Economic & Update August If you have any questions or comments, please contact: Steven Rick, Chief Economist CUNA Mutual Group Economics.., Ext.. steve.rick@cunamutual.com CUNA Mutual Group Proprietary Reproduction, Adaptation or Distribution Prohibited CUNA Mutual Group, All Rights Reserved. Minute Federal Reserve Board Meeting Federal Reserve s Dual Mandate. Stables Prices. Full Employment of Resources Federal Reserve Critical Measures Long-Run Equilibrium Actual Goal Inflation Rate %.% Unemployment Rate %.% Economic Output Gap %.% Fed Funds Interest %.% Rate -Year Treasury Rate %.% Stronger Economic Growth in, around., and.% in % U.S. Economic Growth Rate %.% %.%.%.% %.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% %.%.%.%.%.%.% % % % % % % % % Inflation Core PCE Price Index ( Change From Quarter One Year Ago) % % % % -.% -% -% -.% -% -% -% -.% -% Economic Growth Rate Long Run Growth Rate -% -% % Inflation Forecast Inflation Fed's %Target % : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : % % Source: Department of Commerce. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Positive GDP Output Gap in With the Economy Moving Above its Potential Level of Output GDP Output Gap vs. Federal Funds Rate %.% %.% Output Gap (Left Axis) % Federal Funds Rate (Right Axis).% %.% %.% %.% %.% -%.% -%.% -%.% -%.% -%.% -%.% -%.% -%.% Source: CBO & Federal Reserve. Risks to Markets and Economy in. U.S. inflation moving higher => interest rate moving up faster than expected.. ECB exiting QE in Qtr... Negative EU government bond rates coming to an end, impacting global bond markets.. U.S. Investment Grade and High Yield bond spreads to widen because of lower foreign appetite.. New Fed leadership to be tested (will Jerome Powell be politically driven, or driven by incoming data).. Rising term premia in Treasuries as global central bank QE comes to an end.. Valuation and fundamentals mismatch in US equities, are markets ready for a small correction.. Bitcoin crash, confidence impact on retail investors.. Bigger than expected positive economic impact of U.S. tax reform than expected.. Continued rise in US inequality => more dissatisfied voters => more populism coming.. Special prosecutor Robert Mueller s Russia investigation.. Rising commodity prices.. Housing bubble burst in china => China equity market correction => slower Chinese economic growth. Improving Credit Quality As Unemployment Falls CU Delinquency Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Unemployment (Left Axis) Loan Delinquency Rate (Right Axis).% Natural Delinquency Rate (Right Axis).% Full Employment Target (Left Axis) Forecast.... % % % % % CU Net Chargeoff Rate Versus Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Left Axis) Net Chargeoff Rate (Right Axis).% Natural Chargeoff Rate (Right Axis).%.%.%.%.%. %.%.. % % %.%.%.%. %.%.. % % %.%.%.%. %.%. % : : : : : : : : : : : :.% Source: Department of Labor, NCUA,CUNA Rising Interest Rates and Yield Curve Shifting Up Interest Rates and s Fed Funds. Treasury Yield Curves. -yr Treas -Year Treas Forecast Fed Funds Forecast % "Equilibrium" Fed Funds Rate.... Yield to Maturity......... January.. June. Years to Maturity The Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds interest rate.% in and.% in. The Fed believes the new neutral fed funds rate is.%, the rate which is neither accommodative or restrictive. Interest rates will normalize in at levels below previous plateaus due to lower real interest rates and lower expected inflation. The Fed is slowly ending its reinvestment program. The reduction of the current size of the Fed s balance sheet will lessen the depressing effect on the term premium on long-term bonds. Expect the yield curve to flatten over the next two years as short-term interest rates rise faster than longer term interest rates, which typically leads to downward pressure on bank net interest margins.
