Thailand Company Update 29 2557 : ( ). () CGR Scoring Rating ( ): 5.20 ( ): 8.10 ( ) http:// ww.maybank-ke.co.th (02) 658-6300 ( 28 2557) Description : ก 300 MVA 230 kv กก ก Ticker : ก () 308 ( ) 1,601 (US$ m) 48.97 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover ( ) 0.97 SET INDEX 1,402.79 Free float (%) 66.38 Major Shareholders : % 12.70 CIMB SECURITIES (SINGAPORE) PTE.LTD. 8.31 Key Indicators ROE annualised (%) 14.4 Net cash (THB m): -1,186 NTA/shr (THB): 4.7 Interest cover (x): 5.1 ก ก : ก 7% ก 3.2 กก ก 2H57 กก ก ก 2H57 ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก 8.10 / PER 12.8x 3.2 : ก ก ก 1Q57 1Q57 420 13% 2557 3,210 ก ก ก 2H57 70% ก 27% YoY ก ก กก กก LDS ( Tank & Steel) 3Q57 2 : LDS ก ก ก ก ( ) 480 ก 2H57 300 1Q58 กก กก ก ก ก 2Q57 ก 3Q57 4Q57 2 7.9 ( ก 4.5 ) 20-25% ก : ก ก ก ก ก ก ก made-to-order ก ก ก outlook ก ก ก ก 2 ก ก ก 8.10 PER 12.8x : ก กก ก ( 46% ) ก ก Historical Chart 5-5 -15-25 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 SET Performance 52-week High/Low THB 6.80/THB 4.78 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yrs YTD Absolute (%) -8.0 0.0 2.0-21.2 4.4 Relative (%) -7.4-7.0-1.2-9.0-3.3 Summary Earnings Table FYE: Dec 31 (THB m) 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Revenue 1,855 1,921 2,518 3,045 3,533 EBITDA 287 96 315 366 478 Recurring Net Profit 207 22 189 210 295 Net profit 199 30 178 210 295 EPS (Bt) 0.73 0.11 0.58 0.63 0.82 EPS growth (%) 23.7 (84.9) 427.3 8.8 30.4 DPS (Bt) 0.40 0.11 0.30 0.32 0.41 PER 7.1 47.3 9.0 8.2 6.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 22.5 6.1 8.1 6.3 Div Yield (%) 7.7 2.1 5.8 6.1 7.9 P/BV(x) 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 Net Gearing (%) 24.8 67.1 26.9 85.6 65.8 ROE (%) 18.7 2.9 15.0 14.4 16.7 ROA (%) 10.3 1.2 6.9 5.7 7.3 Cons. Net Profit (THB m) - - 178 176 247 Source: Company reports and MBKET. SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Figure 1 : Fluctuation of Power transformer business Figure 2 : Hongsa Power Plant LDS Bt mn 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) Revenue Norm profit GP % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 GPM % 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3Q12 2Q12 1Q12 4Q11 3Q11 2Q11 1Q11 Source: company report & MBKET Figure 3 : Power Development Plan of Thailand Source: company report Figure 4 : P-Transformer expansion Completed Source: company report & MBKET Source: company report 29 2557 2 ก 8
INCOME STATEMENT (THB mn) BALANCE SHEET (THB mn) FY December 2012 2013 2014F 2015F FY December 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Revenue 1,921 2,518 3,045 3,533 Fixed Assets 435 442 879 851 EBITDA 96 315 366 478 Other LT Assets 381 195 362 364 Depreciation & Amortisation 48 52 76 78 Cash/ST Investments 284 562 324 348 Operating Profit (EBIT) 48 263 290 400 Other Current Assets 1,428 1,378 2,145 2,481 Interest (Exp)/Inc (39) (46) (57) (62) Total Assets 2,528 2,576 3,709 4,045 Associates - - - - One-offs - - - - ST Debt 354 268 954 1,454 Pre-Tax Profit 36 234 263 369 Other Current Liabilities 457 458 1,187 712 Tax (14) (46) (53) (74) LT Debt 617 601 55 55 Minority Interest - 0 - - Other LT Liabilities 56 65 56 56 Net Profit 30 178 210 295 Minority Interest 1 1 1 1 Recurring Net Profit 22 189 210 295 Shareholders' Equity 1,043 1,183 1,455 1,765 Total Liabilities-Capital 2,528 2,576 3,709 4,045 Revenue Growth % 3.6 31.1 20.9 16.0 EBITDA Growth (%) (66.6) 228.2 16.3 30.6 Share Capital (m) 280 308 334 359 EBIT Growth (%) (80.6) 448.6 10.5 37.7 Gross Debt/(Cash) 984 1,269 1,510 1,510 Net Profit Growth (%) (84.8) 487.4 18.5 40.4 Net Debt/(Cash) 700 707 1,186 1,162 Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) (89.4) 765.1 11.3 40.4 Working Capital 901 1,214 327 662 Tax Rate % 38.7 19.5 20.0 20.0 BVPS 3.73 3.85 4.37 4.92 CASH FLOW (Btmn) RATES & RATIOS FY December 2012 2013 2014F 2015F FY