DAILY REPORT 9.2.211 Financial market analysis Unit Brokerage Unit Milica Travica 21-1672 Ljiljana Zipovski 21-3617 Srñan Maletić 21-1263 Snežana Spasojević 21-3621 Olivera Glisić 21-1314 FX sales Unit Custody Unit Darko Karanović 21-3624 Vitomir Marić 21-1315 Marija Prebanić 21-3626 Biljana Radosavljević 21-3622 Dragan Ignja 21-3627 21-3625 FX rate Domestic market International market Currency Previous Change Currency Previous Change EURRSD 13,3529 13,3915 -,4% EURUSD 1,3625 1,3583,31% USDRSD 75,7331 75,8725 -,18% EURCHF 1,3125 1,2978 1,13% CHFRSD 78,6312 79,5319-1,13% EURGBP,8479,8431,57% GBPRSD 121,7635 122,518 -,6% GBPUSD 1,669 1,611 -,25% Source: NBS USDJPY 82,36 82,33,4% EURRSD 18 15 12 99 96 93 9 87 84 81 78 75 EURUSD 1,65 1,6 1,55 1,5 1,45 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 Central bank announced that till 12:3 total amount of trading was 66,7 mil EUR (Central bank didn t sell or buy Euro) at average rate 13,3316 EUR and USD indicators for current day: Time Country Event Period Previous Forecast!! 8: Germany Trade balance December 12.B 13.1B MM and fixed income Key rate NBS 12,% Interbank market - Serbia Previous Change bps Source: NBS BEONIA 1,63 11,6-43, BELIBOR1M 13,11 13,11, T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M 13,62 13,69-7, Maturity Previous Source: Reuters 3 month 13,5% 13,9% 6 month 14,5% 15,% Major Key rates 12 month 14,5% 15,1% 18 month 12,94% 14,9% ECB 1,% 24 month 14,6% 14,9% FED,25% euro-linked SNB,25% 6 month 5,25% - Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance Interbank - World FX Savings Bond - Serbia Previous Change bps Price Yield EONIA,677%,347%,33 A211 98,52 4,98% EURIBOR1M,93%,91% -,7 A212 94,4 4,8% EURIBOR3M 1,79% 1,84% -,5 A213 9,5 4,42% EURIBOR6M 1,336% 1,339% -,3 A214 87,57 4,9% LIBOR1M (USD),264%,26375%,25 A215 82,5 4,7% LIBOR3M (USD),312%,312%, A216 8,12 4,26% LIBOR1M (CHF),13667%,13667%, Source: Belex LIBOR3M (CHF),17%,17%, Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day 1
Equity market SERBIA Previous Change YTD Belex 15 763,86 757,41,85% 17,25% Belex line 1.422,1 1.415,8,5% 1,87% Turnover 93.774.546 Din. 96.985 249.34.261 Din. 2.45.461-62,34% -62,29% Ratios P / B P / E Belex15,82 1,63 Source: Belex Belex15 8.1.8 8.5.8 8.9.8 8.1.9 8.5.9 8.9.9 8.1.1 8.5.1 8.9.1 8.1.11 Belex Line 4 4 3 3 8.1.8 8.5.8 8.9.8 8.1.9 8.5.9 8.9.9 8.1.1 8.5.1 8.9.1 8.1.11 3,5% 3,% 2,5% 2,% 1,5% 1,%,5%,% -,5% -1,% -1,5% Daily - members of Belex15 2,96% 3,8% 1,71% 1,31% 1,39% 1,1%,81%,62%,%,%,13%,16%,2% -1,% MTLC MTBN TGAS KMBN VZAS SJPT AGBN ENHL PRBN IMLK AIKB TIGR UNBN ALFA Serbia s public debt rose to 41.5 percent of gross domestic product in 21, the highest level in five years, according to figures released by the Finance Ministry. Public debt, which includes liabilities to both domestic and foreign creditors, to 12.17 billion euros, the most since 21, data released on the ministry s website today showed. Domestic debt totaled 4.9 billion euros ($6.7 billion) and foreign debt was 7.2 billion euros. () Serbia is providing 2.45 million euros ($3.4 million) of subsidies to Italian hosiery and underwear maker Pompea SpA and to Radijator AD, a Croatian-owned manufacturer of cast iron products, to expand their Serbian production and create hundreds of new jobs. As part of government efforts to boost employment, Deputy Prime Minister Mladjan Dinkic will sign agreements tomorrow with the two manufacturers in the northeastern town of Zrenjanin, where Pompea and Radijator are to add 3 and 191 jobs, respectively, the Economy Ministry said in an e-mailed statement. Pompea will