1 = Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 115 15 95 85 Durable and Semi-durable Indices Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma Durable Index sa Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index = = 1 13 1 Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) 7 * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector %YoY Private Consumption Indicators H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 P Sep Oct P %MoM sa Non-durable index 1.2.8 1.6 1.2.9 -.2-2.1 2.1.7 Semi-durable index.7.6.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 3. 5.4.3 Durable index 8. 6.8 9. 6.3 1.4 1.6 6.1 1.8.2 Service index 7.1 5.6 8.6 7.2 6.6 4.7 2.9 4.7 E 1. E (less) Net tourist spending 17.6 11.1 24.3 8.9 4.8-1.3-6.3-8.8 -.4 PCI 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.6 4.3 5.8 2.5 6.5 1. Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated 1 15 13
2 P = Preliminary Data %YoY (%YoY) Farm Income H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Nominal farm income P 3.8 16.4-6.5-1.9 5. 2.4-4. 3.9 Agricultural production P 6.8 11.4 3.5 11.8 11.6 5.9 2.2 4.2 Agricultural price -2.8 4.4-9.6-12.2-5.9-3.3-6. -.4 4 3 2 1-1 Contribution to Growth: Farm Income -2 Apr Oct Apr Paddy rice Sugarcane Cassava Rubber Fruit Oil palm Livestock Shrimp Others Total Farm Income Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT 3.9 Index = 1 Real Income Transfer of salary through FI sa, 3mma (Baht/person)* Transfer of salary through FI sa Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer. 2) Oct figures were estimated by the BOT Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) 7 5 4 Consumer Confidence Index Total Current Next 6 months Average 5 years = 76.
3 Index sa ( = ) Bn baht 2 15 5-5 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Debt Equity 3MMA -17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Index sa ( =) 1, m 2 9mma 7, Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value. Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 7 % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct P %MoM sa -.8-1.9.3 1.3.2-3.7-5.6-7.2 E -.8 E Construction Materials Index -.9-1.8. -1.8.5 4.7 -.6 12.6 6.7 Real Imports of Capital Goods 2.2 1.5 2.9 4. 6.6 -.6-1.7 2.4 3.7 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.1 1. 1.2 3.1 9.9 6.9-1.6 3. E -1.4 E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators 5.7 2.8 9. 3. 6.8 6.3-11.5 7.5 6.2 PII 1.3.8 1.9 2.3 5.4 2.3-1.8 2.5 1.5 Capacity Utilization (SA) - - - 68.2 69.2 68.5 67.7 69.4 -
4 Sep = 2.7 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 2.4 Bn USD %YoY Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data Oct = 21.7 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 21.3 Bn USD P P Share P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct Ex. Gold+Petroleum related Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. %MoM sa Agriculture 7.6 2.2 2. 2.4-1.6 7.8 1.3 1.1 11.7 -.1 Fishery.9 4.1 5.3 3.1 9.3-9.7-15.4-18.5-5.9 3.8 Manufacturing 87.5 1.2 9. 11.4 14.1 1.7 6.7 -.5 7.5 5.2 Agro-manufacturing Products Export Value 12.3 12.6 1.4 14.7 6.5 8.4 5.8 -.9 9.9 6.4 Electronics 15. 14. 13.2 14.8 13.6 11.3 3.6-2.5 1.2 1.1 Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 6.7 5.6 9.6 3.6-3.4-8.3 -.6.8 Automotive 15. 6.3 2.4 1. 15.8 14.4 6.2-6. -5.5 8. Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 7.6 6.7 9.7 7.7 4.1 1.8 9.7 -.7 Petroleum Related 11.5 19. 18.4 19.6 26.2 26.5 19.7 7.3 25.7 1.5 Total (BOP basis). 9.8 7.3 12.2 9.9 12.3 2.6-5.5 8.4 5. Ex. Gold - 1.9 9.5 12.2 11.2 11.9 5.4-1. 7. 4.4-9.9 8.5 11.2 9.3 9.9 3.5-2.2 4.4 3.4 Ex.gold 13 7 Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma ( =) Japan* China EU US ASEAN5 ME ID ex.oil & Gas TH ex.gold SG MY KR TW CN