December 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Profit before taxation 36 234 263 369 Gross Margin % 19.5 26.1 23.0 23.3 Depreciation 48 52 76 78 EBITDA Margin % 5.0 12.5 12.0 13.5 Net interest receipts/(payments) (39) (46) (57) (62) Op. Profit Margin % 2.5 10.4 9.5 11.3 Working capital change (178) (5) (227) (251) Net Profit Margin % 1.6 7.1 6.9 8.4 Cash tax paid (14) (46) (53) (74) ROE % 2.9 15.0 14.5 16.7 Others (incl'd exceptional items) 90 130 57 61 ROA % 1.2 6.9 5.7 7.3 Cash flow from operations (58) 319 59 122 Net Margin Ex. El % 1.1 7.5 6.9 8.4 Capex (202) (45) (400) (50) Dividend Cover (x) 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 Disposal/(purchase) 1 2 4 5 Interest Cover (x) 1.2 5.8 5.1 6.5 Others 31 189 (7) (8) Asset Turnover (x) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 Cash flow from investing (171) 146 (403) (53) Asset/Debt (x) 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 Debt raised/(repaid) 360 (107) 300 (59) Debtors Turn (days) 89.9 89.0 89.0 89.0 Equity raised/(repaid) - - 141 141 Creditors Turn (days) 82.7 83.0 83.0 83.0 Dividends (paid) (70) (37) (99) (126) Inventory Turn (days) 220.1 214.7 214.7 214.7 Interest payments (39) (46) (57) (62) Net Gearing % 67.1 59.7 81.5 65.8 Others (3) 2 57 62 Debt/ EBITDA (x) 15.5 4.4 6.2 4.8 Cash flow from financing 248 (187) 342 (44) Debt/ Market Cap (x) 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 Change in cash 19 278 (2) 25 Source: Company reports and MBKET 29 2557 3 ก 8
APPENDIX I:TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก กกก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก กก Maybank Investment Bank Berhad ) ก Maybank Kim Eng ) ก Maybank Kim Eng Maybank Kim Eng,ก ก, ก / ก ) ก Representatives ) ก ก กก, ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng ก ก ก กก Maybank Kim Eng,ก ก ก กก ก ก กก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng ก ก ก ก ก ก, / ก Maybank Kim Eng กก ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng ก Maybank Kim Eng ก กก ก 3 ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กกก ก ก ก ก Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng Research ก ( Maybank KERPL ) ก ก ก Maybank KERPL ก กก ก ก, ก ก ( ก Section 4A ก Singapore Securities and Futures) Maybank KERPL ก ก ก กก ก กก ก (IOD) ก ก ก ก ก (Corporate Governance) ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก IOD กก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ( ) ก ( ) ก ก ก 29 2557 4 ก 8
ก MKE ( US ) ก ( Rule 15a-6 ก Securities Exchange Act of 1934) Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc ( Maybank KESUSA ) Broker-Dealer ( ก Section 15 Securities Exchange Act of 1934) ก Maybank KESUSA ก MKE ก ก ก ก Maybank KESUSA ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) ก ( Maybank KESL ) ก ก ก The Financial Services Authority Informational Purposes ก ก ก ก ก (Retail Client) The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ก ก ก 3 ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก กก กก ก ก ก ก, ก DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures : ก Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) ก ก Bursa Malaysia Berhad Capital Market and Services ก The Securities Commission : ก Maybank KERPL ( 197201256N) ก ก ก Monetary Authority of Singapore : PT Kim Eng Securities ( PTKES ) ( KEP-251/PM/1992) ก Indonesia Stock Exchange ก ก ก BAPEPAM LK : MBKET ( 0107545000314) ก The Stock Exchange of Thailand ก ก ก ก ก ก. : MATRKES ( 01-2004-00019) ก The Philippines Stock Exchange ก ก ก The Securities and Exchange Commission : Kim Eng Vietnam Securities ก ( KEVS ) ( 71/UBCK-GP) The State Securities Commission of Vietnam ก : KESHK (Central Entity No: AAD284) ก ก The Securities and Futures Commission : Kim Eng Securities India Private ก ( KESI ) The National Stock Exchange of India Limited ( : INF/INB 231 452435) Bombay Stock Exchange ( INF/INB 011452431) ก ก ก Securities and Exchange Board of India KESI ก SEBI 1 Merchant Broker ( INM 000011708) : Maybank KESUSA ก ก ก ก FINRA Broker ID 27861 ก : Maybank KESL ( 2377538) ก ก ก ก The Financial Services Authority Disclosure of Interest : MKE ก กก ก ก กก market maker ก ก กก ก ก ก, ก ก กก ก : 29 2557, Maybank KERPL ก ก ก ก ก ก : MBKET ก กก ก Derivatives Warrants ก ก ก ก MBKET ก ก ก / ก ก / ก ก กก ก ก : KESHK ก กก ก ก Paragraph 16.5 (a) Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licenses ก ก ก The Securities and Futures Commission 29 2557 5 ก 8
