backing our customers Donal Galvin Chief Financial Officer AIB Group plc
Financial highlights 2018 Strong operational and financial performance Profit before tax 1.25bn strong financial performance NIM 2.47%; NIM on a previous basis including interest on cured loans 2.53% (1) Costs 1.4bn; stable year on year New lending 12.1bn (2), up 15%; increased across all asset classes NPE 6.1bn (9.6% of gross loans), reduced by 4.1bn (41%) in the year CET1 (FL) 17.5%, strong capital generation, supporting proposed dividend Proposed dividend 461m increased by 42%; dividend pay-out ratio 44% 1.65bn of MREL issuance completed; investment grade (IG) achieved (1) Following the implementation of IFRS 9, income on cured loans without financial loss is now reported within credit impairments; previously reported in interest income (2018: 44m, 2017 61m) (2) Includes new term lending 10.7bn and new transaction lending 1.4bn (primarily revolving credit facilities) 15
Income statement Profit before tax 1.25bn driven by strong business performance Summary Income Statement ( m) FY 2018 FY 2017* Net interest income 2,100 2,115 Other income 626 791 Total operating income 2,726 2,906 Total operating expenses (1) (1,448) (1,428) Operating profit before provisions 1,278 1,478 Bank levies and regulatory fees (82) (105) Net credit impairment writeback 204 182 Associated undertakings & other 14 19 Profit before exceptionals 1,414 1,574 Exceptional items (167) (268) Profit before tax from continuing operations 1,247 1,306 Net interest income stable Other income 626m fees and commissions stable; offset by lower other items Operating expenses in line; continued cost discipline Metrics FY 2018 FY 2017* Net interest margin (NIM) 2.47% 2.50% NIM (on a previous basis incl. income on cured loans) 2.53% 2.58% Cost income ratio (CIR) (1) 53% 49% Return on tangible equity (RoTE) 12.4% 12.3% Earnings per share (EPS) 38.9c 39.7c Dividend per share (DPS) 17c 12c Delivering strong returns ROTE 12.4% Proposed dividend per share 17c, increased 42% from FY 2017 * FY 2017 has been re-presented following the implementation of IFRS 9, income on cured loans without financial loss is now reported with credit impairments; previously reported in interest income (1) Excludes exceptional items, bank levies and regulatory fees 16
Net interest margin (NIM) Stable and in excess of 2.40%+ target Net interest margin material movements Net interest margin stable 2.50% (1) 7 bps (6 bps) (3 bps) (2 bps) 2.47% 2.47%; on a previous basis incl. income on cured loans 2.53% Lower cost of funding offset by reducing investment securities yields impact of excess liquidity Dec-17 Cost of funds Excess liquidity Loan yields Investment securities Dec-18 Net interest margin trajectory (%) Q4 exit NIM 2.48% reflects management actions on excess liquidity 2.52 2.50 2.50 2.43 2.48 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 (1) FY 2017 has been re-presented following the implementation of IFRS 9, income on cured loans without financial loss is now reported with credit impairments; previously reported in interest income 17
Other income Stable net fee and commission income Net fee & commission income ( m) 449 457 71 71 49 45 77 85 47 45 Customer related FX Other fees & commission Card Fees and commissions 457m customer accounts and card income increase driven by higher volumes of transactions Credit related fees 205 211 Customer accounts FY 2017 FY 2018 Other income ( m) FY 2018 FY 2017 Net fee and commission income 457 449 Other business income 44 75 Business income 501 524 Gains on disposal of investment securities 15 55 Gains on equity investments 27 - Other business income 44m lower trading income in the year Other items 125m lower income from gains on disposal of investment securities and realisation of cash flows on restructured loans Realisation of cash flows on restructured loans 84 213 Other losses (1) (1) Other items 125 267 Total other income 626 791 18
