> Central and Eastern Europe > 4 th Capital Markets Day > Bucharest, > Reinhard Ortner, CFO, Erste Bank
> Disclaimer Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS AND OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ON MANAGEMENT S CURRENT VIEWS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR EVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCH STATEMENTS. NONE OF ERSTE BANK OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT. THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. STATEMENTS REGARDING ANY CONTRIBUTION OF BCR TO ERSTE BANK STRATEGY AND RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO COMPLETION OF THE ACQUISITION OF 61.88% OF BCR BY ERSTE BANK. COMPLETION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN OCTOBER 2006 SUBJECT TO A POSITIVE DECISION OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT IN ROMANIA. 2
> Agenda Home market» Our region continues to grow» Our market in numbers» Well-balanced portfolio Hot topics» Macroeconomic characteristics of growth markets» Foreign exchange lending» Margin trend review Conclusion 3
> The Bank for Central and Eastern Europe Bankable population: 92m people 1 2 Client base: 15.6m people Client share: 17%, target > 15% 3 Clients: 5.3m; #1 Retail deposit share: 33% Branches: 637 4 Clients: 2.5m; #1 Retail deposits: 32% Branches: 300 Clients: 0.9m; #2 Retail deposits: 6% Branches: 171 Clients: 0.6m; #3 Retail deposits: 11% Branches: 124 5 1 9 4 2 3 6 7 10 8 5 6 Clients: 0.6m; # 2 Retail deposits (inc. SBs): 21% Branches: - Own :142 - Subsidiaries: 134 Clients: 0.2m; ~#9 Retail deposits: 2% Branches: 66 5 7 10 Clients: 2.2m Branches: 708 Clients: 3.2m; #1 Retail deposits: 32% Branches: 446 (08/06) 8 Bank Prestige Founded in Dec 2005 9 Indirectly represented through Kärtner Sparkasse 4
> Home market in numbers* a snapshot 56,065 64.3% Proforma risk-weighted asset distribution (H1 06) (in EUR million) CEE 31,169 35.7% 7,987 9.2% 11,718 13.4% 3,239 3.7% 1,239 1.4% 3,793 4.3% 3,193 3.7% 117,259 68.5% Proforma asset distribution (H1 06) (in EUR million) 10,837 6.3% CEE 53,807 31.5% 7,571 4.4% 5,957 3.5% 24,709 4,504 14.4% 229 2.6% 0.1% Austria & Intl, CC CS BCR SLSP EBH EBC EBS + other CEE Austria & Intl, CC CS BCR SLSP EBH EBC EBS 207 39.7% Proforma net profit distribution (H1 06) (in EUR million) CEE 159 313 29.4% 60.3% -11 12 34-2.1% 2.3% 6.2% 71 13.1% 48 8.9% Austria & Intl, CC CS BCR SLSP EBH EBC EBS 15,559 31.5% Employee distribution (H1 06) CEE 33,789 68.5% 10,706 21.7% 781 1.6% 1,678 3.4% 2,729 5.5% 13,000 26.3% 4,895 9.9% Austria & Intl, CC CS BCR SLSP EBH EBC EBS *) RWA distribution pursuant to Austrian Banking Act. Net profit distribution according to segment reporting. Asset distribution according to local IFRS data. 5
> Portfolio balance geared towards long-term growth Emerging Developing Mature Banking assets/gdp in 2005 (in %) 200 150 100 50 0 Product focus / earnings drivers Ukraine 5-20 years 15-20 years Slovakia Croatia 00 Serbia Romania Croatia 05 Czech R Hungary 00 Hungary 05 Poland Slovenia Austria *) = 10m inhabitants *) Domestic assets only. 1 5 10 20 100 GDP/capita in 2005 (in EUR thousand, log scale), time Savings, payment transfers Current accounts, debit cards, mortgages Credit cards, consumer finance Asset and wealth management, insurance and pensions 6
> Agenda Home market» Our region continues to grow» Our market in numbers» Well-balanced portfolio Hot topics» Macroeconomic characteristics of growth markets» Foreign exchange lending» Margin trend review Conclusion 7
