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NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY MARKET REPORT TOP 5 NIGERIAN EQUITIES LEAGUE MARKET SUMMARY 6 GTBank: Dodging TH, March 2015 the Bullets A positive week for the Nigerian bourse, NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 3.14% to close on at 31,049.37 and N10.360 trillion respectively. The NSE ASI index currently stood at -10.41 as against -13.14 in the previous week bringing the week-to-date return to 3.14%. All the market indices were positive during the week with the exception of the NSE Insurance Index, NSE Oil/Gas Index and NSE Lotus II Index that closed lower by 0.12%, 2.00%, and 1.75% respectively. Expectedly, the NSE Alternative Securities Market ASeM Index closed flat. ly Market Report Nigerian Stock Exchange YTD Performance (NSE ASI) -10.41 Market Outlook NEUTRAL Market Capitalization 31,049.37 YTD Return NSE 30-8.79 NSE Banking Index 2.39 NSE Insurance Index -5.39 NSE Consumer Goods Index -13.24 NSE Oil & Gas Index -0.46 NSE Lotus II -8.27 NSE Industrial Goods Index -8.31 NSE ASeM Index -0.03 A turnover of 2.133 billion shares worth N24.386 billion in 22,532 deals were traded this week by investors on the floor of The Exchange in contrast to a total of 1.675 billion shares valued at N21.315 billion that exchanged hands last week in 21,062 deals. Expectedly, the Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 1.797 billion shares valued at N14.192 billion traded in 14,424 deals; thus contributing 84.24% and 58.20% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. Investors are upbeat that the banks will have positive earnings. The Conglomerates Industry followed with a turnover of 119.519 million shares worth N630.211 million in 1,216 deals. The third place was occupied by the Consumer Goods Industry with 100.121 million shares worth N6.595 billion in 3,307 deals. Trading in the Top Three Equities namely- FBN Holdings Plc, Access Bank Plc and United Bank for Africa Plc (measured by volume) accounted for 966.582 million shares worth N6.790 billion in 5,901 deals, contributing 45.31% and 27.84% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. M O R G A N C A P I T A L R E S E A R C H L A G O S, N I G E R I A. OGUNLANA Olanrewaju lanreo@morgancapitalgroup.com +234-8160106231 OYINLOYE Pelumi pelumio@morgancapitalgroup.com
Ended, March 6, 2015 Ranking NSE For the Ticker Bloomberg Ticker Current Price (NGN) TOP 5 STOCKS Recommended Entry Price (NGN) Investment Horizon (Months) Fair Value/ Entry Price (NGN) Expected Return (%) 52 High 52 Low 1 TRANSCORP TRANSCORP:NL 2.80 2.80 or Less 12 5.10 82.14 6.50 2.28 2 JBERGER JBERGER:NL 42.99 42.99 or Less 12 75.00 74.46 76.45 38.08 3 FBNH FIRSTBAN:NL 8.81 8.81 or Less 12 14.22 61.41 16.29 6.37 4 DIAMOND BANK DIAMOND:NL 4.51 4.51 or Less 12 7.23 60.31 6.89 3.45 5 CCNN CCNN:NL 11.46 11.46 or Less 12 15.40 34.38 15.75 8.75 Source: MorganCapital Research COMMENTARY 1. Transcorp: retains the top spot on our weekly stock picks despite ending the week on a positive note. The company currently has an upside potential of 82.14 down from 90.30% last week based on our research. The company gained some weight in the course of the prevailing bullish trading sessions. The uncertainty and negative general wellbeing in the Nigerian Economy still continues to weigh down the stock. Our long term outlook for the company is still positive and we expect the company to trade at our target price within the next 12months. 2. JBerger: this stock made its entry into the top 5 equities league three weeks ago taking the second spot. The company retains the second spot this week. Based on the current economic situation, the price has depreciated creating an upside potential of 74.46%. The fall in the price of the stock is mainly due to the shrinking of the real economy of Nigeria. As the level of stability is restored in the economy over the horizon of 12 months, the stock will thrive towards its fair price. 3. FBNH: The stock retained its 3rd position on our top 5 equities league this week. FBNH currently has an upside potential 61.41% down from 84.68% last week. The stock gained some weight in the last couple of weeks as a result of high earnings expectation. We anticipate a positive earnings result for the bank we also expect the bank to pay dividend. The stock is still undervalued and currently trading below its book value. It s a dividend paying stock, we therefore expect the price to spike. Based on our valuation, we expect the stock to move towards its fair price in the next 52 weeks. 4. DiamondBnk: makes its entry into the top 5 equities league two weeks ago holding the forth position on the table for the third week. The exit of major investors due to the uncertainty in the economy is one of the factors that have driven the stock down, creating 60.31% room for gain. We expect the stock to move towards its fair value when stability is restored in the economy. Our expectation is based on a 12 month horizon. 5. CCNN retains the last spot on the top 5 equities league this week. Following a price decline of the company s shares in the past few weeks, further driving the stock away from its fair value. The stock gained some weight during week reducing the upside potential to 34.38% based on our research. An undervalued stock trading below its book value with huge potential for growth.