Costs Continued focus on cost discipline m Operating expenses (1) 49% (2) 53% 1,428 1,448 Costs 1.4bn in line with expectations Factors impacting costs: 717 718 CIR% wage inflation 3% partially offset by lower average FTE Other costs increased depreciation from investment programme 711 730 FY 2017 FY 2018 Staff costs Investing in the business and operating model; harvesting efficiencies going forward # FTE (3) - employees 10,137 9,801 9,720 9,831 1,350 1,353 8,370 8,478 Average FTE FSG Exceptional items 167m primarily include: gain on disposal of loan portfolios 147m property strategy 81m IFRS9 and associated regulatory costs 51m Other customer redress 49m FY 2017 FY 2018 restitution and restructuring costs 91m (1) Excluding exceptional items, bank levies & regulatory fees (2) FY 2017 has been re-presented following the implementation of IFRS 9, income on cured loans without financial loss is now reported with credit impairments; previously reported in interest income (3) Period end 19
Balance sheet New lending growth supported by strong liquidity and capital ratios Balance sheet ( bn) Dec 2018 Jan 2018 Dec 2017 Performing loans 56.8 53.7 53.1 Non-performing loans 6.1 9.6 10.2 Gross loans to customers 62.9 63.3 63.3 Loss allowance (2.0) (3.6) (3.3) Net loans to customers 60.9 59.7 60.0 Investment securities 16.9 16.3 16.3 Other assets 13.7 13.8 13.8 Total assets 91.5 89.8 90.1 Performing loans increase 3.7bn Net loans increase 0.9bn Customer accounts 67.7 64.6 64.6 Deposits by central banks / banks 0.8 3.6 3.6 Debt securities in issue 5.7 4.6 4.6 Other liabilities 3.4 3.7 3.7 Total liabilities 77.6 76.5 76.5 Equity 13.9 13.3 13.6 Total liabilities & equity 91.5 89.8 90.1 No ECB funding Key funding metrics (%) Dec 2018 Jan 2018 Dec 2017 Fully loaded CET1 ratio 17.5 17.0 17.5 Leverage ratio (FL) 10.1-10.3 20
Gross performing loans Increased 3.7bn; strong growth across all asset classes bn Resi mortgages 28.9 29.0 Growing the performing loan book bn 53.1 56.8 bn 2.5 Other personal 2.7 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-17 Dec-18 bn Property & construction bn Corporate & SME (ex. property) 5.9 6.5 15.8 18.6 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-18: Performing loans 56.8bn Dec-18: New lending 12.1bn (1) 11% 5% 51% Residential mortgages Corporate & SME (ex property) Property & construction 16% 8% 23% 33% Personal 53% (1) Includes new term lending 10.7bn and new transactional lending 1.4bn (primarily revolving credit facilities) 21
Momentum in NPE reduction continues On track to reach 2019 target of c.5% NPE trajectory ( bn) 31.0 33% 10.2 0.6 9.6 9.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 7.3 7.2 1.1 6.10 27% 6.1 0.7 0.8 4.6 c.5% NPE Dec 2013 NPE Dec 2017 IFRS9 - harmonisation of default definition NPE Jan 2018 Cash / redemptions Restructuring / Other Portfolio Sales NPE Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Probationary Period Collateral Disposals Unlikely to Pay (UTP) including >90 DPD % NPE coverage % of gross loans 22