Rising Return-on-Equity Ratios Return on Equity (Net Income to Capital)................... Return on Equity.............. < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $- $-$ >$ $ $ Credit union return-on-equity ratios are expected to rise to.% in as return-on-asset ratios rise to.%. A higher ROE ratio allows for faster asset growth, which then leads to lower operating expense ratios, higher profit margins, and ultimately greater earnings. The disparity between large and small credit unions return-on-equity ratios remained large in. Credit unions with assets exceeding $ lion reported ROE ratios of.%, more than twice that reported by credit unions with assets less than $ million. Cost of Funds % CU Cost of Funds will Rise with Fed Funds Rate Cost of Funds vs Fed Funds Rate Cost of Funds Fed Funds Forecast COF Forecast Fed Funds Fed Funds Forecast CD and MMA Interest Rates Poised to Rise in...... Deposit Interest Rates versus Fed Funds Fed Funds Fed Funds Forecast CDs MMAs Regular Shares......... Fed Funds Forecast...............
CU Yield on Assets will Rise in as Interest Rates Rise and Loan Growth Remains Strong Yield on Assets vs -year Treasury Rate Yield on Assets YOA Forecast -Year Treasury Forecast -Year Treasury YieldonAssets % -Year Treasury Rate Forecast Rising Loan-to-Share Ratios Loan-to-Share Ratios................ Source: NCUA. Loan-to-Savings Q. Q............. < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $- $-$ >$ $ $ Strong Auto Sales and Above Trend Home Sales U.S. Vehicles Sales Millions of Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Units New Auto Sales Inherent Demand Auto Sales Forecast Source: Autodata Corp. U.S. vehicle sales fell to. million unit seasonally-adjusted annualized pace in May. Sales were up.% year over year. Low gasoline prices are driving light truck sales. Consumer fundamentals (strong job growth, rising incomes and rising wealth) remain favorable to drive auto sales into the future. The trend pace of auto sales inherent demand - that is consistent with the growth in the driving age population, income growth and household wealth is approximately. million units. Existing home sales fell % in May, falling to a. million annual rate, and fell.% from May. Home inventories remain tight (. million) leading to median home prices rising.% year over year. Thousands Existing Home Sales (annual rate) & Inventories,,,, Sales (Left Axis), Inventories (Right Axis), Healthy Housing Market,, Home Sales Foecast (Left Axis),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Thousands
Record Stock Prices and Rising Home Prices S&P Stock Index (monthly average),.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,..... Nominal S&P Index (Left Axis). Price-Earnings Ratio (Right Axis). Real S&P Index (Left Axis).. - - - - - - OFHEO House Price Index (-Qtr Change) U.S. Home Price Forecast Seasonally-Adjusted Purchase-Only Index - - - - - - Household balance sheets have improved over the last year due to rising stock & home prices. Stock prices were % higher in July than one year earlier, creating a positive wealth effect. The S&P Price-Earnings ratio reached. in June, slightly above the past -year average price-earnings ratio of. and significantly above the average since of.. This price-earnings ratio is the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE) which is based on the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous years. Home prices rose.% over the last year, due to rising home demand colliding with a lack of housing inventory for sale. Consumers Confidence Will Remain High in National Savings Rate [-month moving average (Personal Savings/DPI)] Consumer Confidence & Sentiment Index Confidence Sentiment Consumer Confidence Forecast The saving rate (savings / disposable personal income) fell below.% in April. Savings should remain low as higher consumer confidence leads consumers to spend rather than save. In this environment of modest savings, spending gains will be highly dependent on income growth and consumers preferences for additional savings. Consumer Confidence Index is at a year high due to tax cuts and expectations of expansionary fiscal policy. Consumer Sentiment Index is at a year high due to rising stock prices. Improving GDP growth will boost consumer confidence and also the demand for credit. The Dollar is Falling and Oil Prices are Rising U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Major Currency Index Nominal & Real ( = ) Nominal Real Oil Price per Barrel (West Texas Intermediate Crude) Nominal The U.S. dollar fell % over the last months. Market expectations are for the Fed to raise interest rates.% in which will increase the value of the dollar. The rise in the value of the dollar will reduce the cost of imports to U.S. residents but raise the cost of exports from the point of view of foreign buyers. This will worsen the trade deficit and slow economic growth. A country s exchange rate partly represents international investors confidence in its government policies. The price of a barrel of oil averaged $ in June, up from $ one year earlier, a % increase. This will accelerate energy investment but depress consumer spending. Oil Economics: P oil = $ => P Gas = $. => growth.% -.% over next two years. Real