> Hot topics macro characteristics of growth markets Real GDP growth - CEE vs EU15 Current account deficits vs FDI coverage 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 4.3% 5.8% 4.4% EU-15 growth 6. 6. 8% 6% 4% 2% 135.9% 2.5% 174.8% 3.6% 8.1% 54.3% 5. 83.4% 9. 87.4% 20 15 10 5 PL CZ HU SK RO PL CZ HU SK RO Real GDP growth (04-06 ave) CA deficit/gdp (04-06 ave) FDI coverage (04-06 ave) Export quotas (% of GDP) in CEE Interest rate convergence in CEE * 10 PL CZ HU SK RO 3 29.7% PL CZ HU SK RO 8 6 4 2 26% 39% 54% 75% 62% 7 6 82% 23% 32% 2 9.3% 4.2% 3.6% 2.1% 9.2% 6.5% 7.8% 3.9% 8.7% 1998 2006e 1998 2006e 1998 2006e 1998 2006e 1998 2006e 2002 2006 2002 2006 2002 2006 2002 2006 2002 2006 Source for charts: Eurostat, local central banks. *) 2006 data is year-to-date. 8
> Hot topics foreign exchange lending Central bank behaviour» Austria - public statements, but no action» Hungary - no direct measures, general monetary policy» Croatia, Romania, Serbia - introduction of various restrictions» Reserve requirements on FX liabilities» Reserve requirement for excess growth» FX loans limited to multiple of capital Reasons for restrictions» Tackling foreign indebtedness, irrespective of source (public/private)» Reducing current account deficits» Reducing vulnerability to external shocks How do our markets stack up?» FX loans are wide-spread in countries with positive interest spreads vs EURIBOR» Croatia and Romania are experiencing a moderation in FX loan growth 7 6 5 4 3 2 12 10 8 6 4 2 FX loan prevalence in key markets 61.8% 60.4% 55.6% 54. 50.6% 45. 37.2% 37.3% 40.3% 47.6% 18.8% 18.4% 19. 20.2% 19.9% 12.4% 10.3% 11.4% 13.5% 13.7% 2002 2003 2004 2005 H1 06 Croatia Romania Austria Hungary Romania - FX loans lagging RON loan growth 100.1% 70.5% 51.7% 49.8% 43.9% (ytd) 21.5% 29.8% 11.1% (ytd) 2003 2004 2005 H1 06 RON loan growth (yoy) FX loan growth (yoy) Source for charts: local central banks. FX loan data for Croatia as reported by Croatian National Bank does not include HRK loans with FX clause. 9
> Hot topics consistent margin trends* CS margin development SLSP margin development 14% 14% 12% 12% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 CS - NII/RWA CS - NII/Loans CS NII/IBA SLSP - NII/RWA SLSP - NII/Loans SLSP NII/IBA Erste Bank Hungary margin development Erste Bank Croatia margin development 14% 12% Increase in scope of RwA consolidation 14% 12% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q1/04 Q2/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q2/06 EBH - NII/RWA EBH - NII/Loans EBH NII/IBA EBC - NII/RWA EBC - NII/Loans EBC NII/IBA *) Calculation methodology: annualised quarterly net interest income to average quarterly risk-weighted assets, average quarterly interest bearing assets and eop loans. Riskweighted assets pursuant to Austrian Banking Act. 10
> Agenda Home market» Our region continues to grow» Our market in numbers» Well-balanced portfolio Hot topics» Macroeconomic characteristics of growth markets» Foreign exchange lending» Margin trend review Conclusion 11
> Conclusion CEE economies are in good shape positive outlook for 2007» Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania to remain growth leaders» Inflationary environment to be equally positive» Single-digit inflation is expected in all countries in 2007» Hungary will experience a difficult year, but should benefit in the medium term Banking markets will continue to grow» Penetration ratios expected to rise in all countries in 2007» Restrictions will slow growth to sustainable levels without hurting our model» Retail and mortgage loans will continue to be major growth drivers Erste Bank will profit from growing CEE exposure» Return on equity above 2 in all CEE countries in 2007» Only exceptions are: Serbia 2007 will be turn-around year Ukraine implementation of expansion strategy» Cost/income ratio below 55% in all CEE countries in 2007» With the exception of Serbia and Ukraine (see above) 12