Momentum in NPE reduction continues Progress in resi mortgages 48% not past due and / or <90 DPD bn 33% NPE bn Resi Mortgages - NPE PDH 2.5bn Aged analysis 9.6 1.7 27% 20% 2.8 0.5 4.6 6.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 3.3 3.3 0.8 2.5 2.6 0.6 2.0 3.1 47% 12% 5% 36% Jan '18 Corporate & SME (ex property) Property & Construction Other Personal Dec-18 % NPE coverage NPE Net NPE Collateral* BTL PDH % NPE coverage Not Past Due < 90DPD >90 < 180DPD > 180DPD Residential Mortgages Loan to Value PDH (ROI) BTL (ROI) Dec 2016 - impaired 103% 101% Dec 2017 - impaired 92% 88% Dec 2018 stage 3 74% 74% * The value of collateral held for resi mortgages which are fully collateralised has been capped at the carrying value of the loans outstanding at year end 23
Funding structure 1.65bn MREL issuance complete; investment grade achieved Total funding ( bn) 88.9bn Investment grade (IG) with all three rating agencies AIB Group plc upgraded by Moody's and S&P in 2018 Customer Accounts: 67.7 0.8 1.6 1.0 3.1 0.8 76% 8% Deposits by banks HoldCo MREL MREL target 28.04% by 1 Jan 2021 - issuance plans c. 4bn of which 1.65bn completed three MREL (HoldCo senior) trades executed in the market - 500m 5 year, 500m 7 year and $750m 5 year Liquidity metrics (%) Dec 2018 Dec 2017 Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 90 93 Senior debt Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) 128 132 ACS Net stable funding ratio (NSFR) 125 123 13.9 16% T2 Equity (incl AT1) Dec-18 24
Risk weighted assets (RWA) Strong capital position, comfortably ahead of minimum requirements Risk weighted assets FL ( m) Dec 2018 Dec 2017 Movement Credit risk 46,052 46,414 (362) Market risk 371 360 11 Operational risk 4,624 4,248 376 CVA / other 392 801 (409) Total risk weighted assets 51,439 51,823 (384) RWA density 56% 58% (2%) CET1 FL ratio 17.5% 17.5% - RWA density reduced to 56% from 58% in 2018 balance sheet growth and asset mix + 1.4bn grade migration / NPE reduction - 1.4bn Factors impacting RWA IFRS16 impact 0.5bn RWA, c.15bps Targeted review of internal models (TRIM) Total capital ratio 19.1% 19.0% 0.1% SREP - CET1 requirements (%) FY 2019 Pillar 1 CET1 4.50 Pillar 2 requirement (P2R) 3.15 Capital conservation buffer (CCB) 2.50 Other systemically important institution (OSII) 0.50 SREP 2019 11.55% - no change in P2R EBA stress tests 2018 - CET1 FL (adverse scenario) 11.8% is 7.5% higher than 2016 result of 4.3% demonstrating strong capital resilience Counter cyclical buffer (CCyB) (1) 0.90 CET1 11.55 (1) CCyB rate for Ireland is 1%, this equates to a Group requirement of 0.7%; the rate for the UK is 1%, this equates to a Group requirement of 0.2% 25
Capital ratios Strong capital position Capital ratios fully loaded (%) 19.0 19.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 17.5 17.5 Total AT1 T2 CET1 CET1 17.5% reflects strong profit generation +210 bps Increased proposed dividend -90 bps reflects 17c per ordinary share ( 461m) Strong leverage ratio 10.1% FY 2017 FY 2018 CET1 movements (%) 17.5 (0.5) 17.0 2.1 (0.7) 18.4 (0.9) 17.5 Dec-17 IFRS 9 Jan-18 Profit Inv securities / Dec-18 Proposed Dec-18 day 1 impact / DOD (1) other pre dividend dividend (1) Definition of default 26
Medium term financial targets on track Focused on delivering sustainable performance Metric Medium Term Targets Guidance & Targets FY 2018 Commentary Net interest margin 2.40%+ Maintain strong and stable NIM, 2.47% Stable NIM, focus on 2.40%+ excess liquidity Cost income ratio <50% Below 50% by end 2019 reflecting 53% Stable costs robust and efficient operating model Fully loaded CET1 ratio 13.0% Strong capital base with normalised CET1 target of 13% 17.5% Strong capital base with capacity for shareholder returns, subject to Board & Regulatory approval ROTE 10%+ 10%+ return using (PAT AT1 coupon + DTA utilisation) / (CET1 @13% plus DTA) 12.4% Sustainable underlying profitability generating capital Dividends 2016: 250m 19% 2017: 326m 30% 2018: 461m 44% Dividend reaching normalisation Focused on returning excess capital Continued momentum and well positioned for growth 27