Rapid Loan Growth Loan Growth (Annual Growth).................... Loan Growth Year Ending Q Year Ending Q.............. - -. < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Expect loan balances to grow % in and % in as the strengthening economy boosts members willingness and aity to accumulate debt and therefore satisfy some of their pent up demand that was accumulated during the weak and uncertain economic recovery of the last six years. But the loan growth disparity between small and large credit unions is rather large. Slower Saving Growth in Savings Growth (Annual Growth). Savings Growth Year Ending Q. Year Ending Q............................ < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $.. $- $... $-$ >$ Savings balances rose % in due to savings at the gas pump, rising household income, strong job growth, and fast membership growth. Savings lances are driven by the following factors: ) Wealth/Income => Savings, ) Interest Rates => Savings, ) Price Oil => Savings, ) Income Growth Expectations => Savings Incentives, ) Balance Sheet Repair => Savings, ) Retirement Catchup (underfunded HHs near retirement) => Savings, ) Risk/Uncertainty => Precautionary Savings, ) Demographic Changes (fewer households in working age group) => ggregate Savings, ) Income Inequality => Savings of High Income Households. Rising Yield-on-Assets Ratios.. Yield on Assets ( of Average Assets) Yield on Assets................. Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $- $-$ >$ $ $ Credit union loan growth of % in will shift assets away from low yielding investments and into higher yielding auto and mortgage loans. This will push credit union assets yields above the. set in. Faster economic growth in will put upward pressure on interest rates with the -year Treasury crossing over %. This will push mortgage rates up and boost earnings. The Fed will raise the fed funds interest rate one percentage point in raising the yields on short-term credit union investments. Aggressive loan pricing by banks returning to the consumer lending arena will, however, lower net returns on some loans
Rising Cost of Funds Cost of Funds ( of Average Assets) -. -. -.-.-.-.-. -. - -. -. -. -. -. -. -. - -. -. -. -. -. - -. -. -. - Cost of Funds Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Rising short-term interest rates in will increase credit union cost of funds from the record low mark of.% set in. Tight credit union liquidity will cause deposit interest rates to rise quickly as market interest rates increase. With almost all member certificate of deposits repriced to today s low interest rates, the funding cost increase will come sooner than it did during the last rising interest rate cycle of. Rising interest rates will encourage members to shift funds out of core deposits and into higher yielding money-market accounts, creating a liaity mix effect which will push up cost of funds ratios. Rising Net Interest Margins Net Interest Margin ( of Average Assets)......................... Net Interest Margin Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized.. < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Net interest margins will increase in as asset yields rise faster than cost of funds. Credit union net interest margins reached the lowest in history in due to historically low interest rates and excess liquidity. Deregulation over the last years has increased competition in the financial services arena, resulting in lower net interest margins. For an individual CU, margins will also be determined by local market demographics: population growth, median household income, local industry, age trends. Tight margin are forcing CUs to increase the array of financial products and services offered while at the same time boosting efficiency and productivity. Falling Operating Expense Ratios Operating Expenses ( of Average Assets) -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. Operating-Expense-to-Assets Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Operating expense ratios will decline slightly over the next years as the growth rate in assets exceed that of operating expenses. Corporate staization assessments are expected to be zero in because the combination of corporate capital written off ($. lion) and total assessments paid to date ($. lion) is close to what the losses are likely to be. NCUSIF premiums are expected to be zero in due to a build up of reserves for insurance losses and less CU failures. However, credit unions will experience rising compliance costs for new Dodd-Frank Act regulations and new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rules.
