E-Commerce and Retail Property Markets: (When) Should We Panic? November 8th, 2012 Presented By: Alex Symes, Vice President RREEF Real Estate www.rreef.com For Conference Use Only
Consumers are lazy Questions consumers ask: What s the easiest way to buy something? How far do we have to go? Is the item big? Will a delivery package be safe? How do I know if I will like it? (Will it fit?) How can I find the cheapest price? Adoption Have I tried buying online? Does this system work? Is it safe? Source: RREEF Real Estate, As of November 2012. E-commerce and Retail Property Markets November 8, 2012 2
E-Commerce is approaching escape velocity E-Commerce as Share of All Retailing 1999-2020F 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Store-Oriented e-commerce Store-Oriented e-commerce, x-autos Forecast Source: US Census Bureau and RREEF Real Estate Research as of June 2012. E-commerce and Retail Property Markets November 8, 2012 3
Easy to ship items went online first Online Sales as Share of All Retail Sales - 2007 vs. 2011 18% 16% Still safe (for now) 2007 2011E Going, going, gone 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Building materials Food and beverage Health & personal care Motor vehicles + parts Furniture & furnishings Apparel & accessories Hobbies Electronics & appliances Source: US Census Bureau, RREEF Real Estate Research as of June 2012. E-commerce and Retail Property Markets November 8, 2012 4
The result: fewer and smaller stores Showroom model will gain adoption. Commodity retailing and secondary locations will suffer The Shrinking Office Products Store Office Depot Store Prototypes Before 2011 Average Warehouse Store: 27,000 SF 2011 Average Prototype: 15,000 18,000 SF 2011 Urban Format 5,000 SF Officemax Store Prototypes 2006 Average Prototype: 23,000 SF 2007 Average Prototype: 13,000 18,000 SF 2009 Ink Paper Scissors 1,500 2,000 SF Staples Dover Store Prototype Pre-2010 Prototype: 24,000 SF 2011 Prototype: 18,000 SF New Suburban 14,600 sf; New Urban 10,000 SF Source: RetailSails, company reports, RREEF Real Estate Research as of June 2012. E-commerce and Retail Property Markets November 8, 2012 5
For more information Bricks and Clicks: Rethinking Retail Real Estate in the E-commerce Era Nelson, Andrew and Ana Leon, RREEF Real Estate Research, Strategic Outlook #84, July 2012 E-commerce and Retail Property Markets November 8, 2012 6
Important Notes 2012. All rights reserved. RREEF Real Estate, part of RREEF Alternatives, the alternative investments business of Deutsche Asset Management, the asset management division of Deutsche Bank AG offers a range of real estate investment strategies, including: core and value-added and opportunistic real estate, real estate debt, and real estate and infrastructure securities. In the United States RREEF Real Estate relates to the asset management activities of RREEF America L.L.C., and Deutsche Investment Management Americas Inc.; in Germany: RREEF Investment GmbH, RREEF Management GmbH and RREEF Spezial Invest GmbH; in Australia: Deutsche Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 63 116 232 154) an Australian financial services license holder; in Japan: Deutsche Securities Inc. (For DSI, financial advisory (not investment advisory) and distribution services only); in Hong Kong: Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Hong Kong Branch (for RREEF Real Estate s direct real estate business), and Deutsche Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited (for RREEF Real Estate s real estate securities business); in Singapore: Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited (Company Reg. No. 198701485N); in the United Kingdom: Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (UK) Limited, Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (Global) Limited and Deutsche Asset Management (UK) Limited; in Italy: RREEF Fondimmobiliari SGR S.p.A.; and in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden: Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (UK) Limited and Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (Global) Limited; in addition to other regional entities in the Deutsche Bank Group. Key RREEF Real Estate research personnel are voting members of various RREEF Real Estate investment committees. Members of the investment committees vote with respect to underlying investments and/or transactions and certain other matters subjected to a vote of such investment committee. Additionally, research personnel receive, and may in the future receive incentive compensation based on the performance of a certain investment accounts and investment vehicles managed by RREEF Real Estate and its affiliates. This material was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. It is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, solicitation, the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. Neither Deutsche Bank AG nor any of its affiliates gives any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this document. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, no member of the Deutsche Bank Group, the Issuer or any officer, employee or associate of them accepts any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this document or for any resulting loss or damage whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise suffered by the recipient of this document or any other person. The views expressed in this document constitute Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates judgment at the time of issue and are subject to change. This document is only for professional investors. This document was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. No further distribution is allowed without prior written consent of the Issuer. As noted in the performance tables and charts included herein, investment management fees have not been deducted. In the event that such investment management fees and other fees were deducted, the performance of an account would be lower. For example, if an account appreciated by 10% a year for five years, the total annualized return for five years prior to deducting fees at the end of the five-year period would be 10%. If total account fees were 0.10% for each of the five years, the total annualized return of the account for five years at the end of the five-year period would be 9.89%. An investment in real estate involves a high degree of risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested, and is suitable only for sophisticated investors who can bear such losses. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall or rise. Any forecasts provided herein are based upon RREEF Real Estate s opinion of the market at this date and are subject to change dependent on the market. Past performance or any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets is not indicative of future performance. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Certain RREEF Real Estate investment strategies may not be available in every region or country for legal or other reasons, and information about these strategies is not directed to those investors residing or located in any such region or country. I-028411-1.0 E-commerce and Retail Property Markets November 8, 2012 7