Backing our customers Colin Hunt Chief Executive Officer Designate AIB Group plc
Continuing to evolve Improving sustainability with increased focus on customer delivery Continuing to evolve our operating model to align strategy, structure and customer delivery Increased focus on sustainability of business model Customer First ethos embedded in culture journey continues. Changing our property portfolio to support evolution of operating model Enabling technology to improve customer experience and efficiency Facilitated by changing our ways of working to increase agility 29
Delivering against medium term financial targets Strong customer franchise, capital accretion and returns and sustainable growth Investment in Customer First agenda driving growth Target returns on tangible equity 10%+ (1) Shareholder value creation Maintain strong and stable NIM 2.40%+ Strong capital base with CET1 of 13% Robust and efficient operating model CIR <50% Firmly on track to deliver medium term targets on a sustainable basis Reaching more normalised annual dividend levels moves our focus to returning excess capital (1) ROTE based on (PAT AT1 coupon + DTA utilization ) / (CET1 @ 13% plus DTA) 30
Outlook 2019 opportunities and challenges Continuity and consistency of delivery Relentless customer focus Optimise our market leading franchise for growth Prepare for and navigate through Brexit Normalise NPEs and deliver attractive capital returns 31
Appendix Annual Financial Results 2018 for the financial year ended 31 December 2018 AIB Group plc
Average balance sheet NIM 2.47% December 2018 December 2017* Average Volume m Interest m Yield % Average Volume m Interest m Yield % Assets Customer loans 60,879 2,082 3.42 60,619 2,105 3.47 Investment securities 15,313 226 1.47 16,908 284 1.68 Loans to banks 8,654 22 0.26 6,396 12 0.20 NAMA senior bonds - - - 531 2 0.39 Interest earning assets 84,846 2,330 2.75 84,454 2,403 2.85 Non interest earning assets 7,176 7,165 Total Assets 92,022 2,330 91,619 2,403 Liabilities & equity Customer accounts 36,670 151 0.41 36,608 228 0.62 Deposits by banks 2,771 2 0.06 5,071 (4) (0.08) Other debt issued 5,223 45 0.87 5,667 33 0.59 Subordinated liabilities 794 32 3.98 792 31 3.95 Interest earning liabilities 45,458 230 0.51 48,138 288 0.60 Non interest earning liabilities 32,986 30,141 Equity 13,578 13,340 Total liabilities & equity 92,022 230 91,619 288 Net interest income / margin 2,100 2.47 2,115 2.50 Income on cured loans 44 61 Net interest income / margin on previous basis 2,144 2.53 2,176 2.58 * FY 2017 has been re-presented following the implementation of IFRS 9, income on cured loans without financial loss is now reported with credit impairments; previously reported in interest income 33
AIB Group plc HoldCo structure (AIB Group plc) in place for MREL issuance Simplified group structure (1) MREL Minister for Finance (71.1188% interest) Other shareholders (28.8812% free float) HoldCo structure (AIB Group plc) completed in Dec 2017 and HoldCo has become the sole issuer of MREL debt AIB Group plc (HoldCo) Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. MREL target 28.04% of RWA (per Dec 2016 balance sheet) EMTN issuance programme in place and 1.65bn HoldCo Senior issued 2018 500m 5 year inaugural deal Mar 18 500m 7 year Jun 18 $750m 5 year inaugural deal Oct 18 AIB Mortgage Bank EBS d.a.c. AIB Group (UK) plc Issuance plans manageable c. 4bn over 40% issued to date (1) Reflects main operating credit institutions only 34
