Asda Income Tracker Report: July 2016 Released: August 2016 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850 w www.cebr.com
Contents Asda Income Tracker Introduction 03 Headlines 04 Constructing the Income Tracker 05 Dashboard 06 Income Tracker trends 07 Cost of living 09 Labour market 11 Income Analysis 12 Contact 15 Data charts & tables 16 Method notes 20 Disclaimer 22 2
Introduction Asda Income Tracker Our Income Tracker has made for some interesting reading this month. On one hand, it s encouraging to see that spending power has on average increased by 5.4% since last year, while on the other hand the data demonstrates the significant gap between households when it comes to discretionary income. Falling food and drink prices (-2.6%) provided a welcome relief to families wallets across the board, and with wage growth remaining above inflation levels for the time being, households are likely to make the most of this again next month. Asda spokesperson 3
Headlines Asda Income Tracker Headlines The average UK household had 202 a week of discretionary income in July 2016, up by 10 a week on the same month a year before. This month s income tracker followed the downward trend seen for almost a year. Once again, households across the UK saw a slowdown in spending power in July. Still, the weekly increase remained robust, holding just into double figures. Inflation remains the most notable threat to households over the coming months. Following the falls in the value of the pound, the Bank of England revised up its short-term inflation forecasts in August suggesting that price rises could be around the corner for households. Household spending growth hung in double digits in July, which. alongside brighter weather, helped to support a strong month of retail spending. Despite falls in confidence, the continued improvements in household finances has helped families shrug off much of the post-brexit concern that has plagued businesses and financial markets. However, the outlook may not be so bright as rising inflation through into 2017 could place significant pressure on household budgets. Family spending power was up by 10 a week year on year in June (a 5.4% annual increase) Sam Alderson, Economist, Cebr 4
Constructing the Asda Income Tracker Model Total household income 752 per week - e.g. national insurance contributions, income tax Taxes = Net income 633 per week e.g. wages, investment income, pensions, social security, self employment earnings 119 per week i.e. take home pay Net income 633 per week - e.g. food, clothing, housing costs, bills, transport, communication costs, health, children s schooling, house maintenance and repair Cost of living = Average family spending power 202 per week i.e. take home pay 431 per week e.g. holidays, cinema, theatre, eating out, toys, sports, savings, jewellery, national lottery and other gambling payments, computer software and games 5
Asda Income Tracker Dashboard: July Dashboard Indicator Regular earnings growth (May) Employment growth (May) Unemployment rate (May) Net income Mortgage costs Food & non-alcoholic drinks Vehicle fuels Home electricity, gas & fuel Essential item inflation Family spending power Annual percentage change +2.3% (excl. bonuses) +1.9% (+606,000 employment on year) 4.9% (-0.7% points on year) +2.1% -1.7% -2.6% -4.3% -3.3% 0.1% +5.4% Recent trend KEY IMPROVING TREND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TREND DETERIORATING TREND * three-month average, to month stated **unemployment rate for three months to month stated 6
Growth in spending power dips to lowest level since October 2014 The Asda Income Tracker was 10 a week higher in July 2016 than a year before Average household discretionary incomes excluding bonuses were 5.4% higher in July 2016 compared with the same period in 2015. This represents a further slowing in growth, which now stands at its lowest level since October 2014. However, in pound terms, annual growth remains in double digits, the 21 st consecutive month of increases over the 10 a week level. July continued the trends across the Income Tracker seen in recent months. Whilst the latest labour market data showed that unemployment across the UK remains at the lowest level in over a decade, inflation continued to edge up in July. At the same time, wage growth, whilst remaining well above the rate of inflation, doesn t appear to have received a major boost from the National Living Wage. 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 - 10-15 Year-on-year change in Asda income tracker, Income Tracker Trends Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 7
Spending power growth falls as essential item inflation turns positive Income Tracker Trends The Asda Income Tracker was 10 a week higher in July 2016 than a year before Contributions to annual change in the Income Tracker (excluding bonuses), July 2016 The average UK household had 202 a week of discretionary income in July 2016, up from 192 at the same point a year ago. Net income growth slowed marginally in the latest month as data continue to suggest that the National Living Wage hasn t supported any further increases in wage growth in recent months. The main pressure on household incomes in July came from a rise in essential item inflation, which rose into positive territory for the first time since March. Given that both regular and total pay growth stand at similar levels, annual growth including bonuses is only marginally below the headline rate at 5.1%. Net Income Essential spending Income Tracker - 4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 8
