FX Viewpoint Tuesday, January 17, 217 Asia Net portfolio capital inflow update The net portfolio inflow environment in Asia remains largely supportive and should bolster the regional currencies if the broad dollar continues to flail. Within the construct of this metric, the KRW and the INR continue to have relatively more potential upside (in the face of a further dollar retreat) while the PHP can continue to inch higher in line with its improving portfolio situation. Meanwhile, the TWD is looking slightly rich on a short term horizon relative to its subdued equity inflows. Elsewhere, net inflows for the IDR have moderated and may limit the local unit s potential for appreciation in the short term. Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 69-1888 / 1881 Fixed Income & Structured Products Tel: 69-181 Investments & Structured Product Tel: 69-1886 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 69-1899 Treasury Research & Strategy Tel: 3-87 Emmanuel Ng + 3 473 ngcyemmanuel@ocbc.com
USD-TWD USD-TWD USD-KRW USD-KRW 18 125 7 - - - - 11 112 114 116 118 12 122 124 Aug-215 Nov-215 Feb-216 May-216 Jul-216 Oct-216 Jan-217 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS USD-KRW 12 115 11 15-1 NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS 2 1 - - SOUTH KOREA 12 14 16 18 11 112 114 116 118 12 122 124 8-Jun-12 15-Mar-13 2-Dec-13 26-Sep-14 3-Jul-15 8-Apr-16 13-Jan-17 NFB: Bond & Equity:RS6 USD-KRW (RHS) 125 12 115 11 15 - Bond & Eq RS 6D 3.5.. -.5. 3 - -.5 -. Sep-215 Dec-215 Mar-216 Jun-216 Oct-216 Jan-217 NFB: 2d RS USD-TWD - - - NFB: 2D RS 1 TWD vs Net foreign equity interest..5 3. 3.5...5 3 - -..5 -. 12-Mar-14 27-Nov-14 14-Aug-15 3-Apr-16 15-Jan-17 6-day RS USD-TWD - - 1 TSEC net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 2
USD-IDR USD-IDR USD-INR USD-INR INDIA 64.5 7 India..5 66. 6 66.5 - - 67. 55 67.5-68. 5-68.5-69. Dec-215 Mar-216 Jun-216 Oct-216 Jan-217 NFB: Bond & Eq RS 2D USD-INR - - NFB: Bond & Eq 2D RS INR vs net foreign bond & equity interest 58 7 India 59 1 6 61 62 63 6 64 55 - - 66 67 5 68-1 69 Apr-14 Nov-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 RS6 USD-INR - - SEBI net bond & eq RS6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 136 1-138 1 1-142 - - 1 1 9-1 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Bond & Equity:2D RS USD-IDR -7 - - Bond & Equity: 2D RS 1 15 1 1 115 1 1 1-125 1 1-135 - - - 1 1 1 2-Dec-13 26-Sep-14 3-Jul-15 8-Apr-16 13-Jan-17 Bond & Equity: 6D RS USD-IDR 9 - - Net foreign bond & eq RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 3
USD-PHP USD-PHP USD-THB USD-THB 25 15 5-5 -.5..5 35. 35.5 36. 37 36 35 3-15 36.5-37. Nov-215 Apr-216 Aug-216 Jan-217 Net bond & equity WTD RS2 USD-THB - - Net bond & equity WTD RS2 - - -...5..5..5 35. 35.5 36. 36.5 37. 19-Dec-13 25-Sep-14 2-Jul-15 7-Apr-16 12-Jan-17 Net bond & equity WTD RS6 USD-THB 37 36 35 3 - - Net bond & equity WTD RS6 6 4..5 5 2..5 47. -2 47.5-4 -6-8 -..5 49. 49.5 5. Nov-215 Apr-216 Aug-216 Jan-217 NFB: RS2 USD-PHP 42 4-15 - -5 5 15 NFB: RS2 PHP vs Net foreign equity interest 15 43 5 47-5 - -15 49 5 2-Dec-13 26-Sep-14 3-Jul-15 8-Apr-16 13-Jan-17 USD-PHP NFB: RS 6 5 49 47 43 42 41 4 - - Net foreign buying RS6 Treasury & Strategy Research 4
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