Aneeka Gupta Associate Director Equities & Commodities research@etfsecurities.com 11 December 217 ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Precious metal flows bifurcated by gold and silver Industrial metal ETPs saw the lion s share of outflows amounting to US$13.4mn, led by outflows from broad basket ETPs. Precious metal ETP flows were polarised, as gold ETPs suffer the largest outflows while silver ETPs receive the largest inflows. Crude oil ETP outflows persist for the 12 th week in a row, largely driven by WTI crude oil ETPs. Weekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals Agriculture Livestock Equities Bonds FX -74-3 -12-17 -25-1 -5 5 Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Silver Nickel Natural Gas EUR JPY Precious metals -1 1.4 Industrial metals -1 1.9 Diversified -1 2.4 Crude oil -29.6 Gold -5.8 Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performers Cotton Europe Equity USD NZD NOK Carbon Zinc Coffee Cocoa Natural Gas -2% -1% % So urce: ETF Securities No te: s ee next page (*) 1 7 4 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.6-7 -2 3-7.9% -9.7 % -4.9% -5.% -5.1 % 41.7 1.3% 1.2% 1.1 %.8%.7 % Industrial metal ETPs break the two week winning streak of inflows, registering outflows of US$13.4mn on the back of profit taking by investors after strong price gains. The outflows were dominated by broad basket ETPs worth US$118.4mn. We expect the supply deficit to extend into 218 owing to the lack of investment in mining infrastructure. In addition strong growth from emerging markets (accounting for 7% of demand) should support demand for industrial metals going forward. Gold ETPs suffer outflows of US$39.6mn for the third consecutive week. Gold is poised for its biggest weekly price drop -2.63% since May as the strong jobs report released on Friday underpins the Fed s case for tighter monetary policy, thereby curbing the appeal for the non-interest bearing bullion. The anticipation of higher U.S. interest rates coupled with progress on tax reform has helped lift the US dollar higher adding further pressure on gold prices. Furthermore the improvement in risk appetite considering the postponement of the US partial government shutdown and ongoing progress in the Brexit negotiations have diminished gold s role as a safe haven asset. Bitcoin s explosive appreciation has also taken some of the shine off gold. We expect gold to remain flat over the coming year discounting the likelihood of any geopolitical flare up. Record low prices drive bargain hunters into silver ETPs attracting the highest inflows worth US$42.5mn in 1 weeks. Known to derive majority of its use in the industrial applications sector, silver looks under-priced when compared to the rally staged by the industrial metals sector. It has also lagged its precious metal counterparts owing to negative sentiment. As the narrative for improving global economic conditions remains intact, we expect silver to rebound from current levels buoyed by positive investor sentiment and rising industrial demand. Outflows from crude oil ETPs amounting to US$2.4mn persist for the 12 th consecutive week, largely driven by outflows