develop a new 3 million-euro textile plant in Zrenjanin, expanding its range of products. Radijator will also add new facilities, and both companies stand to receive 5, euros support from the authorities for each new job created, according to the ministry. Pompea has invested more than 15 million euros in its Serbian facilities since opening them in 26. Radijator, which is investing 4.5 million euros in a new production line, was sold by the state to a group of Croatian companies in 27. () Serbia s January budget deficit widened 72 percent from a year earlier to 1.195 billion dinars ($15.8 million), the Ministry of Finance in Belgrade said on its website yesterday. The shortfall compares with.696 billion dinars in the same month last year, according to Bloomberg data. Revenue at 58.57 billion dinars and spending at 59.77 billion dinars were mostly "in line" with expectations, the ministry said. The country took a 3 billion-euro ($4.1 billion) stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The conditions included keeping the deficit within 4.8 percent of GDP in 211 and 4.1 percent in 211. The Washingtonbased lender s mission is scheduled to start its final review of Serbia s progress under the program this week. Serbia ended 21 with a full-year fiscal gap of 1.24 billion dinars or 4 percent of gross domestic product. The shortfall reached 4.4 percent when including local governments. () 2
Aerodrom Nikola Tesla Energoprojekt holding Naftna industrija Srbije Soja protein Tigar Izvor: Bloomberg Alfa Plam Komercijalna banka Metalac Izvor: Bloomberg Agrobanka AIK banka Beogradska industrija piva Bambi Credy banka Čačanska banka DIN prioritetne Dunav osiguranje Galenika Fitofarmacija Globos osiguranje Imlek Informatika Jedinstvo Sevojno Jubmes banka Komercijalna banka PB Lasta Napred GP Politika Privredna banka Progres Pupin Telecom Putevi Užice Razvojna banka Vojvodine Simpo Tehnogas Telefonija Univerzal banka Velefarm Veterinarski zavod Subotica Vino Župa Vital Voda Vrnjci Price Turnover in RSD A Listing Daily Weekly AERO 593 2.783.542-6,5% n/a n/a n/a n/a ENHL 998 3.66.664,81% 1,63% 1,9 1,65 1,2 NIIS 491 44.168.887,%,4% 2,5 n/a -74,3 SJPT 1.8 1.482.768,2% 1,72%,6 12,94 5,23 TIGR 773 12.368 1,71% 6,62%,38 n/a -6,21 B Listing ALFA 8.48 313.76 3,8% 5,88%,44 3,89 11,77 KMBN 3.5 6.1,13%,16%,92 13,86 6,91 MTLC 2.465 61.625-1,% -,8%,81 8,26 9,92 AGBN 9.85 3.724.85,62% 8,6%,4 n/a 7,95 AIKB 4.75 7.844.375 1,39% 4,65%,83 5,71 16,21 BIPB 33,% -2,91%,69 n/a -126,53 BMBI 2. 11.28.,1%,% 2,46 3,43 8,15 CYBN 1.9,%,%,28 n/a -44,75 CCNB 14.,% 4,27%,49 26,81 1,84 DINNPB 2.99 195.27-2,35% -,24% 1,14 6,38 17,37 DNOS 1.9,% -2,56% n/a n/a 1,36 FITO 7.242 898.8 -,11% 2,1% 1,24 5,28 25,94 GLOS 431,% -,69%,2 n/a 2,8 IMLK 2.162 1.759.868 1,31% 4,49% 2,11 22,68 9,46 INFM 2.947,%,%,5 135,9,4 JESV 6.32 176.456 4,4% 4,4% 1,18 3,78 32,1 JMBN 15.79,% -,84%,83 11,83 6,74 KMBNPB 1.,% -,69% n/a n/a 6,91 LSTA 53 14.84,% -,75%,41 2,5 22,3 NPRD 4.,%,%,4 1,23 39,62 PLTK 1 27.9-9,91% -13,79%,3 n/a -16,32 PRBN 698 132.62 1,1% 1,75%,7 n/a -12,35 PRGS 117,% 7,34%,13 461,9,3 PTLK 12,%,%,14 219,64,6 PUUE 1.1 4.4,1%,1%,77 5,43 14,74 MTBN 3.3 85.2,% 2,45%,59 89,66,59 SIMP 44 7.48,% -,9%,8 n/a -7,95 TGAS 6.8,% 2,26%,84 9,64 9,15 TLFN 1.2 27.6-3,54% -4,%,55 23,16 1,86 UNBN 5.354 21.416 2,96% 1,6%,5 14,6 3,35 VLFR 1. 