Union Budget 2018-19 February 1, 2018 For Internal Circulation only
Synopsis Key Takeaways Continuing the vision of the government Focus on agriculture and healthcare Fiscal roadmap delayed again Specific proposals Customs duty raised in certain sectors, like food processing, electronics, auto components, footwear and furniture, in order to encourage domestic value addition and Make in India Corporate tax rate for MSME with revenue of upto Rs 250 crore reduced to 25% from 30% Fiscal Deficit target for 2018-19 is 3.3%; Fiscal consolidation roadmap revised once again The Revenue deficit for FY18 is pegged at 2.2% against 2% mandated by FRBM Act Macro assumptions for FY19BE Nominal GDP growth at 11.5% Subsidy kept unchanged as a % of GDP Net borrowings at Rs.4.6 Trillion, unchanged compared to FY18 Capital spending budgeted to grow by just 9.9% in FY19 Aggressive targets for indirect tax collections at ~+20% in FY19 Modest growth in total spending of 10.1% in FY19 2
Budget Profile Small Savings and State Provident Fund 0.92 General Services 1.02 (In lakh crore) Union Excise Duties 2.60 Others 1.25 GST 7.44 Taxes on Income 5.29 Market Loans 4.07 Customs 1.12 Gross Tax Revenue 22.71 Corporation Tax 6.21 Debt Receipts 6.24 Taxes on UTs 0.05 Non Debt Capital Receipts, 0.92 Net Tax Receipts 14.81 Interest Receipts 0.15 Capital Receipts 7.16 Dividend & Profit, 1.07 Non-Tax Revenue 2.45 Others 1.23 Budget Size 24.42 Scheme Expenditure (CS+CSS) 10.15 Transfers, Establishment and Other Expenditure 14.27 Others 0.28 Public Sector Undertakings 0.04 Regulatory/Statutory Bodies 0.07 Central Sector Schemes 7.09 Centrally Sponsored Schemes 3.06 Other Central Expenditure 6.78 Autonomous Bodies 0.61 Social services 0.45 Others 0.40 Establishment Expenditure 5.08 Economic Services 2.27 Core Schemes 2.28 Core of the Core Schemes 0.78 Pension 1.68 Salary & Allowances 2.07 Others 1.33 Others 0.31 Interest Payment 5.78 Subsidy 2.95 Transfer tostates 2.41 OtherGrants/ Loaans 1.32 Food 1.69 Fertilizer 0.70 Petroleum 0.25 Finance Commission Transfers 1.09 Transfer to NDR Fund 0.03 State Share of Taxes 7.88 Budget guided by mission to strengthen agriculture, rural development, health, education, employment, MSME and infrastructure sectors 3
Budget Highlights Government says a series of structural reforms will propel India among the fastest growing economies of the world. Country firmly on course to achieve over 8% growth as manufacturing, services and exports back on good growth path. Fiscal deficit pegged at 3.5%, projected at 3.3% for 2018-19 Disinvestment crossed target of Rs 72,500 crore to reach Rs 1,00,000 crore Taxes No change in income tax for individuals Standard deduction of Rs. 40,000 for salaried employees in lieu of transport and medical expenses. 2.5 crore salaried employees and pensioners to benefit. Corporate tax rate for companies generating up to Rs. 250 crore turnover reduced to 25% The existing 3% education cess will be replaced by a 4% health and education cess Tax on long-term capital gains exceeding Rs. 1 lakh at the rate of 10%, without allowing any indexation benefit. However, all gains up to 31st January, 2018 will be grandfathered. Short term capital tax remains at 15% A 10% tax on distributed income by equity oriented mutual funds has been proposed
Budget Highlights For Senior Citizens Senior citizens allowed Rs 50,000 deduction on health insurance premium paid in a year from the earlier Rs 30,000. Increase in deduction limit for medical expenditure for certain critical illness from Rs. 60,000 (in case of senior citizens) and from Rs. 80,000 (in case of very senior citizens) to Rs. 1 lakh for all senior citizens, under section 80DDB. Exemption of interest income on deposits with banks and post offices to be increased from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 50,000. TDS not required to be deducted under section 194A. Benefit also available for interest from all fixed deposit schemes and recurring deposit schemes. The government proposed to extend Pradhan Mantri VayaVandana Yojana up to March, 2020. Current investment limit proposed to be increased to Rs. 15 lakh from the existing limit of Rs. 7.5 lakh per senior citizen. Financial Sector The Government will expand the coverage under Prime Minister Jan DhanYojana by bringing all 60 crore basic accounts within its fold and undertake measures to provide services of micro insurance and unorganized sector pension schemes through these accounts. Government makes PAN mandatory for any entity entering into a financial transaction of Rs. 2.5 lakh or more. Comprehensive Gold Policy on the anvil to develop yellow metal as an asset class