worth US$19.3mn from WTI crude oil ETPs. We continue to believe that the OPEC led rally is likely to be short lived and the current high compliances levels are at risk of slipping as the option for a premature exit from the production cuts has been inserted. Given the current pace of oil production expansion in the US, the global supply deficit will be short lived and this is likely to weigh on prices going forward. Note: All flow and data in this report are based on ETF Securities ETP numbers to 8 December 217 and are denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
2 ETF Securities ETF Securities Commodity ETP Flow Trends ETP FLOWS (in US$m) ASSETS TOTAL -73.9 96.2 1,87.5 1,749.3 22,94 Diversified -12.4-4.4-17.8 12.2 1,26 PERFORMANCE (US$) Precious Metals -24.8-32.7 58.8 445.1 15,53 Basket -11.4-34.5 63.2 71.1 515-2.6% -3.2% 4.% 1.5% Gold -5.8-64.7 464.7 368.5 12,386-1.6% -2.3% 7.9% 7.4% Silver 41.7 73.5 17. 67.7 1,364-3.1% -6.4% -2.5% -6.6% Platinum -2.9 2. 12.3 99.8 895-3.6% -4.% -1.2% -3.2% Palladium -1.4-9. -156.4-162. 37 -.3% 1.3% 49.2% 35.5% Energy -3.3-119.9-247.5-365.4 1,562 Basket -3.6-14.2 11.5 1.5 96-4.% -5.2% -1.2% -7.6% Crude oil -29.6-111.2-36.6-412.1 1,338-2.4% -2.% 4.6% 7.9% Natural Gas 3.3 7.2 51.1 45.5 9-9.7% -16.4% -4.4% -4.7% Heating Oil. -.5. -2.8 5.8-2.3% -2.1% 5.1% 1.% Gasoline -.4-1.2-4.4-7.4 29.9-2.4% -5.3% -2.8% 6.% Carbon...8.8 2.1-4.9%.3% 22.9% 8.2% Industrial Metals -17.4 11.8 129. 144.5 949 Basket -11.9 45.8 16.7 19.8 389-3.8% -5.% 14.5% 7.7% Aluminium -1.4 5.6 19.6 18.4 133-3.2% -4.6% 14.9% 11.1% Copper -6.2 38. 21.6 29.2 263-4.1% -4.3% 14.7% 8.5% Nickel 3.3 13.6-2.1 1.5 133-2.2% -9.% 7.5% -6.2% Zinc -1. -.8-13.7-12.4 23-5.% -4.3% 19.2% 13.1% Tin.2.1 -.3 -.7 3.9 -.1%.2% -7.1% -6.1% Lead -.4 -.6-2.7-1.4 2.7-4.6% -3.5% 18.5% 2.8% Agriculture 6.7-7.9 238.9 215.9 771 Basket. 1.4 67.1 52.5 317-1.7% -1.4% -11.4% -13.5% Wheat.3-13.4 5.5-1.7 131-3.9% -6.2% -14.7% -16.4% Corn 1. -12. 4.1-1.9 55-2.% -1.4% -12.9% -14.8% Soybeans 1.2 2. 3.7 4.7 19 -.2%.5% -5.2% -9.3% Cotton -.6 -.9 3.2 2.2 15 1.3% 7.4% 5.% 4.8% Coffee 2.5 1.8 75.3 81.7 115-5.1% -6.1% -19.2% -2.5% Sugar.5 -.7 29.4 24.8 47-4.5% -4.3% -3.4% -29.4% Soybean Oil -.4.4 -.1 -.8 3.5-1.1% -4.7% -7.4% -13.8% Cocoa 2.1 4.5 5.6 54.4 69-7.9% -15.% -14.1% -15.8% Livestock -.1. -1.9-5.1 9 Basket... -.1 1.9-2.9% -5.1% 2.3% 8.3% Lean Hogs -.1.1-1.7-4. 5.3-3.2% -2.6% -3.1% 4.1% Live Cattle. -.1 -.3-1.1 1.8-2.7% -6.3% 5.3% 1.5% Equities.9 166.2 1,92.3 1,11.7 2,78 Global 2.3 131.3 1,5.1 1,25. 1,553 -.4%.8% 21.1% 2.4% US. 7.2 34.7 36.1 124 -.2% 2.3% 2.% 19.1% Europe -2.3 24.2 42. 25.1 336 1.2%.1% 8.9% 11.1% Asia.. -1.2-5.8 27-1.6% -6.1% 16.7% 1.2% Australia.8 3.5 2.8 21.2 38..% -.1% 1.6% 12.9% Bonds -.3-1.6 111.8 114.8 494 Global -.3 -.1 52.9 5.2 153 -.1%.4% 4.9% 5.% Europe.. -1.7-8.3 21.1%.9% 1.8% 2.7% Emerging Markets. -1.6 69.5 72.8 32 -.2% 1.1% 11.3% 11.5% FX 3.9-5.3-15.1 85.8 521 G1.1. 1.2 1.2 2.8 USD.7-11.1-62.3 39.6 36 1.1% -.5% -8.1% -7.6% CAD. -.2.1 -.2 3.7 -.8% -1.4% 3.5% 1.2% EUR 2.9-8.3-32.9 7.6 41 -.4%.7% 7.% 7.8% GBP 1.4 2.5 22.1 23. 