21. -2,91% -2,91%,73 n/a -58,54 VLFR 635 2.785.745,16%,79%,5 4,24 8,63 VINZ 8.217 98.64-2,18% -5,68%,78 4,59 21,84 VITL 85,%,%,19 2,86,9 VDAV 3.9,%,%,45 n/a 4,11 P/BV Turnover in Daily Weekly Price P/BV P/E ROE RSD Price Turnover in RSD Continuous Trading Method Daily Weekly P/BV P/E P/E ROE ROE 2.333.584.55 Din. 9.448.874. Din. 8.62.66. Din. 7.682.274. Din. 1.328.37. Din. 1.482.46. Din. 26.171.48. Din. 2.514.3. Din. 6.529.826. Din. 34.9.56. Din. 3.499.9 Din. 7.866.32. Din. 63.631.9 Din. 1.935.112. Din. 6.945.14. Din. 492.44.1 Din. 3.186.48. Din. 45.795.4 Din. 19.678.42. Din. 541.679.2 Din. 1.92.339. Din. 3.687.213. Din. 373.51. Din. 811.48.8 Din. 1.373.116. Din. 65.246.2 Din. 1.739.994. Din. 63.951.7 Din. 134.636.8 Din. 983.223.3 Din. 3.391.92. Din. 466.268. Din. 7.49.274. Din. 695.34. Din. 3.38.293. Din. 1.559.95. Din. 1.435.224. Din. 1.63.6. Din. 649.346.4 Din. 447.669.3 Din. Napomene: (1) Promet=prosečna ponderisana cena x obim. (2) P/BV-price to book value je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i knjigovodstvene vrednosti. (3) P/E-price to earnings je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i zarade po akciji (EPS). (4) ROE-return on equity je racio koji predstavlja odnos neto dobiti i akcijskog kapitala. (5) Mcaptržišna kapitalizacija=tržišna cena akcije x broj akcija 3
REGION Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Crobex Hrvatska 2.39,29 2.311,7 SBITOP Slovenija 844,15 844,15 SOFIX Bugarska 417,13 47,46 BET Rumunija 5.729,52 5.716,12 DJ Stoxx Balkan 5 Balkan 644,85 642,82 -,8% 9,4%,% -,73% 2,37% 15,12%,23% 8,75%,32% 8,27% CROBEX SBITOP 6 3 4 3 crobex sbi2 2.1.8 2.5.8 2.9.8 2.1.9 2.5.9 2.9.9 2.1.1 2.5.1 2.9.1 2.1.11 3.1.8 3.5.8 3.9.8 3.1.9 3.5.9 3.9.9 3.1.1 3.5.1 3.9.1 3.1.11 21 SOFIX 1 BET 17 13 sofix 8 bet-c 6 9 4 1 3.1.8 3.5.8 3.9.8 3.1.9 3.5.9 3.9.9 3.1.1 3.5.1 3.9.1 3.1.11 DJ Stoxx Balkan 5 145 125 15 85 65 45 dj balkan 25 5.11.27 5.1.28 5.3.28 5.5.28 5.7.28 5.9.28 5.11.28 5.1.29 5.3.29 5.5.29 5.7.29 5.9.29 5.11.29 5.1.21 5.3.21 5.5.21 5.7.21 5.9.21 5.11.21 5.1.211 Romania will meet investors in the coming weeks to discuss the planned sale of at least 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) of bonds, International Monetary Fund Mission Chief to Romania Jeffrey Franks said. The government is well advanced with efforts to sell bonds on international markets in the first quarter as part of a plan to offer 7 billion euros of medium-term notes over the next three years. The IMF completed its final review of Romania s 2 billion-euro bailout program yesterday. Romania delayed the sale of euro-denominated bonds, initially scheduled for the fourth quarter, when it was forced to reopen the search for a legal adviser after law firms challenged the original tender. The government plans to turn to international markets twice this year to reduce borrowing costs and help keep the budget deficit at 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, the level agreed with international lenders. Poland sold 1 million euros of bonds on Jan. 13, with the debt priced to yield 15 basis points more than the benchmark mid-swap rate. The Czech Republic plans to sell as much as 2 billion euros of bonds as early as May, Deputy Finance Minister Jan Gregor said in a Jan. 14 interview.() Croatia on Tuesday sold one-year Treasury bills worth 2 million euro ($27.1 million), above its target offer of 1 million euro, the finance ministry said on Tuesday. In a separate auction, the finance ministry also sold one-year, six-month and three-month Treasury bills worth a combined 53 million kuna ($91.9 million/67.8 million euro), way above its target offer of 3 million kuna. The euro-denominated T-bills yielded 2.9%, down from 2.95% in the previous auction held on February 1. The kunadenominated one-year government securities yielded 4.%, und from the previous auction also held on February 1. Yields on the six-month T-bills fell to 3.45% from 3.5%, while yields on the three-month government securities remained und at 2.45%. () 4
