Watch January 2019 Qld 4870 Qld 4870
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 OVERVIEW AT A GLANCE The economy is entering 2019 with improvements on the employment and labour market front. Tourism still remains at healthy levels but will need to be closely watched as the year progresses. Meanwhile the property market, despite strong underlying fundamentals, remains spooked by external malaise from the Banking Royal Commission and tighter lending rules. For these reasons, is yet to budge from a Steady State position. Employment Trend: 2.9% (December 2017 to December 2018) Unemployment Rate Trend: to 4.7% (as at December 2018) Job Advertisements Trend: 6.5% (July 2018 to December 2018) Airport Passenger Trend: 4.5% (December 2017 to December 2018) If this Watch bulletin has been forwarded to you from someone else and you would prefer to receive each issue direct, add your name and email address here it s simple and it s free! Please remember that Watch is now produced every second month, no longer monthly. The Fine Print: Information in this publication is based on an analysis of data from a number of sources, subjected to technical procedures of seasonal adjustment and trend analysis. Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the effects of normal seasonal variation from the data, so that comparisons can be made of data against their established seasonal patterns. Trend analysis smooths the seasonally adjusted estimates to provide a clearer picture of the underlying behaviour of the series over time. The trend estimates are derived by applying a 13- term Henderson-weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted data. It applies the same procedures used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in producing trends for national aggregates. Rick Carr Research Consultant Herron Todd White Phone: 07 4057 0200 Fax: 07 4051 3946 Email: rick.carr@htw.com.au No responsibility is accepted to any third party that may use or rely on the whole or any part of the content of this publication. Neither the whole nor any part of this publication or any reference thereto may be included in any published or photocopied documents, circular or statement, nor transmitted or published in part or full in any way, including electronically, without written approval of the form and context in which it may appear. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. The scheme does not apply within Tasmania. HTW Copyright 2019 Watch January 2019 2
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 EMPLOYMENT Persons Employed in the Region Number of Persons Employed (Log Scale) 130,000 Region Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (Actual and Trend Basis) 12% Actual Trend Region All Queensland 10% 120,000 8% 110,000 6% 4% 100,000 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data Trended employment figures for the Region (inclusive of, the Cassowary Coast, Douglas and the Tablelands) estimate that there were 120,200 persons employed during December 2018, up from the estimate of 119,800 persons employed during November 2018. The calculated employment trend has shown distinct growth during the latter half of 2018, and reached an all-time record high in December 2018. The trend employment increase over the period from December 2017 to December 2018 came in at 2.9%. N.B. The ABS Labour Force figures are estimates derived from a sample survey of only about 500 Region residents, and hence are subject to a potentially large margin of error. Neither the actual nor the trend estimates should be interpreted as precise values. 2% Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data The trend unemployment rate in the Region has been moving solidly downward over the last seven months. The Region had a seasonally adjusted trend unemployment rate of 4.7% as at December 2018, down from the trend estimates of 4.9% as at November 2018 and 6.1% as at December 2017. Importantly also, the Region s unemployment rate has moved considerably below the State average of 6.1%. However our concern is that much of the unemployment reduction has arisen from reduced labour force participation rather than job creation as such. N.B. To be counted as unemployed in the ABS Labour Force survey you need to not have a job and be actively seeking work. People who do not have a job and are not actively seeking work are not counted as unemployed, they are regarded as not in the labour force. Watch January 2019 3
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 EMPLOYMENT Job Ads Monthly Average Jobs Advertised 1,200 1,000 800 Actual Trend Herron Todd White does Property Valuations Herron Todd White has a wealth of experience in providing valuation services across the tourism, commercial, industrial, rural and residential property sectors. 600 400 From residential units and townhouses to specialist valuations, acquisitions and resumption, Herron Todd White team of specialist staff provides valuations across all property types. 200 0 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Source: HTW Analysis of Employment Websites The trend in the number of jobs being advertised on employment websites for the and Far North region is recovering from the slowdown experienced from its peak levels at the start of 2018, to increase by 6.5% over the five months from July to December 2018. Even so, the seasonally adjusted trend in the number of jobs being advertised in December 2018 is still 0.9% below what it was in December 2017. Watch January 2019 4
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 TOURISM Airport Passenger Numbers Monthly Passenger Arrivals + Departures (excl Transits) 450,000 Herron Todd White does Tourism Valuations 250,000 150,000 90,000 International Flights Domestic Flights Buying or selling a tourist property? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in all forms of tourism related property including pubs, roadhouses, hostels and caravan parks, and the entire accommodation spectrum from small motels and serviced apartments through to large scale resorts. 50,000 30,000 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Source: Derived from Airport data Passenger numbers trends at Airport have softened during the course of 2018 but nevertheless remain at healthy levels. Over the 12 months from December 2017 to December 2018 there has been an overall airport passenger trend reduction of 4.5%, consisting of a 3.7% trend passenger reduction on domestic flights and a 9.0% trend passenger reduction on international. However the outlook remains positive, with Airport set to benefit from additional flights during 2019. Silk Air will be increasing operations to/from Singapore from five times per week to daily in June 2019, while Qantas will be adding additional flights from Brisbane and reinstating daily flights between and Port Moresby in March 2019. Watch January 2019 5
