Weekly Summary: This week s U.S. Energy Information Administration s natural gas storage reported natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 211 billion cubic feet, more than expected reduction of 204-208 Bcf. The US EIA reported a 112 Bcf withdrawal for the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is a 170 Bcf. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3,086 Bcf, 20.7% higher than last year and 16.3% higher than the five-year average for this time of year. In a landmark decision concerning regulation of the wholesale energy market, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld FERC s jurisdiction over demand response (DR), reversing the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in a 6-2 ruling yesterday. The ruling is expected to have a neutral to bearish impact on current energy and capacity prices. If the SCOTUS had agreed to vacate FERC 745, capacity prices likely would have moved higher toward the price cap as thousands of megawatts would have been procured to replace DR participants. In this sense, the rule accomplished the objective of supporting market and system stability. Costs for ancillary services will likely increase in order to accommodate payment of full LMP to participating DR providers. ISO-NE CEO Gordon van Welie suggested as much as a fifth of New England s generation mix may come from renewable resources such as wind and solar within 10 to 15 years., the fundamental challenges facing New England s grid stem from pipeline capacity constraints, which are very weather dependent. This December was the mildest since 1960, putting the average monthly wholesale power price at its second-lowest level since 2003. On average constraints arise 30-50 days/year from prolonged cold temperatures. Even without extreme cold, last week gas prices in NE were around $3/MMBtu higher than elsewhere in the country where there is easier access to gas. The ISO has little to no power to address shortfalls in gas infrastructure but is ensuring competition to drive investment in new generations, demand-response and energy-efficiency capacity to aid the power grid. NYMEX - Annual s $4.80 Henry Hub 2017 Annual Henry Hub 2018 Annual Henry Hub 2019 Annual $4.40 $4.00 $3.60 $3.20 $2.80 $2.40 Natural Gas: NYMEX Natural Gas: Storage Inventories NYMEX Natural Gas Summary Close () % Change from Last Week EIA Natural Gas Storage Summary This week Same week - Last year 5 Year Average for this week Prompt Month: Feb 2016 $2.19 3.352% Total (Bcf) 3,086 2,556 2,654 Front Month: Mar 2016 $2.18 2.010% Calendar 2016 Calendar 2017 $2.72-0.747% Current levels vs Previous years (Bcf) % Difference - Current vs Previous years $2.87-0.009% Injection/ Withdrawal -211 530 432 20.74% 16.28% 1
New England Annual Forward s - Basis Algon Gates 2017 Annual Algon Gates 2018 Annual $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 Algon Gates, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.951 $0.878 8.30% $1.077-11.69% $1.446-34.22% $1.438-33.84% 2017 $0.831 $0.767 8.26% $0.990-16.07% $1.231-32.53% $1.145-27.46% $60 $55.H.Internal_Hub $50 $45 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 ISO-NE.H.Internal_Hub Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $38.049 $37.264 2.107% $44.277-14.07% $48.699-21.87% $49.526-23.17% 2
New York Annual Forward s - Basis Transco Z 6 NY 2017 Annual Transco Z 6 NY 2018 Annual $1.40 $1.10 $0.80 $0.50 $0.20 Transco Zone 6 Non-NY, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.765 $0.806-5.08% $0.914-16.30% $0.712 7.40% $0.497 54.06% 2017 $0.900 $0.898 0.20% $1.031-12.72% $0.861 4.51% $0.629 42.96% $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 N.Y.C - J NYISO - N.Y.C. - J Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $36.486.856 1.76% $41.027-11.07% $45.067-19.04% $47.906-23.84% 3
Mid-Atlantic Annual Forward s - Basis Tetco M3 2017 Annual Tetco M3 2018 Annual $0.30 - -$0.30 -$0.50 Tetco M3, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 -$0.194 -$0.214 9.66% -7-80.43% -$0.163-18.92% -$0.367 47.20% 2017 -$0.125 -$0.142 11.72% -$0.059-111.86% -$0.002-6844.44% -$0.191 34.52% $49 BGE $46 $43 PJM BGE, Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $42.693 $42.706-0.032% $44.195-3.398% $45.390-5.943% $43.094-0.930% 4
Southern California Annual Forward s - Basis SoCal Border 2017 Annual SoCal Border 2018 Annual $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.00 - SoCal Border, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 8 $0.120-10.08% $0.075 44.83% $0.004 2739.47% $0.136-20.66% 2017 $0.142 $0.159-10.41% $0.119 19.13% $0.116 22.41% $0.254-43.98% SP15 $30 $25 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 CAISO SP15, Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $28.076 $28.870-2.751% $29.840-5.914% $32.593-13.861% $36.212-22.469% 5
Texas Annual Forward s - Basis Houston Ship Channel 2017 Annual Houston Ship Channel 2018 Annual $0.18 $0.13 $0.08 $0.03 -$0.02 -$0.07 Houston Ship Channel 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 -$0.018 -$0.014-32.85% -$0.003-468.75% $0.045-140.27% $0.056-132.50% 2017 $0.026 $0.031-14.05% $0.049-46.33% $0.123-78.55% $0.093-71.69% Houston Zone $37 $33 $31 $29 $27 $25 ERCOT Houston Zone 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $24.491 $25.230-2.929% $28.164-13.040% $32.486-24.610% $33.994-27.954% 6
Pacific Northwest Annual Forward s - Basis NW Sumas 2017 Annual NW Sumas 2018 Annual -$0.05 -$0.20 -$0.35 -$0.50 -$0.65 NW Sumas, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 -$0.380 -$0.379-0.37% -$0.421 9.58% -$0.533 28.63% -$0.307-23.72% 2017 -$0.353 -$0.350-0.94% -$0.382 7.49% -$0.347-1.70% -$0.137-157.70% Florida Basis - Annual Forward s Movement FGT Z 3 2017 Annual FGT Z 3 2018 Annual $0.15 $0.05 $0.00 FGT Z 3, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.056 $0.060-6.82% $0.060-6.98% $0.070-20.23% $0.093-39.46% 2017 $0.061 $0.072-15.47% $0.065-5.26% $0.079-22.14% 4-41.15% 7