Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators September 215 Lutgert College Of Business 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965 Phone 239-59-79 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri
Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 6 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 6 Tourist Tax Revenues... 7 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 7 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA... 8 Single-Family Building Permits... 8 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County... 9 Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County... 9 Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County... 1 Taxable Sales... 1 Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region... 11 Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties... 11 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties... 12 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment... 12 Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment... 13 Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment... 13 Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment... 14 Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment... 14 Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment... 15 Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices... 15 Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County... 16 Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County... 16 Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County... 17 Consumer Sentiment Index... 17 Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index... 18 Consumer Price Index... 18 Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change... 19 Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change... 19 Population... 2 Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to 213... 2 Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to 213... 21 Chart 25: Population Projections by County... 21 2
Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-79 Email: cwestley@fgcu.edu Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7315 Email: sscheff@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-59-7489 Email: jbreitba@fgcu.edu Copyright 215 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background The Southwest Florida economy continued to exhibit strong growth, with the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the five-county region falling to 5.1 percent for August a full percentage point decrease from August 214. Similar patterns were observed for the state of Florida and the nation, as noted on page 12 of this report. Seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales were up 1 percent in June 215 versus June 214. Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for July 215 were up six percent for the region encompassing Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties. July 215 passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was four percent higher than the July 214 figure, fueled largely by a spike in traffic at Punta Gorda Airport. The August Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173, in August 215 compared to August 214, a decrease of 72, from July and below the 12-month average job growth of 243,25. The state of Florida contributed 19,6 of these jobs, which is more than 11 percent of the national job gain for the month. For the 12-month period ending in August 215, the state of Florida added 261,5 jobs, led by jobs in Education and Health Services (59,7), Leisure and Hospitality (55,6), and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (55,6). This state-level data is seasonally adjusted. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area recorded an increase of 6,5 jobs in August 215 compared to August 214, or 2.9 percent. The Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island metropolitan area reported 4,1 new jobs, or 3.2 percent. The Punta Gorda metropolitan area reported 1,7 new jobs, or 4. percent. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on September 17, and decided that U.S. economic conditions were still too fragile to weather an increase in the Federal Funds target interest rate. Nonetheless, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen said in a speech the following week in Amherst, Mass., that based on labor market trends and expected inflationary pressure, the Fed intends to raise its benchmark rate by the end of 215. Achieving these conditions will likely entail an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter, Ms. Yellen said. But if the economy surprises us, our judgments about appropriate monetary policy will change. The FOMC also released its latest quarterly forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on September 17. The September forecast was similar to the June forecast, but reflects slightly more optimistic growth and unemployment estimates through 218. The overall projected range for real GDP growth is 1.9 to 2.5 percent in 215, 2.1 to 2.8 percent in 216, 1.9 to 2.6 percent in 217, and 1.6 to 2.4 percent in 218. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the next. With regard to the unemployment rate, the overall projected range is 4.9 to 5.2 percent for the rest of 215, 4.5 to 5. 3
percent for 216, 4.5 to 5. percent for 217, and 4.6 to 5.3 percent for 218. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. The director and staff of RERI extend their sincere thanks and appreciation to the dedicated individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 4
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Total passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports rose to 66,74 in July 215, a fourpercent increase over July 214. While activity was down by one percent at RSW and by three percent at SRQ, this was more than offset by an increase of over 31, passengers at PGD, an increase of 59 percent. Perhaps this signals some shift in consumer preferences. Chart 1 shows Southwest Florida International Airport passenger activity of 492,114 in July 215, up two percent from the prior month. Sarasota Bradenton Airport recorded 82,492 passengers in July 215, down four percent from June 215, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity rose to 85,468 in July 215, up nine percent over June 215, as shown in Chart 3. 1,2 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,1 1, 9 8 212 213 214 215 7 6 5 4 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5
Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 175 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity 15 125 212 213 214 215 1 75 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 1 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity 9 8 7 6 5 4 215 214 212 3 2 1 213 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 6
Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4 and 5, and are based on month of occupancy. Seasonally adjusted revenues for Charlotte County in July 215 were up 18 percent over July 214 to $311,633. Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues dipped to $1,625,845, a decrease of two percent from July 214. Lee County s seasonally-adjusted revenues amounted to $3,81,866 in July 215, up nine percent over July 214. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties 14. 12. Tourist Tax Revenue 211 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 7
Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA 4. County Tourist Tax Revenue - 211 to present 3.5 3. 2.5 Lee 2. 1.5 Collier 1..5 Charlotte. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits Six hundred fifteen single-family building permits were issued in the three coastal counties in August 215, an increase of 134 (28 percent) over August 214, albeit 3 fewer than July 215. Lee County issued 314 permits in August 215, up 3 percent over August 214, as shown in Chart 6. In August 215, Collier County reported issuing 217 permits, 21 percent more than August 214, as shown in Chart 7. Charlotte County issued 84 permits in August 215, an increase of 4 percent over August 214, as shown in Chart 8. Hendry County has issued 12 permits through August 215, compared to eight during the first eight months of 214. 8
25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Aug 215 Permits Issued 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Aug 215 Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 25-214 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 1 Permits Linear Trend 1 1 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 25-214 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 3 25 2 15 1 5 Permits Linear Trend Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 9
25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Aug 215 Permits Issued Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 25-214 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 2 15 1 Permits Linear Trend 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections; i.e., one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five Southwest Florida counties had total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales of $2.7 billion in June 215, an increase of 1 percent (or $189.6 million) over June 214. Charts 1 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased from $1.15 billion in June 214 to $1.126 billion in June 215, an 11 percent increase. Collier County s taxable sales increased from $646.3 million to $7.6 million, up eight percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County s taxable sales grew by 12 percent from $19.5 million in June 214 to $212.5 million in June 215. Hendry County s taxable sales were up six percent from $26.3 million in June 214 to $28. million in June 215. Taxable sales in Glades County also rose, increasing eight percent from $3.6 million in June 214 to $3.8 million in June 215. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 1
Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3. Taxable Sales 211 to Present - 5 County Region 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,2 Coastal County Taxable Sales - 211 to Present 1, 8 Lee 6 Collier 4 2 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 11
Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 35 Inland County Taxable Sales - 211 to Present 3 Hendry 25 2 15 All Data Seasonally Adjusted 1 5 Glades Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 12-16 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 25 to August 215, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region was 5.1 percent in August 215, down from 5.3 percent in July, and down from 6.1 percent in August 214. The regional improvement is primarily attributable to a seasonallyadjusted decrease of 6,96 unemployed since August 214. Total employed increased by 1,521 persons. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in August 215, down from 6. percent in August 214 and from 5. percent in July 215, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County s unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in August 215, down from 5.8 percent in August 214 and from 5.2 percent in July 215, as shown in Chart 13. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Charlotte County was 5.7 percent in August 215, down from 6.8 percent in August 214, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County s August 215 unemployment rate dropped to 8.9 percent, down from 1.1 percent in August 214, and from 9.5 percent in July 215, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County amounted to 6.6 percent in August 215, compared to 6.8 percent in August 214 and 7.2 percent in July 215, as shown in Chart 16. Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent in August 215 from a revised 5.5 percent in July, down.6 points from August 214. Nationally, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate has declined from 6.1 percent in August 214 to 5.3 percent in July 215 and to 5.1 percent in August 215. 12
Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 13
Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 14
Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts 17-19. The line represents median prices plotted against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. 1,736 single-family homes were sold in the three coastal counties during August 215, eight more than were reported in August 214. Lee County sales amounted to 1,25 units in August 215, a decrease of one percent from August 214, but with a 12 percent increase in the median price to $25, over the same period. Collier County singlefamily home sales declined to 348 units in August 215, down from 368 in August 214 and from 358 in July 215. The median price in Collier County was $388, in August 215, compared to $317, in August 214 and $379, in July 215. Charlotte County reported 363 single-family homes sold in August 215, up 13 percent over August 214, coupled with a 21-percent increase in the median price over the same period. 15
Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Aug 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Aug 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 16 $25 14 12 $2 1 8 6 $15 $1 4 2 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $5 $ Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 6 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $45 5 4 $4 $35 $3 3 2 $25 $2 $15 1 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $1 $5 $ * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com 16
Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Aug 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $2 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 2 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. Both indices are more than 1 percent above their prior year levels. The national ICS was down 1.2 points to 91.9 in August 215 from 93.1 in July 215, but well above the 82.5 level of August 214. The August 28, 215 Survey of Consumers noted that Consumer confidence declined in late August mainly due to the recent volatility in stock prices. The overall decline was quite small, occurring very late in the month, as well as being offset by still quite favorable job and income prospects. To be sure, when data become available in mid-september, much more will be known about consumers reactions to the volatile stock market. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index rose.7 points from July 215 to 91.2 in August 215; this was 8.8 points higher than the August 214 figure. In the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index of August 28, 215, Survey Director Chris McCarty noted that [o]n balance, the preliminary index for August is relatively upbeat, but this does not show the full effect of the decline in the stock market. Prior to the crash that began about a week ago Floridians were particularly optimistic about the future direction of the U.S. economy. Much of that optimism was likely erased this week when the panic in the Chinese stock market spilled over into U.S. equities. Even as the market recovers, losses of this magnitude will raise questions among consumers, many who are invested in stocks through retirement accounts. 17
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 5 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Chart 21 shows year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through August 215. The data indicate that consumer price inflation continues to moderate noticeably. The latest data shows that the August 215 National CPI was only.2 percent above the August 214 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI actually decreased by.2 percent over that same 12-month period. Closer to home, the Miami- Ft. Lauderdale CPI increased by 1.3 percent between August 214 and August 215. 18
Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Source: BLS Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending August 215. The largest increases since August 214 were in apparel (1.2 percent), other goods and services (6.7 percent), medical care (6.1 percent), and housing (3.3 percent). Lower gasoline prices were a major factor in keeping Miami-Fort Lauderdale s index at 1.3 percent, contributing to an 8.9 percent reduction in the transportation segment. Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending August 215 Apparel Other goods and services * Medical care Housing Food and beverages Recreation Education and communication Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12% Source: BLS 12 Month Percentage Change 19
Population - Thousands Population As previously reported, the following charts show historic population growth as well as population projections recently updated by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Regional population growth from 199 to 213 averaged 2.8 percent per year and is shown in Charts 23 and 24. The compound average annual rate of growth for 199 to 213 was 3.5 percent in Collier County, 2.9 percent in Lee, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.7 percent each in Charlotte and Hendry Counties. Chart 25 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. The regional projected population growth averages a slower 1.5 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 5 percent for the five-county region from 213 to 24. The total 5-county population projection is 1,79,74 for 24. Lee County population is projected to grow an average of 1.8 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at.8 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of.3 percent per year and Glades County at.8 percent per year. Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to 213 7 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties 6 643 5 4 335 Lee 334 3 Collier 2 152 164 1 111 Charlotte 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 214. 2
Populaton (Thousands) Population - Thousands Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to 213 45 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry 37.8 3 25 25.8 2 15 1 7.6 Glades 12.7 5 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 214. 2, 1,8 Chart 25: Population Projections by County Population Projections 215-24 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 215 22 225 23 235 24 Glades 12,894 13,478 14,11 14,496 14,89 15,227 Hendry 38,121 39,31 39,741 4,275 4,67 4,892 Charlotte 166,34 174,121 18,958 186,962 192,774 197,729 Collier 345,1 379,59 411,368 441,93 47,69 492,533 Lee 673,826 758,621 837,828 911,479 98,632 1,44,323 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 214. 21