1 The Current and Future Contribution of the Aboriginal Community to the Economy of Saskatchewan Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director Centre for the Study of Living Standards Saskatchewan Association of Health Organizations Career Pathing Pilot Project Symposium October 8-9, 2008 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
Outline 2 I. Background A. Historical and Current State of the Economy of Saskatchewan B. Forecast for the Economy of Saskatchewan II. Aboriginal People in Saskatchewan I. General Background II. Labour Market Outcomes based on Census Data III. Recent Labour MarketTrends in the Western Provinces III. Estimating the Effect of Increased Aboriginal Educational Attainment on the Saskatchewan Labour Market
10 Population of Saskatchewan as a Share of the National Population, 1901-2007 3 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Statistics Canada, Historical Statistics and Population Statistics. Between 1901 and 1971, data is available only for census years. Between censuses, population levels were interpolated linearly.
20,000 Average Annual Population Growth by Component in Saskatchewan, 1971-1979, 1980-1979, 1990-1999, 2000-2006 and 2007 Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Migration 4 15,000 Net International Migration Total Population Increase 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 1971-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2006 2007 Source: Statistics CanadaPopulation Statistics.
1981 = 100 160 Index of Employment in Canada and Saskatchewan 1981 = 100 5 140 120 100 80 60 40 Canada Saskatchewan 20 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
4.5 Employment in Saskatchewan as a Share of Employment in Canada, 1981-2007 6 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
1981 = 100 250 Index of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 chained) 1981 = 100 7 200 150 100 50 Canada Saskatchewan 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts
3.8 Real GDP in Saskatchewan as a Share of Real GDP in Canada ($2002 chained), 1981-2007 8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts
160.0 per cent Provincial GDP per worker as a percentage of national average, current dollars, 2006 9 140.0 144.2 132.2 120.0 100.0 80.0 105.0 100.0 98.1 93.7 87.3 86.4 82.9 81.3 72.3 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Alta. Nfld. Sask. Canada Ont. B.C. Man. Que. N.S. N.B. P.E.I. Source: Provincial Economic Accounts and Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada.
Labour Force Growth (15+) in Saskatchewan, 1977-2031 10 Thousands of persons 20 15 Projections (2008-2031) 10 5 0-5 -10 Actual data (1977-2007) -15 Source: Labour force estimates for 1976-2007 from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey; for 2008-2026 from Statistics Canada, Population Estimates and Projections. Note: Projected labour force estimates are calculated by multiplying projected population with the 2007 labour force participation rates for the 15-44 age group, the 45-64 age group and the 65 and over age group.
Employment Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009 11 3 2007 2008 2009 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1 0.5 0 Canada Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. Saskatchewan
Real GDP Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009 12 4 2007 2008 2009 3.7 3.8 3.5 3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.8 2 1.5 1.4 1 0.5 0 Canada Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. Saskatchewan
Unemployment Rate Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009 13 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 2007 2008 2009 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Canada Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. Saskatchewan
Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Canada, 2006 14 Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Canada, 2006 Proportion of the Canadian Population Proportion of the Aboriginal Population Share of the Aboriginal Population in Total Population Canada 100.0 100.0 3.8 Atlantic Canada 7.2 5.7 3.0 Quebec 23.8 9.2 1.5 Ontario 38.5 20.7 2.0 Western Canada 30.1 59.8 7.5 Manitoba 3.6 15.0 15.5 Saskatchewan 3.1 12.1 14.9 Alberta 10.4 16.1 5.8 British Columbia 13.0 16.7 4.8 Territories 0.3 4.5 52.8 Yukon Territory 0.1 0.6 25.1 Northwest Territories 0.1 1.8 50.3 Nunavut 0.1 2.1 85.0 Source: Census 2006 Tabulations
Distribution of Aboriginal Identity Population in Saskatchewan, in per cent, 2006 15 Off-Reserve First Nations, 30.8 Métis, 33.9 On-Reserve First Nations, 33.7 Other, 1.7 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.
16.0 14.0 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Industries, 2001 Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 16 12.0 11.3 10.0 9.7 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Public administration Health care and social assistance Retail trade Manufacturing Accommodation and food services Construction Educational services Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Transportation and warehousing Source: Census 2001
30.0 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Occupations, 2001 17 25.0 Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 5.3 3.4 0.0 Sales and service Trades, transport and equipment operators Business, finance and administration Social science, education, government service and religion Primary industry Management occupations Processing, manufacturing and utilities Health occupations Natural and applied sciences Art, culture, recreation and sport Source: Census 2001
140.0 Aboriginal Population Growth in Saskatchewan and Canada by Age, 2001-2017 18 120.0 Saskatchewan Canada 111.4 117.6 100.0 80.0 64.9 60.0 40.0 46.6 33.1 25.1 42.9 26.3 41.0 20.0 15.7 0.0 Total 0-14 15-24 25-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada, Product 91-547-XIE2005001
90 80 Employment Rates of Aboriginals and non-aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 19 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree
Employment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 20 120 Canada Saskatchewan 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.
Unemployment Rates of Aboriginals and non-aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 21 30 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.
500 450 400 350 300 Unemployment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 Canada Saskatchewan 22 250 200 150 100 50 0 Total Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. No certificate, diploma or degree Certificate, diploma or degree High school certificate or equivalent Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma University certificate, diploma or degree
60 High School non-completion Rate for Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Populations Aged 15+, Canada and Provinces, 2006 23 50 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 40 30 20 10 0 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.
