1 Nielsen s FMCG Index & Fuel Index = = 115 15 95 85 = Durable and Semi-durable Indices Nielsen s FMCG Index sa, 3mma Fuel Index, sa Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS) Semi-durable Index sa,3mma Durable Index sa, 3mma = 13 7 Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index %YoY Private Consumption Indicators Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated 1 15 13 Service Index sa, 3mma Non-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS) H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P %MoM sa Non-durable index 1.2 1.2 1. 1.4 -.1 3. 3.1 3.1 1. Semi-durable index.7 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 -.1 Durable index 8. 8.4 8.4 8.5 1.6 6.8 7.7 2.6-2.2 Service index 7.1 5.1 6.9 3.4 4.5 2.3 2.5.5 E 1.1 E (less) Net tourist spending 17.6 -.6 7.1-7.7-1.3-5.1-1.3-5.5-1.2 PCI 2.2 4.5 3.9 5.1 5.7 4.6 3.8 3.5 1.1 = 1 1
2 P = Preliminary Data %YoY 4 3 2 1-1 (%YoY) Farm Income H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Nominal farm income P 4. -.4 2.2-1.7-1.7-1.2-6. 1.4 Agricultural production P 7. 5.5 12.2.4 1.3 -.1-4.2 3.1 Agricultural price -2.8-5.7-8.9-2.1-3. -1.2-1.8-1.6 Contribution to Growth: Farm Income -2 Apr Oct Apr Oct ข าวเปล อก อ อย ม นส าปะหล ง ยางพารา ผลไม ปาล มน าม น ปศ ส ตว ก ง อ นๆ รวมส นค าเกษตร Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT 1.4 Index = 1 Diffusion Index, sa (Unchanged = ) 7 5 4 Consumer Confidence Index Total Current Next 6 months Real Income Transfer of salary through FI sa, 3mma (Baht/person)* Transfer of salary through FI sa Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa, 3mma Farm Income sa Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer. 2) Nov figures were estimated by the BOT Average 5 years = 76.
3 (%YoY) Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Share 211 Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 211) P = Preliminary data H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P %MoM sa Food & Beverages 2.2 3.6 2.5 2.8 2. -.5 4.5 3.9 1.8-14.2 Automotive 16.9 3.6 8.8 1.6 7. 1.8 12.4 6.4 9.1 1.6 - Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 7.3 6.4 8.1 4.2 12. 3.1 17.2 5.3 - Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1 1.5 12.3 8.8 4.8 12.9 5.9 6.9 1.3 - Engine 6.3 7. 1.7 14.8 7. -.8 15. 11.4 7.8 -.7 Rubbers & Plastics 1. 7.1-5.8-2.5-8.8-2.5-14.7-11.9-17.6 -.4 Chemicals 8.2 2.4 4.9 8.4 1.5 3..1-2.2.8 4.1 IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 5.3 3.3 7.3 11.2 3.3 6.4 7..7 Textiles & Apparels 5.5-5.1-4.3-6.2-2.4-2.7-2.1-4.. 1.7 Cement & Construction 4.7-1.7 4. 3. 5. 5.8 4.1 3. 1. -1.1 Electrical Appliances 4.1-6.9 1.1 -.2 2.9 2.5 3.3 -.1 4.4 1. HDD 3.2 14. 4. 13.4-3.9 4.4-11.5-7.2-21.8-1.6 Petroleum 3.1 5. 1.5 11.7 9.4 1. 8.8 1.2 6.6-2.4 Others 16.5 -.1-2. -.5-3.7-6.5 -.7-3.7 -.9-1.4 MPI. 2.5 2.8 3.9 1.7.9 2.4.9.8-3.1 MPI sa % from last period. - -.5 2.9 1.5 1.9 1.6-3.1 - Capacity Utilization (SA) - 67.1 68.9 68.7 69.1 68.7 69.5 7.4 67.8 - Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT Index sa ( = ) Export<3% 3%<Export<% Export>% Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT Index sa ( = ) MPI Classified by Export Share Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production * The latest month was estimated by the BOT Industrial Electricity Consumption* Quantity of Imported Raw Materials Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
4 Index sa ( = ) Bn baht 2 15 5-5 Investment in Machinery and Equipment Real Imports of Capital Goods Domestic Machinery Sales Car Registered for Investment Sources of Corporate Financing Business Credits (SA) Debt Equity 3MMA -17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Index sa ( =) 1, m 2 9mma 7, Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value. Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data 7 Investment in Construction Construction Materials Index Permitted Construction Area (RHS) % YoY Permitted Construction Area (9mma) 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, H1 H2 Q3 Q4 P Nov Dec P %MoM sa -.8-2.9.8-6.6-3.7-9.4 E -8.4-12.8 E -5. E Construction Materials Index -.9 2.7 -.7 6.3 4.7 7.9 7.6 2.6-6.6 Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.4 2. 3. 1. -.6 2.7 6.5-1.2-6.4 Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.1 6.5 6.4 6.6 8.4 4.9 E 3.7 5.5 E 5. E Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment Private Investment Indicators 5.7 5.7 4.9 6.6 6.3 6.9 2.6 11.8 -.1 PII 1.6 3. 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 3. 1.9 -.7 Capacity Utilization (SA) - - 68.7 69.1 68.7 69.5 7.4 67.8 -
