Chart Collection for Morning Briefing February 12, 219 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
25 Figure 1. 2-YEAR US TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (percent, weekly) 25 2 2 15 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.5) Federal Funds Rate (2.4) 15 5 5 2/8 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 3.2 3. 2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1 1..6.4.2. Figure 2. 2-YEAR TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FUTURES (percent) Interest Rates 2-Year Treasury Yield (2.48) Fed Funds Rate 12-month Forward Futures (2.36) Federal Funds Target Rate (2.38) 215 216 217 218 219 Source: US Treasury & Chicago Mercantile Exchange. 3.2 3. 2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1 1..6.4.2. Page 3 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
45 4 35 3 Figure 3. YIELD CURVE (basis points) -Year Treasury Minus Federal Funds Target Rate (27.5) 2-Year Treasury (17.) 45 4 35 3 25 25 2 2 15 15 5 5-5 -5-22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Federal Reserve Board. - 9 8 Figure 4. S&P 5 VIX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND SPREAD 25 7 S&P 5 VIX (16.) 2 6 5 High-Yield Corporate Spread* (415.9) 15 4 3 2 5 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 * US high-yield corporate bond yield less -year Treasury bond yield (basis points). Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange, Bank of America Merill Lynch, and Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Figure 5. S&P 5 VIX & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS 8 6 S&P 5 VIX (16.) Investors Intelligence Bears (percent) (2.6) 8 6 4 4 2 2/5 2 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Source: Investors Intelligence and Chicago Board Options Exchange. 3 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 2 2 19 18 17 Figure 6. S&P 5 INDEX 215 216 217 218 219 22 Note: Dotted lines show previous years closing prices. Source: Standard & Poor s. 3 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 2 2 19 18 17 Page 5 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
135 13 Figure 7. JP MORGAN NOMINAL BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (2=, daily) 135 13 125 125 12 12 115 115 1 1 5 5 95 95 9 85 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 9 85 6. 5.5 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan. Figure 8. -YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS (percent) 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 Germany (.12) Japan (-.1) US (2.65) 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 2/7 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Haver Analytics. 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5 Page 6 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
1.7 Figure 9. EURO EXCHANGE RATE ($/Euro) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1. 1..9 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International..9 7 8 Figure. JAPAN: YEN/US DOLLAR (inverted scale) 7 8 9 9 1 1 12 12 13 13 14 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2-day moving average. Source: Bank of Japan. 14 Page 7 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
85 9 95 5 1 115 12 125 13 Figure 11. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2/8 16 15 14 13 12 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 * Nearby futures price. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. 14 Figure 12. US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION (million barrels per day, weekly, sa) 14 12 2/1 12 Total (11) 8 8 6 6 4 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. 4 Page 8 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
85 9 95 Figure 13. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 7 6 5 5 4 1 3 115 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) 2 12 125 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 13 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. 85 9 Figure 14. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 15 95 5 1 115 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) 5 12 125 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 13 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 9 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
8 9 1 12 13 Figure 15. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR & EXPECTED INFLATION JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) Expected Inflation in -Year TIPS* 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 3.4 3.2 3. 2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1 1..6.4.2. 2 19 18 * Yield spread between -year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Figure 16. GOLD PRICE & -YEAR TIPS YIELD (daily) -1.5-1. 17 16 15 14 13 12 -.5..5 1. 1 9 8 7 6 5 Gold Price* (dollars per ounce) (136.4) -Year TIPS Yield (percent, inverted scale) (3) 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 1.5 2. 2.5 3. 3.5 * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics. Page / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
43 35 27 Figure 17. FANG STOCKS, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION FANG Stocks* 2/8/19 Blue Angels Implied Market Cap Index (billion $)** x7 x6 x5 43 35 27 19 x4 19 1 1 Latest Forward P/E (46.5) 3 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 3 * FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet. ** Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. 12 Figure 18. FANG STOCKS % SHARE OF S&P 5 MARKET CAP AND FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES (percent) 12 8 Share of S&P 5 Capitalization (9.6) Earnings (3.3) Revenues (.4) 2/8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 * FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Market cap includes both classes of Alphabet. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 11 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
19 18 17 Figure 19. FORWARD P/E RATIO: S&P 5 and S&P 5 EX-FANG* 19 18 17 16 15 1/31 16 15 14 13 12 S&P 5 (15) S&P 5 ex-fang (14) 14 13 12 1. P/E Difference Attributable To FANG (1.1) 1/31 1..6.6.4.2 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22.4.2 * Price divided by consensus forward earnings forecast. FANG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet). Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv. Page 12 / February 12, 219 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
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