Falling Fee Income Ratios Fee Income ( of Average Assets)............................ Fee Income Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Fee income as a percent of average assets will continue its year decline as the economic recovery lowers penalty fees. Moreover, web and moe banking is providing members easier access to account balance information which reduces penalty fees. Fees from checking accounts serves as the single largest source of credit unions fee income. The average percentage of fee income derived from nonsufficient funds (NSF), overdraft, and courtesy pay fell to % recently. The CFPB s expected focus on checking/odp puts a big income stream at risk, and continuing issues with overdraft revenue could prove challenging. Stable Other Income Ratios Other Income ( of Average Assets).......................... Other Income Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized. < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ The end of the mortgage refinance boom will reduce loan origination fees and gains on sale of mortgages over the next years, therefore reducing other income. Interchange income may decline in if interchange rates fall more than the increase in card transactions. Merchants have incentives to move customers to new alternate low-cost payment systems, reducing the market power of the card networks. The interchange fee cap rule (October, ) capped the maximum fee charged per debit card transaction to cents (plus an additional - cents for fraud prevention) for institutions greater than $ lion. Rising Provisions for Loan Loss Ratios Provisions for Loan Losses ( of Average Assets) -. -. -.-. -. -. -. -.-. -. -. -. -. - -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. Provision for Loan Losses Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized -. -. < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Provision for loan loss ratios will increase slightly in due to strong loan growth. But stable loan net charge-offs ratios (.%), strong underwriting standards, an improving labor market, and rising home prices will keep loan loss provisions around the historical average of.%-.% of assets. Credit unions have staized their allowance for loan loss account at around.% of loans, down from.% in, but above the.% average reported before the Great.
Stable Return-on-Asset Ratios Net Income ( of Average Assets) Corporate Staization Expense (basis points of average assets) = bps = bps = bps = bps = bps Return on Assets Q YTD Annualized Q YTD Annualized < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Credit union return-on-asset ratio will rise to.% in. Rising asset yields due to faster loan growth and modestly higher market interest rates - will outpace higher funding costs. This will increase net interest margins. Credit unions should expect the share insurance fund dividend from the Corporate Staization Fund repayment in the second quarter of, boosting ROA by about basis points for the year (or basis points in the second quarter). The disparity between large and small credit unions return-on-asset ratios remained large in Q. Credit unions with assets exceeding $ lion reported ROA ratios of.%, more than twice that reported by credit unions with assets less than $ million. Membership Growth Surges........... Membership Growth (Annual Growth)............... - - - Membership Growth. Year Ending Q Year Ending Q..... < $ mil $-$ -. -. $-$ $- -. $ -. $- $.. $-$.. >$ Credit unions should expect membership growth to exceed.% in due to strong loan growth and job growth. This will push the total number of credit union memberships to. million by year end, which is equal to % of the total U.S. population. In the last months ending in Q, credit union with assets over $ lion reported.% membership growth, compared with less than % for credit unions with assets less than $ million. The, credit unions with assets less than $ million reported a.% decline in memberships. Rising Net Capital Ratios Net Capital-To-Asset Ratios...................... Net Capital-to-Assets Q Q........... < $ mil $-$ $-$ $- $ $- $ $-$ >$ Credit union net capital-to-asset ratios increased in to.% as capital accumulation outpaced asset growth. Credit unions will maintain their capital buffers at.% in, above the % target considered to be well capitalized under NCUA s Prompt Corrective Action rule. By the end of, capital ratios will be.%, below the record high set back in of.%. Net Capital (Equity) = Regular Reserves + Other Reserves + Undivided Earnings + Accumulated Gain/Loss on AFS Securities
Limerick of the Day s have always depended On a rate of borrowing that is splendid By consumers for whom Their means to consume May soon find them overextended. The Short-Term Debt Cycle and Forecasting s CU Growth Rate Gap Loan Growth Less Deposit Growth Growth Rate Gap Gap Forecast.% - - - - - - - - - - - - Economic Forecast We expect the U.S. economy to grow by.% in, up from our previous forecast of.%. However, we expect growth to fall to.%. First-quarter GDP grew.%, a typical modest expansion for the post-holiday winter months. Growth normally increases in the nd and rd quarters, and we expect economic activity to intensify given the recently passed tax cuts and strong labor market. However, higher growth will also spur greater inflation, which should lead the FOMC to increase interest rates at a faster pace. Along with an intensifying trade war and swelling national debt, we expect these growing headwinds to slow economic growth to.