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 PROPERTY Property Prices Median Sale Price (Log Scale) $450,000 $320,000 Houses Herron Todd White does Tax Depreciation Schedules Do you have an up-to-date tax depreciation schedule? $230,000 Units You could be missing out on thousands of dollars each year in allowable depreciation for your investment property. $165,000 Vacant Land Depreciation is an important part of maximising your investment returns from an income generating property. Contact us on 4057 0200 for an obligation-free quote. $120,000 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData Median property price trends have edged up for houses over the last six months, but have remained basically flat for units and increased noticeably for land on the back of very low volumes. However our view is that the majority of property prices are within plus or minus 5% of what they were twelve months ago, and that their overall trend remains static. The latest trend median prices, for properties sold in the month of December 2018, came in at $409,000 for a house, $221,000 for a unit, and $231,000 for a block of land. N.B. The median property price is the actual sale price of the middle-priced property from the list of properties sold each month. Movements in median prices do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property values. Watch January 2019 6
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 PROPERTY Rental Vacancies Percentage Vacancy 8% Property Rents Median Rent ($ per week) $480 Houses Units Total 6% $420 4BR House 'Balanced Market' Range $360 3BR House 4% $300 2BR House 3BR Flat 2BR Flat 2% $240 1BR Flat 0% Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Source: HTW Rentroll Survey Rental vacancy trends have tightened considerably over the last six months, led by shortages in the number of houses available for rent. As a result, rental vacancy rates continue to indicate very tight verging on stressed market conditions. Our latest survey results show that the trend rental vacancy rates for December 2018 stood at 1.3% for houses, 1.9% for units and 1.6% overall. Coupled with the low level of new rental supply being created due to very low levels of new housing construction and reduced levels of investor housing activity, rental market conditions are expected to stay tight and/or stressed for some time. $180 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Quarter ended Source: Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority Low rental vacancy rates have been placing mild upward pressure on rents in year-on-year terms consistently over the last six years. Over the twelve months to December 2018 the weighted average median rent has lifted from $405 to $415 per week for houses, and from $285 to $295 per week for units. The very low rental vacancy rates being observed in the current market are likely to maintain upward pressure on rents in coming quarters, but will not be able do so indefinitely for rental affordability reasons. N.B. The median rent is the middle-priced rental from the list of properties rented during the quarter. Movements in median rents do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property rents. Watch January 2019 7
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 PROPERTY Building Approvals Number of New Dwellings Approved in Urban Area 400 Houses Units 300 200 Total (Trend) Herron Todd White does Rural Valuations Selling the farm? Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in agribusiness from cane farms to cattle properties and banana plantations. 100 0 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Source: Derived from ABS data Building approval figures have retreated substantially from their April 2018 spike, reverting to a five year low over the last three months. The November 2018 trend is 67.5% below the April 2018 spike, and down by 6.0% compared to November 2017. Together they highlight the lacklustre state of the residential property market at present, as well as the competitive state of new house construction due to price pressures from house sales in the established housing market. Watch January 2019 8
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 SPECIAL TOPIC: PORT DOUGLAS Port Douglas Apartment Sales Number of Apartments Sold Median Price 750 --------Number of Sales-------- New Resale Median Price $400,000 Herron Todd White does Socio-Eco Economic Research 600 450 $320,000 $240,000 Herron Todd White carries out specialist project consulting assignments in all areas of socio-economic research, including demographic studies, statistical surveys, market research, strategy planning, cost benefit studies, and socio-economic impact assessment. 300 $160,000 Contact us today to discuss your requirements. 150 $80,000 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) Source: HTW Analysis of RPDATA The Port Douglas apartment market had been steadily rebuilding in both volume and price terms from the low point experienced in 2011, but that increase appears to have lost impetus during 2018. The current market is characterised by a slowdown in sales volumes combined with either static values or early signs of price decline. The market has been affected in particular by slowing real estate markets in southern states, especially Sydney and Melbourne, which generate the majority of purchasers. $0 Watch January 2019 9
Qld 4870 Qld 4870 PROPERTY National Property Clock Albury Echuca Hobart Sunshine Coast Approaching Peak of Market Gippsland Lismore NSW Mid Nth Coast Peak of Market Starting to Decline Bendigo Coffs Harbour Gold Coast Newcastle NSW Central Coast South East NSW Herron Todd White does Townsville Market Information Herron Todd White produces a quarterly publication of Townsville Market Information entitled Townsville in Focus. Like Watch, it is free of charge. Adelaide Ballarat Brisbane Canberra Emerald Launceston Mount Gambier SA Iron Triangle Adelaide Hills Barossa Valley Burnie-Devonport Dubbo Karratha Mildura Port Hedland Tamworth Rising Market Declining Market Illawarra Melbourne Perth Outer South West WA Sydney For further enquiries or to subscribe, contact townsville@htw.com.au or call (07) 4724 2000. Steady State/ Start of Recovery Approaching Bottom of Market Gladstone Hervey Bay Ipswich Mackay Townsville Bottom of Market Broome Geraldton Kalgoorlie Alice Springs Darwin Rockhampton Bundaberg Perth Inner Toowoomba Entries coloured dark blue indicate positional change from our last Watch Source: Residential Property Ratings for Houses Compiled by Herron Todd White, November 2018 Herron Todd White s National Property Clock is prepared each month based on the local market perceptions of its Australia-wide network of offices. Even though we have been expecting the market to experience greater impetus as a result of improving economic conditions, is persisting in a Steady State position. Watch January 2019 10