2.70 2.85 2.85 2.8 2.8 TRANSCORP TRANSCORP 7.90 8.05 8.25 8.00 8.81 FBNH FBNH 4.07 4.27 4.28 4.1 4.51 DIAMONDBNK DIAMONDBNK 44.00 46.20 46.09 41.61 42.99 JBERGER JBERGER 10.70 10.70 10.70 10.70 11.46 CCNN CCNN
Opening Close ly Change Wtd Mtd Qtd Ytd The NSE All-Share Index (ASI) 30,103.81 31,049.37 945.56 3.14 3.14-10.41-10.41 NSE 30 Index 1,370.21 1,425.74 55.53 4.05 4.05-8.79-8.79 NSE Banking Index 327.72 359.80 32.08 9.79 9.79 2.39 2.39 NSE Insurance Index 141.75 141.58-0.17-0.12-0.12-5.39-5.39 NSE Consumer Goods Index 769.36 783.93 14.57 1.89 1.89-13.24-13.24 NSE Oil & Gas Index 386.09 378.36-7.73-2.00-2.00-0.46-0.46 NSE Lotus II 2,094.81 2,058.23-36.58-1.75-1.75-8.27-8.27 NSE Industrial Goods Index 1,924.77 1,961.82 37.05 1.92 1.92-8.31-8.31 NSE ASeM Index 1,212.94 1,212.94 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.03-0.03 Source: MorganCapital Research and Nigerian Stock Exchange YTD High YTD Low YTD Return (%) 52 High 52 Low Transcorp 3.25 2.28-13.85 6.50 2.28 Julius Berger 60.66 38.08-29.13 76.45 38.08 FBNH 8.81 6.37 0.11 16.29 6.37 Diamond Bank 5.58 3.45-19.18 6.89 3.45 CCNN 11.46 8.93 10.30 15.75 8.75 Source: MorganCapital Research Price Price Price Price Price TRANSCORP 2.70 2.85 2.85 2.8 2.8 FBNH 7.90 8.05 8.25 8.00 8.81 DIAMONDBNK 4.07 4.27 4.28 4.1 4.51 JBERGER 44.00 46.20 46.09 41.61 42.99 CCNN 10.70 10.70 10.70 10.70 11.46 Source: MorganCapital Research
We urge our subscribers to continue to invest based on the principles of sound fundamentals at good entry prices bearing in mind that in a bear market, stocks with good fundamentals have the capacity to retain value, and even when their prices crash, they are the quickest off the mark in price appreciation when the market For other stocks that make up the top ten on our league table and other company specific research reports, investors can send their enquires to customercare@morgancapitalgroup.com. Our research is based purely on fundamentals and emerging verifiable information. Kindly note that our league table is subject to change based on fluctuations of market prices and/or a review of our fair value estimates. These reviews are based on fundamentals and verifiable information coming from the companies. Disclaimer The contents of this report are obtained from publicly available sources and in good faith but no representation or warranty, either express or implied, are made to its accuracy or completeness. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, where mentioned. This report is distributed (through e-mails) in the United States, Europe, Asia and Africa by MorganCapital Securities Limited and its Sister Companies within the MorganCapital Group all operating in Lagos, for general circulation only. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to specific clients. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors thus investors must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific financial situations, investment horizons and investment objectives. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor's currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the financial instrument, such an investor effectively assumes currency risk. In addition, income from an investment may fluctuate and the price or value of financial instruments described in this report, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. MorganCapital Securities Limited and its sister companies within the MorganCapital group are not licensed to distribute research reports in the US, Europe, Asia or other African countries thus this document must not be acted on or relied upon by persons who are not Relevant Persons, as defined in the paragraph below. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant Persons are persons who are clients or staff employed by MorganCapital Securities Limited or its sister companies within the MorganCapital Group. MorganCapital Securities Ltd The Pent Floor 3, Biaduo Street, Off Keffi Street S/West Ikoyi. Lagos P.O.Box 75691 Victoria Island, Lagos. +234-1-2714713-4, www.morgancapitalgroup.com.