5 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec P No. of tourists ( ) 35,592 38,277 19,482 18,796 9, 9,735 3,178 3,846 %YoY 9.4 7.5 12.2 3.1 1.9 4.3 4.5 7.7 %QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - -3. 3.2 4.2 5.6 Index sa ( = ) 35 3 Tourists Classified by Nationality Total China (share 28%) Malaysia (share 1%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 3%) Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%) 25 2 15 5 Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in
6 Nov = 21.3 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 21. Bn USD %YoY Share Export Value Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data Dec = 19.5 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 19.1 Bn USD P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec %MoM sa Agriculture 7.6 2.2.1 3. -2.8 1.3-6.5-14.9-12.5-6.7 Fishery.9 4.1-6.5-1.4-1.9-15.4-6.2-7.9-4.6 4. Manufacturing 87.5 1.2 8.4 12.8 4.4 6.7 2.1 -.3 -.9-1.5 Agro-manufacturing products 12.3 12.6 6.3 8.5 4.2 5.8 2.7 -.2-1.6 -.2 Electronics 15. 14. 5. 12.4-1.5 3.6-6.2-7.7-12. -4.9 Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 1.7 6.6-3.5-3.4-3.6-4.7-5.6 -.4 Automotive 15. 6.3 8. 15.3 1.5 6.2-2.9-4.7 2. 3.1 Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 6.9 1.3 3.7 4.1 3.2.7 -.7.5 Petroleum Related 11.5 19. 22. 26.5 18. 19.7 16.4 15.9 7.4-4.3 Total (BOP basis). 9.8 7.7 13.5 2.4 2.6 2.3.2-1.6-1.2 Ex. Gold 1.9 8.5 14. 3.4 5.4 1.4 -.6-2. -1.6 Ex. Gold+Petroleum related 9.9 6.7 12.4 1.4 3.5 -.6-2.9-3.3-1.2 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Ex.gold 13 7 Thai Export to Major Destinations Index sa, 3mma ( =) * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma ( =) Japan* China US EU ASEAN5 ME ID ex.oil & Gas SG MY TH ex.gold TW CN KR
7 Nov = 2.7 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 2. Bn USD %YoY Share Dec = 17.1 Bn USD Ex. Gold = 16.7 Bn USD P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec %MoM sa Consumer 1.3 7.5 12.2 16.6 8.2 7.1 9.2 9.1 2.2-2.2 Raw mat & Interm 53.3 15.7 18.8 19.5 18.1 21.3 14.9 25.8 2.6-12.2 o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 4.1 36.9 43. 53.1 34.6 76.8 12.5-24.4 o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel Import Value 4.2 12.6 11.8 14.1 9.6 11.6 7.6 9.4-1.4-5.8 Capital 25.4 8.5 1. 5.6-3.2-5.9 -.6 4.2-6.3-13.3 Others 11.1 27.9 9. 15.1 4.4 35.3-21.5-6.5-51.2-16.2 Total (BOP basis). 13.2 14.3 16.6 12.1 17. 7.5 16.2-6.7-1.6 Ex. Gold - 1.7 14.9 17.1 13. 14.2 11.9 19.4 2.5-9.3 Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 1.4 13.6 7.4 7.6 7.3 9.6.4-5.3 Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Import Value Index Total imports Raw materials ex. fuel* Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel 4 * Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in others in the accompanying table. Index sa, 3mma ( =) Value Quantity Price Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data P = Preliminary data
8 Central Government Current Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) 1 1 5 4 3 2 1 Dec 4.% avg. FY-18 FY FY219 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Central Government Capital Expenditure Billion baht (Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other) Dec -14.2% avg. FY-18 FY FY219 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht FY FY Fiscal Position (Cash basis) FY FY219 P Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec Revenue 2,354 2,513 758 671 613 2 25 (%YoY) (-2.4) (6.8) (8.7) (8.9) (12.4) (3.5) (.8) Expenditure 1/ 2,795 2,882 731 6 924 226 269 (%YoY) (2.2) (3.1) (14.) (2.3) (-2.2) (-1.9) (-6.8) Budgetary B/L -441-368 28 65-311 -26-64 Non-Budgetary B/L 35-28 53-7 -26 6-6 Cash B/L (CG) -46-396 81-5 -337-19 -7 Net Financing 489 56 83 212 84 66 22 Treasury B/L 524 633 427 633 3 427 3 Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments Sources: Comptroller General s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