115 -.5%.5% 1.3% -.6% CHF -.2 1.7.6.2 15.9 -.4% -.7% -6.4% -6.1% NOK. -2.1 1.9 1.2 1.1.7% -2.7% -4.6% -5.5% SEK. 2.8 9.3 8.6 16.6 -.7% -2.1% -1.5%.1% JPY 2.6 3.8 24.5 22.1 79.4%.2% -.6% -1.9% CNY.. -1. -1.1 2.8.5% -.2%.%.3% INR.. -.4 -.4.4.3%.3% -.5% -.7% AUD.2.4 2. 1.8 11. -.6% -2.3% -.2% -2.3% NZD..1.1.1 1.8.8% -1.3% -6.3% -7.7% Commodity FX. -.2 1.7 1.7.9 (*) All data as at 8 Dec 17, based on ETF Securities global commodity ETP flows and assets. In FX due to being pair trades there is double counting. Price performance is based on NAV data for commodities, indices for Bonds & Equities, Trade weighted indices for FX, Bloomberg
3 ETF Securities Net Cumulative Flows by Asset Classes over the past year Com modities 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Bonds 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Equities 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Currencies 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 All Commodity ETPs Flows Analysis DIVERSIFIED Diversified -12.4-4.4-17.8 12.2 1,26 All Commodities -12. -13.6-14.7 2.3 943 Ex-Energy. -.1..1 1 Ex-Ags and Liv -.5 9.3-3.1-8.2 82 Past Month Flows in Diversified ETPs DIVERSIFIED -$4.4 All Commodities -$13.6 Ex-Energy Ex-Agriculture and Livestock $9.3 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Net Cumulative Flows into Diversified Commodities 4 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 25 2 Ex-Agriculture and Livestock 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25
4 ETF Securities Energy ETPs Flows Analysis ENERGY Energy -3.3-119.9-247.5-365.4 1,562 Energy Basket -3.6-14.2 11.5 1.5 96 Crude oil -29.6-111.2-36.6-412.1 1,338 Natural Gas 3.3 7.2 51.1 45.5 9 Heating Oil. -.5. -2.8 6 Gasoline -.4-1.2-4.4-7.4 3 Carbon...8.8 2 Past Month Flows Trends in Energy ETPs ENERGY -2. -117.9 Energy Basket. -14.2 Crude oil -.8-11.4 Natural Gas -1.2 8.5 Heating Oil Gasoline. -1.3 Carbon Net Cumulative Flows into Energy 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 2 1 Crude oil -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7 Precious Metals ETPs Flows Analysis PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals -24.8-32.7 58.8 445.1 15,53 PM Basket -11.4-34.5 63.2 71.1 515 Gold -5.8-64.7 464.7 368.5 12,386 Silver 41.7 73.5 17. 67.7 1,364 Platinum -2.9 2. 12.3 99.8 895 Palladium -1.4-9. -156.4-162. 37 Past Month Flows in Precious Metals ETPs PRECIOUS METALS PM Basket Gold -$1.8 -$.4 -$3.8 -$34.5 -$64.3 Silver -$.9 $74.4 Platinum -$.5 $2.6 Palladium -$9. Net Cumulative Flows into Precious Metals 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 25 2 Silver 15 1 5-5 -1
5 ETF Securities Industrial Metals ETPs Flows Analysis INDUSTRIAL META Industrial Metals -17.4 11.8 129. 144.5 949 IM Basket -11.9 45.8 16.7 19.8 389 Aluminium -1.4 5.6 19.6 18.4 133 Copper -6.2 38. 21.6 29.2 263 Nickel 3.3 13.6-2.1 1.5 133 Zinc -1. -.8-13.7-12.4 23 Tin.2.1 -.3 -.7 4 Lead -.4 -.6-2.7-1.4 3 Past Month Flows in Industrial Metals ETPs INDUSTRIAL METALS IM Basket Aluminium Copper Nickel -$1.4 -$.9 -$.7 $13.2 $45.8 $5.6 $38.9 $14.3 Zinc -$.9 $.1 Tin $.1 $. $.1 $. 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 Net Cumulative Flows into Industrial Metals 6 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1% 12 Copper 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Agriculture ETPs Flows Analysis AGRICULTURE Agriculture 6.7-7.9 238.9 215.9 771 Agri Basket. 