5 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share 211 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct P %MoM sa Food & Beverages 2.2 3.6 2.2 5.1 2.3 3.5 -.5.5 8.3 6.7 Automotive 16.9 3.6-3.3 1.8 11.3 1. 1.8-4.5 15.6 5. - Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.4 7.7 5.1 4.2-3.3 17.5 12.5 - Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1-7.8 1.8 12.4 12.2 4.8-3.1 11.4 -.4 - Engine 6.3 7. -3.5 18.8 14.3 15.3 -.8-5.2 22. 6.4 Rubbers & Plastics 1. 7.1.8 13.8-1.7-3.3-2.5-8.9-14.5-2.8 Chemicals 8.2 2.4 -.8 5.7 8.9 8. 3. -.6 1.3 1. IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 8.7 2.5 2.7 3.8 11.2 7.1-3.1-9.7 Textiles & Apparels 5.5-5.1-2.9-7.4-5.7-6.8-2.7-6. -2.9-2.9 Cement & Construction 4.7-1.7-1.7-1.7 1.4 4.6 5.8 1.3 7.1 -.4 Electrical Appliances 4.1-6.9-4.6-9.7.8-1.2 2.5-1.3 7.1 3.5 HDD 3.2 14. 14.2 13.9 1.2 16.6 4.4 -.6-3.6-2.8 Petroleum 3.1 5. 3.7 6.1 2.6 3.9 1. 8.6 9.8 4.1 Others 16.5 -.1.4 -.5 -.9. -6.5-9.7 1.7 2.9 MPI. 2.5.5 4.7 4.1 3.7.9-2.7 4.1 2.1 MPI sa % from last period. -.6 3.7..8 1.6 -.9 2.1 - Capacity Utilization (SA) - 67.1 66.1 68. 68.2 69.2 68.5 67.7 69.4 - Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 211) P = Preliminary data Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT Index sa ( = ) 115 85 Export<3% 3%<Export<% Export>% 7 Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Index sa ( = ) 115 85 7 Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma) MPI Classified by Export Share Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production * The latest month was estimated by the BOT
6 Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 1 5 4 3 2 1 Oct -4.4% avg. FY-18 FY FY219 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) Oct 6.2% avg. FY-18 FY FY219 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Fiscal Position (Cash basis) Billion Baht FY FY FY Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments FY219 P Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Revenue 2,354 2,513 758 671 292 218 (%YoY) (-2.4) (6.8) (8.7) (8.9) (9.9) (15.9) Expenditure 1/ 2,795 2,882 731 6 229 429 (%YoY) (2.2) (3.1) (14.) (2.3) (11.4) (.8) Budgetary B/L -441-368 28 65 63-211 Non-Budgetary B/L 35-28 53-7 -6-37 Cash B/L (CG) -46-396 81-5 57-248 Net Financing 489 56 83 212 96-4 Treasury B/L 524 633 427 633 633 381 Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
7 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct P YTD No. of tourists ( ) 35,592 17,367 18,225 1,9 8,873 9, 2,656 2,712 31,254 %YoY 9.4 5.2 13.8 15.5 8.4 1.9 2.1 -.5 7.8 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - 3.5.4-3.5 -.1-1.2 - Index sa ( = ) 35 3 Tourists Classified by Nationality Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 1%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) 25 2 15 5 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data
8 Sep = 18.7 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 17.7 Bn USD %YoY Oct = 2.4 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 19.6 Bn USD P P Share P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct %MoM sa Consumer 1.3 7.5 4.7 1.2 2.3 12.7 7.1 5.3 16.2 2.7 Raw mat & Interm 53.3 15.7 16.9 14.5 19.5 21.2 21.3 18.8 16.4 2.6 o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 27.6 24.7 29.6 51.6 53.1 51.6 21.7 8.7 o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Import Value 4.2 12.6 14. 11.4 16.2 12. 11.6 8.9 14.4.2 Capital 25.4 8.5 1. 7.1 6.7 4.2-5.9-12. -.3 2.9 Others 11.1 27.9 22. 32.9 25.9 4.3 35.3 28.8 7.6-3.2 Total (BOP basis). 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.9 16.8 17. 14.3 13.3 1.3 Ex. Gold - 1.7 11. 1.5 17.7 17.9 14.2 12.5 13.3 2. Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 8.5 8.2 15.5 12.2 7.6 6.1 11.5.6 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Import Value Index Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 4 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data