% in. Growth in is likely to be even lower, and some economists are already forecasting a minor recession. The unemployment rate fell to.% and will fall to.% by the end of. The fast-growing economy has spurred tremendous job growth and decreased the unemployment rate to its lowest level since. We expect the unemployment rate to bottom out around.%, before rising slightly in to.%. Headline CPI inflation reached.% in the first quarter of and will continue to grow at an annual pace of.% throughout the year. The growing economy and low unemployment will continue to put upward pressure on wages and consumer prices, increasing headline inflation in. As the FOMC continues to raise interest rates, CPI inflation will settle in at.% in. The Federal Funds interest rate will increase to a range of.% -.% in, up from the previous forecast of.% -.%. With most indicators of inflation now at.% or higher, very low unemployment, and strong economic growth, we now expect the FOMC to raise interest rates at a faster pace in, with four -basis-point hikes this year. The -year Treasury rate will increase to.% in. Healthy economic growth, low unemployment and inflationary pressures typically foreshadow rises in the -year Treasury rate, since the Treasury must offer competitive rates to keep up with inflation and lure investors. We expect this trend to continue, raising the -year Treasury rate to.% by the end of.
Economic Forecast June Actual Results Quarterly Results/Forecasts Annual Forecasts Yr Avg : : : : Growth rates: Economic Growth (% chg GDP)*.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Inflation (% chg CPI)*.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Unemployment Rate.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Federal Funds Rate (effective).%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% -Year Treasury Rate.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% -Year-Fed Funds Spread.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% * change, annual rate. All other numbers are end-of-period values. Forecast Memberships ended up.% for the year. We continue to expect slightly slower membership growth of.% in followed by.% growth in. Credit union memberships have grown at a torrid pace of.% annually over the past five years, five times the rate of population growth. This has been driven by strong economic growth and extremely low interest rates. As rates rise and pent-up demand for auto loans dwindles, we expect membership growth to level off to more sustainable rates. Credit union savings balances will grow.% in and.% in, down from our previous forecasts of.% and.%. Despite the increasing Federal Funds Rate, credit union deposit rates remain low and have only grown gradually in recent quarters. Furthermore, consumer confidence and retail sales remain high, leading to very low household savings. Therefore, credit union savings has not escalated as much as expected, and we accordingly readjusted our and forecasts downwards one percentage point each. Credit union loan balances increased.% in, and we expect a slight drop to.% loan growth in and.% in. Over the past five years, credit unions have experienced tremendous annual loan growth of.%. This is likely to taper off as interest rates rise and the economy slows. Higher rates make home-equity loans, mortgages and auto loans more expensive, so credit unions should expect lower demand for these products, which have driven much of the loan growth over the past five years. Credit quality will remain healthy in and, with only slight increases in delinquencies and charge-offs. The strong economy and low unemployment should keep loan portfolios relatively health through and. We expect year-end delinquency and charge-off rates of.% and.%, respectively. We expect strong credit union earnings of basis points in. This will fall to basis points in. As many credit unions began to book their share insurance fund dividends, first-quarter ROA jumped to basis points. However, we expect this to revert to an average ROA of about basis points for the rest of. In, ROA is likely to fall slightly to.% as the economy slows, interest rates rises, and the high loan-to-share ratio leads many credit unions to increase borrowing, lowering interest margins. Forecast June Actual Results Quarterly Results/Forecasts Annual Forecasts Yr Avg : : : : Growth rates: Savings growth.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Loan growth.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Asset growth.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Membership growth.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Liquidity: Loan-to-share ratio**.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Asset quality: Delinquency rate**.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Net charge-off rate*.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Earnings: Return on average assets (ROA)*.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Capital adequacy: Net worth ratio**.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% *Quarterly data, annualized. **End of period ratio. Additional information and updates available on our MCUE website.
PRESENTER STEVEN RICK Chief Economist CUNA Mutual Group Steve.rick@cunamutual.com --, Ext. -