29 2557, KESHK ก ก ก ก 3 MKE ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก 12 ก ก ก ก กก ก OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก Structure Securities ก ก ก ก ( ก Spot / ก ), Time to Maturity, / ก ก ก ก ก ก กกก ก ก,, ก ก ก ก MKE Definition of Ratings (For MayBank Kim Eng Thailand) Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system: BUY TRADING BUY/TAKE PROFIT SELL Applicability of Ratings Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends). Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders Funds EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax 29 2557 6 ก 8
ก กก ก (IOD) ก ก ก ก ก (Corporate Governance) ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก IOD กก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ( ) ก ( ) ก ก ก 29 2557 7 ก 8
ก ก ก 20-21, 24 999/9 1 ก 10330 0-2658-6300 0-2658-6301 ก 159 25 21 ก ก 10110 0-2665-7000 0-2665-7050 56 5 ก ก 10500 0-2632-8341 0-2632-8395 55 G 1005 ก 10260 0-2320-3600 0-2320-3610 125 3 ก 10200 0-2225-0242 0-2225-0523 1145 5 ก 3 ก 10270 0-2758-7003 0-2758-7248 30/39-50 ก 14 11000 0-2550-0577 0-2550-0566 1693 กก 11 ก ก 10900 0-2541-1411 0-2541-1108 622 14 ก 10110 0-2664-9800 0-2664-9811 215 ก 5 ก 10100 0-2622-9412 0-2622-9383 94.2 ก 091-92 G F.... 12130 1. 0-2958-0592. 0-2958-0420 2.02-958-0992 02-958-0590 400 52 20 ก ก 10500 0-2231-2700 0-2231-2130 99 ก 12 ก- ก 10600 0-2876-6500 0-2876-6531 ก 7/129 ก 3 302 ก ก ก 10700 0-2884-9847 0-2884-6920 275 1 8 ก ก 10160 0-2804-4235 0-2804-4251 10 /92 2 7 ก ก 10500.0-2636-7550-5.0-2636-7565 ก 3105 3 ก ก 10240.0-2378-1144. 0-2378-1323 553 14 กก ก 10400 0-2250-6192 0-2250-6199 587, 589 ก B001 A ก 10230.0-2947-5800-5.0-2519-5040 496-502 8 6 ก 10330.0-2256-9373.0-2256-9374 62 4 ก ก 10500 0-2231-2700 0-2231-2418 5 ก ก 10400 0-2641-0977 0-2641-0966 999 / 3 ก 3 9 ก 10250.02-716-7816 02-716-7815 323 17 ก ก 10500 0-2680-4340 0-2680-4355 ก 50 1 ก ก ก ก 50 ก ก 10900 0-2579-9880 0-2579-9840 ก 154 3 C ) 55 ( ก 10110 0-2714- 9222 0-2726- 3901 ก 110/1-4 10 1 110/1-4 ก ก 10210 0-2831-4600 0-2580- 3643 All Seasons Place Retail Center 3 311 87/2 ก 10330. 0-2654-0084.0-2654-0094 99/9 2 14 1401 ก ก 11120 02-835- 3283 02-835- 3280 ก 4 ก 10400. 0-2251-4099.0-2251-4098 735/5 E 2 ( ) ก 10260. 0-2108-6300, 0-2108-6301 15 1501 4,4/5 ก 10330 0-2658-6300 1 244 ก 2-3 50100 (053) 284-000 (053) 284-019 2 201/3 50100 (053) 284-138-47 (053) 202-695 1242/2 ก 3 7 30000. (044) 288-455 ).044) 288-466 55/60 1 ก 20000 (038) 053-950 (038) 053-966 319 ก 3 - ก 52100 (054) 817-811 (054) 816-811 137/5-6 32000 (044) 531-600-3 (044) 519-378 G3 G 311 7 34000 (045) 265-633 (045) 265-639 322/91 ก 74000 (034) 837-190 (034) 837-610 180/1-2 2 21000 (038) 862-022-9 (038) 862-043 2 ก TSK PARK 1 351-351/1 21000 (038) 807-459 (038) 807-841 351/8 22000 (039) 332-111 (039) 332-444 ก 1, 1/1 ก 83000 (076) 355-730 (076) 355-730 119 74/27-28. ก 4 2. ก.. 75000 (034) 724-062-4 (034)-724-068 1,3,5 3 90110 (074) 346-400-5 (074) 239-509 216/3 4 ก 84000 (077) 205-460 (077) 205-475 ก 2 559 1 ก (037) 226-347-8 (037) 226-346 18 95000 (073) 255-494-6 (073) 255-498 16/11 ก 77110 (032) 531-193 (032) 531-221 ก 163/1-2 ก 1 ก 40000. (043) 225-355 ).043) 225-356 1/15-16 ก 60000 (056) 314-150 (056) 314-151 : ก ก. ก ก ก ( ) ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก ก กก ก ก ก. ก ก ก ( ) ก ก ก 29 2557 8 ก 8