WORLD Index Country / Region Previous Change YTD Dow Jones Industrial S&P NASDAQ FTSE Dow Jones Stoxx 6 Nikkei 225 12.233,15 1.324,57 2.797,5 Engleska 6.91,33 EU 288,56 Japan 1.635,98 12.161,63 1.319,5 2.783,99 6.51,3 288,74 1.592,4,59% 5,66%,42% 5,32%,47% 5,43%,67% 3,24% -,6% 4,62%,41% 3,98% Dow Jones Industrial S&P 14 16 1 14 dow jones 12 s&p 8 8 6 2.1.8 2.5.8 2.9.8 2.1.9 2.5.9 2.9.9 2.1.1 2.5.1 2.9.1 2.1.11 6 3.1.8 3.5.8 3.9.8 3.1.9 3.5.9 3.9.9 3.1.1 3.5.1 3.9.1 3.1.11 NASDAQ Composite FTSE 7 28 24 nasdaq 6 dax 16 4 12 3.1.8 3.5.8 3.9.8 3.1.9 3.5.9 3.9.9 3.1.1 3.5.1 3.9.1 3.1.11 3 2.1.8 2.5.8 2.9.8 2.1.9 2.5.9 2.9.9 2.1.1 2.5.1 2.9.1 2.1.11 DJ Stoxx 6 Nikkei 225 37 32 14 1 27 22 nikkei 1 \ dj stoxx 17 8 12 2.1.8 2.5.8 2.9.8 2.1.9 2.5.9 2.9.9 2.1.1 2.5.1 2.9.1 2.1.11 6 4.1.8 4.5.8 4.9.8 4.1.9 4.5.9 4.9.9 4.1.1 4.5.1 4.9.1 4.1.11 U.S. stocks rose, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average the longest winning streak since July, as retail sales rebounded and as McDonald s Corp. rallied after reporting higher-than-estimated monthly results. McDonald s jumped 2.6 percent. J.C. Penney Co. and Macy s Inc. gained at least 3.2 percent as the International Council of Shopping Centers said weekly retail sales snapped four straight declines. Banks had the biggest gain in the Standard & Poor s Index within 24 groups, rallying 1.7 percent as RBC Capital Markets said regulators may soon enable higher dividends. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes gained 2.7 percent as executives and economists predicted a bounce in demand. U.S. stocks rose yesterday as takeover announcements and improving profits bolstered optimism, extending the S&P s advance from a 12-year low in 29 to 95 percent. Almost three- quarters of the companies in the S&P that reported quarterly results since Jan. 1 have topped analysts projections for per-share profit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. () Most European stocks rose as better-than-estimated results from ArcelorMittal to Swedbank AB and Swatch Group AG outweighed China s third increase in interest rates in four months. ArcelorMittal, the world s biggest steelmaker, and Swedbank, Sweden s largest bank by branches, gained at least 2 percent. Swatch rallied 5.8 percent after the world s biggest watchmaker said profit increased 42 percent in 21. UBS AG surged 4.3 percent as Switzerland s largest bank attracted net new money from wealthy clients for a second straight quarter. National benchmark indexes gained in 12 of the 18 western European markets. Germany s DAX Index advanced.5 percent and the U.K. s FTSE 1 rose.7 percent, while France s CAC climbed.4 percent. China raised its key interest rates for the third time since mid-october today. The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 6.6 percent from 5.81 percent and the deposit rate will climb to 3 percent from 2.75 percent, effective today, the People s Bank of China said. () Navedene informacije date su u svrhu opšteg informisanja i ne mogu biti zamena za finansijski savet niti se njihovim objavljivanjem stvara bilo kakva obveza za Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd ne prihvata odgovornost za bilo kakvu štetu nastalu upotrebom informacija iz ovog materijala. niti garantuje za njihovu tačnost. Zabranjeno je dalje distribuiranje i umnožavanje ovog materijala ili nekih njegovih delova bez prethodnog pisanog pristanka Banca Intesa ad Beograd. 5