9 % Unemployment rate (sa) Employed persons (%YoY) Underemployment rate %YoY 3 2 1-1 Labor Market Indicators H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 (1.2) 1.1 (1.) Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT 1. (1.) 1. (1.) 1. (1.) -.6 -.1-1.1 -.2.9 1.7 1.9 2.6.8.9.7.9.7.8.7.7 Headline inflation contribution Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%) -2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT Oct 1.23% Thousand persons sa, 3mma 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, %YoY 3 2 1 Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS) Core inflation contribution Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) Thousand persons sa, 3mma 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Oct.75%
1 Balance of Payments P P Billion USD P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct E YTD Trade Balance 34.2 16.6 17.6 6.6 5.8 3.4 2. 1.3 17.1 Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 112.3 122.9 61.8 63. 63.4 2.7 21.7 29.9 %YoY 9.8 7.3 12.2 9.9 12.3 2.6-5.5 8.4 8.1 Imports (f.o.b.) 21.1 95.8 15.3 55.2 57.2. 18.7 2.4 192.8 %YoY 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.9 16.8 17. 14.3 13.3 16.8 Net Services, Income & Transfers 16.1 6.4 9.6 8.4.8.8.4.6 1.7 Current Account 5.2 23. 27.2 15.1 6.7 4.2 2.4 1.9 27.8 Capital and Financial Account -12.6-9.9-2.7-4.3-5.1-1.4.2-1.9-12.7 Overall Balance 26. 1.2 15.8 12. -4.3.3 1. -.9 7.1 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
11 Millions of USD P P P H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct E YTD 1. Assets -35,112-19,85-16,27-5,328-1,648-8,213-4,9-646 -15,836 TDI -18,632-6,727-11,4-5,81-2,369-4,519-2,825-553 -12,522 - Equity -9,31-2,53-6,798-1,871-1,317-3,187-2,58-379 -6,755 Thai Portfolio investment -11,551-6,324-5,226-2,68 1,549-1,533-527 -552-2,4 - Equity security investment -7,668-3,567-4,11-3,51-889 -336 21-434 -5,161 - Debt security investment -3,882-2,758-1,125 1,433 2,439-1,197-548 -118 2,557 Loans -827-387 -44 27-697 699-86 -36-7 Other Investments -4,12-5,646 1,544 1,794-131 -2,8-1,473 495-73 - Trade credits -6,467-2,313-4,153-1,178-1,613-659 638 1-3,449 2. Liabilities 22,682 9,217 13,465 1,674-3,411 6,6 5,92-1,296 3,774 FDI 8,46 4,137 3,8 4,648 2,264 2,479 955 776 1,166 - Equity 5,122 2,243 2,879 1,279 1,457 1,818 4 535 5,88 Foreign Portfolio investment 9,41 3,8 5,593-882 -5,628 4,828 2,417-958 -2,64 - Equity security investment 598 63-32 -693-3,942 468 656-1,721-5,889 - Debt security investment 8,2 3,178 5,624-188 -1,686 4,3 1,761 763 3,249 Loans 5,24 1,5 3,6-1,726 943 662 1,733-357 -479 Other Investments -4-38 34-366 -989-1,162-13 -757-3,274 - Trade credits 3,783 1,342 2,441-4 829-675 -25 544 28 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -12,429-9,868-2,562-3,654-5,59-1,47 183-1,942-12,62 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Net Financial Flows
12 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% -1% % 1% -2% -3% -4% Exchange Rate Movement end of Oct 18 compared to end of Sep 18 26 Nov 18 compared to end of Oct 18 Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg % p.a. 1% % (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) KRW GBP THB EUR IDR INR TWD CNY SGD MYR VND JPY PHP Index ( = ) Times NEER REER USDTHB 6 Nov 114.1 5 Oct 17.9 4 Nov 3 99.9 THB Appreciation Nov (Average data until 26 Oct ) 8% 6% 4% 2% 3-Dec-16 24--17 15-Feb-17 8-Mar-17 29-Mar-17 24-Apr-17 17-May-17 7-Jun-17 28-Jun-17 2--17 11-Aug-17 4-Sep-17 25-Sep-17 17-Oct-17 9-Nov-17 3-Nov-17 25-Dec-17 17--18 7-Feb-18 28-Feb-18 22-Mar-18 17-Apr-18 9-May-18 31-May-18 21-Jun-18 12--18 6-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 18-Sep-18 9-Oct-18 1-Nov-18 22-Nov-18 2 1 21 Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) 211 212 Reserves/Short-term Debt 213 Latest data 26 Nov Q18 Q2 Q3 Oct E 3.2 Sep-18 Oct-18