60 50 High School non-completion Rates for Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Populations aged 15+, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and 2006 2001 2006 24 40 30 20 10 0 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census and 2001 Census. Note: The Census definitions of educational attainment were changed between the 2001 and 2006 Census so changes should be interpreted with caution. For more details, see http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/reference/infocensus/education.cfm
Proportion of the Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Population Aged 15+ With University Education*, Canada and Provinces, 2006 25 30 25 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. *Includes university certificate or diploma below bachelor level as well as universtity degrees.
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Proportion of Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Population (15+) With a University Degree, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and 2006 2001 2006 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 26 Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.
25.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population as a Share of Total Population (15+) in Saskatchewan, by Labour Force Status, 2007 27 21.8 20.0 15.0 10.0 8.0 7.4 6.7 5.0 0.0 Population Labour Force Employed Unemployed Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
80.0 70.0 60.0 Labour Market Outcomes of Off-Reserves Aboriginals in Saskatchewan, by Aboriginal Identity, 2007 First Nations Métis 57.4 70.1 62.9 28 50.0 48.4 40.0 30.0 20.0 15.7 10.0 10.3 0.0 Unemployment rate Participation rate Emp/pop ratio Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
100.0 Shares of Population (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, Off-Reserve Aboriginal by Aboriginal Identity, 2007 29 90.0 80.0 70.0 29.5 Completed post-secondary education High School Graduate or Some Post-Secondary Less than high school 37.4 60.0 29.9 50.0 29.8 40.0 30.0 20.0 40.6 32.8 10.0 0.0 First Nations Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Métis
Off-Reserve Aboriginal Participation Rate in Western Provinces, 2007 30 76.0 74.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) 74.2 72.4 72.0 70.0 69.7 69.8 70.2 68.0 67.3 66.0 65.6 64.4 65.1 66.3 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
Off-Reserve Aboriginal Unemployment Rate in Western Provinces, 2007 31 14.0 12.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) 12.5 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.7 8.0 7.7 6.0 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.3 4.1 2.0 0.0 Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
Off-Reserve Aboriginal Employment Rate in Western Provinces, 2007 32 80.0 70.0 60.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) 67.1 67.0 67.7 60.9 59.5 56.4 66.8 71.7 58.8 63.6 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
72 70 68 Recent Participation Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), 2004-2007 68.6 68.6 69.5 70.2 33 66 64 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 64.5 64.4 62 60 60.2 62.0 58 56 54 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
18 Recent Unemployment Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), 2004-2007 34 16 16.0 16.1 14.6 14 12.5 12 10 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 8 6 4 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.5 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
Pe r Cent 70 65 Recent Employment Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), 2004-2007 65.4 65.6 66.8 67.7 35 60 55 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 55.1 56.4 50.6 52.0 50 45 40 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
85.0 80.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Participation Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, 2004-2007 82.6 81.2 82.0 79.0 81.5 36 75.0 76.4 77.9 70.0 65.0 68.8 Less than high school High school graduate Completed post-secondary education 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 42.5 39.8 41.4 43.6 35.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
30.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Unemployment Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, 2004-2007 28.2 26.8 37 25.0 20.0 Less than high school High school graduate Completed post-secondary education 23.8 22.0 15.0 14.1 13.2 11.8 10.0 10.7 10.9 9.6 5.0 8.6 7.8 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
85.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Employment Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, 2004-2007 38 75.0 74.3 73.7 73.0 72.9 65.0 66.3 71.9 Less than high school 70.4 55.0 59.2 High school graduate Completed post-secondary education 45.0 35.0 30.5 29.1 31.6 34.0 25.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
39 Summary of Aboriginal Labour Force Projections, by Scenario and by Province, 2001-2017 Percentage Change in Aboriginal Labour Force, 2001-2017 Contribution to Total Labour Force Growth, 2001-2017, per cent Percentage of Labour Force in 2001 Percentage of Labour Force in 2017 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 - Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Atlantic 42.0 43.2 9.5 9.7 2.15 2.79 2.81 Quebec 10.3 15.3 0.7 1.1 1.08 1.03 1.08 Ontario 32.1 51.0 1.5 2.4 1.44 1.46 1.67 Manitoba 47.6 71.0 28.6 42.8 10.13 12.80 14.84 Saskatchewan 60.5 104.5 128.3 221.5 8.76 13.50 17.20 Alberta 54.9 77.5 7.6 10.7 4.12 4.91 5.63 British 3.82 3.76 3.91 Columbia 27.4 32.2 3.6 4.2 Territories 49.7 78.8 100.4 159.2 40.88 50.89 60.78 Canada 41.7 53.6 5.8 7.4 2.73 3.23 3.50
40 Summary of Aboriginal Employment Projections, by Scenario and by Province, 2001-2017 Percentage Change in Aboriginal Employment, 2001-2017 Contribution to the Employment Growth, per cent Percentage of Employment in 2001 Percentage of Employment in 2017 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 - Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Atlantic 42.0 72.4 7.9 13.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 Quebec 10.3 30.9 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 Ontario 32.1 55.3 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 Manitoba 47.6 101.7 24.7 52.7 8.7 11.0 15.1 Saskatchewan 60.5 152.7 105.6 266.4 7.2 11.1 17.5 Alberta 54.9 98.7 6.8 12.2 3.7 4.4 5.7 British Columbia 27.4 57.0 3.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.9 Territories 49.7 110.1 91.0 201.6 37.0 46.1 64.7 Canada 41.7 76.4 4.17 7.64 2.4 2.7 3.4
Thank You 41 Email: andrew.sharpe@csls.ca Website: www.csls.ca