Budget Highlights Agriculture MSP for all unannounced kharif crops will be one & a half times of their production cost like majority of rabi crops: Institutional Farm Credit raised to 11 lakh cr in 2018-19 from 8.5 lakh cr in 2014-15. 22,000 rural haats to be developed & upgraded into Gramin Agricultural Markets to protect the interests of 86% small and marginal farmers. An Agri-Market Infrastructure Fund with a corpus of Rs. 2,000 cr will be set up for developing and upgrading agricultural marketing infrastructure. Operation Greens launched to address price fluctuations in potato, tomato and onion for benefit of farmers and consumers. Two new funds of Rs. 10,000 cr announced for Fisheries and Animal Husbandary sectors; restructured National Bamboo Mission gets Rs.1,290 cr. Rs. 200 cr for supporting the cultivation of highly-specialized medicinal and aromatic plants, & supporting cottage industries that manufacture perfumes, essential oils, & associated products. Agricultural credit target increased from Rs. 10 lakh cr in 2017-18 to Rs. 11 lakh cr for 2018-2019. 100% deduction proposed to companies registered as Farmer Producer Companies with an annual turnover upto Rs. 100 cr on profit derived from such activities, for five years from 2018-19. Food processing sector allocation almost doubled from Rs. 715 cr in 2017-18 to Rs. 1400 cr in 2018-19
Budget Highlights Infrastructure Rs. 5.97 lakh crore allocated for infrastructure, proposed spending on rural infra is Rs. 14.34 lakh crore Smart Cities Mission aims at building 100 Smart Cities with state-of-the-art amenities. Projects worth Rs. 2350 crore have been completed and works of Rs. 20,852 crore are in progress. The AAI (Airports Authority of India) has proposed to expand airport capacity to 1 billion trips a year. Defence The government will develop two defence industrial production corridors and bring out an industryfriendly Defence Production Policy 2018 to promote domestic production by public sector, private sector and MSMEs. Railways Rs. 1.48 lakh crore for railways, capacity expansion is priority 4,000km of new railway track will be laid down by 2019, all railways stations with footfall of more than 25,000 to have escalators. The government will undertake redevelopment of 600 major railway stations across the country Allocated Rs. 11,000 crore for expansion of Mumbai s suburban train network and Rs. 17,000 crore for the Bengaluru rail network. Also planned to allocate an additional Rs. 40,000 crore for Mumbai s rail network.
Budget Highlights Digital India 5 lakh WiFi hotspots to provide broadband access to 5 crore rural people All crypto currencies, which include bitcoins, are considered illegal, and the government will take all measures to eliminate their use. NITI Aayog to initiate a national programme on Artificial Intelligence(AI) Centres of excellence to be set up on robotics, AI, Internet of things, etc. Education The government launches a major initiative named Revitalising Infrastructure and Systems in Education (RISE) by 2022 with a total investment of Rs. 1 lakh crore in the next 4 years. Ekalavya Model Residential Schools to be started by 2022 for blocks with more than 50% scheduled tribe population and at least 20,000 tribal persons. Launch of National Apprenticeship Scheme with stipend support and sharing of the cost of basic training by the government to give training to 50 lakh youth by 2020. Housing and Real Estate 51 lakh affordable homes will be made. The government to reduce hardships faced in realty deals No adjustment to be made in a case where circle rate value does not exceed 5% of sale consideration
Budget Highlights Health The World s largest Health Protection Scheme covering over 10 crore poor and vulnerable families launched with a family limit upto Rs. 5 lakh rupees for secondary and tertiary treatment. Under the Aayushman Bharat programme, 1.5 lakh centres will be set up to provide health facilities closer home. Earmarked Rs. 600 crore to provide nutritional support to all TB patients 1 medical college for every three parliamentary constituencies and at least 1 government medical college in each state of the country For Women Contributions from women employees will be brought down from 12 % to 8 % to enable them to get a higher take-home pay Women below the poverty line to get 8 crore free gas connections under Prime Minister s Ujjwala Scheme Loans to women self help groups will increase to Rs.75,000crore in 2019 from 42,500 crore last year. The government gives Rs. 9,975 crore for social security and protection programme for all widows and orphaned children for the next fiscal year
Budget Highlights Social sector Government plans to construct 2 crore toilets in next financial year under the Swachh Bharat Mission 4 crore poor households will be provided with electricity connections under the Prime Minister SaubhagyaYojana A social welfare surcharge at the rate of 10% is imposed in place of the Education Cess and Secondary and Higher Education Cess on imported goods. The government announces Amrut Programme to provide water supply to all households in 500 cities. Water supply contracts for 494 projects worth Rs. 19,428 crore will be awarded Higher targets for Ujjwala, Saubhagya and Swachh Mission to cater to lower and middle class in providing free LPG connections, electricity and toilets. Outlay on health, education and social protection will be Rs. 1.38 lakh crore. Welfare fund for scheduled castes gets a boost. Miscellaneous Customs duty on mobile phones has been increased from 15% to 20% in a bid to promote 'Make in India' and create jobs in the country. 10 prominent sites to be developed as iconic tourist destinations