Minority interest restriction (1) Impact of minority interest at AIB Group plc level Dec 2018 Fully loaded capital ratios (%) Pre restriction Minority interest restriction Post restriction CET1 17.5-17.5 Tier 1 18.4-0.3 18.1 Total capital 20.0-0.9 19.1 Dec 2018 Transitional capital ratios (%) Pre restriction Minority interest restriction Post restriction CET1 21.1-21.1 Tier 1 22.1-0.5 21.6 Total capital 23.6-1.2 22.4 No impact on CET1 Minority interest restriction under CRD IV a portion of the AT1 and T2 instruments issued out of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. will not be recognised in the consolidated AIB Group plc tier 1 and total capital ratios Should the outstanding Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. AT1 and T2 instruments be redeemed and re-issued out of AIB Group plc, the impact of this restriction will be reduced (1) The minority interest calculation may require adjustment pending the final communication of the EBA s position on the matter 35
Capital detail Transitional and fully loaded capital detail and ratios Transitional capital ratios Risk weighted assets ( m) Dec 18 Dec 17 Total risk weighted assets 51,596 51,728 Capital ( m) Shareholders equity excl AT1 and dividend 12,903 12,792 Regulatory adjustments (1,994) (2,024) Common equity tier 1 capital 10,909 10,768 Qualifying tier 1 capital 235 260 Qualifying tier 2 capital 415 644 Total capital 11,559 11,672 Fully loaded capital ratios Risk weighted assets ( m) Dec 18 Dec 17 Total risk weighted assets 51,439 51,823 Capital ( m) Shareholders equity excl AT1 and dividend 12,903 12,792 Regulatory adjustments (3,910) (3,747) Common equity tier 1 capital 8,993 9,045 Qualifying tier 1 capital 316 291 Qualifying tier 2 capital 531 520 Total capital 9,840 9,856 Transitional capital ratios (%) CET1 21.1 20.8 AT1 0.5 0.5 T2 0.8 1.3 Total capital 22.4 22.6 RWA (transitional) Risk weighted assets ( m) Dec 18 Dec 17 Movement Credit risk 46,209 46,319 (110) Market risk 371 360 11 Operational risk 4,624 4,248 376 CVA/other 392 801 (409) Total risk weighted assets 51,596 51,728 (132) Fully loaded capital ratios (%) CET1 17.5 17.5 AT1 0.6 0.5 T2 1.0 1.0 Total capital 19.1 19.0 Shareholders equity ( m) Equity - Dec 2017 13,612 Profit FY 2018 1,092 Impact of adopting IFRS 9 (267) Impact of adopting IFRS15 10 Investment securities reserves (289) Dividend (326) Other 26 Equity - Dec 2018 13,858 less: AT1 (494) less: Proposed ordinary dividend (461) Shareholders equity excl AT1 and dividend 12,903 36
Credit ratings Investment grade status for AIB Group plc AIB Group plc (HoldCo) Long term issuer rating Baa3 BBB- BBB- Outlook Positive Positive Stable Investment grade AIB p.l.c. (OpCo) Long term issuer rating A3 BBB- BBB+ Outlook Positive Positive Stable Investment grade 37
Investment securities 16.1bn portfolio of debt securities 9.6 8.4 Key components bn 7.0 6.3 Analysis of government securities bn 5.0 4.3 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2018 Government Securities 1.4 1.1 Supranational Banks and gov agencies Euro bank securities 0.8 Non Euro bank securities 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 Ireland Netherlands Italy Spain Rest of world Maturity & yield profile of investment securities at FVOCI bn (1) 1.8% 16.1bn up from 15.6bn 15m net gains from disposal of investment debt securities in FY 2018 Average yield of 1.47%, down from 1.68% from FY 17 3.6% 9.0 1.3% 1.8% 3.1 2.4 1.5 < 1 year 1-5 year 5-10 year 10+ year Yield reducing as higher yielding assets mature C. 75% of book maturing <5year Embedded value on investment securities 0.5bn Volumes Yield without swaps (1) Debt securities at amortised cost are not included: 187m, maturity 10+year, yield 2.3% 38
