ELECTION FORUM Sydney, 7 June 2016
A Campaign of 5 Reforms to address housing affordability, generate new affordable housing and halve homelessness
A National Housing Strategy to deliver: 1. Dedicated new supply stream of social and affordable housing 2. Tax reform for housing investment 3. Targets for halving homelessness by 2025 4. Increase Commonwealth Rent Assistance 5. Improve housing options for people with disability beyond the NDIS
Whose Campaign? With great support from philanthropists, welfare organisations, CHPs, individuals A digital campaign aiming to make housing affordability a tier 1 issue through this election campaign. Data from National Shelter projects and Saul Eslake bettercallsaul.com.au
Starting or startling data shows renters worst off 3.00 Housing CPI Sydney 2.50 Capital Gains Tax Change GST Introduced Chnages to SMSF invest in Property Visa Foreign Investors New Home Owners scheme Population NSW Introduced FHO Grant Interest Rate Australia 2.00 Median Rent Sydney INDEX 1.50 1.00 loans to buy houses Australia 0.50 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 New House NSW From National Shelter unpublished report, 2016
Social Housing starts by years Social Housing in Decline so dedicated new supply required 25 000s % 20 15 10 5 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Financial years ended 30 th June Public sector dwelling completions (left scale) Public sector as a % of total completions (right scale) Up until the mid-1970s, the public sector made a significant direct contribution to boosting housing supply: since then its contribution has steadily diminished Note: figures for 2014-15 re for the first three quarters of the year at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: Advisory Council for Intergovernment Relations, Australian Housing Policy and Intergovernment Relations, Discussion Paper No. 14 (1982), Appendix G; ABS, Building Activity, Australia (8752.0), March quarter 2015. 0
MAINSTREAM SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK COMMUNITY HOUSING STOCK, BY STATE 450 '000 80 '000 400 70 350 60 300 50 250 40 200 150 30 100 20 50 10 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30 June Public housing Community housing 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30 June NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT The Community Housing Sector is increasingly the place to grow social and affordable housing note data excludes SOMIH housing.
Reforming the NAHA and attracting private finance at scale to CHPs. Options include but not limited to A National Affordable Rental Incentive Tax Credit type program Cash grants Capital fund to be used in concert with NARI Bond raising with a financing broker/intermediary Leveraging outcomes from states Land, state tax reform, inclusionary zoning, value uplift capture and return Land and capital from NfP sector Using existing property in need of renewal to negotiate outcomes with CHPs. e.g. disability, youth, homelessness
Why Tax Reform? 78 % 76 74 72 Vic Tas 70 68 66 64 WA SA NSW Qld 62 1994 95 1995 96 1996 97 1997 98 1999 00 2000 01 2002 03 2003 04 2005 06 2007 08 2009 10 2011 12 2013 14 Rates of home ownership are in decline, except in Tas, worst in Qld and NSW Source: ABS, Household Income and Wealth, Australia, 2013-14; Household Income and Income Distribution, Australia, 2011-12 and previous issues (cat. no. 6523.0).
Investors out-compete owner occupiers FINANCE COMMITMENTS FOR THE PURCHASE OF HOUSING, BY TYPE OF BORROWER 16 A$bn per month 14 12 Owner-occupiers 10 8 6 Investors 4 2 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Source: ABS, Housing Finance, Australia (cat. no. 5609.0).
Individuals reporting gross rental income Loss-making property investors as pc of total 16 % of total individuals 72.5 % of taxpayers reporting gross rent 15 70.0 67.5 14 65.0 13 62.5 60.0 12 57.5 11 55.0 52.5 10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Financial years ended 30 June 50.0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Financial years ended 30 June Interest deductions claimed by property investors Net rental income 30 $bn 2 $bn 25 0 20-2 15-4 10-6 5-8 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Financial years ended 30 June Source: Australian Taxation Office, Taxation Statistics, 2012-13. -10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Financial years ended 30 June Also have increasing losses deducted from tax
Neg gearing investors new dwelling vs existing
Sources supporting negative gearing argue it keeps rents down Proportion of low-income rental households spending >30% of income on housing 50 % 45 40 35 30 25 20 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14
Rental affordability in Sydney in Dec 15
Cost to Budget The number of negatively geared individuals doubled in the 10 years after the capital gains tax discount was introduced in 1999, and they now cost the Commonwealth budget at least $4 billion a year. Moving to reduce the capital gains tax discount to 25% could raise $3.7bn a year for the budget with limited political pain. Source: Grattan Institute https://grattan.edu.au/news/reducing-the-capital-gains-tax-discount-is-aneasy-win-why-is-the-government-ignoring-it/ ALP tax reform package will improve the budget bottom line by $32.1 billion over ten years. Source: http://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing
Halve Homelessness by 2025: There are currently 105,237 people in Australia who are homeless.
The plan? Integrate homelessness within NAHA but keep funding lines discrete Early intervention and address the drivers of homelessness Poverty Domestic and family violence Leaving care and custody Close the Gap Address security in the private rental market Make the NPAH permanent and expanded Extend and expand Reconnect and other pilots
Reform CRA because rents in Sydney went south after 2006 Source: National Shelter, CSB & SGS Economics and Planning, 2016
Need to address housing for people with disability: Inclusion, Choice & Control Estimates of the shortfall in housing after year 10 of NDIS between 35,000 and 50,000 (DHF (2016) Disability Housing Futures Working Group: Final Report, February 2016. (Brisbane: NAHC)) Need to have states target new supply of housing for people with disability States need to encourage or legislate for universal design standards in new dwellings in private sector Investigate a key role for CHPs in delivering new housing for people with disability Reduce and eliminate unecessary use of group homes Pursue inclusionary planning practice for public space
The End
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