9 Labor Market Indicators % Unemployment rate (sa) Employed persons (%YoY) Underemployment rate %YoY 3 2 1-1 1.2 1.1 H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec 1.2 (1.2) 1.1 (1.) 1. (1.).9 (1.) 1. (1.).9 (1.1) -.6 1.1 -.2.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.8.8.8.9.7.8.6.5.6 Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT Headline inflation contribution Raw food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core (72.56%) -2 Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT Dec.36% Thousand persons sa, 3mma 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 23, %YoY 3 2 1 Employment Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa) Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS) Rent (19.62%) Food & Beverage (28.17%) Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%) Thousand persons sa, 3mma 15, Core inflation contribution 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Dec.68%
1 Balance of Payments P Billion USD P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E Trade Balance 34.2 23.6 15.8 7.8 3.4 4.4.7 2.5 Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 253.4 127.5 125.9 63.4 62.5 21.3 19.5 %YoY 9.8 7.7 13.5 2.4 2.6 2.3.2-1.6 Imports (f.o.b.) 21.1 229.8 111.7 118.1. 58.1 2.7 17.1 %YoY 13.2 14.3 16.6 12.1 17. 7.5 16.2-6.7 Net Services, Income & Transfers 16.1 14.1 9.2 4.9.8 4.1 1. 2.5 Current Account 5.2 37.7 25. 12.7 4.2 8.5 1.6 5. Capital and Financial Account -12.6-22.2-13.8-8.5-4.2-4.3 -.3-2. Overall Balance 26. 7.3 7.6 -.4.3 -.7.4 -.2 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
11 Millions of USD P P P H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec E 1. Assets -35,112-26,2-11,446-15,456-9,66-6,3-2,746-2,998 TDI -18,632-18,133-1,521-7,611-5,563-2,49-6 -815 - Equity -9,31-7,722-3,1-4,532-3,331-1,21-511 -311 Thai Portfolio investment -11,551-2,24-43 -1,773-1,358-415 -39 445 - Equity security investment -7,668-4,696-4,391-34 -282-23 559-148 - Debt security investment -3,882 2,492 3,961-1,469-1,77-392 -868 593 Loans -827-1,217-1,47-17 566-736 -37-664 Other Investments -4,12-5,348 553-5,1-2,712-3,1-1,72-1,964 - Trade credits -6,467-2,727-2,791 64-659 723 723-1 2. Liabilities 22,682 5,282-1,697 6,979 4,873 2,16 2,411 991 FDI 8,46 12,462 6,986 5,476 3,176 2,3 797 727 - Equity 5,122 6,269 2,826 3,443 1,819 1,624 47 619 Foreign Portfolio investment 9,41-3,228-6,545 3,318 2,583 735 2,145-452 - Equity security investment 598-7, -4,632-2,468-262 -2,26-3 -124 - Debt security investment 8,2 3,873-1,913 5,786 2,845 2,94 2,55-328 Loans 5,24 1,962-783 2,745 439 2,36 349 2,314 Other Investments -4-5,915-1,355-4,5-1,326-3,234-8 -1,598 - Trade credits 3,783-1,911 339-2,25-675 -1,575-796 -1,323 Total Financial Flows (1+2) -12,429-21,62-13,143-8,477-4,194-4,284-334 -2,7 Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Net Financial Flows
12 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% (Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD) IDR GBP PHP INR SGD TWD KRW VND EUR MYR THB CNY JPY Index ( = ) NEER REER USDTHB Exchange Rate Movement end of Dec 18 compared to end of Nov 18 24 19 compared to end of Dec 18 THB Appreciation Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg 219 % p.a. 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -19 116.3 Dec-18 17.1-19 13.2 219 (Average data until 24 219) 3-Dec-16 24--17 Times 6 5 4 3 2 1 15-Feb-17 8-Mar-17 21 Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD) 29-Mar-17 24-Apr-17 17-May-17 7-Jun-17 28-Jun-17 2--17 11-Aug-17 211 212 213 4-Sep-17 25-Sep-17 17-Oct-17 9-Nov-17 3-Nov-17 25-Dec-17 17--18 7-Feb-18 28-Feb-18 22-Mar-18 17-Apr-18 9-May-18 31-May-18 21-Jun-18 Reserves/Short-term Debt Q18 Latest data 24 219 12--18 6-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 18-Sep-18 9-Oct-18 1-Nov-18 22-Nov-18 17-Dec-18 9--19 Q2 Q3 Q4 Dec E 3.3 Nov-18 Dec-18