Return on tangible equity (PAT AT1 coupon + DTA utilisation) / (FL CET1 @ 13% + DTA) FY 2018 m PAT 1,092 Profit (1) (-) AT1 coupon 37 (+) DTA utilisation 114 Profit on CET1 @ 13% of RWAs + DTAs Profit (numerator) 1,169 RWA 51,439 CET1 at 13% RWA 6,687 (+) DTA 2,697 Adjusted CET1 (denominator) 9,384 CET1 @ 13% of RWAs DTAs Average adjusted CET1 (denominator) 9,442 Profit on CET1 @ 13% of RWA+DTA 12.4% (2) (1) PAT AT1 coupon + DTA utilisation = Profit (2) ROTE reflects a strong underlying performance enhanced somewhat by credit impairment writebacks and income from previously restructured loans 39
Asset quality by portfolio Continued progress in NPE reduction across all asset classes bn December 2018 Residential mortgages PDH BTL Other personal Property & construction Corporate & SME (ex property) Customer loans 32.3 29.0 3.3 3.1 7.9 19.6 62.9 of which NPEs 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.0 6.1 ECL on NPE 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.6 ECL / NPE coverage % 20 20 20 50 29 36 27 Total January 2018 Customer loans 33.7 29.7 4.0 3.1 8.8 17.7 63.3 of which NPEs 4.6 3.3 1.3 0.5 2.8 1.7 9.6 ECL on NPE 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.6 3.2 ECL / NPE coverage % 28 29 25 49 36 37 33 40
Asset quality Improving asset quality in the loan book Credit quality ( bn) NPE deleveraging strategy ( bn) 63.3 62.9 9.6 15% 6.1 4.5 5.0 8% 9.6% 7.2% 9.6% 6.1 c.5% 48.7 77% 52.3 83.2% Jan 18 Dec 18 NPE Criticised Strong / Satisfactory Dec 2018 - NPEs % of gross loans Cash / redemptions Restructuring / other Portfolio sales & strategic initiatives 2019 83.2% of the loan book is strong / satisfactory asset quality 98% of new lending flow is strong / satisfactory asset quality NPE deleveraging strategy delivering progress and on track to normalised levels (c. 5%) 41
Residential mortgages Improving asset quality; lower NPE Residential mortgages ( bn) 32.3 20% 3.3 10% 2.4 8% 26.6 82% NPE Criticised Strong/satisfactory Continued improvement in asset quality 82% of portfolio is strong / satisfactory NPE 10% of portfolio, down from 14% at Dec 17, with coverage of 20% Weighted average LTV for new ROI mortgages 70% Dec-18 ECL/NPE coverage Dec-17 RoI mortgages Dec-18 10% 33% Tracker 14% 30% 57% Variable Fixed 56% 32.2bn 31.0bn 42
Other personal Demand remains strong, lower NPE Other personal ( bn) Portfolio 3.1bn comprises 2.3bn loans and 50% 3.1 0.4 0.3 11% 9% 0.8bn credit card facilities Demand remains strong, increased online approval through internet and mobile credit 80% application activity 2.4 Dec-18 NPE Criticised Strong / satisfactory NPE 11% of portfolio down from 18% at Dec 17 with coverage of 50% ECL/NPE coverage 43
Property & construction Lower NPE Property & construction ( bn) 29% 7.9 1.4 18% 0.6 8% Portfolio 7.9bn down 0.9bn (10%) due to continued restructuring, write-offs, repayments and the sale of a portfolio of loans 5.9 74% Dec-18 ECL/NPE coverage NPE Criticised Strong / satisfactory 74% of the portfolio is strong / satisfactory NPE 18% of portfolio down from 33% at Dec 17 with coverage of 29% Investment property 6.2bn (78% of the total portfolio) of which 4.9bn is commercial investment 44