Headline inflation hits highest level since November 2014 Cost of living Essential item inflation returns to positive territory at 0.1% Annual consumer price inflation rose to 0.6% in July, up slightly from the 0.5% recorded in June and the highest level since November 2014. 6% 5% Annual inflation on the consumer price index (CPI), and essential item annual inflation Still, inflation remains some way off of the Bank of England s central 2% target and essential item inflation, whilst now in positive territory, still stands at the near-zero level of 0.1% in July. 4% 3% 2% However, with sterling having fallen sharply against a range of key trading currencies following the outcome of the UK s referendum on EU membership, higher import prices are likely to place upward pressure on inflation as we move into 2017. In fact, the Bank s latest Quarterly Inflation Report forecasts that CPI inflation will hit 2% in the first half of 2017, notably earlier than forecast before the referendum. 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 CPI Essential item 9
Rising price of hotel stays and vehicle fuels puts pressure on summer getaways The main factors affecting family costs in July were: Transport costs once again provided one of the main sources of upward pressure. Within the category, motor fuels provided the largest inflationary pressure rising between June and July. 4% 2% 0% Inflation of selected goods, annual change to July 2016 Cost of living Alcoholic beverages also provided inflationary pressure, with prices rising 0.5% between June and July compared with a fall of 2.5% at the same point a year ago. Prices in restaurants and hotels rose by 0.4% between June and July and now stand 2.7% higher than a year ago. Overnight hotel stays provided the main upward contribution within this category. -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Whilst overall inflation rose, there were downward contributions from the prices of games and toys within the recreation and culture category and housing rentals, specifically social landlord rents. 10
Rate of unemployment holds steady at under 5% Labour Market Wage growth slips despite boost from the National Living Wage After falling in the previous reading, the rate of unemployment across the UK held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June. This leaves the unemployment rate well down on the 5.6% recorded during the same period a year ago and the lowest level in 11 years. However, the rate of earnings growth remained little changed in the latest reading. Despite the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) at the beginning of April, regular pay growth stood at 2.3% in the three months to June, up only slightly from the previous reading as other factors continue to weigh on wage settlements. The continuation of planned increases in the NLW and the expected rises in inflation may translate into higher wages over the next 12 months. However, weaker hiring intentions following the referendum outcome and the continued weakness in productivity growth will both provide drags on wage growth over this period. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jun-09 UK unemployment rate (LHS), per cent and 3-month annual growth in regular pay (RHS), per cent Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 4.9% 2.3% Dec-15 Jun-16 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Unemployment rate (LHS) Regular earnings growth (RHS) 11
Top 20% of households earning 10x those at the in the poorest quintile Income Groups Squeeze on benefits payments weighing on lower income households The average household in the top 20% of earners enjoyed a gross income of just under 1,890 per week in July 2016. This is more than ten times the average in the bottom 20%, who take home less than 180 a week. Working across the income quartiles, wages become an increasingly important share of household income as employment levels and wages rise but eligibility for social securities falls. Similarly, income from investments and pensions/annuities rises across the income scale. Given that social security benefits make up a smaller share of earnings as you move up the income scale, income quartiles towards the lower end of the scale saw the slowest gross income growth as social security benefits continue to be squeezed relative to wages. Gross income by Gross Income Quartile, July 2016 (YoY growth in brackets) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 12
Falling food prices providing boost to lower income households Income Groups Essential item inflation remains slightly negative across lower income groups In line with the UK average, essential item inflation remains low in each income quartile in July. As shown earlier in the report, the cost of key essentials such as food and drink and household electricity and gas remain well down on a year, easing pressures on the budgets of each of the income groups. However, given that these items comprise a greater share of the essential spending amongst the lowest income households, these categories have played a greater role in reducing price pressures on these groups. In contrast, the higher level of spending on categories such as transport and communication, both of which have seen prices rise over the past year, has pushed essential item inflation into positive territory for the top two income quintiles. Essential item inflation by Gross Income Quartile, July 2016 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% -0.05% -0.10% 13