1.4 67.1 52.5 317 Wheat.3-13.4 5.5-1.7 131 Corn 1. -12. 4.1-1.9 55 Soybeans 1.2 2. 3.7 4.7 19 Cotton -.6 -.9 3.2 2.2 15 Coffee 2.5 1.8 75.3 81.7 115 Sugar.5 -.7 29.4 24.8 47 Soybean Oil -.4.4 -.1 -.8 4 Cocoa 2.1 4.5 5.6 54.4 69 1,5 1,3 1,1 9 7 5 Net Cumulative Flows into Agriculture 3 212 213 214 215 216 217 Past Month Flows in Agricultural ETPs AGRICULTURE -$1.6 -$6.4 Agri Basket -$.8 $11.1 Wheat$. Corn -$13.3 -$11.8 Soybeans $2.3 Cotton -$.3 -$.6 Coffee -$.1 $1.9 Sugar -$.8 $.1 Soybean Oil $. $.3 Cocoa -$.3 $4.8-1% -5% % 5% 1% 9 8 Cocoa 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
6 ETF Securities Livestock ETPs Flows Analysis LIVESTOCK Livestock -.1. -1.9-5.1 9 Livestock Basket... -.1 2 Lean Hogs -.1.1-1.7-4. 5 Live Cattle. -.1 -.3-1.1 2 Past Month Flows in Livestock ETPs LIVESTOCK -$.2 $.2 Livestock Basket $. Lean Hogs -$.1 $.2 Live Cattle -$.1 Net Cumulative Flows into Livestock 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 212 213 214 215 216 217-1% -5% % 5% 1%.8.6.4.2. -.2 Live Cattle -.4 -.6 -.8-1. -1.2-1.4 Equity ETPs Flows Analysis EQUITIES Region.9 166.2 1,92.3 1,11.7 2,78 Global 2.3 131.3 1,5.1 1,25. 1,553 US. 7.2 34.7 36.1 124 Europe -2.3 24.2 42. 25.1 336 Asia.. -1.2-5.8 27 Australia.8 3.5 2.8 21.2 38 Themes 2.3 138. 1,23.9 1,44.8 1,633 Small Cap..4-1.7-1.7 44 MLP. 6.2 2.5 21.5 36 Gold Miners.. 14.9 16.7 188 Robo. 119.2 654.4 67.6 1,17 Cyber 2.3 12.1 245.8 247.7 349 Past Month Flows in Equity ETPs EQUITIES Global US $161.3 $131.3 $7.2 $4.9 Europe Asia $19.4 $4.9 Australia $3.5 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Equities 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 212 213 214 215 216 217 8. 7. Robo 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1..
7 ETF Securities Bond ETPs Flows Analysis BONDS Bonds -.3-1.6 111.8 114.8 494 Global -.3 -.1 52.9 5.2 153 Europe.. -1.7-8.3 21 Emerging Markets. -1.6 69.5 72.8 32 Government -.3-2.3 69.7 71.8 36 Corporate..7 42.1 42.9 134 Past Month Flows in Bond ETPs BONDS -$1.6 Global -$.1 Europe Emerging Markets -$1.6-1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 6 5 Net Cumulative Flows into Bonds 4 2 Europe 4 3 2-2 -4-6 1-8 215 216 217-1 Currency ETPs Flows Analysis CURRENCIES FX 3.9-5.3-15.1 85.8 521 G1.1. 1.2 1.2 3 USD.7-11.1-62.3 39.6 36 CAD. -.2.1 -.2 4 EUR 2.9-8.3-32.9 7.6 41 GBP 1.4 2.5 22.1 23. 115 CHF -.2 1.7.6.2 16 NOK. -2.1 1.9 1.2 1 SEK. 2.8 9.3 8.6 17 JPY 2.6 3.8 24.5 22.1 79 CNY.. -1. -1.1 3 INR.. -.4 -.4 AUD.2.4 2. 1.8 11 NZD..1.1.1 2 Commodity FX. -.2 1.7 1.7 1 n.b. Due to each currency being a pair, there is double counting in the flow data 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 Net Cumulative Flows into Currencies 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 G1 USD CAD EUR GBP CHF NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. -2. Past Month Flows in Currency ETPs -2.9 -.21 -.25-26.42 -.11-22.48...24 15.36 14.23 1.55 2.67 1.67 2.78.22.8.91 1.1.8-1% -5% % 5% 1% USD -4.
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