Corporate & SME (ex property) Improvement in asset quality of new lending and reduction in NPE Corporate & SME (ex property) ( bn) 19.6 36% 1.0 5% 1.2 6% Portfolio 19.6bn, up 1.9bn Overall improvement in asset quality from upward grade migration in the portfolio and new lending exceeding repayments 17.4 89% NPE Criticised Strong / satisfactory 89% of the portfolio is strong / satisfactory 5% of portfolio is NPE, down from 11% Dec 17 with coverage of 36% Dec-18 ECL/NPE coverage 45
Loan book analysis Breakdown by sector, geography and interest rate type Concentration by sector (%) Dec 2018 Agriculture 3 Energy 2 Manufacturing 5 Property & construction 13 Dec 2018 Loan book by interest rate type (%) Fixed rate Variable rate Republic of Ireland 12 74 86 United Kingdom 1 12 14 Total Total 13 87 100 Distribution 9 Transport 3 Financial 1 Other services 9 Resi mortgages 51 Personal 5 Total 100 Concentration by location (%) Dec 2018 Republic of Ireland 77 United Kingdom 14 North America 5 Rest of World 4 Total 100 Sensitivity of projected net interest income to interest rate movements m 2018 2017 +100 basis points parallel move in all interest rates 211 129-100 basis points parallel move in all interest rates (245) (165) 46
Scaling for sustainable performance Digital transformation across every tier of our technology estate Engagement Leading Digital Banking Capabilities Extensive digital capabilities responsive to customer needs - AIB is deemed to be a Digital Leader amongst global Retail Banks API s Integration Progressive Modernisation Modern, tiered architecture (open, modular, service oriented) Transforming to new ways of working (patterns, agile, devops) Eventing Process Mgmt Robotics Micro-services Insight Improving Data Quality and Availability Big data infrastructure powering business and customer intelligence and delivering efficiency improvements Data Lake Operational Data Stores Comms Hub Real Time Analytics Record Renewing Legacy Systems Major platform replacements substantially improved resilience Simplifying core accounting systems with digital solutions Core Foundations Robust Security and Cloud Enabled Infrastructure Continuous investment in strong cyber capabilities, shift to Cloud Proving capabilities in AI, Biometrics, Robotics and Blockchain Iaas, PaaS Authentication Cyber AI 47
Sustainability Our journey continues. We want to be a leader in Sustainability in Ireland. We are continuing to make positive steps to achieve that ambition. Jun 2017 IPO Oct 2017 First sustainability report (GRI / Deloitte) Backing a Sustainable Future Conference (1) Jan Mar 2018 Materiality exercise (1,300+) May Sep 2018 Purpose workshops Oct 2018 Signatory of BITC Carbon pledge Backing a Sustainable Future Conference (2) First green bond investment 62 to 72nd percentile of staff engagement Formal Governance for Sustainability agreed (SBAC & SBEC) Apr 2017 Launch of Purpose Sep 2017 52 to 62nd percentile of staff engagement Nov 2017 AIB together launch (Education & Social Inclusion), CDP A rating Mar 2018 Second report Materiality Output (GRI / Deloitte) Jun 2018 CDP A rating maintained Renewables /MW / up 33% Jan 2019 Next steps 2019 Reporting (KPIs, NFDs, GRI, Deloitte) ESG Approve & embed framework Alignment with corporate strategy Conference 48
Contacts Our Investor Relations Department will be happy to facilitate your requests for any further information Name email telephone Niamh Hore Head of IR niamh.a.hore@aib.ie +353 1 6411817 Janet McConkey janet.e.mcconkey@aib.ie +353 1 6418974 Siobhain Walsh siobhain.m.walsh@aib.ie +353 1 6411901 Pat Clarke patricia.m.clarke@aib.ie +353 1 6412381 Susan Glynn susan.j.glynn@aib.ie +353 1 7724546 Visit our website at aib.ie/investorrelations 49