Real wage growth provides spending power boost to higher income households Discretionary income remains negative for the poorest households Households with earnings just below the top 20% saw the fastest year-on-year rise in spending power in July in percentage terms, up 5.5% compared with the same time a year earlier. Similarly, the middle income group saw spending power rise by 5.4% year-on-year. In pound terms, the richest 20% of households saw the largest rise in spending power over the past 12 months, up 27 per week to just over 680. In contrast, the squeeze on incomes at the bottom end of the spectrum left discretionary incomes in the poorest 20% of households relatively flat compared with July 2015. As such, the typical discretionary income across this income group remains in negative territory. Income Groups Weekly Discretionary Income by Gross Income Quartile, July 2016 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 0 + 6 (5.4%) + 2 (3.6%) + 14 (5.5%) + 27 (4.2%) 14
Data and Method Appendix Please find attached method notes and the tabulated date. Asda produces a monthly income tracker report with a more comprehensive report every quarter. For press enquiries please contact: Jennifer Devlin, Asda Media Relations Manager, Jennifer.Devlin@Asda.co.uk ; 0113 826 4823 For data enquiries please contact: Sam Alderson, Cebr Economist, SAlderson@Cebr.com ; 020 7324 2874 15
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Figure 1: Asda Income Tracker and year-on-year change (excluding bonuses) 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 Asda Income Tracker tables 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 130-15% Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Asda Income Tracker (LHS) Asda Income Tracker annual % change (RHS) 16
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Asda Income Tracker tables Figure 2: Comparison of year-on-year change in Asda Income Tracker including and excluding bonuses 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 - 10-15 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Asda Income Tracker including Bonuses Asda Income Tracker excluding Bonuses 17
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Asda Income Tracker tables Figure 3: Twelve-month moving average of Income Tracker (excl. bonuses) level 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 18
Monthly Asda Income Tracker Asda Income Tracker tables Table 1: Average UK household Income Tracker, per week, current prices, excluding bonuses Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker Month Income tracker January 2012 164 January 2013 166 January 2014 170 January 2015 185 January 2016 197 February 2012 163 February 2013 163 February 2014 169 February 2015 185 February 2016 198 March 2012 163 March 2013 162 March 2014 168 March 2015 186 March 2016 197 April 2012 165 April 2013 167 April 2014 170 April 2015 188 April 2016 201 May 2012 168 May 2013 167 May 2014 171 May 2015 188 May 2016 201 June 2012 169 June 2013 169 June 2014 171 June 2015 189 June 2016 201 July 2012 171 July 2013 168 July 2014 173 July 2015 191 July 2016 202 August 2012 170 August 2013 166 August 2014 173 August 2015 191 September 2012 168 September 2013 166 September 2014 174 September 2015 192 October 2012 166 October 2013 167 October 2014 176 October 2015 193 November 2012 167 November 2013 167 November 2014 179 November 2015 193 December 2012 164 December 2013 165 December 2014 181 December 2015 193 2012 Average 166 2013 Average 166 2014 Average 173 2015 Average 190 19
Method notes The Asda income tracker is calculated from the following equations: Method notes Total household income minus taxes equals net income Net income minus basic spend equals Asda income tracker Total household income for the United Kingdom is derived from the Living Costs and Food Survey 2012 (released December 2013). This is updated on a monthly basis using official statistics on average earnings, unemployment, social security payments, interest rates and pension income. Earnings data from the Office for National Statistics that is released in the month of the report refers to the previous month. We forecast earnings data for the month of the report. Taxes are subtracted from total household income to estimate the actual amount that can be spent on goods and services, i.e. net income or disposable income. The average amount of tax paid is calculated using the latest version of the Living Costs and Food Survey. This is updated on a monthly basis using Office for National Statistics data and Cebr modelling. 20
Method notes Method notes These components are based on official statistics and Cebr calculations. Net income is calculated by deducting our tax estimate from our total household income estimate. Basic spend (cost of living) figures are updated using monthly consumer price data and the trend growth rate in the volume of essential goods and services purchased over the most recent ten year period. A full list of items constituting basic (or essential ) spending was created in collaboration between Asda and Cebr when the income tracker concept was originally formed in 2008. This list is available on request. The Asda income tracker is a measure of discretionary income, reflecting the amount remaining after the average UK household has had taxes subtracted from their income and bought essential items such as: groceries, electricity, gas, transport costs and mortgage interest payments or rent. The income tracker measures the amount left over to spend on discretionary purchases such as leisure and recreation goods and services. 21
Disclaimer Disclaimer This report was produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), an independent economics and business research consultancy established in 1993 providing forecasts and advice to City institutions, government departments, local authorities and numerous blue-chip companies throughout Europe. The main contributors to this report are Cebr economists Sam Alderson and Scott Corfe. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material in this report, the authors and Cebr will not be liable for any loss or damages incurred through the use of this report. London, August 2016 22