An Overview Union Budget FY 2019 For Internal Circulation only
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18RE FY19BE FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18RE FY19BE Fiscal Consolidation Roadmap delayed further Fiscal Consolidation Path Falling Subsidy Burden 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 6.0 Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP 6.5 5.9 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.3 (INR bn) Subsidies Subsidies (RHS) (% of GDP) 3,500 3.0 3,000 2.6 2.5 2,949 2.2 2.2 2.3 2,571 2,583 2,641 2,660 2.5 2,500 2,179 2,546 2,348 2.0 2.1 2,000 1,734 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1,500 1,414 2.0 1,000 1.0 1.0 500 0.5 0.0 0 0.0 Fiscal Deficit target for 2018-19 is 3.3%; higher than the self-imposed target of 3% Subsidy burden kept unchanged at 1.6% of GDP in FY19 Source: CSO, MOSPI, CGA & MoF 12
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18RE FY19BE FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18RE FY19BE Nominal GDP growth and it s impact 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (% YoY) 16.1 15.1 12.9 Nominal GDP 20.2 13.8 13.0 11.9 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.2 9.9 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (% YoY) 11.6 24.6 10.5 2.5 3.9 Gross tax receipts % YoY (LHS) % of GDP (RHS) 27.8 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 16.9 17.9 16.8 16.7 9.5 13.4 12.4 9.9 9.9 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 Tax-to-GDP expected to continue to improve Tax to GDP ratio is improved over last few years but it is still lower as compared to most EMs Source: CSO, MOSPI, CGA & MoF 13
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18RE FY19BE Trend of Capital Expenditure (INR bn) Capital Expenditure Capital expenditure (RHS)(%) (% of GDP) 3,500 2.5 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1.7 1,127 2.0 1.8 1,566 1,586 1.7 1.7 1,669 1,877 1.6 1,967 1.8 2,530 3,004 2,846 2,734 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 1,000 500 0.5 0 0.0 Govt. capex to increase by ~10% in FY19 Source: CSO, MOSPI, CGA & MoF 14
Sector level actions Sector Consumer Healthcare Auto Outlook No change in the duty or imposition of any additional tax for Cigarette is positive for Cigarette companies (although GST rates can change in GST council) Custom duty increase on safflower, palm oil is negative for few FMCG companies using these commodities as inputs Custom duty increase on watches and sunglasses increases competitiveness of domestic manufacturers Launch of the much awaited National Healthcare protection scheme, with about 10 Cr families covered for up to Rs 5 lakh per family per year for secondary and tertiary care. This will improve the spending power of the people. The overall growth in the healthcare spend can double Customs duty on TBR tyres increased from 10 to 15%, This would help domestic players
Sector level actions Sector Capital Goods Real Estate Oil & Gas Agriculture Outlook Higher infra spends Budgeted railway capex for FY19 at Rs1.47tn is up 12% over FY18RE. Defence capex for FY19 at Rs0.94tn is up 9% YoY; moreover R&D spends budget up 29% to Rs97bn Continued push for affordable housing To achieve the vision of Housing for all by 2022, 5mn houses to be built in 2018-19 in rural area under Prime Minister Awas Scheme Establish a dedicated Affordable Housing Fund (AHF) in National Housing Bank Addresses anomaly under Sec. 43 CA to tax real estate transactions Despite the higher oil prices, the FY19 petroleum subsidy provisioning has been kept flat at Rs. 248 bn The fertilizer subsidy for FY19 has been kept at Rs.700Bn vs. Rs 650 bn FY18RE numbers. This could imply lower subsidy liquidation before nation-wide DBT roll-out unless amendments are made
Sector level actions Sector Infrastructure Insurance/MF Banks/NBFC Outlook Overall infrastructure spends expected at Rs.5971Bn (up 21% YoY) with Roads Highways spends increasing by 10%. Targeted spend under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana of Rs.525Bn against Rs.290Bn for FY18. Relying on off-budgetary resources at Rs 250bln, from zero in FY18 Introduction of govt. sponsored health insurance programme for lower-income households, no clarity on amount allocated for the scheme LTCG on mutual funds Increase in tax from 0% to 10% Life Insurance No change in tax rates, ULIPs will continue to be exempt from LTCG subject to minimum sum assured Deviation from fiscal consolidation path and govt borrowing plans put pressure on yields Higher MSP for Kharif crops reduces pressure on rural asset quality Lower tax incidence on interest income for senior citizens Exemption on interest income on banks deposits raised from 10000 to 50000, positive for deposit growth Carry forward of loss for acquired company in insolvency cases Benefits of carry forward of accumulated loss extended to acquirer in IBC cases
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